10 December 2010

The 9 December floods

10 December 2010 | johnboy

[First filed: Dec 9, 2010 @ 8:31]

[The back of Riverside Plaza this morning]

The NSW SES is very worried that the Captains Flat Dam is going to fail amid concerns about flooding in Queanbeyan.

The dam failure warning system for Captains Flat Dam earlier this morning triggered a red alert. This has been downgraded and it is now issued as an Amber Alert. The dam is not expected to fail at this level but if the water keeps rising, a Red Alert could be triggered and major flooding of Captains Flat could result.

UPDATE: In the ACT the ESA is also expressing concern about Oaks Estate.

If you have pictures, as always, send them in to images@the-riotact.com .

FURTHER UPDATE: Pretty soon it won’t matter how many spillways they open at Scrivener Dam:

UPDATE 3: Dave has sent in pictures from Captains Flat with this note:

the crimes are in captains flat ATM “recreating” an event that happened earlier today. Where a local man caught a large yellowbelly on the bowling green. I was there when it happened and wondered if you would like (to publish) the actual pictures? also have some of the river and water over the dam wall.

Pictures in the slideshow.

UPDATE 4: ACTPol_Traffic on Twitter is reporting Scrivener Dam has now been closed to traffic.

UPDATE 5: The National Capital Authority is giving notice that they’re considering opening the 5th gate of Scrivener this afternoon for the first time since 1976. They ask the public to stay away.

UPDATE 6: And the first joke has arrived, see below the fold!

UPDATE 7: Queanbeyan and Palerang have now been declared natural disaster areas.

UPDATE 8: The RSPCA is appealing for donations to help displaced Queanbeyan pet owners.

UPDATE 9: ACTEW are justifying why water from their Googong dam is raging through Queanbeyan.

UPDATE 10: TAMS have produced a very handy road closure guide.

UPDATE 11: Over 100 pictures in the slideshow! Keep them coming to images@the-riotact.com

UPDATE 12: Queanbeyan now trending number 4 on Twitter nationally.

UPDATE 13: TAMS have a new road closures list out.

UPDATE 14: Queanbeyan City Council’s website makes no mention at all of the town split asunder by floodwaters. (as at 16:30, 9 December 2010)

(Slideshow below, thanks to Ricky, Trina, Aussielyn, Peter, Kirrily, Amelia, Alexander, Snarky, UrbanAdventure, Davecpd, Dave, motleychick, ozchick, jake, James, Che and Hank)

Joke sent in by OzChick:

PLEASE DIG DEEP PEOPLE

Torrential rain hit Queanbeyan in the early hours of Wednesday 8th December 2010.

Victims were seen wandering around aimlessly, flannies soaked, woollen trackies sagging, muttering ‘Faaackinell’.

Flood waters devastated the area causing approximately $30 worth of damage, $10 of that at Karabar alone.

Three areas of historic burnt out cars were disturbed. Many locals were woken well before their Centrelink cheques arrived.

The Queanbeyan Age reported that hundreds of residents were confused and bewildered and were still trying to come to terms with the fact that something interesting had happened in Queanbeyan .

One resident – Tracy Maree Sharon Britney Madonna Smith, a 15-year-old Mother of 5 said ‘It was such a shock, my little daughter Chardonnay-Mercedes came running in to my bedroom crying. My youngest two
Joachim and River slept through it all.’

Apparently, looting, muggings and car crime were unaffected and carried on as normal with a 95.7 % saturation rate .

The Australian Red Cross has so far managed to ship 4,000 crates of Bacardi-Breezers to the area to help the stricken locals particularly those at Jerrabomberra also known as Lower Tralee or East Machonachie.

Rescue workers are still searching through the rubble and have found large quantities of personal belongings, including Health Care Cards, Jewellery from Kmart and Bone China from Big W.

HOW CAN YOU HELP?

This appeal is to raise money for food and clothing parcels for those unfortunate enough to be caught up in this disaster.

Clothing is most sought after – items most needed include: flannelette Shirts, tight blue jeans or spandex, singlets (blue & white) white sport socks, Ugg boots and any other items usually sold in Priceline or The Reject Shop.

