18 July 2013

Would you prefer a nice new Ferrari to light rail? [With poll]

| johnboy
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The Liberals’ Alistair Coe is having a fine time nitpicking the Capital Metro light rail proposal:

The ACT Government is spending $433,333 per additional commuter to ride the service, ACT Shadow Minister for Transport Alistair Coe said today.

“The Government has stated that light rail patronage will be 4,500 people in the morning peak. However, currently 3,000 commuters ride ACTION on Northbourne in the morning,” said Mr Coe.

“To spend so much money on an additional 1,500 people seems extraordinary and will hardly make a dent on the number of cars.

Would you like 1,500 shiny new Ferraris in Canberra (we could raffle them) or some trams?

I like trains but it’s a bit of a tooth sucker

For the same money would you prefer?

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UPDATE: Shane Rattenbury has made clear his displeasure with this line of thinking:

“The Liberals’ latest criticisms about costs are so simplistic they are embarrassing. They pick one projected cost and divide it by an estimated passenger increase for one random point in time, with no consideration of other factors – it’s almost like dividing two random numbers together. It doesn’t take into account any factors like population growth, the longevity of the rail system, environmental benefits, development opportunities or modal shift benefits on the whole transport network.

“An economic consultant conducted a cost-benefit analysis of the light rail project and showed that for every dollar invested in light rail, the Canberra community will receive over two dollars in benefits.

“It is clear that the light rail project will return the investment in benefits to the community. Not only will it will help the travelling public get around more easily, it will help with congestion and allow our city to develop in a smart and sustainable way. This is Canberra growing into a progressive and convenient 21st century city,” Mr Rattenbury concluded.

Of course a system of shared driverless cars using reputation indexes to get like minded people together would be within this sort of budget.


UPDATE: Chief Minister Gallagher has expressed her displeasure with young Alistair:

Chief Chief Minister and Acting Minister for the Environment and Sustainable Development, Katy Gallagher, has called on opposition spokesperson, Alistair Coe, to stop misleading the community on the Capital Metro Light Rail project.

“Mr Coe has issued a barrage of irrational and increasingly hysterical statements on this project which are very loose with the facts,” the Chief Minister said.

“The ACT Government went to the election with a commitment to deliver Capital Metro including releasing the latest draft cost estimates developed by economic experts.

“To date the government has issued four project updates which detail the latest news on the Capital Metro project. Comprehensive planning of the project is ongoing and the formation of the Capital Metro Project Office including the appointment of a specialised project director is underway.

“It is time for the Canberra Liberals to stop talking down the project and misrepresenting the facts to the Canberra community for purely political purposes, especially considering Mr Coe has not even

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Here are some facts for you to digest ONLY FOR STAGE 1:

Capital Metro Agency costs: $81.5 million budgeted through to 2018-19; and
Construction and Operate Contract cost: $2 billion over 30 years (2014 prices).
Construction (3 years): $783m [Business Case figure]
Interest burden on construction cost (23 years): $600m [independent estimate]
Ops & Logistics (30y): 30 x $22.2m pa = $666m [Business Case figure]
Total cost (30 years): $2,049m

Costs first 20 years:
Total: $ 1,830m
Availability Payment per annum: $ 91.5 m
Potential rates increase to pay for project $ 570 pa [160,000 households]

Notes:
1. All figures are almost certainly on the low side – only 20-28 % contingency allowed.
2. ‘Real’costs are those that have to be paid by ACT taxpayers, expressed in 2014 dollars.
These were calculated by a qualified specialist in this work. No arguments! For those complaining about the project, here is another opportunity to make yourself heard:
https://www.change.org/p/the-act-labor-greens-government-canberrans-must-vote-on-the-light-rail-project-no-mandate-exists-to-continue-the-project?recruiter=60887482&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=copylink

Capital Public Transport Alliance

I’ve got this feeling the Light Rail is going to be botched. It’s costing too much for a system that is mostly going to be build on crown land.

Why is it costing $200m to relocate services when light rail is primarily above ground (except for some cabling and storm water drains). My gut feeling is that some of our Chardonnay Socialist Politicians are adding unnecessary cost to the project (Eg: Solar power plant for electricity, non removal of tree in the Northbourne median, etc).

kagey said :

Cost-benefit analysis.
Has it been done? If so, can we have a look?

Was the opportunity cost for disruption during building?
Who will wear the risks for budget overruns/delays/?

