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A year without road fatalities

By johnboy 29 March 2012 79

Simon Corbell is celebrating a rolling year since Canberra’s last road fatali. Simon credits RAPID for the change, which certainly has the capacity to remove the threat posed by the worst of the worst:

“There are many factors which have contributed towards this result, including, increased driver awareness, advances in technology and increased police patrols targeting traffic offences, I have no doubt that the introduction of RAPID has had an impact.”

The ACT Government funded RAPID (Recognition and Analysis of Plates IDentified) capability was introduced in July 2010 and since then has detected 1015 unlicensed drivers and 4295 unregistered or uninsured vehicles.

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A year without road fatalities
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Solidarity 11:59 am 12 Apr 12

If only the ACT Government sent you out a letter or some sort of reminder telling you to pay your rego…

Oh wait.

Idiots.

rhino 11:47 am 12 Apr 12

HenryBG said :

rhino said :

That’s what I was saying. There is a small overlap, but generally forgetting your rego does not have a causal relationship with having an accident.

Your whole argument seems to rest on the implication that a reasonable proportion of those caught by RAPID were merely forgetful people with rego less than 14 days out of date.

A better process for you to follow would be to examine the facts, then lay them out alongside your analysis of those facts.

What you seem to have done is provided an analysis of your imagination of what the facts could be in some alternate universe.

Wrong.

That is what I am saying the opposite view is doing.
There are no facts that break down and categorise each of those people unfortunately.
But I’m saying that the view has been taken that all of these people who forget their rego must clearly drive at 180kph through school zones mowing down people whilst taking drugs. Obviously if you think about it, that is rather unlikely, as people have demonstrated in this thread examples of normal people who forget their rego. So therefore I analysed the logical causal relationships.

We have since bsaically come to an agreement that there is no causal relationship with forgetting your rego and having an accident, as that was disputed before. Did you disagree with this? Or which aspect did you disagree with?

HenryBG 11:14 am 12 Apr 12

rhino said :

That’s what I was saying. There is a small overlap, but generally forgetting your rego does not have a causal relationship with having an accident.

Your whole argument seems to rest on the implication that a reasonable proportion of those caught by RAPID were merely forgetful people with rego less than 14 days out of date.

A better process for you to follow would be to examine the facts, then lay them out alongside your analysis of those facts.

What you seem to have done is provided an analysis of your imagination of what the facts could be in some alternate universe.

Wrong.

rhino 10:20 am 12 Apr 12

p1 said :

This is exactly like racial profiling. One easily identifiable subset of the community (very easily with modern camera/computer systems) is used as a proxy for a seperate subset of people (those who cause accidents).

The difference of course, is that with racial profiling, wearing a hoodie is not illegal, while driving a unregistered car is. So even if the correlation between the two subsets is a loose one, the people being fined ARE breaking the law….

Isn’t it great that they can solve all our road safety issues with cameras?

That’s what I was saying. There is a small overlap, but generally forgetting your rego does not have a causal relationship with having an accident. One is an organisational skill and another is a physical skill. Like being a good politician doesn’t make you a good basketball player. The group of unlicenced people would have a stronger correlation though, because some of them may have lost their licences for reckless driving or drink driving etc, which do cause accidents. That is why there is a loose correlation, because they grouped all of those people together with them.

    johnboy 10:25 am 12 Apr 12

    No causal link, but a correlation, and one borne out by the success of acting on it.

KeenGolfer 9:45 am 02 Apr 12

Evil_Kitten said :

Thanks liability, I thought the statistics might be along those lines.

liability said :

the greater the fine. Just a thought. This might, only might, bring some equity into the issue so that people who were only a day or two out of date with their rego for whatever [inexcusable] reason, would not receive as big a fine as someone who has been driving around for a year or more in an unregistered vehicle

I actually thought this was already the case, could be totally wrong though! I can’t seem to find any info on it.

The unreg fine is $543 – no matter the length of time it is unreg. If the car is more than 14 days out of reg then it is also uninsured which is an additional fine of $562. All traffic fines are listed on the ACT Legislation website in the road transport (offences) regulation 2005.

HenryBG 6:17 am 02 Apr 12

Deref said :

HenryBG said :

Also they have above-average motivation and ability to shoot burglars.

That goes with their below-average intelligence and social conscience.

Ah – like anti-vaccinating Orana parents, we do have these here.

Evil_Kitten 12:25 am 02 Apr 12

Thanks liability, I thought the statistics might be along those lines.

liability said :

the greater the fine. Just a thought. This might, only might, bring some equity into the issue so that people who were only a day or two out of date with their rego for whatever [inexcusable] reason, would not receive as big a fine as someone who has been driving around for a year or more in an unregistered vehicle

I actually thought this was already the case, could be totally wrong though! I can’t seem to find any info on it.

liability 7:19 pm 01 Apr 12

I have had some work related contact with matters in which the Nominal Defendant has taken court action to recover money from drivers of unregistered vehicles with no CTP insurance that have been involved in collisions that have injured people. As per my previous post, the Nominal Defendant has paid out these claims and is seeking to recover the money that they have paid out to injured persons.

Whilst I can only speak about 10 or so that I have personal knowledge of, it is a pretty wide mix of people, ranging from what some RA posters would refer to as “no hopers” through to “normal” middle class people. If I had to make an educated guess, I would suspect that about half of them didn’t pay their rego because they couldn’t be bothered or couldn’t afford it, and the other half simply forgot to pay it [as I said earlier, I know this is not an excuse].

