19 October 2008

Liveblogging the election

| johnboy
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[First filed: October 18, 2008 @ 18:06]

18:03

OK… so here we go…

Sources tonight are:
Elections ACT
Elections ABC
NowUC twitter feed

ABC reportage on the tele starts at 18:30.

And the team is ensconced in All Bar Nun now so feel free to come on down.

18:17

Early days but the Greens look like they’re getting the anticipated votes.

No Liberals looking like getting a quota in Ginninderra either.

18:23

ABC showing 14.5% of the vote counted -11% swing against Labor, Libs -2.1, Greens +6.3, others +6.7

18:31

Val Jeffery on .4 of a quota!

18:41

Motorists Party showing the lack of lead candidates with perfectly robson rotated votes.

18: 54

Labor trail Liberals in Brindabella

18:57

Alistair Coe ahead of Vicki Dunne!

19:08

Andrew Barr ahead of Simon Corbell.

19:10

Stanhope well down in Ginninderra. Still going to get back in but with his cohorts polling very badly under half a quota real trouble out in Belco.

19:16

Matthew Watts (Liberal for Ginninderra) has joined us in the bar.

19:27

How much money could Shane Rattenbury make on Centrebet?

19:44

So on early counting the 2008 libs are underperforming the 2004 campaign, and against a government down ~11%. Brendan must be asking questions of the new team.

20:01

15.8% of votes for “other parties”, most of that will probably come back to the Liberals as the Greens managed to get most of the left wing minors to sit out.

20:09

ABC is predicting 7 Labor, 5 Liberal, 2 Green. The bar room psephologists reckon the ABC is full of it.

20:11

Norvan Vogt has joined the party.

20:15

Joy Burch, Labor for Brindabella, on .5 of a quota, there’s a surprise packet!

20:22

Jacqui Burke on a measly .2 of a quota!

20:27

Val Jeffery and Steve Pratt on the same vote right now.

20:32

Liberal Ginninderra vote is awful. the unknown Alistair Coe ahead of lead candidate Vicki Dunne with all of them relying on party line voting to have a snowball’s hope in hell.

20:40

Doszpot looking strong in Brindabella.

20:42

Biggest losers:

Molonglo: Canberra Party’s Joanne Allen: 42 (Joanne doesn’t like talking to the meeja)
Brindabella: CAP’s James Sizer: 469
Ginninderra: Eddie Sarkis: 48

20:49

The Bar Room agrees we’re seeing a massive vote of no confidence in the circus current assembly.

Val Jeffery is ahead of Steve Pratt 2762 v. 2859

21:01

Labor coming back. Pre-poll voters more against than election day voters.

21:06

Liberals in Molonglo 1.5 quotas to Zed and NOTHING for the others. Preferences will have to hold up to bring it back to the others. So much for the cult of personality.

21:17

Current overall numbers: Labor -9.6%, Liberal -3.2%, Greens +6.1%, Others 6.7%.

ABC predicts: Labor 7, Liberal 5, Green 3.

21:45

Staggering that the best Labor can do in Brindabella is .7 quotas for John Hargreaves.

22:16

Readers note that Gallagher is rising and Stanhope’s star is falling.

Also RiotACT would like to hear of precedent where a Government has lost 10% of the vote and yet the opposition has fallen 3.4%.

22:21

Word from scrutineers says Motorist Party voters failed to distribute preferences. Ignorant idiots.

22:28

Stanhope calling it a significant result for him.

But he feels your message deeply for the next four years.

(I had time to go to the toilet and the bar and he was still talking)

22:41

Zed’s on Tele with his young kids, When is their bedtime Zed?

“Tonight the Liberal Party is back in the ACT” (Despite a 3.4% swing against).

Thinks he’ll get the same number of seats as the Labor Party.

“The community has voted for change”

Happy to work with Greens now.

22:58

ABC calling 7 Liberal 7 Labor 3 Green

23:09

It’s all coming down to second preferences. Anyone telling you otherwise is a fraud. There’s no more than 5 seats confident on primary votes.

The Morning After

Thanks to Jane for sending in a shot of the ABC typo that had us chuckling and reaching unsuccessfully for the camera all night:

And that’s all we’ll know for a while, slideshow of the fun in All Bar Nun below:

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The_Phantom said :

I spent my first time as a booth worker on Saturday at Red Hill. I supported a friend who was a candidate for the Community Alliance Party.

It was a nice experience but I felt most of the pundits had already made up their minds. Well it is a Liberal booth. I was especially surprised by the comradeship between the booth workers.

I did however witness one nasty incident when Liberal candidate Jeremy Hanson abused and intimidated a fellow Liberal booth worker.

The booth worker who was handing out for Gary Kent looked visibly upset after her encounter with Mr. Hanson so I and others comforted her.

She was Gary Kent’s sister and had come up from Melbourne to support her brother. She wasn’t even a Liberal Party Member and had to experience such nastiness from a Liberal candidate.

No wonder people do not want to get involved in political parties.

I trust that Mr. Hanson will not use his stand-over tactics now that it appears he’ll make it to the Assembly.

…It was your first time as a booth worker, and you weren’t helping a Liberal candidate?

Yet you have a history of starting many threads on RiotACT that paint you as a supporter of what once was the Kent faction? Many threads that not only paint you as a supporter of Kent et al, but smear those in the Liberal Party that actively opposed this group?

Jesus Christ, you know who I am and you know I have no animosity to your grouping, however I have to say that you people are ridiculously incompetent at trying to use RiotACT to further your own ends.

It doesn’t even matter if it was true or not. You could have just said I’m a Party member and was volunteering for Kent and this is what I saw. However because you so ridiculously attempted to hide who you were, you’ve just made yourself look like a bloody idiot.

Oh, and one of the things that amuses me no end in this life filled with Manglish (Mangled English) is mixed metaphors and mixed phrases. I invented one on Friday for the people in my green choir (which I’m guessing others have used before) which is a mixture in greeting them, acknowledging that they are green and bits of lefties). So, “Dear Grenades…”

But I heard a beauty on the ABC news this morning while driving in around Lake George and catching up on all the goings on. The newsreader was talking about the Green gains and that came out as ‘grains’.

Superb.

A man who usually has his finger on the pulses.