Cost = massive inceases in rates
Benefit= A Green controlled Labor government until 2016

Cost-benefit analysis.
Has it been done? If so, can we have a look?

Was the opportunity cost for disruption during building?
Who will wear the risks for budget overruns/delays/?

Unless they are planning to put the light rail underground to avoid traffic lights, there is no benefit to light rail over dedicated bus lines – FOR THE POPULATION DENSITY.

Spending money on light rail over dedicated bus routes with synced traffic lights is criminal as you will end up with lower frequency by trying to save money in multicarriage runs.

I challenge anyone to show cost benefit of light rail over dedicated busses working. If nothing else, show me the thousands of free carparks at the terminus in Gungahlin or the thousands of appartments within a couple of mins walk of the line.

Coe might be wrong, but at least he’s not the one building the white elephant.

HiddenDragon1:00 pm 19 Jul 13

miz said :

Unfortunately, while light rail ‘looks lovely’ in artists’ impressions, it is clearly an expensive w*nk that will not only spoil our city’s gateway forever, but also, its route is already covered by a frequent bus service, it will be stuck to rails and therefore inflexible, and it won’t actually do anything to allay the obvious transport problems across the city.

Sheesh, can we just spend the money on making the public transport we already have (ACTION buses) more efficient, ie with better coverage and frequency?

And I agree with others that having a period of free bus travel would be a real, live, experiment that should give the govt a proper indication of what needs doing to make people use it more.

+1 – the money being to devoted to this project would surely fund worthwhile transport improvements across Canberra, not just for the areas which tend to favour Labor and the Greens. This week’s (repeat) episode of The Hollowmen – “The Edifice Complex” – was very apposite – forget about the boring, practical, unremarkable stuff, we want a big, sexy monument which symbolises our values.

maybe even an elevated o bahn….

we could use the orange bendy buses they’re chucking out!

gazket said :

why don’t they they hook 5 bendy busses together and have them run back n forth to Gungahlin.

But, but, but, but, then it woudn’t be “light rail” and the greenies believe light rail is the answer….

why don’t they they hook 5 bendy busses together and have them run back n forth to Gungahlin.

Even easier option they could time the traffic lights so you make make a few greens instead of having to stop at every set of lights, travel times and congestion would drop.

davo101 said :

KB1971 said :

So, when the Majura Parkway is finished do you think that people would use an on road cycle lane? Probably not as this is the main corridor for heavy traffic and Canberra by-passers. Yep I know there are a few that use the Monaro Hwy but they are few compared to the rest of Canberra.

Seriously? You’ve never noticed the Lycra Brigade on manoeuvres on the Federal Highway? You don’t think when the Parkway opens the southern battalions aren’t going to start enjoying this nice new training route?

While yes, the Federal Highway is dual carraigeway and carries heavy traffic, it carries less traffic than Majura at any one time. It also carried far less cycle traffic to the majority of main roads in the ACT. The majority or fiders I know use the Old Federal Highway rather than be on the main road.

The Majura Parkway will more than likely be like the Tuggeranong Parkway where you only occaisionally see a rider on one of the fastest, busiest roads in the ACT.

While you were selectively seeking to try an discredit me, you missed my point. I am a rider and I am not trying to assert that we need on road cycle lanes, I see that in this case that an off road path is the best for the area, drivers and riders. Will that keep people off Majura Road? Probably not, but you will find that a majority probably wont use an on road path there.

The cost? $12 million seems excessive to me but then I am not in the business of road construction and have to trust that the Government have looked into that.

KB1971 said :

So, when the Majura Parkway is finished do you think that people would use an on road cycle lane? Probably not as this is the main corridor for heavy traffic and Canberra by-passers. Yep I know there are a few that use the Monaro Hwy but they are few compared to the rest of Canberra.

Seriously? You’ve never noticed the Lycra Brigade on manoeuvres on the Federal Highway? You don’t think when the Parkway opens the southern battalions aren’t going to start enjoying this nice new training route?

Leon said :

Alistair Coe’s estimate of $433,000 per additional commuter is likely to be eclipsed by the $12 million off-road cycle path alongside the Majura Parkway. According to Shane Rattenbury, this path will “complement the proposed on-road cycle lane.”

No commuters currently cycle along Majura Road. If the Majura Parkway attracts as many cycle commuters as the Rudd St section of the Civic Cycle Loop, and half of them will use the off-road path, then the path will cost $630,000 per additional commuter.

