Is Canberra really warmer than it used to be?

That’s a lot of scientists.

If the number of scientists is relevant, why don’t you side with the position supported by the most scientists? Why do you believe this small minority of scientists, and not the rest?

I am surprised how many people are so against the climate change hypothesis when it’s pretty clear the Earth *is* heating up. Perhaps I can understand debate if humans are responsible, but to debate if the climate is changing? Hmm, seems like a difficult position to support.

Just tell me if we all need to move to New Zealand if we will ever see snow again, and if the glaciers disappear on Mount Wilhelm in Papua New Guinea before I get to see them, I’ll be back here rampaging against the sceptics!

WMC, they put it in beer, makes it bubble.

Damn – I just remembered I forgot to wear a red dress to the Belgian Beer Cafe yesterday for a free kriek.

That list of 31,000 supposed climate change skeptic scientists? How many of them do you think are actual climatologists? Try 40. Yep, about 0.1% of them actually stated to the petition organisers that they were climatologists. There are more entomologist (57) signatories than actual climate scientists. More ‘food scientists’ &74) than climatologists. And let’s go further: there are over 2,300 medical doctors on that list, and over 7,000 people with (civil) engineering degrees. I’m not saying these are stupid people by any stretch, just that they very, very, very likely have dick-all actual expertise when it comes to the global climate.

link

WMC, they put it in beer, makes it bubble.

If you can believe that, you’ll believe the rest of the ignorance fulfilling crap being spouted.

What gets me is I know some of the people panning the divide between considering CC plausable and considering it environmental hogwash, and their wanton support of the industries where they are still working for ‘the man’, busting their asses to make other people rich, grind, grind, grind, ahem – why ?

I noted on another thread – all they are is monkeys sitting in a tree. The monkey at the top has a big bag of peanuts, the only things that fall below are peanut scraps and poo. Even this analogy was ‘apparently’ not understood, where it seems reasonably simple to me.

On the other side of the fence, yes there are zealots. A sensible approach would be to recognise that CO2 and other emissions are now in the atmosphere, and that it is logical that they will have some form of effect – however that effect may not be as catastrophic as some may elude towards.

The last time there was an ice age, the Aboriginal of Australia was the most technologically savvy race on the planet (at least by their accounts).

This would suggest that the climate has changed, would it not?

I don’t know why I bite, but I will (again):

Nobody disagrees with this statement. However (and I’ll … type … this … slowly … and …. loudly) TODAY’S CLIMATE CHANGES ARE NOTHING LIKE ANYTHING THAT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST 740,000 YEARS. *Eight* ice ages ahve come and gone in that time, and CO2 levels have NEVER, EVER been anywhere near what they are now. Go on – show me where *global* CO2 levels – not some pissant local change – have ever been as high as they are now, and have been since industrialisation.

Perhaps the skeptics would care to explain:

Where is all the CO2 coming from? Why did the rise directly coincide with the Industrial Revolution? Why are CO2 rates increasing? Do you claim that industry doesn’t produce massive quantities of CO2? Where does this CO2 go? Why won’t this CO2 directly affect temperature like it has every day for the past 740,000 years? Is it magic CO2?

We’ve got a thoroughly tested scientific theory that explains it all (and which any kid with a Coke-bottle terrarium can verify for themselves), and makes predictions that have come true – what have you got? “The sun is getting hotter”? “Oh noes, teh volcanoes!1”? “I’m sure it feels cooler today”?

There’s nothing so arrogant as wilful and deliberate ignorance.

Thumper, talk to the inuit.

Their problem with climate change is all of their villagers keep falling through the ice and dying. Go tell them your emissions are doing nothing.

P.S. remember to duck, they’re still pretty good with spears.

Alright gentleman – time out.. We’re after factual objective argument so lets put out the fire in the flame war before it erupts and ruins this otherwise fascinating discussion.

So back on track – what are the *factual* pros and cons of doubled Carbon Dioxide levels in the atmosphere – even by historical standards according to ice cores?

Pros for example – increased vegetation growth. Cons – what we’ve already heard.

I’ve heard cows farting are a serious greenhouse problem too.

I just want decent skiing again and the facts seem to support that the snowline IS receding and that treeline or whatever IS changing, is it not?

