10 June 2009

H1N1 Hits Florey Primary

| johnboy
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Word reaches us that Florey Primary has a confirmed case of the H1N1 Human Swine Flu in the kindergarten unit.

Kids in that three class unit all sent home for three days pending the outcome of tests.

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GnT said :

sepi said :

The other scary thing about swine flu is the potential for it to go the way of Spanish flu in 1918 – mild at first, then suddenly mutates into something much worse, that kills thousands of people.

Although, I heard an expert say most people who died in 1918 actually died of bacterial pneumonia. We now have very effective antibiotics which we didn’t have then, so it’s unlikely we’ll ever have a death toll from flu as bad as 1918.

there have been several deaths from pneumonia, of family and friends in the past couple of years for me. They all started with the flu, then got pneumonia, and died. a couple were elderly, true, but a cousin was only 28.

It isn’t a case of the best antibiotics, pneumonia also has the ability to mutate. Hygienic consistencies will assist in reducing the effects of these bugs, but it is highly unlikely that we won’t see a large part of the population effected by the flu.

It just means that for those of us that don’t get it, we will be looking after those that do if they are a part of our family. Work will be effected. I am being positive – i hope i get it soon rather than later, and can have enough time to recover.

sepi said :

The other scary thing about swine flu is the potential for it to go the way of Spanish flu in 1918 – mild at first, then suddenly mutates into something much worse, that kills thousands of people.

Although, I heard an expert say most people who died in 1918 actually died of bacterial pneumonia. We now have very effective antibiotics which we didn’t have then, so it’s unlikely we’ll ever have a death toll from flu as bad as 1918.

ant said :

If not, I’ll attend a Swine Flu Party so as to get it while it’s benign, and get immunity.

You may then infect others who turn out to be preconditioned with something and end up in hospital. Sure, swine flu hasn’t been causing too much harm to people yet, but it’s a matter of time until people with a weak heart or other serious conditions catch it, and then it’s very serious to them (although it may not be to you). After a swine flu party, you potentially risk infecting such people. Hell, even the attendants of the party may not know of preconditions they may have and the risk they are exposing themselves to.

If you don’t understand what I mean, there’s also a famous South Park episode that shows how flawed the reasoning of a Swine Flu (i.e. measles in the episode) party really is.

The other scary thing about swine flu is the potential for it to go the way of Spanish flu in 1918 – mild at first, then suddenly mutates into something much worse, that kills thousands of people.

I”m in two minds about the idea of catching it now while it is mild, in order to get some immunity in case it turns really nasty.

I heard an immunologist saying it won’t neccessarily give you immunity – but how can they know that really. Also even as it stands the swine flu will kill some people, especially those with asthma.

But from a govt perspective, they just want to slow the spread of it, as the less people who have it, the longer they have to get a vaccine. Also the less people who have it, the less people who can potentially mutate it into something worse. So you can see why they are advising not to go out and catch mild swine flu on purpose.

Woody Mann-Caruso9:29 am 11 Jun 09

And I apologise for my snark. Late night, sick kid, not an excuse, just a factor.

Woody Mann-Caruso said :

Did that ‘pick your point apart’ enough?

Yes it did. I retract my previous post, It made sense in my mind at the time, I was obviously less with it then i thought last night

Woody Mann-Caruso11:49 pm 10 Jun 09

@cantanga – are you seriously claiming that the strain of influenzavirus A under discussion is the same strain as the ’77 and ’18 outbreaks? But hey, go argue with the CDC:

“Because this is a new virus, most people will have little or no immunity against it, and illness may be more severe and widespread as a result. In addition, currently there is no vaccine to protect against this novel H1N1 virus.”

Or the US Department of Health and Human Services, which notes that the best we have at the moment is a “candidate” vaccine.

Or you could just be lazy and settle for Wikipedia:

“In the 2009 swine flu outbreak, the virus isolated from patients in the United States was found to be made up of genetic elements from four different flu viruses – North American Mexican influenza, North American avian influenza, human influenza, and swine influenza virus typically found in Asia and Europe – “an unusually mongrelised mix of genetic sequences.” This new strain appears to be a result of reassortment of human influenza and swine influenza viruses, in all four different strains of subtype H1N1…Preliminary genetic characterization found that the hemagglutinin (HA) gene was similar to that of swine flu viruses present in U.S. pigs since 1999, but the neuraminidase (NA) and matrix protein (M) genes resembled versions present in European swine flu isolates. The six genes from American swine flu are themselves mixtures of swine flu, bird flu, and human flu viruses… viruses with this genetic makeup had not previously been found to be circulating in humans or pigs…”

Or you could go tell me which of the other points was wrong, then take it up with WHO.

