Crime on the run

JonnieWalker said :

I’d bet my house that if you close down pubs and clubs at midnight you would see a decrease in both property crime and assults

Well that poor young guy who had his life support turned off was attacked at 9pm wasn’t he, so clearly people are loaded well before midnight. In fact the trend I’ve observed is all about ‘pre-drinks’, just about all the main uni events have pre-drinks now. Invariably pre-drinks seems to involve chugging down spirits and drinking glasses from cheap arse 4L casks of wine.

Choosing an arbitrary time to lock people out won’t do anything. Certainly wouldn’t have stopped the guys in high school who used to take some bottles of Jack down to Pine Island in the early hours and then vandalise Tuggers, including egging the Police station around 2am.

Who the hell is jonnie walker? He has blown in from nowhere and is posting on every subject like there is no tomorrow. Earn your stripes you mouthpiece… Lol

JonnieWalker said :

I’d bet my house that if you close down pubs and clubs at midnight you would see a decrease in both property crime and assults

Why would you? C***s would simply go out two hours earlier than they used to and drink a similar amount of piss anyway…

johnboy said :

There’s a global trend of lowering crime being driven by many factors not least of which is ubiquitous survielance.

Not to mention reducing lead exposure

Comic_and_Gamer_Nerd said :

It is entirely possible that number fudging helps the better results.

Number fudging doesn’t work on surveys. Well, not unless the ABS is in on the game too. (Which they might be for inflation, GSP and un/employment, but crime being primarily a State issue I think they are unaffected by the will of their political masters).

IP

A_Cog said :

What a load of rubbish.

“The ACT has seen a drop of a third in crime reports over the last five years from 43,139 in 2009 to 28,976 in 2013, excluding Traffic Infringement Notices and road fatalities or collisions with injury.”
– changing which suburbs were included in the old Patrol Zones (remember them?), getting rid of Patrol Zones altogether, and changing stat categories helped twist these stats. 2012 crime numbers in my suburb were well over double my 2008 and 2009 numbers. The 2013 quarterly numbers released by ACT Policing frequently departed (were different, for some strange reason) from other sources.

“The continued downward trend in crime is pleasing and demonstrates that our targeted crime reduction strategies are effective…”
– or maybe, it’s the result of all the good work of Justice Nield, the NSW-import who thinks jails are for jailing.

“The latest crime statistics also show a drop of 14 per cent in reports of crime across the ACT when comparing the October to December quarter of 2013 to the same quarter in the previous year.”
– that’s because 2012 was a TRULY SHOCKING year. In some suburbs, 2012 numbers were nearly TRIPLE the numbers for 2008 or 2009, and my 2013 results for car theft broke the record. But hey, ACT Policing don’t provide the 2008 stats anymore, so unless you’ve been logging the results for years, you can’t see how bad things got in 2011 and 2012.

“Members wishing to join or know more about ACT Neighbourhood Watch should visit its website…”
– is this because ACT Policing ain’t gonna be much help with their SHOCKINGLY LOW CLEARANCES? And because the crims they do catch get let off by rubbish judges, or get let out of AMC asap under minimum non-parole periods because the AMC is over-crowded.

Almost everything you just said is complete bollocks.

Having said that, I take no notice of crime stats.

It is entirely possible that number fudging helps the better results.

IrishPete said :

HiddenDragon said :

Re JonnieWalker’s comments at #2 to #5 (which I am a little surprised by, but don’t need references to accept) is there a view as to why our assault rate is so relatively high? Could much, if any, of the difference between the ACT and other jurisdictions be attributed to a greater propensity here to report and record assaults?

Try the reference I provided for an answer to both questions. The survey found a higher assault rate in the ACT than in NSW and Vic, and just a little higher than WA, but a fair bit lower than NT.

As it’s a survey, it’s not affected by reporting to police and police recording.

You can also compare the proportions in the survey who said they reported the last assault to the police, but those results are bit more variable. There is little or no research in Australia on police recording.

(I am citing overall assault rates, which includes threats.)

IP

AIC also has some good reports – but comparing the stats directly from the different juristictions also provides similar results.

HiddenDragon said :

Re JonnieWalker’s comments at #2 to #5 (which I am a little surprised by, but don’t need references to accept) is there a view as to why our assault rate is so relatively high? Could much, if any, of the difference between the ACT and other jurisdictions be attributed to a greater propensity here to report and record assaults?