In relation to the question about how many of the 4,000 caught by RAPID were “no hopers” and how many were “decent people who made an honest mistake”, I would suspect that it probably around 50/50. If you notice the cars that you see parked on the side of the road with no number plates, they ranges from s*** boxes through to cars only a couple of years old. While I don’t want to “profile” people based on the car they drive, I suspect that, generally speaking, the s*** boxes are owned by the “no hopers” and the newer cars are owned by “decent people who made an honest mistake” and forgot to renew their rego.

As a discussion point, perhaps a system like speeding fines could be introduced for unregistered vehicles. The longer your rego is out of date [similar to the higher your speed] the greater the fine. Just a thought. This might, only might, bring some equity into the issue so that people who were only a day or two out of date with their rego for whatever [inexcusable] reason, would not receive as big a fine as someone who has been driving around for a year or more in an unregistered vehicle,

Evil_Kitten said :

Nifty said :

It’s a good thing they were pulled over BEFORE they had an accident. Otherwise they would have lost their house and probably have been bankrupted to pay for the compensation and the lawyers…

Yeah someone already said that, and I responded. Again, irrelevant to my point.

I was merely asking how many of that 4000 were no hopers and how many were decent people who made an honest mistake.

Seems the consensus is they’re all no hopers. Line them up and shoot them all!

KeenGolfer 9:00 am 01 Apr 12

goggles13 said :

what percentage of fatals in the past involved unregistered and unlicensed? until that statistic is provided, the link is cannot be proved.

These stats are regularly talked about and mentioned. Roughly 1/3 of all fatals involve unlicenced/ unreg and 1/3 involve alcohol. This isn’t an ACT thing but the figures are pretty much the same across all jurisdictions and even other countries. Too hard to provide links from the phone but they’re readily available if you look.

Tooks 10:09 am 31 Mar 12

goggles13 said :

its great that the ACT has not had a road fatality for 12 months and that RAPID has detected a large amount of unlicensed drivers and unregistered cars.

however, the proposition that RAPID is directly responsible for the zero road toll is a stretch.

what percentage of fatals in the past involved unregistered and unlicensed? until that statistic is provided, the link is cannot be proved.

I support RAPID, but I think it is about time the govt got serious about road safety and implemented pro-active measures – advanced driver training and a more regular and visible police presence on the road

No one suggested that RAPID is soley responsible for this result. In fact the release above says:

“There are many factors which have contributed towards this result, including, increased driver awareness, advances in technology and increased police patrols targeting traffic offences, I have no doubt that the introduction of RAPID has had an impact.”

I remember when the govt came up with ‘Vision Zero’ (is that what it was called?) and I thought it was a ridiculously unachievable goal. Last 12 months prove it is achievable, although I guess we’ll never know exactly what factors played a part (luck? Rapid? Better cars? More targeted policing?).

Deref 10:01 am 31 Mar 12

HenryBG said :

Also they have above-average motivation and ability to shoot burglars.

That goes with their below-average intelligence and social conscience.

Of course we have libertarians here, too; we just have a different name for them: sociopaths. We also have an expression for their philosophy: “F*** you, Jack, I’m alright.”

Alderney 9:45 am 31 Mar 12

Notwithstanding the position regarding RAPID and the benefits of removing unregistered cars and unlicensed drivers from the road, a position with which I generally agree, if you’ve seen the way some still driving in this town I can’t help but think this result is more good luck than good management.

+1 for more police on the roads to catch the hoons. It’s the next level to reducing accidents and injuries.

goggles13 7:54 am 31 Mar 12

its great that the ACT has not had a road fatality for 12 months and that RAPID has detected a large amount of unlicensed drivers and unregistered cars.

however, the proposition that RAPID is directly responsible for the zero road toll is a stretch.

what percentage of fatals in the past involved unregistered and unlicensed? until that statistic is provided, the link is cannot be proved.

I support RAPID, but I think it is about time the govt got serious about road safety and implemented pro-active measures – advanced driver training and a more regular and visible police presence on the road

Vix 1:28 am 31 Mar 12

Jethro said :

A great result.

Although I wish the fatality figures were accompanied by hospitalisation and permanent injury figures. For every person who dies on the road, there is probably three or four who are maimed for life.

This reminds me of when I first got a (motor)cycle – everyone asked if I was scared of being killed. My reply – no, just of almost but not quite being killed! I suspect many other travelers have a similar viewpoint and agree wholeheartedly that the stats quoted should include the mangled not just the dead.

Holden Caulfield 9:06 pm 30 Mar 12

Dunno what JB will say but not sure having self-confessed scatterbrains on the road is world’s best practice.

Watson 8:37 pm 30 Mar 12

johnboy said :

“Driving” is the culmination of many skills.

But no “good” driver is inattentive, or lacking in situational awareness.

So you must be a bad driver if you have not checked the exact date on your rego sticker (a month has at least 28 days) before you get in the car in the morning? What a load of BS.

Why is it so hard to admit that there are just people who are scatterbrained when it comes to administrative things (I myself have a bill phobia) and those who knowingly drive around unregistered because they think they are a law onto themselves? The first are just as likely to be good or bad drivers as anyone else. The latter are likely to think the can do whatever they damn well like on the road without any regard for anyone else.

Next you’re going to say that if I forget bin day, I am likely to forget to give way at a stop sign too?

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