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Zed runs at Gazza

By johnboy - 4 February 2013 61

zed seselja

Word is breaking that Liberal Leader Zed Seselja has taken the easy option of knocking off sitting Senator Gary Humphries rather than taking the hard road of trying to win a new seat for his party.

We’ll let you know what this means for the Legislative Assembly when we know.


UPDATE 04/01/13 09:06: Word is that Zed will only have to give up his Assembly seat if he gets the pre-selection.

Our sense is that the Seselja forces have hollowed out the local Liberals to the point he should have no trouble even with Senator Humphries strong record.


UPDATE 04/01/13 09:47: Zed will be making an announcement at 12.30pm.


UPDATE 04/01/13 11:39: Senator Humphries has announced he’ll be making a statement at 1.30pm.


UPDATE 04/01/13 12:45: Zed’s standing down from the Liberal leadership, but not the Assembly on Monday.


UPDATE 04/01/13 13:37: Zed’s press conference as recorded from 1206 2CC is online if you want a listen.

[Photo courtesy Wiki Commons]

What’s Your opinion?


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61 Responses to
Zed runs at Gazza
1
Girt_Hindrance 9:19 am
04 Feb 13
#

“Come at me, Broo”

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2
Madam Cholet 9:23 am
04 Feb 13
#

Unfortunately, I’m not sure that Zed can even manage pre-selection. I don’t really care who is in that Senate seat particularly, but I think that he should still get the hell out of the Liberal leadership. It may however be a good spot for him – one where you can rest entirely on your laurels and get re-elected time after time – no change for him really. This may also give the Greens the in they need if they think that there’s hay to be made in Liberal stoushes.

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3
Primal 9:42 am
04 Feb 13
#

After his recent showing down Tuggeranong way, I thought he could have been their best chance to bump off Gai Brodtmann.

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4
Holden Caulfield 9:46 am
04 Feb 13
#

Should spice up local politics for a brief moment.

I would love to see the back of smarmy Humphries, yet can only think he would actually do a lot more for the people of the ACT than the seemingly lazy Zed could ever do.

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5
Tetranitrate 10:04 am
04 Feb 13
#

Well, if he’s doing it he’s almost certainly done the numbers already. It’s not really that big a loss, Gary Humphries really didn’t do very much.

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6
chewy14 10:13 am
04 Feb 13
#

Primal said :

After his recent showing down Tuggeranong way, I thought he could have been their best chance to bump off Gai Brodtmann.

Agreed. For the Liberal party that would have been the best move.

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7
HiddenDragon 10:31 am
04 Feb 13
#

With Abbott and Hockey having made repeated comments to the effect that they intend to gut DEEWR and Health and Ageing, and probably do similar, or worse, to others yet to be named, it would be a very brave Liberal who would give up a safe – if dreary – gig in the Assembly to try his chances in a House of Reps seat in the ACT.

If Gillard and Swan make no further major cuts to APS staffing, the contrast to the fear and loathing in Canberra against Abbott will be such that the Liberals may well need Zed’s apparently higher (than Gary’s) profile and popularity just to hold the Senate spot.

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8
dungfungus 10:57 am
04 Feb 13
#

HiddenDragon said :

With Abbott and Hockey having made repeated comments to the effect that they intend to gut DEEWR and Health and Ageing, and probably do similar, or worse, to others yet to be named, it would be a very brave Liberal who would give up a safe – if dreary – gig in the Assembly to try his chances in a House of Reps seat in the ACT.

If Gillard and Swan make no further major cuts to APS staffing, the contrast to the fear and loathing in Canberra against Abbott will be such that the Liberals may well need Zed’s apparently higher (than Gary’s) profile and popularity just to hold the Senate spot.

And how many cuts have Gillard and Swan already made to the APS staffing?

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9
Tetranitrate 11:04 am
04 Feb 13
#

HiddenDragon said :

If Gillard and Swan make no further major cuts to APS staffing, the contrast to the fear and loathing in Canberra against Abbott will be such that the Liberals may well need Zed’s apparently higher (than Gary’s) profile and popularity just to hold the Senate spot.

Rubbish, it’s just not happening, Gary or Zed.
The Quota is 33.33%, Canberra leans labor, but not that much. Kerry Tucker couldn’t manage it and she was a far better candidate than what’s on offer.

Even in 1998 the libs still held the seat -though they dropped bellow quota. That was in the aftermath of the Howard cuts and with the Democrats as the 3rd party with a strong candidate. Simon Sheik is not such a candidate, the Greens can’t really pull the ‘doctors wives’ the way the Democrats could, and in that particular election One Nation took 5% of first preference votes. If it couldn’t happen then it’s not going to happen under the present party system or anything like it.

I don’t really get why people have such a fetish over the 2nd ACT senate seat anyway.

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10
Alderney 11:38 am
04 Feb 13
#

Zed Seselja, couldn’t cut it as a solicitor, so became an MLA.

Zed Seselja, couldn’t cut it as an MLA, so became a Senator.

