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400,000 Canberrans before the next election

By 14 January 2014 13

Andrew Barr has released new estimates of the ACT Population growth.

While still expanding it’s slower than last projected which is going to have some big bad effects on the local economy and anyone who’s leveraged to take advantage of the old figures:

New official population projections for the ACT are being issued today. The ACT Government projections indicate that Canberra’s population will reach 400,000 persons by 2017; 500,000 by 2033; and 600,000 by mid century.

The 2013 projections incorporate results from the 2011 Census, and take into account assumptions about future patterns of fertility, mortality, and interstate and overseas migration.

The new projections assume a downturn in net interstate migration in the short term, reflecting anticipated job losses in the Commonwealth public sector. Lower population growth will have flow on effects for the ACT economy, including through slower economic growth, and lower rates of land release and capital spending. Migration growth is anticipated to return to trend towards the end of this decade.

The projections for the coming decades show higher levels of growth than previously projected in 2011, due to higher overseas migration and more births than projected, with our growth over the past five years averaging 6,486 persons per annum or 1.8 per cent.

The ACT Government figures anticipate slower population growth than those issued recently by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The ABS projections do not include any slowdown because of public service contractions, and assume a higher migration rate than ACT Government projections.

Canberra is expected to experience significant population ageing over the next 50 years, with people aged 65 and over set to more than double from 11 per cent of the population in 2012 to 22.5 per cent in 2062. Our workforce (15-64 year olds) will also continue to decline as a share of the ACT population and our median age will rise from 34 up to 41 by 2062.

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13 Responses to 400,000 Canberrans before the next election
#1
Martlark9:58 am, 14 Jan 14

Good news! More infill is required to house these welcome guests and to revitalize dying inner suburbs.

#2
unclemeat10:50 am, 14 Jan 14

Is / will there really be enough business in Canberra to accommodate the jobs demand for a growth of ~40,000 people in the next three years?

#3
Antagonist10:59 am, 14 Jan 14

So cutting the public service is not going to have the dire consequences our Labor leaders would have us believe?

#4
howeph11:47 am, 14 Jan 14

Antagonist said :

So cutting the public service is not going to have the dire consequences our Labor leaders would have us believe?

FTFA: “The new projections assume a downturn in net interstate migration in the short term, reflecting anticipated job losses in the Commonwealth public sector. Lower population growth will have flow on effects for the ACT economy, including through slower economic growth, and lower rates of land release and capital spending.”

#5
howeph12:02 pm, 14 Jan 14

unclemeat said :

Is / will there really be enough business in Canberra to accommodate the jobs demand for a growth of ~40,000 people in the next three years?

Yes. Population growth creates economic growth.

All those extra people building houses, paying rates, consuming goods and services in the ACT grows the ACT economy and the jobs along with it.

#6
switch12:29 pm, 14 Jan 14

How many Taswegians by the next election? Can we have 12 senators too, please?

#7
HiddenDragon2:06 pm, 14 Jan 14

switch said :

How many Taswegians by the next election? Can we have 12 senators too, please?

Excellent point! – maybe we could share, and each have seven, and enjoy the nail-biting, down-to-the-wire struggle for the last seat.

#8
watto232:29 pm, 14 Jan 14

switch said :

How many Taswegians by the next election? Can we have 12 senators too, please?

Yeah the senate and our lack of representation on a national level is actually a problem. More seats would mean more concern from the federal government over the ACT.
I understand why the Senate is equal amongst the states, but the two territories deserve better than the 2 senators we get. I’d say it should be 6 with full terms. 3 each election.

#9
IrishPete4:19 pm, 14 Jan 14

Time to put some Bromide in the water supply.

IP

#10
Antagonist9:12 pm, 14 Jan 14

howeph said :

Antagonist said :

So cutting the public service is not going to have the dire consequences our Labor leaders would have us believe?

FTFA: “The new projections assume a downturn in net interstate migration in the short term, reflecting anticipated job losses in the Commonwealth public sector. Lower population growth will have flow on effects for the ACT economy, including through slower economic growth, and lower rates of land release and capital spending.”

Thank you. So instead of phrasing it as a question, it should have been a statement of fact. The public service cuts WILL NOT have the dire consequences our Labor leaders would have us believe. Unless of course Katy has been fudging numbers again ;)

#11
gooterz11:10 pm, 14 Jan 14

Shouldn’t the population go up 9 months after the 40,000 get bored and have nothing to do?

#12
howeph9:11 am, 15 Jan 14

Antagonist said :

Thank you. So instead of phrasing it as a question, it should have been a statement of fact. The public service cuts WILL NOT have the dire consequences our Labor leaders would have us believe. Unless of course Katy has been fudging numbers again ;)

What the?

We are not mind readers.

You need to be specific and explain your point. In particular which predicted consequences are you talking about and how are those predictions contradicted by the original post.

#13
switch9:23 am, 15 Jan 14

gooterz said :

Shouldn’t the population go up 9 months after the 40,000 get bored and have nothing to do?

They’ll need light fittings to swing on.

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