APS job cuts, what's really going to happen

Jim Jones said :

Yeah, the libs are gonna get rid of 12,000 jobs totally *cough* “naturally”. Nothing to see here, move along.

Heh. Yeah, 12,000 voluntary separations in a year? Crap! And I read elsewhere (Fin?) that they are eyeing the bulging SES ranks with intent. Crafty if they can pull it off, because every SES gone = an excess EA/PA too, possibly even an Executive Officer if the SES person had delusions of grandeur (or a crappy PA).

When they chop the APS, rather than being forensic it’s generally just a massive shortening of the staffing budget, rather than targetting specific areas or levels. I think a lot of people would agree that reducing SES and possibly the ELs too would do a lot of good.

dungfungus said :

Jim Jones said :

JessP said :

So your comment is bought to us by the Australian Labour Party?

What is the point of this argument? Under either option their will be pain.

I don’t vote Labour and don’t support them.

Yes, there will be pain either way. This is a markedly different from the position argued by the Liberal stooges: trying to tell everyone it will happen ‘via natural attrition’ and that no-one has anything to worry about. How they can pull this crap with a straight faces amazes me.

The rest of Australia accepts it so toughen up.

Great argument – ‘toughen up’.

: golfclap :

The commentary I have seen on the Budget, including from reporters who are not usually unsympathetic to Labor, suggests that it repeats the pattern of recent years by including notably optimistic forecasts of revenue. Taking this, together with repeated dire warnings from Ross Garnaut (again, not noted as a harsh public critic of Labor) about the need for falls in Australian living standards, due to the imminent end of the “China boom”, suggests to me that there will be seriously bad news for Canberra regardless of which party/parties win the 2013 and subsequent elections.

Until we hear a lot more detail about the Liberals’ plans for public administration, speculation about the numbers of job losses and when and how they will be achieved will be just that – speculation, and relatively meaningless at that. Whatever the precise details, my feeling is it will end up being at least as bad as 1996, and it worries me that there are many people in this town (including those who run the local government) who seem to be in a state of denial about what we face.

Jim Jones said :

JessP said :

So your comment is bought to us by the Australian Labour Party?

What is the point of this argument? Under either option their will be pain.

I don’t vote Labour and don’t support them.

Yes, there will be pain either way. This is a markedly different from the position argued by the Liberal stooges: trying to tell everyone it will happen ‘via natural attrition’ and that no-one has anything to worry about. How they can pull this crap with a straight faces amazes me.

The rest of Australia accepts it so toughen up.

Jim Jones said :

JessP said :

So your comment is bought to us by the Australian Labour Party?

What is the point of this argument? Under either option their will be pain.

I don’t vote Labour and don’t support them.

Yes, there will be pain either way. This is a markedly different from the position argued by the Liberal stooges: trying to tell everyone it will happen ‘via natural attrition’ and that no-one has anything to worry about. How they can pull this crap with a straight faces amazes me.

Depends on how they can twist the term ‘natural attrition’. If they abolish whole departments as they have promised to do, presumably the people are redundant (otherwise where is the saving)? I guess there’s a twisted logic that suggests that this constitutes ‘natural attrition’.

c_c™ said :

zorro29 said :

retail rely on the APS? more like “have a captive audience so gouge away for poor quality”….

i would like to see a huge purge in the APS cos a large portion of people are useless and many jobs have no impact on anyone (or could be performed by fewer people)…and impacting the retail sector would be an added bonus cos you’ve had it way too good for way too long – the pricing for quality/service/range is outrageous (for everything). if you provided honest and good value output, i might feel bad for you…but, alas, you don’t.

i work in the APS and no one is particularly nervous about cuts…cos they know either way they get a massive payout…they’re more nervous about shifting portfolio responsibilities and the resulting machinery of government changes.

Yeah, like anyone is going to take someone who can’t capitalise ‘I’ and uses the phrase ‘cos’ seriously. At least you prove there is some fat to be trimmed from the public service.

+1

And the payouts only start looking good if you have been a public servant for a considerable time.

pepmeup said :

Mysteryman said :

pepmeup said :

When labor cut jobs from APS it’s bad for Canberra when libs cut jobs it’s bad for Canberra, I dont really care who does it. Article in today’s CT about how buisiness is doing it tough already http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/no-remedy-in-sight-for-business-gloom-20130515-2jn3r.html labor have already hurt Canberra, and the real estate market and retail sector are really feeling it. Labor have said they will cut further, libs have said they will be better at cutting further. Joe hockey wants the $3.1billion he will save from the 12,000 jobs so it won’t take too long. I think we are in for a tough time for the next year or so.

But I agree come the 15th sept it’s unlikely 12k jobs will go day one but they will go and $3.1 bill will go from local economy.

I find it very hard to believe anyone who says the Canberra real estate market is really feeling it.

check vacancy rates on rental properties, check days on market for properties, check auction Clearence rates. Mate if you bought a house in the last few years it’s worth less now than when you bought it.

Check out a suburban/town centre shopping centre and note the vacancies. Same with warehouses in industrial suburbs. This is happened over the past 5 years. I hope well paid public servants who shop offshore online are comfortable about this.

JessP said :

So your comment is bought to us by the Australian Labour Party?

What is the point of this argument? Under either option their will be pain.

I don’t vote Labour and don’t support them.

Yes, there will be pain either way. This is a markedly different from the position argued by the Liberal stooges: trying to tell everyone it will happen ‘via natural attrition’ and that no-one has anything to worry about. How they can pull this crap with a straight faces amazes me.

pepmeup said :

Mysteryman said :

pepmeup said :

When labor cut jobs from APS it’s bad for Canberra when libs cut jobs it’s bad for Canberra, I dont really care who does it. Article in today’s CT about how buisiness is doing it tough already http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/no-remedy-in-sight-for-business-gloom-20130515-2jn3r.html labor have already hurt Canberra, and the real estate market and retail sector are really feeling it. Labor have said they will cut further, libs have said they will be better at cutting further. Joe hockey wants the $3.1billion he will save from the 12,000 jobs so it won’t take too long. I think we are in for a tough time for the next year or so.

But I agree come the 15th sept it’s unlikely 12k jobs will go day one but they will go and $3.1 bill will go from local economy.