Food parcels may be harder to come by, but are needed all the same.

Required foodstuffs urgently needed include: Microwave meals, Baked Beans, Ice cream, Chips, Fizzy drinks.

Donations of $15.00 will be taken to buy a packet of winny blue

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Antagonist12:21 pm 11 Dec 10

The a priori probability of AA winning 10 games in a row is indeed only 12.5% … It is, after all, much easier to win 10 games in a row starting from a position of having already won 9 in a row!

And therein lies the analogy. I publicly concede defeat on the dodgy maths behind it though. Until I read this response, I actually thought ‘a priori’ was something from a Dan Brown novel. Be proud that you taught a bogan something new.

For the Two-up players, any decision to bet would be based on mathematical expectation (which has nothing to do with results). Since the game of Two-Up itself has a mathematical expectation of precisely zero, I leave it for the chumps to enjoy on ANZAC Day.

Holden Caulfield3:23 pm 10 Dec 10

Here’s a couple of videos from yesterday afternoon’s entertainment at Scrivener Dam…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnrGEAcKjjo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HiI8FsGfuYE

OzChick1:46 pm 10 Dec 10

Target Queabeyan has re-opened for business today. http://www.target.com.au/enewsletters/101210/101210-Queanbeyan.htm

Maybe that means other Riverside Plaza retailers are also re-opening.

caf1:42 pm 10 Dec 10

Antagonist, you are wrong. The chance of AA winning in Game 1 is 81.21%; the chance of it winning in Game 2 is 81.21%; the chance of it winning in Game 10 is 81.21%. Each game is an independent event. The cards have no memory of the previous hands.

The a priori probability of AA winning 10 games in a row is indeed only 12.5% – but after it has won 9 games in a row, the probability of winning the tenth is still 81.21%.

It is, after all, much easier to win 10 games in a row starting from a position of having already won 9 in a row!

Mothy1:42 pm 10 Dec 10

Antagonist said :

It is in the math. I will use an example from Texas Holdem Poker to illustrate ….

Therefore, if you have gone 9 years without flood on a 10 year cycle, then you ARE Mathematically more likely to have a flood on the 10th year.

To play with your analogy – you assume that the deck does not get shuffled after every hand, and this is what’s driving those arguing against you crazy.

Gungahlin Al12:45 pm 10 Dec 10

The NCA are quoted in today’s paper as having to shell out $25,000 per day to have the LBG flood gates open. So does anyone understand why this would be?

androo12:42 pm 10 Dec 10

carnardly said :

I saw a chap interviewed on the late news last night. Obviously he was a used car dealer that got flooded out. He was whinging and moaning that someone should have rung him before it happened so he had a chance to move some of the cars…

and if nothing else, if the only major dam between you and a significant rainfall event is already overflowing, you’re going to get very wet. Do they really need someone to hold their hand and explain it to them in simple language?

bjnetzone11:26 am 10 Dec 10

I saw a chap interviewed on the late news last night. Obviously he was a used car dealer that got flooded out. He was whinging and moaning that someone should have rung him before it happened so he had a chance to move some of the cars…

Mate – the coppers or whoever are trying to maintain law and order. The flood warnings were all over the news in the 24 hours beforehand. Why should someone else have to tell you? There were hundreds of other houses under threat too.

Couldn’t believe it!

Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? “Someone should have called me before bushfires went raging through and burnt my house down, even though I could see and smell smoke two weeks beforehand, and it was all over the tele, I still had no idea it was coming because I’ve had my head up my ar*e for too long”…

Happy to tolerate the stupid Queanbehole jokes today – actually more happy that we didn’t have to pull bodies out of the Molonglo. Well done Q!

Acronym11:13 am 10 Dec 10

Sorry, as troll-sniffer said, not djk.