But, no, you’ve got a text that’s five years old and an apparently incomplete understanding of what a flu strain actually is. “Hurf durf, well _actually_, it’s all H1N1, we just haven’t seen this for a while, hurf durf.”

Did that ‘pick your point apart’ enough? Anything you want to ‘rush out and buy’, like a vowel or a clue?

Fiona said :

awww, bring it southside, people!

+1.

7 days off work, and have to be away from other people?
I want!!

awww, bring it southside, people!

Woody Mann-Caruso said :

– it’s new, so nobody’s immune to it and we have no vaccines

False:- Swine Flu (or H1N1 to be precise as it can obviously be caught by various organisims, swine just happens to be it’s reservoir) has been around for a long time. This is also not the first time that humans have caught it. There was an outbreak in 1977 and in that instance was firstly isolated in the USSR. There was also an outbreak in 1918. Further more just to pick your point apart, according to mims et.al. 2004 “Medical Microbiology” (pg.230 just in case you want to rush out and buy a copy to check it) there are vaccines for H1N1. However due the changing nature of the vaccine and annual review by authorities as to which influenza strain they target each year(usually based on the previous years strain) it is unlikely that the current vaccine contains H1N1.

A workmate spent the weekend in Melbourne, and has a kid in Pucka, so i expect to get Swine Flu shortly. If not, I’ll attend a Swine Flu Party so as to get it while it’s benign, and get immunity. The Spanish flu circled the globe and became something like Ebola and an evil spirit that turned peoples’ own immune systems against them (and mine’s rather good), and I don’t want Razorback flu. I’d rather Piglet flu which is what it seems to be, currently.

Woody Mann-Caruso9:12 pm 10 Jun 09

Nobody’s worried about this because it’s given a small number of people the sniffles. They’re worried about it because:

– it’s new, so nobody’s immune to it and we have no vaccines
– it has a high clinical attack rate (for example, it hit 33% of a school group of 1,996 people)
– it has a short incubation period (3-4 days)
– all of that means there’s potential for a large population to be infected in a short period of time (for example, the first US case was confirmed on 15 April; by 3 June, there were confirmed cases in all fifty states)
– it tends to affect young people (range of age medians is just 16-25), so it has the potential to damage the workforce and have a lasting socioeconomic impact

There are ‘good’ things about it too. It doesn’t seem to evolve any faster than normal flu. Many people who get it don’t require hospitalisation. And then there are the things nobody’s sure about yet. For example, it seems to give some pregnant women a proper kicking.

The point is that if it decides to turn nasty, the situation will go to hell in a hand basket pronto. It’s a very big ‘if’, but the possible consequences are even bigger, so there’s nothing wrong with being alert about it. I suppose there’s nothing wrong with the “ooh, look at me, I’m more blase about the swine flu than you, ice ice baby” approach either, because I doubt it discriminates against posers.

Hearing it from my nurse wife, this flu is as harmless, if not less harmless than a regular flu, just more infectious.

Old, young and infirm die of colds and flu all the time, it just does not have as much media attention because its run of the mill.

I actually visited Melbourne over the weekend. Had plenty of scotch and port, as well as the usual beers (pints of course). I’m feeling as fit as a fiddle! So, this evening, I shall adjourn to the Pot Belly and avoid those meddling kids from Zone 3 next door by threatening them and their germs with spirits.

Clown Killer5:15 pm 10 Jun 09

I suggest we all drink plenty of scotch and the like.

I agree PM. In fact I blame alcopops for the whole thing. Think about it – it seems to mainly affect people under 30 years of age – the exact same demographic who don’t know how to make their own bourbon and coke!

The number of cases has increased to seventeen. http://www.act.gov.au/

I suggest we all drink plenty of scotch and the like. You see, that’s why kids are more vulnerable – they’re under-aged!

As for Melbournians in general, they drink pots rather than schooners 🙂

Inappropriate4:49 pm 10 Jun 09

That’s nothing to sneeze at.

Stay away from the flu clinic at Calvary Hospital too… I just got sent home coz all the Florey PS Students were there getting tested.

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