In 2011 the Government estimated that on-road cycle lanes along Majura Road would cost $620,000, and ranked the main section 133rd out of 202 projects. The Government report considered a more expensive off-road path along the main section of Majura Road. On that basis, Katy Gallagher bypassed more than 100 better-value projects and promised to spend up to a whopping $12 million on an off-road path.

Mr Rattenbury now says that “progressing the path at the same time [as the Majura Parkway] will result in efficiencies and a lower cost.”

Methinks the Government would benefit from the services of a transport economist.

Another post said “An off road path is the best solution for that part of road…….”
I agree and suggest the Majura path should be sited a bit further to the East, say near Bungendore.

Unfortunately, while light rail ‘looks lovely’ in artists’ impressions, it is clearly an expensive w*nk that will not only spoil our city’s gateway forever, but also, its route is already covered by a frequent bus service, it will be stuck to rails and therefore inflexible, and it won’t actually do anything to allay the obvious transport problems across the city.

Sheesh, can we just spend the money on making the public transport we already have (ACTION buses) more efficient, ie with better coverage and frequency?

And I agree with others that having a period of free bus travel would be a real, live, experiment that should give the govt a proper indication of what needs doing to make people use it more.

Leon said :

Alistair Coe’s estimate of $433,000 per additional commuter is likely to be eclipsed by the $12 million off-road cycle path alongside the Majura Parkway. According to Shane Rattenbury, this path will “complement the proposed on-road cycle lane.”

No commuters currently cycle along Majura Road. If the Majura Parkway attracts as many cycle commuters as the Rudd St section of the Civic Cycle Loop, and half of them will use the off-road path, then the path will cost $630,000 per additional commuter.

In 2011 the Government estimated that on-road cycle lanes along Majura Road would cost $620,000, and ranked the main section 133rd out of 202 projects. The Government report considered a more expensive off-road path along the main section of Majura Road. On that basis, Katy Gallagher bypassed more than 100 better-value projects and promised to spend up to a whopping $12 million on an off-road path.

Mr Rattenbury now says that “progressing the path at the same time [as the Majura Parkway] will result in efficiencies and a lower cost.”

Methinks the Government would benefit from the services of a transport economist.

Would you commute on Majura Road in its current & previous condition? Nope, too busy, a 90 zone and absolutely no shoulder (prior to roadworks that is).

So, when the Majura Parkway is finished do you think that people would use an on road cycle lane? Probably not as this is the main corridor for heavy traffic and Canberra by-passers. Yep I know there are a few that use the Monaro Hwy but they are few compared to the rest of Canberra.

An off road path is the best solution for that part of road, keeps the bikes away from drivers and keeps the riders safe. It should not even come with on road bike lanes, off road only.

Holden Caulfield said :

p1 said :

They could make all of Actions services free AND increase the currently running services AND give Action buses some sort of remote control that changes the traffic lights to green as they approach.

Yep, I’ve had this opinion for some time. FREE BUSES FOR ALL!

At least trial it for 6 months or so to see if it has any effect before committing such a vast amount of resources to white has a 50/50 chance of being success of white elephant (and that’s probably being generous to its chances of success).

It nearly free now, $2:50 one way is bugger all, especially if you live in the outer suburbs.

Hang on. So Coe got the projected numbers from one morning’s peak, divided the whole cost of the rail by that number(one morning peak) & then decided that that was the trip cost? I’m not so good with the mathematicals, but that doesn’t make any sense.

switch said :

Ben_Dover said :

An economic consultant conducted a cost-benefit analysis of the light rail project and showed that for every dollar invested in light rail, the Canberra community will receive over two dollars in benefits.

I love economic “consultants” like these, because their argument proves that if we invested the right amount in light rail or whatever, we could wipe out our national debt. Did they get their degrees off the back of the cornflakes packet this morning?

You know what would wipe out national debt, if people stopped eating, smoking and drinking themselves into ill health, forcing health to become an ever growing burden that sucks away resources from capital investments intended to improve out community. But that would call for some self responsibility, and unfortunately, people have become adept at not exercising that.

switch said :

Ben_Dover said :

An economic consultant conducted a cost-benefit analysis of the light rail project and showed that for every dollar invested in light rail, the Canberra community will receive over two dollars in benefits.

I love economic “consultants” like these, because their argument proves that if we invested the right amount in light rail or whatever, we could wipe out our national debt. Did they get their degrees off the back of the cornflakes packet this morning?