P.S. Looks like a great night; which I could have cloned myself and been concurrently there and swimming, body-surfing, boogie-boarding and swapping singing tips with my burgeoning muso daughter. Did you know (for blokes) that body-surfing in the cold waters of the Pacific can help a tenor/bass hit the high notes?!

** Damn; forgot to distract the ‘Thou Shalt Not Talk About Thy Children’ by pointing over THERE! It’s Zed sneaking into the bioethical cleaning products store to re-stock the cupboard under his sink with some commodified green credentials!!

Dante said :

Rattenbury for deputy chief minister plz… anything to potentially get katy out of that role.

Ok, only got as far as #60 but that’s worth responding to.

+1. What a great idea. (Though probably Labor would have some issues considering they’ll have another six of their cronies to choose from.)

I was in a mostly mobile, radio and TV-free zone on Saturday night, so it wasn’t until I got Moruya newsagency that I saw the front cover of the Canberra Times and let out an involuntary yelp of delight. Much to newsagent dude’s consternation.

Insert snippy, short [lack of] customer service here. (Does the Sunday edition not have a ‘Relax’ insert anymore? I couldn’t find this out from Mr ‘Service is our middle name which we had removed by deed poll’ Newsagent.

Either way, I was on a renewed high and gave an extra kick along while doing an hour set at Jamberoos with Ecopella(.org)

Great days.

ns – sorry, I misunderstood your ‘two weeks’, I thought you meant it would take two weeks to conduct a countback. It will take two weeks for Elections ACT to enter all the preferences, by the end of the first week though the preference flows should be pretty clear – preferences are entered in pollbooth alphabetical order, so you can (if you’re a real nerd like me) apply the preference ratios to the un-entered booths and come up with pretty good estimate of final results. This method also has the advantage of being able to gauge the ‘last wo/man standing factor’ – which is where the final position is not necessarily decided by filling a quota but by there being no one else left in the count. This is effectively how Seselja got up last time, although he did end up with (just)a quota from Hettinger’s preferences.

sepi – you’re right, the distribution could effect more than one quota which is the main reason that overquotas are redistributed at fractional value – it’s not quite a perfect compensation, Antony Green and a mad psephologist had a big row about it on Pollbludger before agreeing that the fractional return actually decreases the value of your vote, albeit by a tiny margin.

The count on election night is bundles of paper based on first preferences. Then they are entered into the computer by about 20 data entry drones. Everyday the Commissioner publishes an interim distribution of preferences which in the first half of the week will lead to some pretty entertaining notions of who gets elected.

jimbocool said :

ns@125 – almost right on the countback. All preferences are counted during the scrutiny phase and entered into the Elections ACT system. Should Stanhope resign the countback is done quite literally at the touch of a button. You can, however, get a pretty good estimate of where such a countback might lead by looking at how his overquota is distributed.

jimbocool, I did consider that, but I thought Elections ACT need to take the fortnight to enter everything into the system, and that’s why we wouldn’t know final numbers for two weeks? Oh well, I’m a novice at this so I’m probably wrong 🙂

Also, I went and looked at Jon’s overquota and it doesn’t help much at all. Mary Porter gets the lion’s share, and then it is split pretty evenly between the other three ALP candidates. And Mary’s numbers don’t help at all because by the time she is eliminated all the rest of them are already gone.

PS – and do they count them by just entering people’s votes into a computer, or do they actually move big piles of paper around? It must be a shocker to count.

Jimbocool – I’m still working out the preference system – is this right?

Say I vote 1 Val Jeffery, 2 Shane Ratt, 3 MArk Parton

Val doesn’t get a quota – my Whole vote goes to second choice Shane.

Shane gets 1.5 quotas, so 1/3 of my vote goes to Mark Parton.

AND if the next person gets 1.1 of a quota, then a tenth of my third of a vote goes to my fourth choice.

(I am only just getting to grips with the idea that my vote can influence more than 2 candidates quotas.)

ns@125 – almost right on the countback. All preferences are counted during the scrutiny phase and entered into the Elections ACT system. Should Stanhope resign the countback is done quite literally at the touch of a button. You can, however, get a pretty good estimate of where such a countback might lead by looking at how his overquota is distributed.

Oh dear. Stalinism is not socialism. The downfall of the Berlin wall was a step forward for humanity. The overthrow of the butchers of Beijing (or their children) will be a step forward for humanity.

As to the police state, what was it that German pastor (Neimeyer?) wrote?

First they came for the communists, and I did nothing. Then the socialists, and trade unionists etc etc. And I did nothing. Then they came for me.

Look, the stasi sometimes pay attention to left wing groups. Waste of money and energy as far as I can see. But when they are infiltrating such radical groups as the uniting church, you really have to wonder who is safe from them.

For example, is the ACT Light Rail group free of their interference? I doubt it, since the stasi mindset is that all groups pushing for change are a possible threat to the established order. The ACT Greens? The anti-power station in Tuggeranong group? The ALP?

Back to the election. Interesting that it is only after the election that the Canberra Times reports that Joy Burch is a close ally of John Hargreaves. maybe knowing that before the election might have influenced people not to vote for her. Funny, not only did the CT not mention it before the election, neither did Joy herself.

Something about misleading or deceptive conduct comes to mind, but unfortunately the Trade Practices law doesn’t apply to politicians per se, I can only surmise Joy’s silence indicates her shame, and the fact she would have copped a drubbing if ACT voters knew she was a John Hargreaves clone. A disgrace.

As the electorate swings to the left, the ALP swings to the right.

If i were the Greens I’d refuse to entertain the idea of right winger Andrew Barr being CM, and make that clear to the ALP from the start.

I’m confused thetruth – what do you mean? Besides the fact Jon isn’t in a faction, why would the ALP want him to hand Government over to the Libs?

Thats the point – he is not aligned. But would they challenge his leadership if in the event that he then resign from the assembly on countback an independent (or other non labor) canidate got up – its better protection from a challenge than any faction.

Ie “challenge me and kick me out and send yourself to opposition”

Gungahlin Al said :

D’oh. ns I’m totally oblivious to the ALP’s stupid faction nonsense, so totally did not get your comment…All clear now. I was looking at it totally as the JonKat spin backfiring, but your thought adds further weight to it.

I don’t get Andrew being in the right faction either. On environmental issues he is pretty strong.