Another La Nina? I thought last year was pretty bad too, and is it true we are moving in to *another* El Nino? For crying out loud, will this *ever* end?

Climate change ‘skeptics’ are not skeptical, they are ignorant, ignoring the evidence at hand from the best scientific institutions in the world. People will take the advice of their mechanic or their accountant, but not the best peer-reviewed science the world has to offer. Go figure. I challenge any ‘skeptics’ to go and talk to some ANU climatologists about their skepticism. Why don’t you do that Thumper?

If you talk to scientists who have been studying ecosystems in Kosciusko Nat Park they’ll tell you that the treeline and other vegetation zones are progressively moving up the mountain, a sure sign of warming. The same thing has been found all over the world. Mountains are like islands in the sky, and their high altitude ecosystems are progressively disappearing.

As for Canberra, it’s a La Nina year so it was predictably a warm winter last year, and a cool summer. As for this year, let’s see what the ENSO index does. Pray for another La Nina.

I dunno, the last few summers seem to have been cooler (less of the really nice STINKING HOT days which I enjoy), and I’ve certainly not been whinging about the cold like I usually am at the end of May.

Demosthenes: Planting more trees is a great idea, but people living nearby will complain about the loss of view/amenity and the Nitrogen Dioxide emissions.

Trouble is, we’ve been in a “wet period” this past year (La Nina), except it wasn’t wet! Now the signs are that we might be moving back into El Nino, the big drought. But we’ve been in Big Drought for the past few years. It’s just weird.

As for this being “normal”, those people with kids had better hope not. Because right now we’re not sustainable if this climate continues. If our population increases (as it is increasing), we are in trouble.

I find it interesting when some people can accept that humans can affect the local environment through building cities and lakes who then can’t take that small leap to suggest that maybe, just maybe, we are having an impact on climate on a global scale.

And is rainfally permanently down? No one seems to be able to answer this question.

Rainfall since 2000 has been down on long-term averages, but that’s pretty much the definition of a drought. Rainfall patterns this decade look nothing like long-term averages with most months far down on the average with a month here or there far above. These spikes pad out annual totals.

Is this permanent? Who knows? We can only discuss trends. If it’s like this for the next ten years, is that permanent?

Well, I haven’t seen any iceberges floating in LBG for years.

I dunno, I seem to recall that in the 80s summer was a bit more tropical than it is now.

As for warmer, I really couldn’t say. However, all the comments about cities creating their own ecosystem (or whatever) is correct.

maybe as the city has grown the temperatures have risen fractionally.

maybe instead of housing complexes on the open spaces they should be creating mini arboretums? Jon would have his tree museums and we would have better weather.

the lakes stuff up the environment by creating a heat sink. on average, the water temp is higher than the outside temp. they prevent the air around them from cooling down sufficiently. Only where the temp falls significantly will lakes freeze, then all bets are off.

in regards to trees, how about ripping out all the useless gums that fall over, drop branches etc, and replace them with european natives? oak is pretty good, also cedar etc. then we could see the act govt selling to the furniture manufacturers and making an additional income. maybe sandal wood would grow here…..

Well why not?? We pay a million dollars a year for every bludger in ‘correctional facilities’ or on a pension or dole or whatever, surely this would be good for them and everyone else and the environment. Oh but wait, according to Labor the victims are the offenders and the offenders are the victims, so I guess that idea’s out.

And how does the lakes stuff up the environment? Does this mean it is *cooler* in summer thanks to the lakes?

And is rainfally permanently down? No one seems to be able to answer this question. Canberra’s rain seems pretty messed up to me.

And will the trees grow back eventually around Canberra and the hills, to the point that the climate changes again? In our life time?

I don’t know about average temps over the last years..but I do know this.. 10 years ago when I was a teenager my mates and I would go to Sky Fire and we would have to wear ski jackets and beanies and gloves to go there. The last couple of years it has been warm. I dont know if Sky fire dates have changed, but if they havent then thats your proof.

