20 April 2016

ACT elections - Let the games begin

| John Hargreaves
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1024px-Election_signs_near_Wanniassa_Hills_Primary_School_October_2012

With the ACT election just over a year away, jostling for preselections has started, some more publicly than others.

Most non-party aspirants haven’t actually started thinking about it yet. I would expect that to start in about June or July, just after the ACT budget is brought down.

These aspirants are usually single issue people with a grudge of some sort. They’re there to make up the numbers so I won’t waste my time on them.

As always, we will see fringe groups put themselves forward as “parties” but again, they are really just single issue groups with a grumble. There will be a light rail mob, a motorists (or similar) group, and a citizen’s alliance party of some sort. Democracy at work, but there’s a little bit of noise and then a fade to obscurity.

The Sex Party will have a crack. It will interesting to see if they can emulate Fiona Patten in Victoria. She was was elected to the upper house, which is elected on a proportional representational model but I can’t see the Sex Party getting 16.5% of the vote in any of the ACT’s electorates.

What happens to their preferences will be significant though. Steven Bailey is a good choice so expect him to do better than some would think.

The interesting thing to watch will be the fortunes of sitting members and the rise of non-sitting candidates. The Hare-Clark system can be brutal with non-performing MLAs and throw up surprises with the election of previously unknown people.

Check out what happened to Paul Osborne in Brindabella in 2001. Smashed because he neglected his electorate and was rarely engaged in policy debates other than religious right issues like abortion and euthanasia. Being a sporting hero was not enough when the crunch came.

Hare-Clark can also weed out long term people who have not delivered in the eyes of the electorate, regardless of how hard they have worked. The accident-prone MLA also needs to be careful. The trick is to know when to go before the Hare-Clark axe falls. There is nothing dignified about losing an election. Ask Brendan about the 1996 federal election.

The electorate is a changing dynamic, driven in part by generational change. Governments and oppositions need to go with the generational change reflected in the community itself or risk being out of touch.

We have seen a number of Labor folk putting their names in the public arena as possibles for election. I can’t wait to see if the Liberals have the depth that we have seen popping up of late in Labor.

And I predict a Lazarus-like rising from the Greens. Although we haven’t seen any public utterances yet, I would be surprised if Meredith Hunter and Carolyn Le Couteur don’t nominate.

Amanda Bresnan may have another shot but we haven’t heard much in public from her in a while. I do know she is active within her community and it wouldn’t surprise if she gave it a tilt either.

Many in the community out there don’t know of the actual battleground that candidates do battle within. The system is about as good as it can get in terms of opportunities for non-sitting candidates to get elected but there is still barriers to overcome.

Here’s how it works. And it is the same for all parties so let’s not think this is a Labor thing.

There is an A-team, a B-team, a C-team and a D-team. People slot into these teams according to their energy, opportunity, mentorship and just plain luck.

The A-team is made up of ministers and the opposition leader and deputy, with the Greens MLAs (if there are more than one) making the team for their party (basically cos you can get them all in a shoebox).

The B-team are non-ministerial government MLAs and opposition members.

The C-team is made up of serious non-sitting candidates.

The D-team are those candidates who are there just to make up the numbers, to take the donkey vote and keep the votes in the column. They are either candidates in training or drones.

You will see that the A-team is in a privileged position. They set the campaign direction, they get the poll results (and usually keep them to themselves) and they command the media any time they like. They have the high profile that a success in Hare-Clark demands.

The flip side is that if it is perceived that a minister has performed badly, he or she is in trouble. David Lamont lost his seat as a result of that perception.

Other MLAs have the resources of the Legislative Assembly at their disposal. If they have worked hard as community representatives, they will have a decent profile. Mary Porter is the best example of these.

However, MLAs who have not built a following will be vulnerable. In Brindabella, the Liberals’ Andrew Wall and Nicole Lawder will have this problem. Longevity is a double edged sword and sometimes the community will seek change. Look out Brendan.

The C-team is made up of two types of candidates. The first group are people who missed out last time and have some profile and now experience in campaigning. In this group are both candidates who have the goods and might make it, and those who couldn’t win a chook raffle with $50 worth of tickets. Karl Maftoum in Brindabella and Mark Kulasingham in Murrumbidgee fit the former group.

The second group are quality candidates who need to get a profile. They are usually people with good community credentials and political experience, like Kim Fischer in Ginninderra or Deepak Raj Gupta in Yerrabi.

The D-team will emerge as the internal factional fighting of both parties finds expression. I hope that the genuine D-teamers learn from the experience and that the drones get outed.

Can’t wait to see who will challenge the sitting Liberals or whether the Greens will put up a fresh team or a back to the future mob.

Let the games begin!

(Photo: Posters advertising candidates at for the 2012 ACT election. Credit to Nick D, used under Creative Commons licensing.)

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justin heywood said :

Skyring said :

… just as their spring fair was drawing to an end, people getting into their cars and driving away, stalls being dismantled etc.

“Aha,” I murmured to my wife, “A fête accompli.”

Aha. Another conniseur of dad jokes I see. Not bad!