Haha GA, it probably works in the factions’ favour that everyone else is oblivious to them. Sometimes I think RA tends to focus too much on the trees and can’t see the forest. (Not directed at you – just a general observation 🙂

Andrew being in the (centre)right makes sense if you consider the left in the ALP are smack bang full of crazy loonies, and also that in the ACT the ALP are generally far leftier than the ALP nationally. The right is really only “right” when it comes to economic issues. On most of the other stuff everyone (left/right/unaligned) in the ACT ALP seems pretty left – they’re all socially progressive and fairly ‘green’. The exception to this would be the crazies on the other end of the spectrum in the extreme fundamentalist right (Karin Macdonald/Tracey Mackay/Wayne Sievers).

This is actually what scares me about the Libs in the ACT. They’re all so extremely socially conservative (Zed, Giulia, Coe, Dunne, Smyth).

thetruth said :

Can someone tell me – If Jon Stanhope is challenged and looses the leadership and then resigns from the assembly – would Mark Parton (an independent) be the next cab off the rank?? If so what would the greens do then I wonder??

That’s a bit trickier to answer and right now probably completely unknown. If Jon resigns, it triggers a countback of his primary votes ONLY. So they take all his primary votes and redistribute the preferences and whoever comes out highest from those votes gets elected to fill the vacancy. I think the theory is that this way everyone who wanted Jon get their second preference candidate in instead. e.g. when Ted Quinlan resigned there was a countback of his primary votes which is how Andrew Barr got elected.

I would probably venture a guess that if Jon resigned his primary votes redistributed would probably elect another ALP candidate – either Dave Peebles or Adina Cirson. No one would know at this point, because Elections ACT will need at least another fortnight to record all the preferences.

thetruth said :

Stanhope may have the ultimate factional backing – to retire and hand Government over to the Libs (then if the ALP is to be in power it will HAVE to be in coalition with the Greens).

I’m confused thetruth – what do you mean? Besides the fact Jon isn’t in a faction, why would the ALP want him to hand Government over to the Libs?

Can someone tell me – If Jon Stanhope is challenged and looses the leadership and then resigns from the assembly – would Mark Parton (an independent) be the next cab off the rank?? If so what would the greens do then I wonder??

Stanhope may have the ultimate factional backing – to retire and hand Government over to the Libs (then if the ALP is to be in power it will HAVE to be in coalition with the Greens).

thetruth said :

Circusmind – while your comment is a bit “he haw”. I love that fact that someone from the socialist alternative should ask the labor party (also socialist) to call of the “Stasi” (which of course was the secret police of the communist party in East Germany – NOW THE REDS ARE SCARED OF REDS UNDER THERE BEDS!!!!!!! LMAO!!!!!!

If I was a local commie I’d be flattered by state attention. It must have been a rough 20 years since Marxism became a real laugh of an ideology, I’m surprised the security organisations would even bother these days. I don’t think North Korea and Cuba are going to be bankrolling a glorious global overthrow of capital any time soon.

Circusmind – while your comment is a bit “he haw”. I love that fact that someone from the socialist alternative should ask the labor party (also socialist) to call of the “Stasi” (which of course was the secret police of the communist party in East Germany – NOW THE REDS ARE SCARED OF REDS UNDER THERE BEDS!!!!!!! LMAO!!!!!!

ACT LIGHT RAIL (who?)

from your website:

goal of promoting and achieving the ideal of Light Rail as the primary mode of mass public transit in the Capital Region

ACT Light Rails accept that light rail is an expensive option, but it is essentially a political decision, not a financial decision.

Therefore: “ACTLight Rail comes from an obvious position of bias”. I stand by that fact.

Passy said :

The Age reported the other day that Victorian police had been spying on peace and political groups (including the group I belong to, Socialist Alternative). The Greens would be among those the cops are suspicious about. I assume the same activity is going on in the ACT.

Any deal between the Greens and the ALP should get Stanhope and Rudd to call off their stasi and allow the Greens and other groups like Socialist Alternative to undertake legitimate political activity without interference.

On a more important issue, I think the debate within the Greens is whether to go into a coalition with the ALP or stay outside Government and guarantee only supply to the ALP – ie be able to attack it from the Left.

I suspect Bob brown favours a coalition, and Kerry Tucker at least does not.

You belong to a self-acknowledged revolutionary organisation and then complain when the state monitors your activities? I’m as civil libertarian as they come, but really, if you don’t want to play with the big boys then stay away from fringe politics.

Gungahlin Al11:33 pm 19 Oct 08

“This is exactly what I was alluding to.”

D’oh. ns I’m totally oblivious to the ALP’s stupid faction nonsense, so totally did not get your comment…All clear now. I was looking at it totally as the JonKat spin backfiring, but your thought adds further weight to it.

I don’t get Andrew being in the right faction either. On environmental issues he is pretty strong.

By my horrible estimates – I think the loss of the Stefaniak would account for a fair slice of the swing against the libs – he picked up 17% of the vote in Ginninderra (where there was a 5 ish % swing against the libs) add the 2.6% in Molonglo that Mulcahy “took with him” (where there was a 1.3% swing against the libs). Add it to that that the lib vote in Brindbella in 2004 was historically high – they average about 36 – 37 % whereas they got 40% in 2004. Although it does not make up for all the swing in this election where 34% is the second lowest vote.

In terms of the Green vote – they just took over the Dems vote. In the 4 previous ACT elections that had both the Green and the Dems (so not including this one) the combined vote averaged 14.2% – in this election (without the Dems) the Greens polled 15.8% on their pat malone – in my mind that is pretty much a merger.

ACT Light Rail11:03 pm 19 Oct 08

Jonathon Reynolds is correct. For light rail, the presence of the greens means that proper scrutiny will be applied to the light rail business case. A minority government with a responsible cross bench was the best outcome for ACT light rail.

Pandy – once again you make accusations without evidence to support them. How you can try and link ACT light rail with the adelaide light rail in any way just shows that your already tenuous grasp of reality is fast disappearing. Chucking figures in just makes you look like more of a fool.

Everything we as a PUBLIC TRANSPORT LOBBY GROUP have done has been open and transparent. That is why we asked all people associated with ACT Light Rail to identify themselves, and their interests. Your response to this was to have a hissy fit, and begin a spiteful, childish and venomous campaign to try and blacken the cause of sustainable public transport. You only make yourself look foolish, and ironically justify my decision at the time to insist that people identify themselves.

If anyone reading riot act wants to know what we are doing, you can visit our website or attend a meeting.

