While still expanding it’s slower than last projected which is going to have some big bad effects on the local economy and anyone who’s leveraged to take advantage of the old figures:
New official population projections for the ACT are being issued today. The ACT Government projections indicate that Canberra’s population will reach 400,000 persons by 2017; 500,000 by 2033; and 600,000 by mid century.
The 2013 projections incorporate results from the 2011 Census, and take into account assumptions about future patterns of fertility, mortality, and interstate and overseas migration.
The new projections assume a downturn in net interstate migration in the short term, reflecting anticipated job losses in the Commonwealth public sector. Lower population growth will have flow on effects for the ACT economy, including through slower economic growth, and lower rates of land release and capital spending. Migration growth is anticipated to return to trend towards the end of this decade.
The projections for the coming decades show higher levels of growth than previously projected in 2011, due to higher overseas migration and more births than projected, with our growth over the past five years averaging 6,486 persons per annum or 1.8 per cent.
The ACT Government figures anticipate slower population growth than those issued recently by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The ABS projections do not include any slowdown because of public service contractions, and assume a higher migration rate than ACT Government projections.
Canberra is expected to experience significant population ageing over the next 50 years, with people aged 65 and over set to more than double from 11 per cent of the population in 2012 to 22.5 per cent in 2062. Our workforce (15-64 year olds) will also continue to decline as a share of the ACT population and our median age will rise from 34 up to 41 by 2062.