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Antony Green punches Canberra’s Numbers

By johnboy - 11 June 2013 48

The ABC’s Antony Green has posted his take on what will happen at the election, should Julia Gillard make it to September 14.

Lovers of variety will be disappointed to hear Antony doesn’t see any change coming from 3 Labor, One Lib.

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48 Responses to
Antony Green punches Canberra’s Numbers
1
MERC600 6:25 pm
11 Jun 13
#

Thought as much. 1 Lib, 3 Labor. Some commentators will say, ”Well, Canberra is a Labor town. … John Howard once remarked that this city looks like Killara, votes like Cessnock.

I wonder what Antony has to say about our neighbour Monaro, the “bellweather” seat.

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2
chewy14 7:43 pm
11 Jun 13
#

Black Caviar would be considered long odds at most of her races compared to the surety of Canberra’s seats.

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3
gungsuperstar 7:59 pm
11 Jun 13
#

I’m surprised we haven’t seen more of the Greens promoting themselves in Canberra. In the past that second senate seat hasn’t been far off winnable. And with strong preference support likely from the ALP to try and prevent tory-control of the Senate, I would’ve thought this was the year for them to have a red hot go.

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4
Pork Hunt 7:59 pm
11 Jun 13
#

MERC600 said :

Thought as much. 1 Lib, 3 Labor. Some commentators will say, ”Well, Canberra is a Labor town. … John Howard once remarked that this city looks like Killara, votes like Cessnock.

I wonder what Antony has to say about our neighbour Monaro, the “bellweather” seat.

Baaa?

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5
caf 8:23 pm
11 Jun 13
#

Ben Raue at the Tally Room has put up a detailed look at every seat and all the Senate races, including maps with booth-by-booth results from the last election.

For the ACT, there’s Fraser, Canberra and the ACT Senate race.

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6
c_c™ 8:29 pm
11 Jun 13
#

gungsuperstar said :

I’m surprised we haven’t seen more of the Greens promoting themselves in Canberra. In the past that second senate seat hasn’t been far off winnable. And with strong preference support likely from the ALP to try and prevent tory-control of the Senate, I would’ve thought this was the year for them to have a red hot go.

Not quite that simple. I think a lot of people are buying into a narrative that goes; Labor gets Greens elected, and the Greens are close by a hair in the ACT.

On the first point, in metro seats it’s the Liberals who have been bumping up the Greens, their preferences got Bandt over the line, and with the change this election, they’ll undo him. so just in general, keep that in mind.

But, for the ACT…

In terms of the Senate in the ACT, Greens were behind by over 25,000 votes after preference distributions in 2010.

They never had a chance. There were only 15,800 surplus votes in total to be distributed!

Of those, only 554 went to the Greens from Labor in the first round. Which when you consider even Humphries managed to pick up 182 Labor preferences, is tiny.

For the Greens to win, they would have to grow their primary vote by about 40% to get in on their own right, or grow it by a still large fraction, and hope that Labor doesn’t run a second Senate candidate who ends up sucking most of the Labor surplus up.

Remember after the first round of preferences, there’s only a few hundred votes in play if Labor runs a second candidate, if they don’t, there’s many thousands.

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7
HenryBG 8:34 pm
11 Jun 13
#

gungsuperstar said :

I’m surprised we haven’t seen more of the Greens promoting themselves in Canberra. In the past that second senate seat hasn’t been far off winnable. And with strong preference support likely from the ALP to try and prevent tory-control of the Senate, I would’ve thought this was the year for them to have a red hot go.

If you’re going to seriously have a crack at Gary Humphries’ seat, you’d have to be doing it with somebody who has a name other than, “Sheikh”.
Don’t forget, the *vast* majority of people either –
– don’t give a flying fark about elections
or
– are under no illusion their vote will in any way determine the outcome
or
– both.

Therefore, the majority of votes are cast semi-randomly with name-recognition and other mostly very shallow non-political factors “informing” the decision. Which is something the media rely on when they comprehensively salt their coverage of all issues with lies and misdirection.