Good point thetruth. I thought at the time the offer to the former Liberal leader was driven by politics and the fact that without him the Liberal vote would possibly go down. Maybe that is something the new Assembly (libs plus greens) could look into, assuming the greens don’t enter into government with anyone and while guaranteeing supply to Labor, act independently of them.

There’s no ICAC in the ACT is there? I wonder why.

So the Libs had a swing of 3-ish % – What was the impact of Stanhope offering the former Liberal leader a Government appointment. BTW what is the Moral difference between this event and the Terry Metherell affair which bought down the Greiner Government in NSW? Seriously should the Greens investigate this to assertain whether this action was correct? Should they insist on Stanhope standing down?

Passy said :

I’m beginning to change my mind about Gallagher becoming Chief Minister. She’s from the left, and with the loss of Mick Gentleman, that leaves her and Simon Corbell against five righties or non-aligned.

This is exactly what I was alluding to. Katy’s now left with one supporter, while Andrew has three. She started looking sour the second she realised Burch was doing well at the expense of Gentleman and that Labor wouldn’t be getting more than seven seats. I guess she can do the numbers as well as anyone 🙂

Jonathon Reynolds9:54 pm 19 Oct 08

Passy said :

after Stanhope quits in a year or two (or just possibly, before the vote for CM in a few weeks).

In some circles it has been clearly indicated that Bob McMullan will retire at the up coming election and Stanhope will be put forward for that seat. I can not see Stanhope sticking around in a hostile minority government situation.

I’m beginning to change my mind about Gallagher becoming Chief Minister. She’s from the left, and with the loss of Mick Gentleman, that leaves her and Simon Corbell against five righties or non-aligned. So maybe Barr is the favourite to replace Stanhope before the next election. (And maybe that’s why she mentioned school closures – to remind her colleagues who carried them out.) But in the byzantine world of ALP politics, Barr’s handling of school closures has probably won him brownie points in any leadership contest after Stanhope quits in a year or two (or just possibly, before the vote for CM in a few weeks).

Katy did look very cranky last night. I’m not sure why.

And she said some interesting things about the school closures in particular – that the community wasn’t happy with the suddeness of the decisions, because the govt had been thinking about it for a while, and that the community wasn’t happy with the standard of the consultation. Interesting to get those admissions on election night.

I didn’t think she did herself any favours being narky at Brendan Smyth. Her popularity comes from her girl next door friendly image – I think.

Granny said :

The Panda was awesome. I forget his real name, but he was totally like Ferris Bueller. And he could drink through his eye!

He looks like Shirty the Slightly Aggressive Bear. Or maybe like taht crap version of Humphrey they did on the same show.

Thanks Goanna and Jonathon. Just because I’m paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not after me.

And if 3 stasi turn up that will double the meeting. (Well, not quite, but in that ballpark).

Frankly they’ll be bored out of their minds with discussions about teh capitalist nature of ALP governments, the economic crisis, the ACT elections, why Russia wasn’t socialist.

But if the stasi are also infiltrating the Greens, then something is very rotten with our democracy. But I have taken the discussion off point.

Back on point. Will the Greens join a coalition with the ALP? Any thoughts? Should they?

Jonathon Reynolds8:31 pm 19 Oct 08

Passy said :

The Age reported the other day that Victorian police had been spying on peace and political groups (including the group I belong to, Socialist Alternative).

Watch out Passy… they’re out to get you… and you’ll be next!

Passy, at your next Socialist Alternative meeting look carefully around the room. At least 3 attendees are likely to be stasi sent by stanhope. Check their footwear – they favour boots.

The Age reported the other day that Victorian police had been spying on peace and political groups (including the group I belong to, Socialist Alternative). The Greens would be among those the cops are suspicious about. I assume the same activity is going on in the ACT.

Any deal between the Greens and the ALP should get Stanhope and Rudd to call off their stasi and allow the Greens and other groups like Socialist Alternative to undertake legitimate political activity without interference.

On a more important issue, I think the debate within the Greens is whether to go into a coalition with the ALP or stay outside Government and guarantee only supply to the ALP – ie be able to attack it from the Left. I suspect Bob brown favours a coalition, and Kerry Tucker at least does not.

Also I’d like to ad that I scrutineered in Molonglo, saw over 300 votes for Katy and not one was a ‘1’ only. The columns were full.

JR is talking utter bulshit. The only result his group will support if light rail is supported by the government and stuff what the community says. Case in point Adelaide. A 2km extension of the tram line cost the government $31M. The public hated the idea, the government did not listen, the light rail lobby was over-joyed. ACTLight Rail comes from an obvious position of bias.

I spent my first time as a booth worker on Saturday at Red Hill. I supported a friend who was a candidate for the Community Alliance Party.

It was a nice experience but I felt most of the pundits had already made up their minds. Well it is a Liberal booth. I was especially surprised by the comradeship between the booth workers.

I did however witness one nasty incident when Liberal candidate Jeremy Hanson abused and intimidated a fellow Liberal booth worker.

The booth worker who was handing out for Gary Kent looked visibly upset after her encounter with Mr. Hanson so I and others comforted her.

She was Gary Kent’s sister and had come up from Melbourne to support her brother. She wasn’t even a Liberal Party Member and had to experience such nastiness from a Liberal candidate.

No wonder people do not want to get involved in political parties.

I trust that Mr. Hanson will not use his stand-over tactics now that it appears he’ll make it to the Assembly.

Woody Mann-Caruso7:09 pm 19 Oct 08

He doesn’t get that the majority see him as an arrogant dictator.

Goanna gave a good summary of what the majority thinks. How can you deny the result of the election? Stanhope is back because that’s what the majority wants. You’re in the minority. Enjoy your stay – again.

more primary votes than any other alp candidate in gininderra apart from stanhope
apart from stanhope, the two liberals coe and dunne polled more primary votes than the other alp candidates.

If you’re going to rely on an analysis that’s based on ‘apart from Stanhope’ when the man and his party have already won you’re going to be sorely disappointed. I can’t say I’m surprised though, coming from somebody who argues that apart from the enormous and unwarranted expense, light rail is a great idea. Reality, meet the Light Rail people. Light rail, reality. I’ll leave you two alone for a while to get comfortable.