I find it very hard to believe anyone who says the Canberra real estate market is really feeling it.

check vacancy rates on rental properties, check days on market for properties, check auction Clearence rates. Mate if you bought a house in the last few years it’s worth less now than when you bought it.

Did you actually look at those figures at all? House prices over the last quarter are up 2.3 percent. Both the total volume and value of sales over the first part of this year are up over the last two years, and expected to continue to rise this year. The median house price is the third highest in the country, and nearly $500,000, which is roughly where it’s been for the past 3 years.

Real estate is an investment. It fluctuates in value. The fluctuations over the last 3 or 4 years don’t suggest that the Canberra real estate market is “feeling it”. In fact the data suggests nothing of the sort.

JessP said :

Jim Jones said :

Mysteryman said :

dungfungus said :

pepmeup said :

Big Joe Hockey was on Allan Jones yesterday, I don’t listen to him but Latika Bourke tweeted a link to the interview http://www.2gb.com/audioplayer/9080 you only need to listen to the first minute or so, Joe says 12,000 public service jobs to go in Canberra. I have heard 12,000 before but was told that was national. 12,000 in Canberra would more than double our unemployment. This would turn Canberra into a pretty tough place to live for a while.

What Joe Hockey said on ABC News 24 was that 12,000 public service jobs would go BY NATURAL ATTRITION so it is not going to happen overnight which blows your doubling the ACT unemployment rate out of the water.
At the same time, job vacancies in the public service have fallen dramatically in the past two years under Labor. Do you honestly beleive that if Labor are re-elected in September that they won’t continue to sap the public service emeployment pool?

This. If the Libs are elected they will do things like freeze recruitment, offer VRs, and keep efficiency dividends to meet their figures over time. It won’t be a case of picking 12,000 names out of a hat telling them to clean out their desks by the end of the day. Not the end of-the-world sort of stuff people like this:

Jim Jones said :

Yeah, the libs are gonna get rid of 12,000 jobs totally *cough* “naturally”. Nothing to see here, move along.

would have you think. People like that also conveniently forget the 4,000 jobs cut in the last 12 months or so by the Labor government. You see, when Labor do it people like him call it “sensible decision making” and “efficiency dividends”. When Liberal do it, it’s “axing the APS” and “slashing and burning jobs”.

This message brought to you by the Liberal Party of Australia.

So your comment is bought to us by the Australian Labour Party?

What is the point of this argument? Under either option their will be pain.

Yes, we are in for a tough ride, or we could take Michael Moores view from the city news

http://city news.com.au/2013/why-Canberra-needs-to-vote-to-protect-itself/

But as a former independent his view may well be biased.

I can remember the power Brian Harradine had in the early years of the Howard gov. Is there a good local issues independent running? Or will be be forced to contemplate the greens

Mysteryman said :

pepmeup said :

When labor cut jobs from APS it’s bad for Canberra when libs cut jobs it’s bad for Canberra, I dont really care who does it. Article in today’s CT about how buisiness is doing it tough already http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/no-remedy-in-sight-for-business-gloom-20130515-2jn3r.html labor have already hurt Canberra, and the real estate market and retail sector are really feeling it. Labor have said they will cut further, libs have said they will be better at cutting further. Joe hockey wants the $3.1billion he will save from the 12,000 jobs so it won’t take too long. I think we are in for a tough time for the next year or so.

But I agree come the 15th sept it’s unlikely 12k jobs will go day one but they will go and $3.1 bill will go from local economy.

I find it very hard to believe anyone who says the Canberra real estate market is really feeling it.

check vacancy rates on rental properties, check days on market for properties, check auction Clearence rates. Mate if you bought a house in the last few years it’s worth less now than when you bought it.

Jim Jones said :

Mysteryman said :

dungfungus said :

pepmeup said :

Big Joe Hockey was on Allan Jones yesterday, I don’t listen to him but Latika Bourke tweeted a link to the interview http://www.2gb.com/audioplayer/9080 you only need to listen to the first minute or so, Joe says 12,000 public service jobs to go in Canberra. I have heard 12,000 before but was told that was national. 12,000 in Canberra would more than double our unemployment. This would turn Canberra into a pretty tough place to live for a while.

What Joe Hockey said on ABC News 24 was that 12,000 public service jobs would go BY NATURAL ATTRITION so it is not going to happen overnight which blows your doubling the ACT unemployment rate out of the water.
At the same time, job vacancies in the public service have fallen dramatically in the past two years under Labor. Do you honestly beleive that if Labor are re-elected in September that they won’t continue to sap the public service emeployment pool?

This. If the Libs are elected they will do things like freeze recruitment, offer VRs, and keep efficiency dividends to meet their figures over time. It won’t be a case of picking 12,000 names out of a hat telling them to clean out their desks by the end of the day. Not the end of-the-world sort of stuff people like this:

Jim Jones said :

Yeah, the libs are gonna get rid of 12,000 jobs totally *cough* “naturally”. Nothing to see here, move along.

would have you think. People like that also conveniently forget the 4,000 jobs cut in the last 12 months or so by the Labor government. You see, when Labor do it people like him call it “sensible decision making” and “efficiency dividends”. When Liberal do it, it’s “axing the APS” and “slashing and burning jobs”.

This message brought to you by the Liberal Party of Australia.

So your comment is bought to us by the Australian Labour Party?

What is the point of this argument? Under either option their will be pain.

pepmeup said :

When labor cut jobs from APS it’s bad for Canberra when libs cut jobs it’s bad for Canberra, I dont really care who does it. Article in today’s CT about how buisiness is doing it tough already http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/no-remedy-in-sight-for-business-gloom-20130515-2jn3r.html labor have already hurt Canberra, and the real estate market and retail sector are really feeling it. Labor have said they will cut further, libs have said they will be better at cutting further. Joe hockey wants the $3.1billion he will save from the 12,000 jobs so it won’t take too long. I think we are in for a tough time for the next year or so.

But I agree come the 15th sept it’s unlikely 12k jobs will go day one but they will go and $3.1 bill will go from local economy.

I find it very hard to believe anyone who says the Canberra real estate market is really feeling it.