Try the reference I provided for an answer to both questions. The survey found a higher assault rate in the ACT than in NSW and Vic, and just a little higher than WA, but a fair bit lower than NT.

As it’s a survey, it’s not affected by reporting to police and police recording.

You can also compare the proportions in the survey who said they reported the last assault to the police, but those results are bit more variable. There is little or no research in Australia on police recording.

(I am citing overall assault rates, which includes threats.)

IP

JonnieWalker said :

maxblues said :

gazket said :

Teenagers don’t bother robbing houses any more, it’s too much work. They just walk down the street pull out a knife and get a smart phone and wallet with instant cash.

Johnnie Walker Blue will have us closing down churches soon!

+1 to that!!

reducing alcohol conspumtion wouldnt be the only way to drive down anti-social behaviour, robberies and assaults – just one of easiest and most acceptable. I’d say mandatory sentencing and corporal punishment would also do the job but no deoderant dodging greenie voter is going to vote Jonnie Walker in on that platform in canberra

maxblues said :

gazket said :

Teenagers don’t bother robbing houses any more, it’s too much work. They just walk down the street pull out a knife and get a smart phone and wallet with instant cash.

Johnnie Walker Blue will have us closing down churches soon!

+1 to that!!

gazket said :

Teenagers don’t bother robbing houses any more, it’s too much work. They just walk down the street pull out a knife and get a smart phone and wallet with instant cash.

Yes, that happened near a church in Holt recently. Johnnie Walker Blue will have us closing down churches soon, and it must be petrol-sniffing that causes service station robberies!

HiddenDragon said :

Re JonnieWalker’s comments at #2 to #5 (which I am a little surprised by, but don’t need references to accept) is there a view as to why our assault rate is so relatively high? Could much, if any, of the difference between the ACT and other jurisdictions be attributed to a greater propensity here to report and record assaults?

Also – many people dont see assaults if you a) dont hang out in civic on friday nights and b) arnt responding to domestics (many of which also happen after boozy nights)

A_Cog said :

What a load of rubbish.

“The ACT has seen a drop of a third in crime reports over the last five years from 43,139 in 2009 to 28,976 in 2013, excluding Traffic Infringement Notices and road fatalities or collisions with injury.”
– changing which suburbs were included in the old Patrol Zones (remember them?), getting rid of Patrol Zones altogether, and changing stat categories helped twist these stats. 2012 crime numbers in my suburb were well over double my 2008 and 2009 numbers. The 2013 quarterly numbers released by ACT Policing frequently departed (were different, for some strange reason) from other sources.

“The continued downward trend in crime is pleasing and demonstrates that our targeted crime reduction strategies are effective…”
– or maybe, it’s the result of all the good work of Justice Nield, the NSW-import who thinks jails are for jailing.

“The latest crime statistics also show a drop of 14 per cent in reports of crime across the ACT when comparing the October to December quarter of 2013 to the same quarter in the previous year.”
– that’s because 2012 was a TRULY SHOCKING year. In some suburbs, 2012 numbers were nearly TRIPLE the numbers for 2008 or 2009, and my 2013 results for car theft broke the record. But hey, ACT Policing don’t provide the 2008 stats anymore, so unless you’ve been logging the results for years, you can’t see how bad things got in 2011 and 2012.

“Members wishing to join or know more about ACT Neighbourhood Watch should visit its website…”
– is this because ACT Policing ain’t gonna be much help with their SHOCKINGLY LOW CLEARANCES? And because the crims they do catch get let off by rubbish judges, or get let out of AMC asap under minimum non-parole periods because the AMC is over-crowded.

A lot of problems using police stats – ask a copper what they think of crime stats and how realistic they are.

HiddenDragon said :

Re JonnieWalker’s comments at #2 to #5 (which I am a little surprised by, but don’t need references to accept) is there a view as to why our assault rate is so relatively high? Could much, if any, of the difference between the ACT and other jurisdictions be attributed to a greater propensity here to report and record assaults?

It is really difficult to find stats comparing apples with apples (you sometimes need to get different stats from different reports from different years), and there are other complications for example ACT is primarily metro, and difficult to compare with NSW and this can’t be extrapolated to Sydney, but my view is as follows:
Taking NT out of the picture when we compare ACT we are talking about very small but all metro with less distinction within that metro area than Sydney. Comparisons are difficult on both a state and city level, and there is not a lot of faith in using police stats by themselves (plenty of articles on this) but i think using Canberra demographics to show a general trend towards assaults in new demographics will skew the numbers a bit. eg assault rates in women demographics and social class demographics increasing. – If you took the same demographics from Sydney you might get a similar response although policing and court approaches are a little different between states.