Jonathon Reynolds6:56 pm 19 Oct 08

Goanna said :

I think someone’s a little disappointed they’re not going to get their $8 million 🙂

Actually for Light Rail its a much brighter position with the Greens controlling the balance of power.
It means that the whatever process is undertaken to progress the issue, it will be under proper scrutiny

i.e. no establishing studies purposely designed to fail, no white-washing of the actual results and more importantly more emphasis than just political lip service.

The viability of Light Rail will be determined through a proper, balanced, impartial feasibility study and proper cost/benefit analysis. The Light Rail group have been advocating this from the start and nothing has changed.

Gungahlin Al said :

ns: I think that’s what I was alluding to above.

GA, I went back and read your comment, but I don’t think we’re alluding to the same reasons re: CM negotiations. I don’t think it’s her HTV or aligning herself with Stanhope that has Katy looking so sour. Look deeper 🙂

ACT Light Rail said :

I also note that apart from stanhope, the two liberals coe and dunne polled more primary votes than the other alp candidates.

Well ofcourse they did. Stefaniak’s conservative votes had to go somewhere and it makes sense that’d they’d be split between a Liberal male and female. I don’t think it has anything to do with more support of the Liberals than over the ALP in Ginninderra.

Also, I think people underestimate the effect of running in the same electorate as the leader of the party. It’s why in both Molonglo (Zed) and Ginninderra (Stanhope), the second and third Liberal and Labor candidates respectively have such low primary numbers. It makes sense for Stanhope and Zed to get the lion’s share of their party supporters. It’s what happened in 2004 with Stanhope and Smyth.

Goanna said :

(Goanna) I think someone’s a little disappointed they’re not going to get their $8 million 🙂

And I think someone’s trying to put a positive spin on a 10% swing against them.

And who predicted a Liberal win? The Libs appear to have done better than many predicted.

It was a great result for the Greens, a bad one for the Libs and a terrible result for Labor.

I think someone’s a little disappointed they’re not going to get their $8 million 🙂

And to answer your first question, yeah i guess he should. I actually don’t remember seeing much of him at all.

ACT Light Rail6:02 pm 19 Oct 08

Interesting comment Goanna, so does that mean that mark parton who polled more primary votes than any other alp candidate in gininderra apart from stanhope, should get more publicity from the media in the next election campaign ?

I also note that apart from stanhope, the two liberals coe and dunne polled more primary votes than the other alp candidates.

Come back to us when youve managed to dictate your formula to the media. i await their response keenly.

regards

damien haas

^ I meant to say ‘Every Labor minister was returned’. poor old Mick…

ACT Light Rail5:58 pm 19 Oct 08

I did witness a labor booth worker at the charnwood booth (100m away) offer a how to vote card to a person who had just come from her job at the charnwood labor club (the uniform gives it away), the young woman waved her away and she said ‘you work at the labor club, you have to vote labor’. I was appalled at that. I told her thats how it works under robert mugabe, but not here in Australia.

regards

damien haas

Thinking about the amount of airtime the greens are now going to get over the next few years sends a shiver down my spine. The Ratt every night while I’m cooking dinner?

I’m happy with the result, but i note with good humour that all the usual Stanhope-haters are here en masse in an effort to salve their egos and find a way to deny the fact that Stanhopeless08 was not the electoral annihilation they wished for or predicted.

I note:

– Every sitting Labor member was returned.

– Labor won all three electorates, including Ginninderra by a whopping 12.9%.

– Labor won the overall vote by 6.5%

– The big swing against Labor came after a previous historic high point.

– The electorate actually has some intelligence, ignoring the shouters and vocal minute minorities and making some wise choices, i.e. Pratt, Burch, Burke, Barr. Let’s not mention Coe.

– Bottom line – Zed failed. An ageing, tired Labor government with a raft of unpopular decisions hanging round it’s neck, plus an unpopular leader and the best the Libs could do was -3.4%? Apparently their internal campaign was a shambles, they failed on the policy front and at the end of the day did not have enough positivity in their campaign.

I say the CT, WIN etc should use the proportion of votes that each party received in this election to guide the amount of coverage they give each party for the 2012 election.

I hope all those negative, opportunistic little single issue parties with their 3 percent results, running around for months like chicken littles, are left severely out of pocket.

Gungahlin Al4:46 pm 19 Oct 08

ns: I think that’s what I was alluding to above.

I see you finally got the picture of the “Hung Parliamant” JB. Would have been even funnier if they’d forgotten the last letter…

Bjelke-Petersen was a patriarchial despot whose leadership enabled endemic corruption to florish across politics and industry. He lavished favours on those that supported him and withheld assistance to those who didn’t. He punished those that opposed him. He survived for 20 years by rigging electoral boundaries called Gerry Mandering. One only has to look at Zimbabwe today to see where he would have headed given half the chance.

smiling politely4:07 pm 19 Oct 08

bigfeet said :

If I had to compare Stanhope to any other politician I would say he is similar to Joh Bjelke Petersen. Not in policies but they both have/had a “Don’t question me…I know best” style.

With respect – and speaking as someone who developed a sense of political awareness under the Bjelke-Petersen regime (to be frank as that’s what it appeared to be) – that’s a terribly questionable comparison. Stanhope has been a bit of a d!ck at times but he’s a better listener than old Joh ever was.

Granny was hot!

Katy as the next CM? Oh please. Barr’s going to be the next Labor CM (whenever that is).

You guys have to look deeper than just surface level. Why else do you think Katy wasn’t looking so happy despite getting back in and topping the Labor vote in Molonglo?

can the text of the post be shortened – a lot – with a ‘continue reading’ bit added at about 7pm? it takes a lot of scrolling to get past it to other, worthy posts below… ; ) pleeese?

So Katy sat on something unpleasant, looks pregnant and has now “I sucked a lemon” look? what was she thinking?

Woody Mann-Caruso said :

A ten percent swing against, and the guy still doesn’t get it.

Get what? A ten percent swing just means he didn’t win by as much. His opposition also experienced a swing against them, so the message isn’t “we want the Libs”.

He doesn’t get that the majority see him as an arrogant dictator.

If I had to compare Stanhope to any other politician I would say he is similar to Joh Bjelke Petersen. Not in policies but they both have/had a “Don’t question me…I know best” style.

The Panda was awesome. I forget his real name, but he was totally like Ferris Bueller. And he could drink through his eye!

The motorists party got sweat F… all. The dragway is dead and they should clear off.