When labor cut jobs from APS it’s bad for Canberra when libs cut jobs it’s bad for Canberra, I dont really care who does it. Article in today’s CT about how buisiness is doing it tough already http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/no-remedy-in-sight-for-business-gloom-20130515-2jn3r.html labor have already hurt Canberra, and the real estate market and retail sector are really feeling it. Labor have said they will cut further, libs have said they will be better at cutting further. Joe hockey wants the $3.1billion he will save from the 12,000 jobs so it won’t take too long. I think we are in for a tough time for the next year or so.

But I agree come the 15th sept it’s unlikely 12k jobs will go day one but they will go and $3.1 bill will go from local economy.

Mysteryman said :

dungfungus said :

pepmeup said :

Big Joe Hockey was on Allan Jones yesterday, I don’t listen to him but Latika Bourke tweeted a link to the interview http://www.2gb.com/audioplayer/9080 you only need to listen to the first minute or so, Joe says 12,000 public service jobs to go in Canberra. I have heard 12,000 before but was told that was national. 12,000 in Canberra would more than double our unemployment. This would turn Canberra into a pretty tough place to live for a while.

What Joe Hockey said on ABC News 24 was that 12,000 public service jobs would go BY NATURAL ATTRITION so it is not going to happen overnight which blows your doubling the ACT unemployment rate out of the water.
At the same time, job vacancies in the public service have fallen dramatically in the past two years under Labor. Do you honestly beleive that if Labor are re-elected in September that they won’t continue to sap the public service emeployment pool?

This. If the Libs are elected they will do things like freeze recruitment, offer VRs, and keep efficiency dividends to meet their figures over time. It won’t be a case of picking 12,000 names out of a hat telling them to clean out their desks by the end of the day. Not the end of-the-world sort of stuff people like this:

Jim Jones said :

Yeah, the libs are gonna get rid of 12,000 jobs totally *cough* “naturally”. Nothing to see here, move along.

would have you think. People like that also conveniently forget the 4,000 jobs cut in the last 12 months or so by the Labor government. You see, when Labor do it people like him call it “sensible decision making” and “efficiency dividends”. When Liberal do it, it’s “axing the APS” and “slashing and burning jobs”.

This message brought to you by the Liberal Party of Australia.

dungfungus said :

pepmeup said :

Big Joe Hockey was on Allan Jones yesterday, I don’t listen to him but Latika Bourke tweeted a link to the interview http://www.2gb.com/audioplayer/9080 you only need to listen to the first minute or so, Joe says 12,000 public service jobs to go in Canberra. I have heard 12,000 before but was told that was national. 12,000 in Canberra would more than double our unemployment. This would turn Canberra into a pretty tough place to live for a while.

What Joe Hockey said on ABC News 24 was that 12,000 public service jobs would go BY NATURAL ATTRITION so it is not going to happen overnight which blows your doubling the ACT unemployment rate out of the water.
At the same time, job vacancies in the public service have fallen dramatically in the past two years under Labor. Do you honestly beleive that if Labor are re-elected in September that they won’t continue to sap the public service emeployment pool?

This. If the Libs are elected they will do things like freeze recruitment, offer VRs, and keep efficiency dividends to meet their figures over time. It won’t be a case of picking 12,000 names out of a hat telling them to clean out their desks by the end of the day. Not the end of-the-world sort of stuff people like this:

Jim Jones said :

Yeah, the libs are gonna get rid of 12,000 jobs totally *cough* “naturally”. Nothing to see here, move along.

would have you think. People like that also conveniently forget the 4,000 jobs cut in the last 12 months or so by the Labor government. You see, when Labor do it people like him call it “sensible decision making” and “efficiency dividends”. When Liberal do it, it’s “axing the APS” and “slashing and burning jobs”.

Yeah, the libs are gonna get rid of 12,000 jobs totally *cough* “naturally”. Nothing to see here, move along.

pepmeup said :

Big Joe Hockey was on Allan Jones yesterday, I don’t listen to him but Latika Bourke tweeted a link to the interview http://www.2gb.com/audioplayer/9080 you only need to listen to the first minute or so, Joe says 12,000 public service jobs to go in Canberra. I have heard 12,000 before but was told that was national. 12,000 in Canberra would more than double our unemployment. This would turn Canberra into a pretty tough place to live for a while.

What Joe Hockey said on ABC News 24 was that 12,000 public service jobs would go BY NATURAL ATTRITION so it is not going to happen overnight which blows your doubling the ACT unemployment rate out of the water.
At the same time, job vacancies in the public service have fallen dramatically in the past two years under Labor. Do you honestly beleive that if Labor are re-elected in September that they won’t continue to sap the public service emeployment pool?

Big Joe Hockey was on Allan Jones yesterday, I don’t listen to him but Latika Bourke tweeted a link to the interview http://www.2gb.com/audioplayer/9080 you only need to listen to the first minute or so, Joe says 12,000 public service jobs to go in Canberra. I have heard 12,000 before but was told that was national. 12,000 in Canberra would more than double our unemployment. This would turn Canberra into a pretty tough place to live for a while.

Darkfalz said :

justin heywood said :

farnarkler said :

I’d like to see enough public servants got rid off that the property market collapses, lowering house prices to realistic levels.

I love this mentality. Ignoring the grief that a housing market collapse would cause for everyone who owns a house (it’s all about me!), do you seriously imagine that such a financial calamity could occur, and everything else would stay the same? Do you really believe that YOU alone wil be unaffected by a crash and thus get that nice little inner-city apartment for a song?

If you don’t earn enough now to buy a good house in a good suburb, you almost certainly won’t be able to do it when the market ‘collapses’ either.

The grief would only really apply to the people who’ve taken on massive debt and own (on paper) far too many properties. They could all afford to take a massive haircut. I’d like to see negative gearing phased out at one property per year down to a maximum of maybe 2. That would be a good start.

That’s an astonishingly naive point of view.

banco said :

Rollersk8r said :

justin heywood said :

farnarkler said :

I’d like to see enough public servants got rid off that the property market collapses, lowering house prices to realistic levels.

I love this mentality. Ignoring the grief that a housing market collapse would cause for everyone who owns a house (it’s all about me!), do you seriously imagine that such a financial calamity could occur, and everything else would stay the same? Do you really believe that YOU alone wil be unaffected by a crash and thus get that nice little inner-city apartment for a song?

If you don’t earn enough now to buy a good house in a good suburb, you almost certainly won’t be able to do it when the market ‘collapses’ either.