Its because they include non-monetary benefits. So a reduction in pollution, decreases health issues and therefore health costs. Projects like this can have a positive cost benefit, and yet still not make any money. It all depends on what benefits you consider and how you value them.

Ben_Dover said :

An economic consultant conducted a cost-benefit analysis of the light rail project and showed that for every dollar invested in light rail, the Canberra community will receive over two dollars in benefits.

I love economic “consultants” like these, because their argument proves that if we invested the right amount in light rail or whatever, we could wipe out our national debt. Did they get their degrees off the back of the cornflakes packet this morning?

Well aparently we can’t afford asphalt roads in the ACT anymore (hence the loose gravel we are getting) so why are we even considering light rail.

Has anyone else had stone chips from the “resealed” roads in Phillip? It’s like driving through a pile of blue metal.

Chief Minister Gallagher has now had her say.

And Skywhale is still doing nothing to help. Lazy cow. Oh, hang on …

An economic consultant conducted a cost-benefit analysis of the light rail project and showed that for every dollar invested in light rail, the Canberra community will receive over two dollars in benefits.

“I also have a bridge you may be interested in buying….”

“It is clear that the light rail project will return the investment in benefits to the community. Not only will it will help the travelling public get around more easily, it will help with congestion and allow our city to develop in a smart and sustainable way.

“In my dreams….”

So presumably Mayor Ratten has had his underlings undertake extensive research into whether or not the Gungahlians will abandon their cars and gleefully run naked to get their seat on the railbus to make it viable,yes?

With regards to Rattenbury’s response, what other potential projects do they have on the books that have a cost benefit ratio of greater than two?

It’s all well and good to say that there’s community benefit in this project but that doesnt mean its the best use of the money.

thebrownstreak693:09 pm 18 Jul 13

MrBigEars said :

We could build a Capital Rickshaw Network. I’m not sure what the going rate for a tuk tuk driver is, but I hear there’s going to be some available workers soon.

It would be fun to build cyclos powered by groups of 4. They could take passengers around central Canberra using roads and bike paths. With 4 people pedaling they could actually get some speed up.

Perhaps dress it up to appeal to those people who want to work for the dole while training for a triathlon.

IrishPete said :

poetix said :

johnboy said :

To be fair to Alistair I took his dollar amount and went looking for a transport alternative in that price range

How much is a small Zeppelin? Preferably yellow?

with or without udders? udders cost extra. they have to be imported from England.

IP

This is udderly ridicularse there is only one Zeppelin and it is LED!

We could build a Capital Rickshaw Network. I’m not sure what the going rate for a tuk tuk driver is, but I hear there’s going to be some available workers soon.

poetix said :

johnboy said :

To be fair to Alistair I took his dollar amount and went looking for a transport alternative in that price range

How much is a small Zeppelin? Preferably yellow?

with or without udders? udders cost extra. they have to be imported from England.

IP

johnboy said :

To be fair to Alistair I took his dollar amount and went looking for a transport alternative in that price range

How much is a small Zeppelin? Preferably yellow?

Ideology over reality and sanity; all at taxpayers’ expense.

Holden Caulfield1:26 pm 18 Jul 13

p1 said :

They could make all of Actions services free AND increase the currently running services AND give Action buses some sort of remote control that changes the traffic lights to green as they approach.

Yep, I’ve had this opinion for some time. FREE BUSES FOR ALL!

At least trial it for 6 months or so to see if it has any effect before committing such a vast amount of resources to white has a 50/50 chance of being success of white elephant (and that’s probably being generous to its chances of success).

I think we can settle in for a sustained barrage of press releases from MLA Alistair Coe, focusing on aspects of Capital Metro he finds disdainful, such as: spending money on infrastructure, resolving road congestion, growing public transport patronage, urban renewal, transit oriented development etc.

Oh wait – no, this latest press release is about buying people exotic cars, instead of mass transit. Applying the same logic, we could ferry people by ambulance to Sydney instead of having hospitals in Canberra.

Damien Haas
Chair, ACT Light Rail

To be fair to Alistair I took his dollar amount and went looking for a transport alternative in that price range

Now with Shane’s response.

HiddenDragon12:12 pm 18 Jul 13

Yes, but only if the Ferrari is solar powered, and has a customised bike rack because, you know, things like that are really important to me, and its great that future generations are prepared to pay for me to have things that will make me feel better about myself.