Ahhh – I thought these were actually Rioters; Pandy and Vicepope for starters!

Love the Swedish Chef costume. Mork Mork Mork!

Yes the election party did rather collide with a fancy dress 30th party.

… and have you noticed the Pope in the picture is asking the photographer to kiss his ring!

Don’t you think a bit of context for the pic might aid those who weren’t there, JB? I’d imagine it would be somewhat puzzling for many.

I reckon I must have looked like a disreputable geek … I went outside for a smoke and the bl**dy bouncer wouldn’t let me back in!

Though I suppose it was close to closing up time, however.

Gungahlin Al said :

“Are there, like, eight geeks all sitting aroumd a table, shouting each round via email?”

I don’t think Granny in her little black number would pass as geek in anyone’s assessment…

It wasn’t that little!

Woody Mann-Caruso12:27 pm 19 Oct 08

A ten percent swing against, and the guy still doesn’t get it.

Get what? A ten percent swing just means he didn’t win by as much. His opposition also experienced a swing against them, so the message isn’t “we want the Libs”.

If I were Stanhope I’d look at the 10% swing as 7% Motorist Party nutjobs, 2% as people who still wanted Labor in, but not as a majority and 1% of people who got confused filling out their ballots. Those who said that school closures would break the Stanhope government must be fuming over Barr’s election. To quote the other great Nelson: Ha ha!

sambom said :

I’m not sure if Mr Stanhope has actually looked at the numbers, because he’ll find he’s third in the poll for the whole ACT. He didn’t even top the vote in his own party. Zed is the convincing winner in the personal vote.

But Molonglo is a bigger electorate. Look at the percentages and Stanhope did get a bigger chunk of the electoral love than KG and Z.

(not that that necessarily makes things any better…just sayin’)

And it’s all over for another four years, unless you’re involved in the horse trading that will help the Greens decide who to support.

The lessons. The major parties supposedly behaved pretty well on the day. The minors less so. The uncandidates (the Macarthur power station nimbies) failed to catch on about what the Electoral Act requires. Parties based on individual personalities only work if the personalities are at least as well known as they think they are. Parties running as fronts for something else (Motorists – this means you) get found out and rejected.

As a result of the election, both majors got a scare. Labor lost most, but the Libs failed to pick it up, and lost some of their own as well. Each lost less than first rank candidates, showing that people expect better. And I have found out that there are untapped talents in the hitherto untapped fields of (a) really lame TV ads, (b) massively uninformative roadside signs, (c) hanging around shopping centres and (d)placing glossy but insincere prose in my letterbox. Now to find a use for those skills.

Irrespective of your political views, it’s great to see some of the old dead wood dumped for fresh blood (eg the abysmal Vicki Dunne and Pratt Pratt Pratt).

Although the idea of having so many supposedly god botherers in the Assembly (Guilia with a G, Zed, Coe) is scary.

“I personally topped the poll for my electorate and the whole ACT, it’s a furphy that anyone has a problem with me and my style of government”

I’m not sure if Mr Stanhope has actually looked at the numbers, because he’ll find he’s third in the poll for the whole ACT. He didn’t even top the vote in his own party. Zed is the convincing winner in the personal vote.

Holden Caulfield10:49 am 19 Oct 08

Bungle said :

Whoa, that was almost Chelsea up 6-0.

Poor old Anelka, Chelsea are knocking them in for fun and his goal is called off-side.

You can only vote for things, not against.

If 15% of the population really likes you then you’ll get in despite 85% hating your guts.

Wide Boy Jake10:21 am 19 Oct 08

Surprising to see Andrew Barr reelected, actually elected for the first time. I would have thought the backlash against school closures and the anti-gay vote would have sent him down the tubes.

Just saw Stanhope on Sky News, some noteable quotes:

“We have won the election”

“The community has supported the Labor party and have shown their support of me.”

“I personally topped the poll for my electorate and the whole ACT, it’s a furphy that anyone has a problem with me and my style of government”

A ten percent swing against, and the guy still doesn’t get it.

I hope the green wipe that arrogant sneers off his face. But they won’t.

Gungahlin Al8:51 am 19 Oct 08

The funny thing is Passy, that had the AMP suggested preferencing instead of taking the One Nation approach, Val Jeffrey may have been the major beneficiary of that, and may have got over the line.

It also seems that many people followed Katy’s “Vote 1 for me then no-one else (advice to the contrary in fine print only)” HTV mailout – at the expense of her colleagues – not enough to knock them out, but enough to be noticed during the Chief Minister negotiations I would think.

I wonder if she’s now regretting the degree to which she allowed herself to be branded with Stanhope? But then maybe that was just natural anyway – lately she certainly seems to have been displaying a lot of the same character traits that have gotten Stanhope into trouble.

If nothing else this result really shows the subtleties of the Hare-Clark with Robson rotation. Labour has a +10 swing against them yet probably lose 2 seats, Liberal has a swing against them but will probably have the same or more seats (although the Mulchay factor has them at the same) The Greens look like effectively picking up the vote that the ALP lost with some also going to independents.

Despite the “we don’t need more pollies” view, the fact is that the electorates/number of seats don’t really reflect the voters intent. A 10+% swing loses 2 seats, yet a three % swing against delivers the same number of seats. So the Electoral system we have tends to reward the “major” parties with seats that the voters didn’t really want to give them.

Of course the down side with more seats/electorates is that the really out there independents have a much better chance of turning a primary vote into a seat or two, still a few loonies for us to take the odd pot-shot at from here might be a small price to pay.

Preferences will play a part, but the Motorists Party for example seems to have dealt itself a losing hand with is supporters seemingly exhausitng muc of their vote by only selecting the AMP candidates.

Community Alliance, apart from Val J, doesn’t seem to have done that well. Mark Parton is a very very outside chance. The Libs could (as a remote posibility) end up with six, rahter than seven.

But I think the likely result is 7 ALP, seven Libs and 3 greens.