Spot on.

You could say “it’s all about me” with regards to house owners who want house prices to stay high. The bottom line is the interest of house owners and people who don’t own houses aren’t aligned.

Exactly. The market should be geared towards owner-occupiers first and foremost, investors second.

justin heywood said :

farnarkler said :

I’d like to see enough public servants got rid off that the property market collapses, lowering house prices to realistic levels.

I love this mentality. Ignoring the grief that a housing market collapse would cause for everyone who owns a house (it’s all about me!), do you seriously imagine that such a financial calamity could occur, and everything else would stay the same? Do you really believe that YOU alone wil be unaffected by a crash and thus get that nice little inner-city apartment for a song?

If you don’t earn enough now to buy a good house in a good suburb, you almost certainly won’t be able to do it when the market ‘collapses’ either.

The grief would only really apply to the people who’ve taken on massive debt and own (on paper) far too many properties. They could all afford to take a massive haircut. I’d like to see negative gearing phased out at one property per year down to a maximum of maybe 2. That would be a good start.

Useless middle-level managers shouldn’t be making any big purchases any time soon.

LSWCHP said :

banco said :

The “they’ll get rid of people and then hire them back a year later as contractors or APS staff” seems optimistic to me.

I heard that strategy expressed by a senior public servant only a few weeks ago. They’re planning for lots of cuts in the department (potentially in the thousands), and their plan is to replace all the APS job losses with contractors as far as possible.

I’m really not sure how that will pan out.

I can’t imagine it will pan out too well, unless Finance forgets to cut the funding which currently supports the staff in question.

Rollersk8r said :

justin heywood said :

farnarkler said :

I’d like to see enough public servants got rid off that the property market collapses, lowering house prices to realistic levels.

I love this mentality. Ignoring the grief that a housing market collapse would cause for everyone who owns a house (it’s all about me!), do you seriously imagine that such a financial calamity could occur, and everything else would stay the same? Do you really believe that YOU alone wil be unaffected by a crash and thus get that nice little inner-city apartment for a song?

If you don’t earn enough now to buy a good house in a good suburb, you almost certainly won’t be able to do it when the market ‘collapses’ either.

Spot on.

You could say “it’s all about me” with regards to house owners who want house prices to stay high. The bottom line is the interest of house owners and people who don’t own houses aren’t aligned.

justin heywood said :

farnarkler said :

I’d like to see enough public servants got rid off that the property market collapses, lowering house prices to realistic levels.

I love this mentality. Ignoring the grief that a housing market collapse would cause for everyone who owns a house (it’s all about me!), do you seriously imagine that such a financial calamity could occur, and everything else would stay the same? Do you really believe that YOU alone wil be unaffected by a crash and thus get that nice little inner-city apartment for a song?

If you don’t earn enough now to buy a good house in a good suburb, you almost certainly won’t be able to do it when the market ‘collapses’ either.

Spot on.

banco said :

The “they’ll get rid of people and then hire them back a year later as contractors or APS staff” seems optimistic to me.

I heard that strategy expressed by a senior public servant only a few weeks ago. They’re planning for lots of cuts in the department (potentially in the thousands), and their plan is to replace all the APS job losses with contractors as far as possible.

I’m really not sure how that will pan out.

dungfungus said :

But Community and Public Sector Union national secretary Nadine Flood says that will do significant damage.

Of course, if Abbott said he was going to increase the APS by 10,000 Ms Flood would say the exact same thing.

Remembering that, this is the union that, when faced with cuts to the APS by the ALP some two or so years ago, marched upon, wait for it, Gary Humphries’ office.

Let’s be clear about this. Abbott makes no secret of his views about slashing the PS. And yet, there is no doubt Gillard and Swan et al will do the same given the amount of backtracking and rescinding of current programs we see at present. Apart from that, they’ve been surreptitiously cutting for the past years anyway under their so called ‘efficiency dividend’.

Canberra will take a huge hit no matter what. Our elected officials, from either side, are completely irrelevant and therefore utterly impotent in this matter.

Excellent analysis.

+1.

banco said :

Based on this looks like they are going to get rid of 400 SES.:

with very generous redundancy payouts?

Based on this looks like they are going to get rid of 400 SES.:

http://www.news.com.au/money/wayne-swan-to-skin-the-fat-cats/story-e6frfmci-1226640046866

But Community and Public Sector Union national secretary Nadine Flood says that will do significant damage.

Of course, if Abbott said he was going to increase the APS by 10,000 Ms Flood would say the exact same thing.

Remembering that, this is the union that, when faced with cuts to the APS by the ALP some two or so years ago, marched upon, wait for it, Gary Humphries’ office.

Let’s be clear about this. Abbott makes no secret of his views about slashing the PS. And yet, there is no doubt Gillard and Swan et al will do the same given the amount of backtracking and rescinding of current programs we see at present. Apart from that, they’ve been surreptitiously cutting for the past years anyway under their so called ‘efficiency dividend’.

Canberra will take a huge hit no matter what. Our elected officials, from either side, are completely irrelevant and therefore utterly impotent in this matter.

Excellent analysis.

Does this help?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-08/public-service-cuts-better-under-coalition/4677994?section=act

One more thing. Job cuts in the APS are never about efficiency or trimming the fat”. It’s all about numbers. It may start off all noble at the top, but when management have to cut numbers, that’s all they do. Who leaves a job when there are hiring freezes? Mostly the excellent employable staff. Who takes redundancies? Mostly the staff who have been there a long time and have all the corporate knowledge. Some redundancies are good and many bad. How can an organisation perform better if it has to do the same task with less people?

I laugh at all the people who think that cutting the APS will have any positive results for Australia, let alone Canberra. It results in less services and longer wait times. It also means that it takes much longer to implement any Government policy, because there are no “spare” staff (I consider these staff to be doing lower priority tasks) to assign to the new program, so we go around the hiring new staff merry-go-round.

You don’t work for the APS, but perhaps volunteer for a Labor candidate in your spare time?

All just a political beat up as usual. Labor are already cutting jobs disguised as efficiency dividends. No matter who is in power as a new government, there will be job losses. As with any company, a cut, snip and reorganise keeps things in reasonable shape.