Acronym11:10 am 10 Dec 10

Antogonist, yes the 50% comment is bs, but so is your maths. It’s ok, it’s the most common mistake people make. Probability doesn’t remember what happened previously. Think of the coin toss. Its a 50% chance to land heads. If it landed tails in your last toss, it doesn’t make it more likely to land heads the next time, its still a 50% chance. It will average out over the long term, but you can still land 5 tails in a row without it influencing the next toss. Your maths just says from the starting point of when you calculate, there is a probability of 87.45% of a flood having occured in those 10 years. Not a chance of 87.45% in that particular year. Probability doesn’t work like that.

But as djk said, the appropriate prediction model should take into account more than just length of time since a flood. Weather is a little bit more complicated than texas hold em.

creative_canberran12:15 am 10 Dec 10

Brucer said :

Anyone know if all 5 Scrivener gates actually opened?

A bit hard to say. I went to look but the access to Scrivener Dam on both sides had been closed. NCA website says it’s “to allow the dam operators free flowing access of the area”. On the radio some spokesperson for road closures said it was “because of the spray from the outflow”. Seriously.. if the spray was so much a hazard they’d have to close all the roads every time it rains. As for “operator access” I just don’t believe that dam operators are constantly driving in and out of the place, or that sight seers could possibly be that much of an obstruction to any that do. This is nothing more than a “locked gate” exclusionist mentality in action. Something is happening that people might be interested in and want to go and see.. so they close it off on some fabricated “safety” grounds. Apparently the desire to witness a one in 30 years event is a shameful thing to be frowned upon. My rant!

Jivrashia said :

Jivrashia said :

Braddon Boy said :

My real gripe is with Jivrashia who claims intimate knowledge of probability theory (whether it be floods or a card game, the maths makes no difference) but clearly has little idea.

Cotter Dam and the river corridor is closed again. Based on reports I’ve ready, it has nothing to do with flooding. Rather, the dam wall itself may not be all that stable anymore.

Stop putting words in my mouth. Intimate my arse. Your words, not mine.
Stop speculating what I might or might not do at a casino. That is none of your business.

You are still wrong.

If an incident occurs, and it is know to occur once every X number of years, then as the years progress without that incident the chance of it occurring in future years increases simply because the previous years are omitted from the calculation for the future years.

Ultimately the fact is IT’S GOING TO HAPPEN.

“We haven’t had incident Y happen in years… it’s gonna happen soon. Could be this year, or next.”

Simple, isn’t it?

We’re not talking about an event known to occur _exactly_ once in every X number of years. We’re talking approximately X number of years on _average_.

I would have expectd this modelling to take a Poisson Distribution:
“In probability theory and statistics, the Poisson distribution (pronounced [pwas??]) (or Poisson law of small numbers[1]) is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a number of events occurring in a fixed period of time if these events occur with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event. (The Poisson distribution can also be used for the number of events in other specified intervals such as distance, area or volume.)”

See the important bits in that description? – known _average_ rate and independant of the time since the last event.

georgesgenitals8:27 pm 09 Dec 10

Skidbladnir said :

If anyone else is going to tangle moist panties over children who are now going to face harsh realities like a Christmas without bourbon due to their present washing away:
By all means, build on the flood plain or just above the living memory high water mark if you want to.
But do not expect me to share all of my sympathy with you when you scream about how its a terrible or tragic suprise whenever a flood comes tearing through. Its only a tragic event in the literal Greek sense of the word, you brought it on yourself by making the mistake not asking why anybody would possibly turn down the bargain of Queanbeyan’s low areas.

They knew it was a flood plain, and they knew or failed to find out that there was a precedent of regular flooding on that plain, and yet they still chose to stay there.
If the property was insured for the replacement cost, they’re on a path to recovery.
If they can’t afford insurance for their property’s level of risk, they really couldn’t afford the property itself in the long-term.
If no insurer offered a policy, there’s a bloody good reason for that, it was deemed a near-certainty of wipeout.
If their expectation was that a the major dam just minutes up the road would never fill, or that a major utilities and infrastructre company building a spillway was not a sign to brace for an uncertain future, they’re living in ignorance.
If they only lived there because it was cheapest thing in the area (ie: nobody else wanted it), they are clearly getting the quality of location that they paid for, and whatever the Council thought that residents doing due diligence would expect to receive, when Council zoned it fit for construction back in the 80s, immediately after they were allowed to.