Research shows that longer custodial sentences dont work as a deterrent. The biggest factor in deterrence is (based on correlations) 1) the chance of the offender getting cought and 2) the chance of a custodial sentence (regardless of the length of the sentence).

NYC has had a really low rate compared to their high rate of the 80s due to better community policing, mandatory sentencing and various other initiaties – although there is a lot of arguement on why NYC rates have been brought down from the hights of the 80s.

Teenagers don’t bother robbing houses any more, it’s too much work. They just walk down the street pull out a knife and get a smart phone and wallet with instant cash.

Re JonnieWalker’s comments at #2 to #5 (which I am a little surprised by, but don’t need references to accept) is there a view as to why our assault rate is so relatively high? Could much, if any, of the difference between the ACT and other jurisdictions be attributed to a greater propensity here to report and record assaults?

What a load of rubbish.

“The ACT has seen a drop of a third in crime reports over the last five years from 43,139 in 2009 to 28,976 in 2013, excluding Traffic Infringement Notices and road fatalities or collisions with injury.”
– changing which suburbs were included in the old Patrol Zones (remember them?), getting rid of Patrol Zones altogether, and changing stat categories helped twist these stats. 2012 crime numbers in my suburb were well over double my 2008 and 2009 numbers. The 2013 quarterly numbers released by ACT Policing frequently departed (were different, for some strange reason) from other sources.

“The continued downward trend in crime is pleasing and demonstrates that our targeted crime reduction strategies are effective…”
– or maybe, it’s the result of all the good work of Justice Nield, the NSW-import who thinks jails are for jailing.

“The latest crime statistics also show a drop of 14 per cent in reports of crime across the ACT when comparing the October to December quarter of 2013 to the same quarter in the previous year.”
– that’s because 2012 was a TRULY SHOCKING year. In some suburbs, 2012 numbers were nearly TRIPLE the numbers for 2008 or 2009, and my 2013 results for car theft broke the record. But hey, ACT Policing don’t provide the 2008 stats anymore, so unless you’ve been logging the results for years, you can’t see how bad things got in 2011 and 2012.

“Members wishing to join or know more about ACT Neighbourhood Watch should visit its website…”
– is this because ACT Policing ain’t gonna be much help with their SHOCKINGLY LOW CLEARANCES? And because the crims they do catch get let off by rubbish judges, or get let out of AMC asap under minimum non-parole periods because the AMC is over-crowded.

JonnieWalker said :

I’d bet my house that if you close down pubs and clubs at midnight you would see a decrease in both property crime and assults

And I bet that if the judiciary did their f**king job we wouldn’t have such a high rate either

JonnieWalker said :

I’d bet my house that if you close down pubs and clubs at midnight you would see a decrease in both property crime and assults

Is it fully landscaped and conveniently located near a pub or club?

I’d bet my house that if you close down pubs and clubs at midnight you would see a decrease in both property crime and assults

JonnieWalker said :

Forgot to mention – a majority of these assults happen in or around licensed premises.

Not to take away from the good work white ribbon does against domestic violence – which for the most part probably doesnt get reported unfortunatly.

Forgot to mention – a majority of these assults happen in or around licensed premises.

It shows some promise. The assault rate is what is killing us though. ACT has the highest assult rate a in Australia after NT (on a state by state basis) – and although I’m sure Potts Point in Sydney has a high rate Canberra has a higher rate of assult than Sydney.

Of course Canberra, and Australia more widely has a higher assult rate (per capita) than NYC which is about a third of ours (not accounting for gun crime or murders). Let me know if anyone needs references.

That’s great.

The most recent ABS Crime Victimisation Survey http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/4530.02011-12?OpenDocument concurs, with significant reductions in break and enter and malicious damage in recent years (it only goes up to 2011-12 but a new report should be released soon.

However, it does suggest that break-ins have been partly replaced with attempted break-ins (or that some malicious damage is now being reported in the survey as attempted break-in). As there have been significant (in both senses of the word) reductions in the reporting of attempted break-ins, that could help explain a surprisingly dramatic reduction in reported crime.

This crime survey doesn’t measure the amount of crime well, but can measure trends in crime and in reporting of it – it only reports where people have been a victim at least once (it doesn’t easily give a full count of the number of incidents) and also doesn’t formally include businesses and government. And obviously excludes a whole range of crimes that police include in their stats.

IP