As for moving jobs out of Canberra, I believe his words were something about moving parts of agencies that deliver services to a location where the services are being delivered. There’s little chance of them picking up and moving key departments.

Having carefully read all these comments, I am still of the view that it will not be pretty and that Senator Zed (assuming Eric’s doughty efforts help him to fend off the naughty challenge from SS) may, for his own safety, need to spend most of his time in a witness protection program – being wheeled out only for crucial Senate votes.

farnarkler said :

I’d like to see enough public servants got rid off that the property market collapses, lowering house prices to realistic levels.

I love this mentality. Ignoring the grief that a housing market collapse would cause for everyone who owns a house (it’s all about me!), do you seriously imagine that such a financial calamity could occur, and everything else would stay the same? Do you really believe that YOU alone wil be unaffected by a crash and thus get that nice little inner-city apartment for a song?

If you don’t earn enough now to buy a good house in a good suburb, you almost certainly won’t be able to do it when the market ‘collapses’ either.

gungsuperstar said :

I can’t begin to say how surprised I am that there isn’t more fear in this thread – I had always assumed The Riot Act comments were full of public servants.

…

I’ll avoid getting too political – but as far as I can tell, an Abbott-led Government spells disaster for Canberra. Nothing positive will come of this for Canberrans, for their families, or for their businesses.

One positive is that without all the people working, petrol prices should come down!

But seriously, I agree with what you said. I am a public servant because I enjoy my work and believe that what I am doing contributes to the Australian society positively. If I did not have a job in the APS, I would leave Canberra. For this reason, I chose to sell my house last year and I now rent an inner North apartment. Now I have no fear of loosing my job, as I can just leave Canberra.

I will not pity private enterprise in Canberra that has been ripping off the APS for years. Canberra will vote in one Labor and one Liberal Senator, so in that way, it deserves what is coming. No big payout for me, but I’ll take my hard earned money and go live somewhere cheaper and take a job in private enterprise somewhere to relax and not use my brain (like a bank!!!!!!).

The “they’ll get rid of people and then hire them back a year later as contractors or APS staff” seems optimistic to me. Howard stopped really caring about public service numbers after his first term as there was just so much money sloshing around there was no pressing need to keep a watchful eye on numbers of APS employees. I don’t think the next 5 years will see a repeat of that.

johnboy said :

Big cuts mean some people leave town. So real estate gets a break. Homeowners need to sit tight for a few years.

But thousands of public servants with a big payout in their hands will chance their arm starting a new business.

And in a couple of years, if history is any guide, they’ll be back in their old jobs as contractors earning even more.

It’s a time of flux, but also some significant opportunity.

On the issue of starting new businesses, back in 1984 a business lecturer told me to start a shop-fitter business in the ACT for that reason (he also said the new businesses quickly go out of business). The family business has moved to Sydney.

Our Division is already spreading staff thin and moving people around to try and cover any gaping holes. However, this can only go so far and is really only a temporary fix – you can’t do it for long or people burn out.
In our particular area, we are probably safe from being cut completely as our role is legislatively prescribed. However, staff are worried, as ‘natural attrition’ is biting and there is now insufficient staff to actually do the job properly. We are now significantly understaffed and therefore significantly less efficient. If more than one staff member gets sick at once, it’ll be panic stations. So if our area gets cut more, say, if Mr Rabbit gets in, we will have a big problem.

I can’t begin to say how surprised I am that there isn’t more fear in this thread – I had always assumed The Riot Act comments were full of public servants.

This article in yesterdays Fin Review should frighten the life out of everyone:

http://www.afr.com/p/national/hockey_flags_severe_welfare_and_k97QJUdU66Ux04f3Os9XMM

Cuts to welfare and service delivery, but they won’t release many of the details until after the election. This is the Campbell Newman school of public service cuts – stay silent, and then screw the people after they’re voted in.

14,000 Queensland public servants didn’t expect to be sacked within 6 weeks of the election last year…

Anyway, here’s what we can expect:

– 12,000 is the tip of the iceberg. So far they’ve targeted DHS (Centrelink), DEEWR (the “Department of Education” doesn’t run any schools), DOHA (“the Federal Government doesn’t run any hospitals), and what’s left of Climate Change for the axe. When you consider how big Centrelink is, if they move them into Post Offices… that well over 12,000 just from there. It’s worth noting that Hockey has previously said “up to 20,000”. When you consider that Hockey can’t even be consistent within his own messaging, and you consider that Newman was doing much the same before the Qld election, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that 1996 recession-causing cuts will be the order of the day.

– People have short memories. The Howard Government’s 1996 slash and burn led Canberra into immediate recession. The selfish people with small minds among us (of who I didn’t expect Johnboy to be one) will revel in the crash that the housing market will feel – think harder. 20,000 people without work is 20,000 people on welfare (at least in the short term), it’s 20,000 less people with disposable income to spend in your shops, it’s 20,000 families that have to replace an income somehow, it’s 20,000 families possibly leaving Canberra.

– Ironically, private industry heads are often the biggest public service bashers – they seem not to understand that high levels of employment actually furthers their business, and furthers other investments (eg. housing) that they may have.

I’ll avoid getting too political – but as far as I can tell, an Abbott-led Government spells disaster for Canberra. Nothing positive will come of this for Canberrans, for their families, or for their businesses.

I’d like to see enough public servants got rid off that the property market collapses, lowering house prices to realistic levels.

If you guys are all a bunch of geniuses why are you arguing on the internet?

devils_advocate said :

pepmeup said :

Problem is most people cant really go a year with out earning money, Im not sure the Commbank will let me take a year off payments, just until Canberra bounces back. .

Actually I think Rudd brokered some agreement during the GFC that provided exactly this – a repayment holiday of up to 12 months (I think the interest still accrued and repayments got rolled back into the principal). Also, a lot of people would get the equivalent of at least 6 months full pay once annual leave, long service leave and redundancy payout is taken into account. Maybe a year.

Also unemployment rate in canberra is very low so easy to find a new job (even if slightly less money in the short-run).

This is true for people who work in APS, but what about all those who work in services and retail that is supported by the APS Staff. People have already stopped spending, what happens when a few more jobs get cut? prepare to lose a few of those little businesses you like to visit. No long service payment to their staff.

pepmeup said :

Problem is most people cant really go a year with out earning money, Im not sure the Commbank will let me take a year off payments, just until Canberra bounces back. .