Zed Seselja, couldn’t cut it as a Senator…

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11
HiddenDragon 11:39 am
04 Feb 13
#

dungfungus said :

HiddenDragon said :

With Abbott and Hockey having made repeated comments to the effect that they intend to gut DEEWR and Health and Ageing, and probably do similar, or worse, to others yet to be named, it would be a very brave Liberal who would give up a safe – if dreary – gig in the Assembly to try his chances in a House of Reps seat in the ACT.

If Gillard and Swan make no further major cuts to APS staffing, the contrast to the fear and loathing in Canberra against Abbott will be such that the Liberals may well need Zed’s apparently higher (than Gary’s) profile and popularity just to hold the Senate spot.

And how many cuts have Gillard and Swan already made to the APS staffing?

Quite a few, so far as I can see, and (unsurprisingly) there hasn’t been that much fuss made about it locally – not much more than predictable, but measured, huffing and puffing from union spokespersonages.

The only comment of real note that I recall on the Gillard/Swan cuts came from Gallagher and/or Barr – to the effect that the ACT Government can probably spend enough money to offset cuts by the federal Labor Government, but if Tony (“mad, bad and dangerous to know”) Abbott sneaks his way in to the Lodge, all bets are off and there is no way the ACT Government could spend enough to compensate for the slashing and burning he would unleash on Canberra. The subtlety of that really was admirable.

My view is that a federal Coaliton Government would find it somewhat harder than they imagine to make truly signficant and sustained cuts to APS staffing, so the contrast to what we have at present may not be nearly as great as feared. Whatever the outcome of the federal election, I would prefer the ACT Government to stick to its knitting and turn its mind to how it will deal with its own deficit when, sadly, the “economic cycle” fails to produce a miraculous solution to that problem.

Getting back to the car chase, my guess is that Gary is probably more popular with people who are going to vote Liberal anyway – particularly older, small(ish) “l” Liberals – while Zed’s appeal would be more with Howard battler/Abbott aspirationals, and others whose vote is up for grabs.

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12
johnboy 11:42 am
04 Feb 13
#

Gary’s announced his own media conference now.

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13
Thumper 12:07 pm
04 Feb 13
#

Humphries lost my vote after an email conversation earlier last year that basically went along the lines of:

Thumper: Dear Senator, I think issue X is unfair due to these reasons. Care to comment on it.

Humphries: I will look into it for you.

Three or four months later

Thumper: Dear Senator, as my elected official I would expect that you would reply. Obviously this not the case.

Humphries: Dear Mr Thumper, it appears we lost your correspondance. I shall consult my colleagues.

Thumper: Dear Senator. I wrote to you, not your colleagues. And my question? Do have a stance or an opinion?

Humphries: This is an interesting case that raises alot of questions.

Thumper: No kidding. That’s why I asked. Do you have an opinion.

Humphries: This is an interesting case that raises alot of questions.

Thumper: So you don’t have an opinion or a stance of this issue?

Silence.

Admittedly I wrote to Andrew Leigh who wrote back saying, I have forwarded it to the Minister repsonsible.

Thanks Andrew, if I wanted to get a letter from the Minister responsible I would have written to her. In this case I wrote to you seeking your view, not a form letter from the Department telling me stuff I could look up on the Departmental website.

A pox on all their houses.

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14
HiddenDragon 12:48 pm
04 Feb 13
#

Tetranitrate said :

HiddenDragon said :

If Gillard and Swan make no further major cuts to APS staffing, the contrast to the fear and loathing in Canberra against Abbott will be such that the Liberals may well need Zed’s apparently higher (than Gary’s) profile and popularity just to hold the Senate spot.

Rubbish, it’s just not happening, Gary or Zed.
The Quota is 33.33%, Canberra leans labor, but not that much. Kerry Tucker couldn’t manage it and she was a far better candidate than what’s on offer.

Even in 1998 the libs still held the seat -though they dropped bellow quota. That was in the aftermath of the Howard cuts and with the Democrats as the 3rd party with a strong candidate. Simon Sheik is not such a candidate, the Greens can’t really pull the ‘doctors wives’ the way the Democrats could, and in that particular election One Nation took 5% of first preference votes. If it couldn’t happen then it’s not going to happen under the present party system or anything like it.

I don’t really get why people have such a fetish over the 2nd ACT senate seat anyway.

Even with the cuts that Howard and Costello made in their early years, I think there are reasons why the lived experience of the first term of the Howard Government would have been less unpalatable for many Canberrans than is the prospect of an Abbott Government. Aside from hip pocket issues, Abbott seems to be a somewhat more polarising figure on social and personal grounds than Howard was. Simon Sheikh’s national profile (had Q&A existed then, I doubt if Kerry Tucker would have been a panelist) may serve him very well with younger and more transient people, who might not otherwise bother to vote in what would be seen as a fairly blah election.

I don’t seriously believe that the Liberals stand to lose their ACT Senate spot, whoever their candidate is, but with a skittish electorate, they would be unwise to take it entirely for granted.

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15
rosscoact 12:50 pm
04 Feb 13
#

Alderney said :

Zed Seselja, couldn’t cut it as a solicitor, so became an MLA.

Zed Seselja, couldn’t cut it as an MLA, so became a Senator.

Zed Seselja, couldn’t cut it as a Senator…

so became Prime Minister?

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