Yes, the poor man pays twice as much due to the unfairness of being poor, but life is hardly ever fair.
Those of us above the flood plain will stay in our smug cloud of schadenfreude for now.

Interestingly, the exact same sentiments could be expressed towards those who lost their homes in the Canberra bushfires.

Braddon Boy5:06 pm 09 Dec 10

Erg0, you’ll be surprised how reliable the modelling of frequent events, 1, 2, 5 yr ARI, can be. Although, the higher the numbers, the greater the uncertainty. For a 1 in 5000 year, we have little idea.

But you’re mixing up two very important aspects of flood prediction. We are not cretin what a 1 in 20 yr storm/flood actually is, due to the limited data on which we are basing our models, I’ll give you that. However, we have a band of confidence, for example… “we are 66% sure a 1 in 20 yr flood is between 90 and 110 cubic meters per second, let’s call it 100”. And people will go away and use 100 as the “1 in 20 yr” event to work with. By the way, in this example, saying a 1 in 20 yr flood means that on average the flood will be “greater than” 100 every 20 years.

But by definition, a 1 in 20 year event has 5% chance of happening in any given year. Over the long term, thousands or millions of years let’s say, it will average out that there has been one every 20 years. This is purely a mathematical concept and applies to everything, not just floods. This is a fact, it cannot up for discussion and is not be based on opinion.

My real gripe is with Jivrashia who claims intimate knowledge of probability theory (whether it be floods or a card game, the maths makes no difference) but clearly has little idea.

By the way, Queanbeyan is due to flood quite regularly; everyone knows this and the information is freely available. As a result, the market should dictate that the property prices should be lower. The owners should then save the difference in the property price to “insure” themselves when the inevitable happens. Floods are different to fires, although people living next to bush should somewhat expect them too, because there is absolutely nothing you can do about flooding, expect not live in flood prone areas. Why are my taxes given to people that willingly live in floodplains and then complain when, surprise surprise, it floods.

pptvb3:24 pm 09 Dec 10

PLEASE DIG DEEP PEOPLE

Torrential rain hit Queanbeyan in the early hours of Wednesday 8th
December 2010.

Victims were seen wandering around aimlessly, flannies soaked,
woollen trackies sagging, muttering ‘Faaackinell’.

Flood waters devastated the area causing approximately $30 worth of
damage, $10 of that at Karabar alone.

Three areas of historic burnt out cars were disturbed. Many locals
were woken well before their Centrelink cheques arrived.

The Queanbeyan Age reported that hundreds of residents were confused
and bewildered and were still trying to come to terms with the fact that
something interesting had happened in Queanbeyan .

One resident – Tracy Maree Sharon Britney Madonna Smith, a
15-year-old Mother of 5 said ‘It was such a shock, my little
daughter Chardonnay-Mercedes came running in to my bedroom crying.
My youngest two
Joachim and River slept through it all.’

Apparently, looting, muggings and car crime were unaffected and
carried on as normal with a 95.7 % saturation rate .

The Australian Red Cross has so far managed to ship 4,000 crates of
Bacardi-Breezers to the area to help the stricken locals
particularly those at Jerrabomberra also known as Lower Tralee or East Machonachie.

Rescue workers are still searching through the rubble and have found
large quantities of personal belongings, including Health Care
Cards, Jewellery from Kmart and Bone China from Big W.

HOW CAN YOU HELP?

This appeal is to raise money for food and clothing parcels for
those unfortunate enough to be caught up in this disaster.

Clothing is most sought after – items most needed include:
flannelette Shirts, tight blue jeans or spandex, singlets (blue &
white) white sport
socks, Ugg boots and any other items usually sold in Priceline or
The Reject Shop.

Food parcels may be harder to come by, but are needed all the same.

Required foodstuffs urgently needed include: Microwave meals, Baked
Beans, Ice cream, Chips, Fizzy drinks.

Donations of $15.00 will be taken to buy a packet of winny blue

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