Actually I think Rudd brokered some agreement during the GFC that provided exactly this – a repayment holiday of up to 12 months (I think the interest still accrued and repayments got rolled back into the principal). Also, a lot of people would get the equivalent of at least 6 months full pay once annual leave, long service leave and redundancy payout is taken into account. Maybe a year.

Also unemployment rate in canberra is very low so easy to find a new job (even if slightly less money in the short-run).

zorro29 said :

ha, how pitiful are you? yes, cos how people write on forums and social media is an /exact representation/ of their intellect or how they write in /all/ situations…i have an IQ of 168 so thanks for your sturdy analysis.

Yeah? So what? I did an online “What Friends character are you?” Quiz.

I’m Monica.

zorro29 said :

oh no! someone on the internet doubts my intelligence!! this is terrible.

Well actually it was at least 2 people in this thread, but let’s assume numeracy wasn’t a strong point and you got your points on linguistics and logic…

Oh, wait.

Nevermind.

The theme seems to be that we will have a little pain for a year or so then bounce back to normal. Problem is most people cant really go a year with out earning money, Im not sure the Commbank will let me take a year off payments, just until Canberra bounces back. Also for anyone who has purchased a property in the last few years there is a real possibility of them owning more than it is worth. owing more than your house is worth is ok when you have a steady income coming in but should you or your partner lose their job then say good bye to your house.

I think we are very lucky in Canberra and a lot of people probably earn too much, but I take no joy it that being taken away suddenly. I really worry about the mobile dog wash people, there is no way a city can support the number of these we have in Canberra, not to mention the Jims Everything francises.

I hope that any change is slow and not a huge attack. I don’t think any politician can really help, other than the greens, but I find it hard to vote for them, and I cant see them beating the Libs to the second spot in Canberra.

I have heard it said by a lot of people, that the second Canberra Senate spot may in fact be the most important. With Lundlam losing his senate spot in WA and Sarah Hanson Young losing in SA (this brings me much Joy). Should the libs hold in Canberra they will have control of both houses. So a vote for the greens in Canberra as unpalatable as that is to a lot of us may be worth a thought.

devils_advocate said :

zorro29 said :

you want a job? we can always use more pedants…

they say a joke isn’t funny if you have to explain it, but intellect being what it is…

Someone with an IQ of 168 would have a lot of career options far superior to the APS. Also, very smart people don’t survive for long in the APS, because they are percieved as a threat and are often unable to overcome the cognitive dissonance of having to pay lip service to inherently stupid ideas and aspirational philosophies that achieve the exact opposite of their stated aims.

So either you have redefined the concept of underachieving, or you are lying about your intelligence, or you based your claim of IQ on some online test.

Based on your posts thus far, I’ll put my money on the latter of these alternatives.

Some high IQ people do very well, but some do not (often due to arrogance and laziness). Be careful with assumptions…

devils_advocate said :

zorro29 said :

you want a job? we can always use more pedants…

they say a joke isn’t funny if you have to explain it, but intellect being what it is…

Someone with an IQ of 168 would have a lot of career options far superior to the APS. Also, very smart people don’t survive for long in the APS, because they are percieved as a threat and are often unable to overcome the cognitive dissonance of having to pay lip service to inherently stupid ideas and aspirational philosophies that achieve the exact opposite of their stated aims.

So either you have redefined the concept of underachieving, or you are lying about your intelligence, or you based your claim of IQ on some online test.

Based on your posts thus far, I’ll put my money on the latter of these alternatives.

oh no! someone on the internet doubts my intelligence!! this is terrible.

i understood you the first time dear – no need to explain – and, if you must know, yes working in the APS is exceptionally dreary and mediocre despite being very successful (or at least what passes for it here).

/some/ people just want different work experiences in private, public and academic sectors – may be a shock to you

zorro29 said :

you want a job? we can always use more pedants…

they say a joke isn’t funny if you have to explain it, but intellect being what it is…

Someone with an IQ of 168 would have a lot of career options far superior to the APS. Also, very smart people don’t survive for long in the APS, because they are percieved as a threat and are often unable to overcome the cognitive dissonance of having to pay lip service to inherently stupid ideas and aspirational philosophies that achieve the exact opposite of their stated aims.

So either you have redefined the concept of underachieving, or you are lying about your intelligence, or you based your claim of IQ on some online test.

Based on your posts thus far, I’ll put my money on the latter of these alternatives.

devils_advocate said :

zorro29 said :

ha, how pitiful are you? yes, cos how people write on forums and social media is an /exact representation/ of their intellect or how they write in /all/ situations…i have an IQ of 168 so thanks for your sturdy analysis.

IQ of 168… got job in APS.

Winning at both life and plausibility.

Are you a millionaire cowboy astronaut too?

face palm….very very tedious

EvanJames said :

However, this time, Abbott gets the APS which has had cuts imposed via efficiency dividends every 6 months, since Rudd. Rather than cutting programs, they’ve been just removing money from departmental budgets and making them chip around the edges to trim expenditure. So it’s been on things like staffing, travel, stores, temporary staff and contractors, rather than strategic savings.

So, with Abbott and Hockey spruiking all the blood they’re going to let, I’m wondering, when faced with the reality of a much thinner APS, and a much larger population than in 96, will they continue with their swingeing cuts? Or will they become strategic, using program cuts to achieve their aim?.

This. For all the complaints etc, Departments are running pretty lean.

The choices for Abbot will be cut and suffer service levels (including policy development) or cut programs. The last thing you want is to keep programs and not have the resources to do them properly – that backfires on everyone. Develop your paid maternity leave scheme wrongly and …. Abolish the carbon tax and wont unwind it properly…

Now cutting programs will have the ‘double whammy’ of also reducing APS requirements. Its just finding programs to cut.

I know of plenty of programs that could be cut without affecting me in the slightest in the short term (employment programs for long term unemployed, or regional infrastructure development grants, I mean most DFAT overseas offices etc etc). But that is not to say it wont affect a lot of other people and not to say there wont be consequences (increased crime, or increased number of people on the dole etc). So its not such an easy thing to cut programs.

zorro29 said :

devils_advocate said :

zorro29 said :

ha, how pitiful are you? yes, cos how people write on forums and social media is an /exact representation/ of their intellect or how they write in /all/ situations…i have an IQ of 168 so thanks for your sturdy analysis.