Demosthenes said :

Another thing – why are we paying for hundreds if not thousands of bludgers around Canberra to sit around and do nothing all day when they could be planting trees? We all agree that a tree shortage is *not* a good thing. So why can’t we put them to work? Good for them, good for their self esteem, good for their ‘re-integration in to society’ and VERY good for the environment and Canberra weather.

well, you would have to get trees that don’t have snapping off branches in the wind, so that is probably english varieties, water – wait we have a lake or two don’t we, and some way to ensure that they don’t “lose their tools at the pub” chain gang springs to mind….

You can plot them too .. in theory this is a plot of the mean maximum temperature for 2007 for Canberra overlaid on the mean for that station (1939 to present day):

http://tinyurl.com/43o62h

You can look at climate averages for 30 year intervals from 1941 to 2000 at the BOM’s website. Mean monthly maximums for the 30 years 1971-2000 are between 0.1 and 1.1 oC higher than for the 30 years 1941-1970, with most months 0.4 to 0.7 oC warmer.

Using the current month of May as a data point, the mean max temp has been:

1941 – 1970: 14.8 oC
1971 – 2000: 15.9 oC
May 2007: 18.0 oC
May 2008: 17.2 oC

The same is true for mean monthly minimums, which have increased by between 0.2 and 1.0 oC (except June, which fell 0.1 oC). Most months had minimums that were between 0.6 and 0.9 oC warmer.

Looking at May again:

1941 – 1970: 2.7 oC
1971 – 2000: 3.7 oC
May 2007: 5.9 oC (!)
May 2008: 2.8 oC

Another thing – why are we paying for hundreds if not thousands of bludgers around Canberra to sit around and do nothing all day when they could be planting trees? We all agree that a tree shortage is *not* a good thing. So why can’t we put them to work? Good for them, good for their self esteem, good for their ‘re-integration in to society’ and VERY good for the environment and Canberra weather.

So what you are saying is nothing? I have noticed more ‘climate change sceptics’ coming out of the wood work lately. I’m not convinced, I still believe we are having a huge impact on the planet. When new shipping lanes are being opened in the Arctic, I think that is quite conclusive proof that the climate *is* changing.

So is the future for our ski fields pretty bleak? Is rainfall permanently down?

It’s called the Urban Heat Island Effect and is quite pronounced, even in Canberra. I did a study on it while at Uni. Perhaps all the development in Civic and Braddon over the last few years has significantly added to the thermal mass and made the effect greater?

In the scheme of things, the last 20-30 years is really nothing more than the blink of an eye. Climate cycles occur anyway, so it’s entirely possible that Canberra is getting (on average) warmer (or even colder, for that matter).

Yeah maybe that’s it, and that the poor skiing seasons really are just a victim of drought. So is this drought still going on? All indications are that we are still down to half our normal rainfall?

All the climate change believers are saying this is a permanent state of affairs that we will just need to get used to – i.e. drought, warmer winters, hotter summers, and having to fly to New Zealand for any decent skiing unless rock hopping is your thing.

peterh,

apparently (from a family friend who has PHDs in the matter) the best thing to do to increase rainfall is plant hardwood trees. What does the government seem to insist on doing (and since the fires using them as an excuse) – remove hardwood trees.

Yes, Lakes do warm things up. Same with the snowies, all those lakes have changed the climate up there. You wouldn’t believe the massive seasons they used to have up there, walls of snow.

Cities also generate quite a cap of heat. 1965 my parent dumped me with the grandparents and went out hooning on their skis on Mt Majura all day. Deep snow there for quite some time. I don’t think we’ll ever see that again.

Peter’s comments about trees are also interesting. Maybe it’s the increased water vapour around them?

back in the 1950’s, canberra had snow at acton on a regular basis. Then they put in a lake. The subsequent heat sink stopped the snow at acton.
I remember snow on the mountains in belconnen when I was a kid at primary school, back in the early ’80’s, and a couple of years ago, it snowed in kambah – great video of my daughter seeing snow for the first time.

I think that we will see a particularly cold winter this year, hopefully very wet, but it all depends on the southern oscillation index – if the seas are warm, the temps will be too.

The numbers of lakes that we now have in canberra, and the lack of trees have changed the weather landscape. I always believed that trees helped us receive rain, don’t know how, but it was plausible, seeing that the fires removed most if not all of the trees in the area on hills and mountains.