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8
HenryBG 8:44 pm
11 Jun 13
#

c_c™ said :

gungsuperstar said :

For the Greens to win, they would have to grow their primary vote by about 40% to get in on their own right, or grow it by a still large fraction, and hope that Labor doesn’t run a second Senate candidate who ends up sucking most of the Labor surplus up.

So…let’s think about all the things the Greens have done over the last 5 years that might improve their vote
…..blocked the ETS….shafted Rudd….caused a change in PM to a right-wing union-connected lawyer……(who really isn’t that clever)….and then spent virtually all their parliamentary hours pushing fringe issues unconnected from anything that currently matters to any wider demography.

Nope, I’m sorry, the last election ripped shreds out the Greens vote, the upcoming one isn’t going to help them much.
At some stage they may learn to ditch the idiot leftie politics and go back to environmental conservatism, which may not happen until they chuck out the unrepentant ex-stalinists who yet lurk in their midst.

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9
Pork Hunt 8:59 pm
11 Jun 13
#

HenryBG said :

c_c™ said :

gungsuperstar said :

For the Greens to win, they would have to grow their primary vote by about 40% to get in on their own right, or grow it by a still large fraction, and hope that Labor doesn’t run a second Senate candidate who ends up sucking most of the Labor surplus up.

So…let’s think about all the things the Greens have done over the last 5 years that might improve their vote
…..blocked the ETS….shafted Rudd….caused a change in PM to a right-wing union-connected lawyer……(who really isn’t that clever)….and then spent virtually all their parliamentary hours pushing fringe issues unconnected from anything that currently matters to any wider demography.

Nope, I’m sorry, the last election ripped shreds out the Greens vote, the upcoming one isn’t going to help them much.
At some stage they may learn to ditch the idiot leftie politics and go back to environmental conservatism, which may not happen until they chuck out the unrepentant ex-stalinists who yet lurk in their midst.

That’s it. I’m convinced Mr G and HenryBG are the one and the same. The misogyny is there from both, just need a rant about plastic bags from Henry and it’s settled…

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10
dungfungus 9:52 pm
11 Jun 13
#

Welcome back HenryBG. I’ve been holding “Fort Abuse” for you while you have been absent.

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11
breda 9:56 pm
11 Jun 13
#

I remember reading an analysis by Antony Green (I think) a few years ago about why Canberra, despite its steadily growing population, would not get a third HoR seat under the current arrangements. It is because other parts of the country’s population is growing at a faster rate, so we keep getting pushed back in the queue.

The consequence is (given only 4 senators as well) that it would take a cataclysmic shift in voting patterns to change the current configuration. On current trends, we could exceed the population of Tasmania and still have only 2 HoR (they have 5) and 4 (they have 12) senators, and the political composition would not change.

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12
breda 9:58 pm
11 Jun 13
#

Oops, 2 senators to their 12. Sorry.

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13
LSWCHP 10:49 pm
11 Jun 13
#

MERC600 said :

I wonder what Antony has to say about our neighbour Monaro, the “bellweather” seat.

Warning…pedantry follows…

Coming from a farming family, I believe the correct term is “bellwether”. It refers to placing a bell around the neck of a wether so that other sheep will follow the bell. Hence, a bellwether seat refers to a seat that leads other seats, in the manner of a castrated sheep leading a bunch of other sheep around, sometimes to their doom. At the moment this seems to me to be remarkably apposite terminology.

End of pedantry…

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14
HiddenDragon 10:50 pm
11 Jun 13
#

That first graph in Antony’s post says it all, and makes clear why a Coalition government would not be going out of its way to do Canberra any favours.

I wonder if Canberra is one of the few (if not the only) place where Labor’s vote might actually fall if Rudd is re-installed as PM(?)

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15
poetix 11:07 pm
11 Jun 13
#

dungfungus said :

Welcome back HenryBG. I’ve been holding “Fort Abuse” for you while you have been absent.

He’s not real, you know.

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