IQ of 168… got job in APS.

Winning at both life and plausibility.

you want a job? we can always use more pedants…

Clearly. Even people with basic literacy would help.

zorro29 said :

ha, how pitiful are you? yes, cos how people write on forums and social media is an /exact representation/ of their intellect or how they write in /all/ situations…i have an IQ of 168 so thanks for your sturdy analysis.
#11 – that’s State Govt genius

Whatever they’re paying you, it’s too much.

devils_advocate said :

zorro29 said :

ha, how pitiful are you? yes, cos how people write on forums and social media is an /exact representation/ of their intellect or how they write in /all/ situations…i have an IQ of 168 so thanks for your sturdy analysis.

IQ of 168… got job in APS.

Winning at both life and plausibility.

you want a job? we can always use more pedants…

Why is there all this focus on what Zed will do?

I can’t think of anything meaningful that Lundy or Humphries has done for Canberra while in office. Because we only have two senate seats and they are pretty much locked in, no one cares about Canberra.

zorro29 said :

ha, how pitiful are you? yes, cos how people write on forums and social media is an /exact representation/ of their intellect or how they write in /all/ situations…i have an IQ of 168 so thanks for your sturdy analysis.

IQ of 168… got job in APS.

Winning at both life and plausibility.

Deref said :

“You here numbers like 20,000 jobs from Canberra…”

I hope that none of the job cuts involve teachers.

😀 just so you know it’s not completely missed

zorro29 said :

c_c™ said :

zorro29 said :

retail rely on the APS? more like “have a captive audience so gouge away for poor quality”….

i would like to see a huge purge in the APS cos a large portion of people are useless and many jobs have no impact on anyone (or could be performed by fewer people)…and impacting the retail sector would be an added bonus cos you’ve had it way too good for way too long – the pricing for quality/service/range is outrageous (for everything). if you provided honest and good value output, i might feel bad for you…but, alas, you don’t.

i work in the APS and no one is particularly nervous about cuts…cos they know either way they get a massive payout…they’re more nervous about shifting portfolio responsibilities and the resulting machinery of government changes.

Yeah, like anyone is going to take someone who can’t capitalise ‘I’ and uses the phrase ‘cos’ seriously. At least you prove there is some fat to be trimmed from the public service.

ha, how pitiful are you? yes, cos how people write on forums and social media is an /exact representation/ of their intellect or how they write in /all/ situations…i have an IQ of 168 so thanks for your sturdy analysis.

#11 – that’s State Govt genius

Well your edudite argument convinced me

c_c™ said :

zorro29 said :

retail rely on the APS? more like “have a captive audience so gouge away for poor quality”….

i would like to see a huge purge in the APS cos a large portion of people are useless and many jobs have no impact on anyone (or could be performed by fewer people)…and impacting the retail sector would be an added bonus cos you’ve had it way too good for way too long – the pricing for quality/service/range is outrageous (for everything). if you provided honest and good value output, i might feel bad for you…but, alas, you don’t.

i work in the APS and no one is particularly nervous about cuts…cos they know either way they get a massive payout…they’re more nervous about shifting portfolio responsibilities and the resulting machinery of government changes.

Yeah, like anyone is going to take someone who can’t capitalise ‘I’ and uses the phrase ‘cos’ seriously. At least you prove there is some fat to be trimmed from the public service.

ha, how pitiful are you? yes, cos how people write on forums and social media is an /exact representation/ of their intellect or how they write in /all/ situations…i have an IQ of 168 so thanks for your sturdy analysis.

#11 – that’s State Govt genius

The recent statements about going after the various qangos and non-quangos delivering various services I found rather interesting. Qangos and non-profits sprang up after Howard, as they were favoured to deliver services and policy; they could be contracted and paid to do something, and then cut loose if necessary.

It was interesting to hear entities like Medicare Local named as one to go, as that is actually the re-badged Australian General Practice Network, AKA The Divisions of General Practice. They came up with the Primary Healthcare Network, sold the idea to the Labor government, and then got to set it up and be it. So I’m wondering if it’s the program Medicare Locals/PHCN, or the whole organisation, which has been around in various forms since the 90s.

I’m genuinely puzzled by their targetting qangos, it’s frustrating when they cynically bleed out snippets of information, and no properly-forumulated policy. I guess it worked for Howard, and they’re obediently following their training. I think they’re probably going to do a lot of damage.

johnboy said :

Not very many teachers employed by the APS.

Well there’s your problem right there!

Dilandach said :

The figure that I’ve heard those close to the decision makers is for the ACT it’ll be 4% across the board cut of APS positions in the ACT for the first round with the insinuation that there is more after.

but yes, JC is correct. Its the merry-go-round of the APS and change of government that always happens. Team blue come in, say the APS was full of waste under team red, cut positions but then find they can’t handle the workload and then need to hire contractors which they pay higher rates for. Then to reduce costs those contractors are offered APS positions. Then team red come in and say the APS is full of waste under team blue… and around and around we go.

With serious and repeated talk of a Commission of Audit, a la Queensland, I expect there certainly would be specific, and possibly quite significant, cuts following any initial across-the-board cuts. After the cutting and squeezing of the last few years, even an initial cut of 4% would surely be felt, unless there is a genuine reduction of functions, and the flow-on effects to the private sector, particularly businesses which rely on discretionary spending, will not be pleasant. One saving grace may be that stagnant or falling housing prices may discourage some (early) retirees from leaving Canberra, in the hope of an eventual recovery in the market.

DrKoresh said :

I wouldn’t trust Zed to look after a pet rock, JS.

OK, that gets the Mars Bar for best comment.

johnboy said :

Big cuts mean some people leave town. So real estate gets a break. Homeowners need to sit tight for a few years.

But thousands of public servants with a big payout in their hands will chance their arm starting a new business.

And in a couple of years, if history is any guide, they’ll be back in their old jobs as contractors earning even more.

It’s a time of flux, but also some significant opportunity.

That’s a good summary.