After listening to the victory speeches, all I can say is “Yah! Everyone’s a winner!”,

Except maybe the Motorists and (ummm) the other party, you know the What-em-call-it-Alliance. Snortled when I read a letter in the CT bemoaning lack of coverage of a certain not so high profile party and the cartoon on the same page also had a similar lack coverage of said party. Next time try post-it notes, that gets people talking.

from today’s crimes, CM says: ““The party that the people of Canberra want to govern this community for the next four years is Labor … we can dwell on the anger against us. We do need to accept that the people of Canberra have sent us a message.

the outrageous arrogance of the man! the liberals look set to be voted in to seven seats, same no. as labor – how exactly does that give an indication that ‘the people of canberra [the ones who voted, foo’] want’ labor?? maybe shane should give him the bird he so thoroughly deserves and give a coalition with zed a go, just to spite him!

and chelsea’s five is still good enough, bungle – but why didn’t cech play? i see palace also had a rousing win.

Cameron said :

Canberra, what have we done?

Voted for the best of the worst.

Adina’s not looking good – actually she is, but her current quota of 0.3 isn’t.

What about Adina Cirson? Our No 1 crumpet!! How did she go?

Whoa, that was almost Chelsea up 6-0.

So we’re looking at a Labor/Green coalition led by Stanhope who thinks he still enjoys the full confidence of the entire electorate.

If the NSW government wasn’t twice the shambles that ours is, I’d seriously consider moving.

Canberra, what have we done?

Rattenbury for deputy chief minister plz… anything to potentially get katy out of that role.

So..is that what we are looking at being the most likely?:

7:7:3?

As an aside – I note that Mr Mulcahy’s webiste has vanished! It’s only a flesh wound, Richard, buck up! Honestly, you really were not up to it were you? Anyways, let’s hope that the poor sods who worked for you (why?) aren’t regretting it for life…

Good to see half the Liberal backbench dis-elected. Pratt, Burk and maybe Dunne. Hard to say Canberra’s voted for a Liberal govenment when they’ve only supported 2 1/2 of the sitting candidates.

You’d be pretty sour if you had to spend the evening with Brendan Smyth too…

I think Katy’s hair looked the best it’s ever been tonight – and those of you that are dilbert fans wil know that promotion based on who has the best hair is the only fair way.

Anyways I think it’s done and dusted in Ginninderra and Molonglo – 2,2,1 and 3,3,1 respectively – Brindabella’s where it’s at.

LG said :

My goodness Katy looked sour tonight

Katy always looks as though she is sitting on something uncomfortable or has just let a fart go and is hoping no ne notices.

DawnDrifter said :

So Should Stanhope say its a fantastic result with a >10% swing against them and that they are probably still going to govern the ACT albeit with a shedload of Green asskissing required

You mean the ALP will be doing a shedload of kissing the Greens arses? Sounds good to me.

Joy Burch in Brindabella is interesting. Comin second to Hargreaves, and ahead of Gentleman. I had hoped Hargreaves would fall, not Mick Gentleman.

But who knows where the preferences of Tracy and wayne (the other ALP candidates in Brindabella) will go? Hargreaves not having a quota, yet, is good. Maybe the flow will be from Tracy and Wayne to Mick and Joy. A pipe dream, I know, but one can hope.

Pregnant women can’t be CM – unless the electorate expects us to go on pseudo-governmental hold for the term of maternity leave duration.

At least that’ll stop them building stupid statues to irrelevant rubbish I suppose.

bd84 said :

MWF said :

I hope Stanhope has finally got the message loud and clear.

Judging by his speech, I doubt it.

Bluff and bluster.
On the inside he is shitting like a big black dog. I hope he feels as insecure and rattled as the people employed by the ACT PS have felt since 2006 when he closed schools and cut budgets – we still have to do the same jobs, but work more hours with fewer resources. The same people who elected him in 2004, and have been screwed over ever since, might have finally been able to “speak”.

I hope we have scared them/him/it.

My goodness Katy looked sour tonight

So

Should Stanhope say its a fantastic result with a >10% swing against them and that they are probably still going to govern the ACT albeit with a shedload of Green asskissing required

Or

Should the Liberals be unhappy that with everything going against labour they still couldnt put the final nail in the coffin?

from listening to the 666 live stream it looks like we still got about a week to go for the dust to settle on this one

MWF said :

I hope Stanhope has finally got the message loud and clear.

Judging by his speech, I doubt it.

Can someone Pleeeese introduce Ms Gallagher to a humorist and a hairdresser.

I hope Stanhope has finally got the message loud and clear.

Vic Bitterman10:46 pm 18 Oct 08

Primal said :

What planet is Jon Stanhope on just at the moment?

Demonstrates beyond doubt that he is a tard without a clue.

And now Zed thinks the Libs are back in the ACT. With a 3.4 per cent primary swing against them!

What are Jon and Zed taking?

“22:21

Word from scrutineers says Motorist Party voters failed to distribute preferences. Ignorant idiots”

Well, yeah! They voted for the Motorists Party. No brain surgeons there.

A more amusing solution: they demand Gallagher as Chief and Rattenbury as Deputy. Then watch Stanhope’s head explode!

I think the Greens should refuse to enter Government, but rather guarantee supply to the ALP and be free to vote against them from the left. Otherwise, if they join the ALP in a coalition government, they run the risk of ending up like Peter Garrett – the host takes over the parasite.

Oh the arrogance already.. assuming he has received the most votes in the ACT when he hasn’t and automatically assuming the Greens will support him without speaking to them.

what have the stupid people done..

What planet is Jon Stanhope on just at the moment?

imhotep

I agree. So Jon Stanhope thinks this is a fantastic result for the ALP? With a 9.5 % swing against them!

Whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad.

Stanhope (on 666 ABC). ‘This is a fantastic result’

What?

.

Sorry Jimbocool (not jumbocool). My typing isn’t that good. No offence meant.

Jumbocool

Oops, that’s 2013. I think she will be CM in this Parliament, not the next one. Renewal etc, to give the ALP some chance of retaining 7 seats, let alone winning a majority.

Jimbocool

I agree that is more likely.

Passy – I think we will see Katy Installed as CM just after Canberra’s centenary. And it will be to the good of Canberra as well

Swing to katy Gallagher more than 4 per cent. Swing against Jon Stanhope more than 14 per cent. If Labor had any brains (and I think Wayne Berry was suggesting this) they’d nominate Katie Gallagher for Chief Minister.

Passy – I’m not scrutineering tonight so I can’t give an informed opinion on prefs. However, given that the AMP vote seems to be, well, just a weeny bit fascist, you’d have to say preferences would go to the libs. THe CAP vote is for cranky Val Jeffrey who’s really a lib so that’s where those prefs go.

