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A fine mess Zed leaves the Liberals

By 5 February 2013 14

While Zed gets about the business of knifing the generally well regarded Senator Humphries, and Brendan Smyth and Jeremy Hanson set to on the leadership front, there is an even grislier prospect for the party.

Zed’s replacement in Brindabella is either going to be the ancient hero of Tharwa, Val Jeffery, who surely does not have 8 years of politics left in him, or Nicole Lawder, who seems like a fantastic person, but will not make an appealing poster child for an election.

Zed’s not leaving the Assembly for some months (all the better to keep the party under his thumb), so we’ll have to wait a while to find out.

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14 Responses to A fine mess Zed leaves the Liberals
#1
HiddenDragon12:42 pm, 05 Feb 13

Tony Abbott’s public support for Gary Humphries (wouldn’t have picked TA as a pot-plant enthusiast) makes this all the more interesting. Lucky for Zed that this will not – so far as we know – be a “captain’s pick”. Whatever the outcome of the Senate pre-selection, this manoeuvre makes it all the more likely that Katy, Andrew and Simon can look forward to growing old, gracefully and untroubled, in their ministerial offices.

#2
Alderney12:43 pm, 05 Feb 13

Zed doesn’t need to stay in the Assembly to keep the Party under this thumb. He has the lay party numbers shored up well and good.

In fact, if you wanted to take over the Canberra Liberals you’d just need 20 people in each of the three electoate branches to always attend and vote your desired way at branch meetings (maybe twice a year), and to all turn up to Party get-togethers (maybe another two times a year) and you’d own them.

It’s called branch stacking, and Zed has been working at it for years.

#3
bleebleeblee1:52 pm, 05 Feb 13

I think Nicole would be a great replacement – can’t see why she would be any less appealing than anyone else who might contest?

#4
johnboy2:10 pm, 05 Feb 13

Without wanting to be unkind… Blon Fel-Fotch Passameer-Day Slitheen

#5
c_c™2:38 pm, 05 Feb 13

HiddenDragon said :

Tony Abbott’s public support for Gary Humphries (wouldn’t have picked TA as a pot-plant enthusiast) makes this all the more interesting. Lucky for Zed that this will not – so far as we know – be a “captain’s pick”.

True, but you’d have to think Abbott wouldn’t be backing the loser so publicly, so he must think Humphries has the numbers. Strange move by Zed, predict he’ll fall flat on his face and end up running some obscure business lobby group instead.

#6
Tetranitrate3:28 pm, 05 Feb 13

c_c™ said :

HiddenDragon said :

Tony Abbott’s public support for Gary Humphries (wouldn’t have picked TA as a pot-plant enthusiast) makes this all the more interesting. Lucky for Zed that this will not – so far as we know – be a “captain’s pick”.

True, but you’d have to think Abbott wouldn’t be backing the loser so publicly, so he must think Humphries has the numbers. Strange move by Zed, predict he’ll fall flat on his face and end up running some obscure business lobby group instead.

Uh yeah, look – Zed wouldn’t have challenged like this if he didn’t already have the numbers sewn up. Humphries is way, way weaker than an outside observer would think, he’d have basically no support among the younger people – it’d be a few staffers and oldies in the branches against the majority of the young libs, plus equivalent friends/family/staffers/hangers on Zed’s side, plus any more explicit stacks.

Alderney said :

Zed doesn’t need to stay in the Assembly to keep the Party under this thumb. He has the lay party numbers shored up well and good.

In fact, if you wanted to take over the Canberra Liberals you’d just need 20 people in each of the three electorate branches to always attend and vote your desired way at branch meetings (maybe twice a year), and to all turn up to Party get-togethers (maybe another two times a year) and you’d own them.

It’s called branch stacking, and Zed has been working at it for years.

Yup, absolutely. Though frankly he probably does have the support of most of the ‘real’ rank and file members too.

Humphries has only himself to blame from this, way back in 2007 & 2008 there were actually decent numbers of people who were very much onside, but he never lifted a finger, in management committee or elsewhere as they were gradually purged. (ie: supporters, at least against a challenge like this would have included to some extent Smyth/Pratt/Burke and their staff, the Finlays and their hangers on, some of the Young libs and whatnot.)
Mulchay imploding in late 07 and Gary Kent hilariously failing in Molonglo after leaving the chairmanship in 2008 set back the clock a bit and probably saved him from a challenge in 2010, but all of that also meant Zed became leader in the assembly.
Gary’s been on borrowed time for quite a while now. He’d have basically no support among the younger rank and file and it was only a matter of time.
…and frankly, he’s a nobody. He’ll never be a minister and his most notable act in nearly 10 years in the senate was crossing the floor over the civil unions legislation.

Disclosure: I’m (obviously) a former member.