Why would I want a Ferrari? The roads in Australia are too terribad, infested with speed cameras and policepeople, let alone the fact you’d tear off the front spoiler everytime you went over a speed bump. And besides, I’ve already got a car. Let’s make Gungahlin like Brunswick!

I first heard this sort of argument over a year ago, I reckon, in a letter to the Canberra Times. That example was: You could buy everyone in Gungers a new Corolla and build them a dedicated free carpark in Civic for far less (than light rail is going to cost).

At first, $600M sounds a bit rich for a tram system.

In Melbourne they can manage a capital works value of about $10M per kilometre of tram line, with ongoing operating costs of about $1.7M/km (including leasing the rolling stock). All in 2006 dollars.

Assuming that in 6 years prices will have doubled to about $20M/km, that $600M buys about 30km of tram infrastructure.

Now it’s worth asking which part of Northbourne avenue is carrying 3,000 commuters during morning peak. Where are they coming from? Where are the 4,500 commuters using the tram expected to come from? Will there actually be more people using Northbourne during the morning peak than 4,500? What if it turns out that the increase in Northbourne patronage from Gunghalin is actually going to be closer to 3,000, with total traffic on Northbourne during morning peak increasing to 6,000 since you can squeeze more people down the road in a shorter time using a tram?

Where does that leave Alistair Coe’s argument? That’s $200k for every additional commuter to squeeze down Northbourne avenue during morning peak, assuming that all other passengers on the tram during the rest of the day are riding for free (including, for example, those 4,500 passengers returning home from work).

Now assume that there are actually two times as many passengers using the trams during the rest of the day, as are using the trams during morning peak. That’s the same passengers going home in the evening, and about the same amount of people going back and forth during the day (for part time jobs, social visits, catching up with the wife at lunch, shopping, travelling to meetings using the corporate MyWay card, etc). This reduces the cost per passenger to about $60k per passenger to install the service. Assuming you wish to run the service for 20 yearsbefore reaching break-even, you will need to get about $15/day per peak passenger. That’s about $5 per trip for the passengers I estimated earlier. If there are more passengers using the service outside morning peak than just 4,500, the prices come down significantly.

So as usual, Alistair has cherry picked part of an argument while ignoring the important bit: the tram will do much more for us than carry an extra 1,500 people to work in the morning.

…or we could continually up the cost of rego and parking to pay for light rail. Wait. No. Um.

You mean we’re not going to buy Sydney’s discarded monorail and run that down the median strip on Northbourne Avenue?!

bundah said :

p1 said :

They could make all of Actions services free AND increase the currently running services AND give Action buses some sort of remote control that changes the traffic lights to green as they approach.

Or they could also widen Northbourne Ave to four lanes and have a designated bus lane during peak periods with extra services…

Or we could just change school hours… for free.

p1 said :

They could make all of Actions services free AND increase the currently running services AND give Action buses some sort of remote control that changes the traffic lights to green as they approach.

Or they could also widen Northbourne Ave to four lanes and have a designated bus lane during peak periods with extra services…

I like P1’s idea.

I also like those community cars where you become a member and can pick up any nearby car to take you where you need to go. You could certainly scatter a lot of Mazdas and set up a nice computer booking system…

Alistair Coe’s estimate of $433,000 per additional commuter is likely to be eclipsed by the $12 million off-road cycle path alongside the Majura Parkway. According to Shane Rattenbury, this path will “complement the proposed on-road cycle lane.”

No commuters currently cycle along Majura Road. If the Majura Parkway attracts as many cycle commuters as the Rudd St section of the Civic Cycle Loop, and half of them will use the off-road path, then the path will cost $630,000 per additional commuter.

In 2011 the Government estimated that on-road cycle lanes along Majura Road would cost $620,000, and ranked the main section 133rd out of 202 projects. The Government report considered a more expensive off-road path along the main section of Majura Road. On that basis, Katy Gallagher bypassed more than 100 better-value projects and promised to spend up to a whopping $12 million on an off-road path.

Mr Rattenbury now says that “progressing the path at the same time [as the Majura Parkway] will result in efficiencies and a lower cost.”

Methinks the Government would benefit from the services of a transport economist.

They could make all of Actions services free AND increase the currently running services AND give Action buses some sort of remote control that changes the traffic lights to green as they approach.

How many bicycles could we buy Mr Coe?

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