Exhausting prefs is important – and I note that unlike the greens AMP ran a full slate, but even at 50% that still counts as .2 of a quota – enough to be last man standing!

0.7 For John Hargreaves seems extremely generous on the part of Brindabella voters, considering the GDE was his fault. Then again, I guess Brindabella voters don’t use the GDE…

Jimbocool

You say: the AMP is pulling 0.4 quotas too which will also trend to the Libs!

The AMP fielded full candidate numbers in each electorate so if, as the ABC says 50% of AMP voters only numbered AMP squares, then that vote (ie half the quota) is exhausted and goes nowhere.

And listening to Gallagher – Please pass the spew bucket!

Gungahlin Al9:55 pm 18 Oct 08

“Are there, like, eight geeks all sitting aroumd a table, shouting each round via email?”

I don’t think Granny in her little black number would pass as geek in anyone’s assessment…

Good to share a couple of drinks with you all folks. Intriguing results coming up it would seem. Some new blood all around.

I want a gold star for predicting the result.
Though the Greens still aren’t assured of the 3 seats, fairly close in some seats. Good to see some likely new faces.

.7 of a quota for Hargreaves.

I’m astounded!

jimbocool said :

bog off, bigfeet – this election is just getting interesting!!!

Oh yes…it should be interesting…like I said, I am an election junkie, I absolutely love elections and the way this is unfolding should have me on the edge of my seat.

But I just…well…you know…um…really…just can not generate any interest in this one. And it’s all to do with the lack of calibre of the candidates.

Honestly…I have tried, really tried to be involved. But the standard is just so poor.

bog off, bigfeet – this election is just getting interesting!!!

Look at Brindabella – Val Jeffery is pulling 0.4 quotas that, by my reckoning will preference the Libs, the AMP is pulling 0.4 quotas too which will also trend to the Libs! To quote Bill Lawry, “it’s all happening in Brindabella!”

And I’ll just nbote that Richard Mulcahy has ticked over into triple figures – the poor sap doesn’t realise that those votes will end up with the Libs-shoring up their third seat. Whatta Loser!

Woody Mann-Caruso9:34 pm 18 Oct 08

Overheard today:

“You have to number them one to five.”
“What, up and down or across?”
“I don’t think it matters – you can go either way.”
“But this column’s only got two down.”
“Go across then, like me.”
“OK.”

Couldn’t get over how many people standing around the sausage stall found it confusing. Some other pearlers:

“How many squares did you fill in?”
“All of them. I only wanted to do six, but once you’ve gone over five you have to do them all.”

“I asked for another ballot because Val Jeffery wasn’t in the right position.”

I am an election junkie and usually sit glued to TV, websites and tally rooms analyzing results.

This election should be a dream for me, close run in some areas, large swings and the definite possibility of a minority government.

But I just can’t get interested, the calibre of the candidates is just so low, and there is nothing in policies to differentiate between any of the three parties that are going to have a show. For the first time ever I voted without any real conviction, or really caring about it.

miz said :

And I note a higher informal vote than last time by the looks. So, about one third of voters are disgruntled . . .

Considering that electronic voting does not allow you to vote informal, and there were large amounts of electronic votes, it really should be lower…Now that says something

I showed more interest in the recent WA and NT elections, and in todays NSW by-elections than in the ACT.

canberra towie9:26 pm 18 Oct 08

is it just me or did katy look a tad pregnant tonight ??

Interesting that smaller parties/independents have polled as high as the green vote. And I note a higher informal vote than last time by the looks. So, about one third of voters are disgruntled . . .

Katy Gallagher as the ALP’s candidate for Chief Minister?

ABC swingometer with 54% of the vote counted:

Labor 37.2 -9.7
Liberal 31.8 -3.0
Greens 15.2 +5.9
Others 15.8 +6.8

Stanhope, Zed & Gallgher have their quota…

oops- time has gotten away – evenin’ all. Good to see that my hat is safe (I offered to eat it on the greens gaining two in Molonglo) – current projection of 7,7,3 is fair but I reckon that Brindanbella will get very interesting in the later counts of the scrutiny. I’d love to come to ABN but am on parenting duty – suffice to say that if indeed my equal 39th preferences, Richard Mulcahy and Gary Kent, fail to get elected then all is right with ACT democracy 🙂

And good to see RA’s favourite whipping boy, Brendan Smyth, well ahead of the pack in Brindabella!

Have a drink for me in poor Pratty’s name (he’s a goner, Doszpot is in)

The swing against the ALP is about 10 per cent, against (yes against) the Libs about 2 per cent, to the greens just under 7 per cent and to others about 6 per cent.

My take on the figures so far is that disaffected ALP voters have gone to the greens (in the main) with a few going to others, and some people not sure about the Libs also going to others. Other include the Australian Motorists Party (what someone on RiotACT described as Hansonism on wheels) the Community alliance party (which looks a bit like some right wing ALPers defecting to the CAP and community figures out of various campaigns coalescing with them), and a strong showing for mark Parton.

Did anyone read The Australian’s three reports or opinion pieces on the ACT election today (Saturday)? Sneering ignorance as far I can see.

grunge_hippy8:55 pm 18 Oct 08

Can anyone explain why Giulia with a G is coming second for the Libs in Molonglo?????

>>> cos she (well her plebs) were handing out many many many balloons at the marketplace today.

people like balloons.

😛

The standard of the Gallagher + Smyth Show on the ABC is starting to descend…

Can anyone explain why Giulia with a G is coming second for the Libs in Molonglo?????

good luck for tonight mssr watts.

Just a little joke btw!

Are there, like, eight geeks all sitting aroumd a table, shouting each round via email?

8 of us here so far.

Opinions abound.

it’d have to take a fundamental change in the assembly for greens policies to get up and going… i’m sure that both labor and the libs would take exceptions to most of them.

i reckon primal’s on the money, it’s always good having some environmentally minded people being able to have some say in the matters that affect us.

Who’s down at All Bar JB? I’m popping down after we have some dinner

rosebud said :

How could anyone vote for any party who can’t cost an election policy?

A lot of people don’t want them to govern, just to be a watchdog. I’m not sure their policies enter into it all that much…

Better than voting for someone who doesn’t even have any policies – z!

Did you see the CT coverage this morning? It showed the Greens as not having costed any of their policies. Is that right? How could anyone vote for any party who can’t cost an election policy? Madness (sheer madness, I say).

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