I’m watching the whole thing with interest. Abbott and Hockey learnt their trade from Howard. When Howard took over in 96, he came in behind many years of Hawke/Keating Labor government, so the APS was fairly plump. I can’t remember the eventual numbers but the figure of 20,000 is in my head, of federal public servants who lost their jobs as a direct result (this included many thousands from the CES, which had over 300 offices nationally, and all lost their jobs).

However, this time, Abbott gets the APS which has had cuts imposed via efficiency dividends every 6 months, since Rudd. Rather than cutting programs, they’ve been just removing money from departmental budgets and making them chip around the edges to trim expenditure. So it’s been on things like staffing, travel, stores, temporary staff and contractors, rather than strategic savings.

Anyone watching APS recruitment over the past 3-odd years will have seen the numbers of jobs shrinking, and many positions being contract-style.

So, with Abbott and Hockey spruiking all the blood they’re going to let, I’m wondering, when faced with the reality of a much thinner APS, and a much larger population than in 96, will they continue with their swingeing cuts? Or will they become strategic, using program cuts to achieve their aim?

As for Zed defending Canberra, you have GOT to be kidding. Like Humphries did? That turned out well.

OTOH, they could move a department out to Quangers, and staff it very easily.

zorro29 said :

retail rely on the APS? more like “have a captive audience so gouge away for poor quality”….

i would like to see a huge purge in the APS cos a large portion of people are useless and many jobs have no impact on anyone (or could be performed by fewer people)…and impacting the retail sector would be an added bonus cos you’ve had it way too good for way too long – the pricing for quality/service/range is outrageous (for everything). if you provided honest and good value output, i might feel bad for you…but, alas, you don’t.

i work in the APS and no one is particularly nervous about cuts…cos they know either way they get a massive payout…they’re more nervous about shifting portfolio responsibilities and the resulting machinery of government changes.

Please, please don’t sack the teachers.

“You here numbers like 20,000 jobs from Canberra…”

I hope that none of the job cuts involve teachers.

I seem to recall a Labor leader by the name of Kev pledging to take a meataxe to the public service in the not too distant past. Since then real numbers in many departments have fallen significantly because of the efficiency dividend, natural attrition, terrible workplace culture and poor management. The newly created agencies have held some of the numbers, but recent MoGing would have seen Climate Change whittled down to 3 hippies and an economist anyway.

The truth is that there is a LOT of dead wood and bloated job roles in most departments. I (from outside the APS) commonly deal with SES who have no strategic thought process or forethought, EL2s who have little policy knowledge and even less leadership ability, EL1s who perform very basic contract management roles that should really be done by a 4, basic administrative roles are performed by 5s and 4s because 1s and 2s are an endangered species.

So I say to Joe and Tony cut away. Create a lean, effective and productive public service that supports policy implementation and basic front-line services.

Relocating public servants is not a new idea and nothing to worry about, in my opinion. It’s a very popular and superficial line – used by both sides of politics – that public servants should be among the “real people” that need services. While some agencies are now primarily based in Melbourne or Sydney, the numbers simply don’t add up when it comes to relocating entire departments.

I wouldn’t trust Zed to look after a pet rock, JS.

The figure that I’ve heard those close to the decision makers is for the ACT it’ll be 4% across the board cut of APS positions in the ACT for the first round with the insinuation that there is more after.

but yes, JC is correct. Its the merry-go-round of the APS and change of government that always happens. Team blue come in, say the APS was full of waste under team red, cut positions but then find they can’t handle the workload and then need to hire contractors which they pay higher rates for. Then to reduce costs those contractors are offered APS positions. Then team red come in and say the APS is full of waste under team blue… and around and around we go.

zorro29 said :

retail rely on the APS? more like “have a captive audience so gouge away for poor quality”….

i would like to see a huge purge in the APS cos a large portion of people are useless and many jobs have no impact on anyone (or could be performed by fewer people)…and impacting the retail sector would be an added bonus cos you’ve had it way too good for way too long – the pricing for quality/service/range is outrageous (for everything). if you provided honest and good value output, i might feel bad for you…but, alas, you don’t.

i work in the APS and no one is particularly nervous about cuts…cos they know either way they get a massive payout…they’re more nervous about shifting portfolio responsibilities and the resulting machinery of government changes.

Yeah, like anyone is going to take someone who can’t capitalise ‘I’ and uses the phrase ‘cos’ seriously. At least you prove there is some fat to be trimmed from the public service.

It may be that the Abbott Opposition is simply being more open about its intentions than was the “relaxed and comfortable” Howard Opposition in the lead up to the 1996 election, but I think there is somewhat more to it than that. I believe there is much more fervour and determination this time, and note that this Opposition frontbench, having been out of power for less than six years, has more people with experience as ministers, junior ministers, parl secs etc. who should thus have a somewhat better idea of where the bodies are buried, so to speak (and thus will be that much harder to snow).

Abbott has so far resisted the IPA forces on his parental leave scheme, but I would guess that he will take much more notice of dry arguments and ideas when it comes to public administration, particularly with less than rosy Budget forecasts for the coming years. It may not be possible to give effect to some of the more radical ideas floating around, but I think an Abbott government will, as the saying goes, not die wondering. I certainly don’t share the sanguine views of those who say that there will just be some trimming, and some shuffling between the public and private sectors, and that any real cuts will be restored over time. This time, I reckon, it really will be different – Canberrans are increasingly sensing that, and are adjusting their spending habits accordingly.

retail rely on the APS? more like “have a captive audience so gouge away for poor quality”….

i would like to see a huge purge in the APS cos a large portion of people are useless and many jobs have no impact on anyone (or could be performed by fewer people)…and impacting the retail sector would be an added bonus cos you’ve had it way too good for way too long – the pricing for quality/service/range is outrageous (for everything). if you provided honest and good value output, i might feel bad for you…but, alas, you don’t.

i work in the APS and no one is particularly nervous about cuts…cos they know either way they get a massive payout…they’re more nervous about shifting portfolio responsibilities and the resulting machinery of government changes.

Mostly it is smoke and mirrors. They cut APS then next week employ contractors. It will be different if Abbott gets in with a big purge to show the country he means business but by the end of the first term it will be back to normal. Of course the purge will effect Canberra the most

One point of order what Abbott has being saying this week is not moving jobs to the regions but creating new jobs for the disability insurance scheme outside of Canberra. Slight difference there.