#7
HiddenDragon9:55 pm, 05 Feb 13

Tetranitrate said :

c_c™ said :

HiddenDragon said :

Tony Abbott’s public support for Gary Humphries (wouldn’t have picked TA as a pot-plant enthusiast) makes this all the more interesting. Lucky for Zed that this will not – so far as we know – be a “captain’s pick”.

True, but you’d have to think Abbott wouldn’t be backing the loser so publicly, so he must think Humphries has the numbers. Strange move by Zed, predict he’ll fall flat on his face and end up running some obscure business lobby group instead.

Uh yeah, look – Zed wouldn’t have challenged like this if he didn’t already have the numbers sewn up. Humphries is way, way weaker than an outside observer would think, he’d have basically no support among the younger people – it’d be a few staffers and oldies in the branches against the majority of the young libs, plus equivalent friends/family/staffers/hangers on Zed’s side, plus any more explicit stacks.

Alderney said :

Zed doesn’t need to stay in the Assembly to keep the Party under this thumb. He has the lay party numbers shored up well and good.

In fact, if you wanted to take over the Canberra Liberals you’d just need 20 people in each of the three electorate branches to always attend and vote your desired way at branch meetings (maybe twice a year), and to all turn up to Party get-togethers (maybe another two times a year) and you’d own them.

It’s called branch stacking, and Zed has been working at it for years.

Yup, absolutely. Though frankly he probably does have the support of most of the ‘real’ rank and file members too.

Humphries has only himself to blame from this, way back in 2007 & 2008 there were actually decent numbers of people who were very much onside, but he never lifted a finger, in management committee or elsewhere as they were gradually purged. (ie: supporters, at least against a challenge like this would have included to some extent Smyth/Pratt/Burke and their staff, the Finlays and their hangers on, some of the Young libs and whatnot.)
Mulchay imploding in late 07 and Gary Kent hilariously failing in Molonglo after leaving the chairmanship in 2008 set back the clock a bit and probably saved him from a challenge in 2010, but all of that also meant Zed became leader in the assembly.
Gary’s been on borrowed time for quite a while now. He’d have basically no support among the younger rank and file and it was only a matter of time.
…and frankly, he’s a nobody. He’ll never be a minister and his most notable act in nearly 10 years in the senate was crossing the floor over the civil unions legislation.

Disclosure: I’m (obviously) a former member.

So is Abbott’s support for the doomed Humphries real loyalty, or pretend loyalty, and whatever it is, why make it so public rather than just mouthing the usual platitudes about pre-selections being up to the relevant Branch (particularly so soon after the Peris episode)?

#8
c_c™11:45 pm, 05 Feb 13

Tetranitrate said :

Uh yeah, look – Zed wouldn’t have challenged like this if he didn’t already have the numbers sewn up. Humphries is way, way weaker than an outside observer would think, he’d have basically no support among the younger people – it’d be a few staffers and oldies in the branches against the majority of the young libs, plus equivalent friends/family/staffers/hangers on Zed’s side, plus any more explicit stacks.

Zed doesn’t have any judgement, if he did, he’d be in government now. He gave away the election weeks before the polls even opened by closing so many options.

#9
KB19717:52 am, 06 Feb 13

johnboy said :

Without wanting to be unkind… Blon Fel-Fotch Passameer-Day Slitheen

Well, that is actually unkind. Nicole is a newcomer to the sport so let her prove herself before you pass judgment JB ;)

With Val? Well I grew up in the country and I actually don’t mind some of the stuff he says, its a “no beat about the bush” attitude that I like. It might be refreshing from the usual suspects we have been listening to for the last 10 years.

#10
tonkatuff829:58 am, 06 Feb 13

johnboy said :

Without wanting to be unkind… Blon Fel-Fotch Passameer-Day Slitheen

Outstanding JB!

#11
Madam Cholet11:17 am, 06 Feb 13

KB1971 said :

johnboy said :

Without wanting to be unkind… Blon Fel-Fotch Passameer-Day Slitheen

Well, that is actually unkind. Nicole is a newcomer to the sport so let her prove herself before you pass judgment JB ;)

With Val? Well I grew up in the country and I actually don’t mind some of the stuff he says, its a “no beat about the bush” attitude that I like. It might be refreshing from the usual suspects we have been listening to for the last 10 years.

He’s barking mad. Should fit in nicely.

Not sure about that comment about Nicole Lawder. Bit personal.

#12
sepi11:54 am, 06 Feb 13

but what has zed ever actually done??

It seems like his main skills are gathering support and making contacts and doing public statements. Perhaps he would be a good figurehead with some good staff doing all the actual work, but I just cant’ take him seriously.

#13
Tetranitrate12:15 pm, 06 Feb 13

sepi said :

but what has zed ever actually done??

It seems like his main skills are gathering support and making contacts and doing public statements. Perhaps he would be a good figurehead with some good staff doing all the actual work, but I just cant’ take him seriously.

Indeed. Of course those skills are exactly the ones you need to win pre-selections.

#14
poetix12:49 pm, 06 Feb 13

Masquara has gone strangely quiet…

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