Will be putting that one in the kit bag to be pulled out with a flourish at the appropriate occasion.

wildturkeycanoe6:59 am 09 Nov 15

gazket said :

who cares anymore . The pollies pick whoever they like, not who we like. I’ll be screwing up the paper in their face and shoving in the box.

+1, It won’t matter a bit who we choose.Labor, Liberal and the Greens, the policies they all boast don’t have much difference, just the same political garbage with a little bit different spin. There are no issues that really make anyone stand out and make me want to say “Yes, I’ll pick you because…”. If only somebody had a firm standpoint or promise that they could actually fulfill. In my innocent youth I actually had some motivation to vote, hoping the party I put a “1” next to would come out a winner. Through the years I came to realize that even when my horse did cross the line first, it made no difference because they either didn’t have the numbers to follow through on their promises or back-flipped on them entirely. Disillusionment with government incapable of governing and unable to stick to their own policies has convinced me there will be no way to get what I want as a voter through the electoral process we have in this country. That and the fact the country is also divided almost in half with whom it believes should be running it. Enough with the stone throwing and name calling, how about someone with a fresh attitude to governance and campaigning, some positive spin and new ideas that might actually change my mind about politics.
Why are voters so 50/50 between Labor and Liberals? Are they so alike that people simply can’t decide, giving us the balanced view we have?

rubaiyat said :

Micro-management from the peanut gallery is NOT an improvement.

Rubaiyat : Why are u so competenous and dismissive of anyones views that do not accord with your own.

I for one gloss over your pro tram, car and driver hating “cars are the root of all evil abd the tram will save us all” dribble – its actually causing many people not to post here anymore. While I’m at it, why not try cutting down on the number of posts too.

justin heywood8:57 pm 08 Nov 15

Skyring said :

… just as their spring fair was drawing to an end, people getting into their cars and driving away, stalls being dismantled etc.

“Aha,” I murmured to my wife, “A fête accompli.”

Aha. Another conniseur of dad jokes I see. Not bad!

miz said :

…their perpetual and presumptuous fait d’accompli planning style…

Reminds me of going to the movies in Manuka last night. We drove past the Telopea Park school just as their spring fair was drawing to an end, people getting into their cars and driving away, stalls being dismantled etc.

“Aha,” I murmured to my wife, “A fête accompli.”

And when there is ‘consultation,’ it is simply a box ticking exercise, being carefully crafted to avoid any actual consultation that might change the outcome (given that the decision has already been made).

miz said :

their fait d’accompli planning style

Yes. It is a disgrace. By the way, when is someone going to investigate links between the ACT government and developers?

miz said :

The tram for me represents just another example, albeit a massive one, of their perpetual and presumptuous fait d’accompli planning style which I have personally endured over the last few years…

I think you’ve hit the nerve square on the head there.

Labor makes decisions and then implements them regardless of how the voters – especially those most affected – feel about them. The work of government seems to consist of nutting out schemes to implement whatever cabinet decides regardless of opposition, rather than working out what the people want.

Where is the transparency, the public consultation, the consideration?

Too much happens in secret, and naturally one wonders why. Is it because the people might not like it, and best to do it without cutting them into the loop? Is it because it’s a bad decision and best to try to minimise criticism? Is it because the developer has paid off party and politician? Is it just incompetence?

Yeah, yeah, these things are always notified somewhere. A PDF on a website that is rarely visited. A notice in the classifieds. But there’s too much that the government holds close to its breast until the deed is done.

Nicely summed up, Skyring!
And I think the local Libs will be helped by getting rid of the Abbott Millstone. He was an utter disaster and embarrassment for the Libs and Australia.
I am more ideologically aligned with Labor in a general sense, in that I believe in fairness and people-centred public good in a ‘society,’ as opposed to commodity-centric economics under the guise of ‘freedom (for rich people and big business).’
However, I am personally really, really angry with local Labor about the tram. The tram for me represents just another example, albeit a massive one, of their perpetual and presumptuous fait d’accompli planning style which I have personally endured over the last few years, including attempted school closures based on dodgy statistics, unnecessary car-destroying speed humps I cannot avoid if I wish to drive anywhere at all, the sneaky inappropriate non-consultative placement of a facility in my street using under-the-radar tactics (which has caused no end of ghastly problems), an attempt to flog off a local park to developers, just to name a few.
My vote will definitely be a protest vote.

HiddenDragon6:05 pm 06 Nov 15

Skyring said :

watto23 said :

I’m trying to find the website, but based on the 2012 election results, the government would be 11-12 Labour, 2-3 Greens and 11 liberals.

Labor will likely do worse than last time. Those who really like the tram will vote Green, those who hate it will have to vote Liberal.

And there’s a lot of dislike, especially on the South side of the Mawson-Dickson line.

Added to that is the fix-last-result factor. A close election, the government clings to power, the people make sure the next time around, often because the government, convinced they are bulletproof, shoot themselves in the foot so bad.

Four years of resentment and (so far) three years of inept government.

“Mawson-Dickson” – love it!

watto23 said :

I’m trying to find the website, but based on the 2012 election results, the government would be 11-12 Labour, 2-3 Greens and 11 liberals.

Labor will likely do worse than last time. Those who really like the tram will vote Green, those who hate it will have to vote Liberal.

And there’s a lot of dislike, especially on the South side of the Mawson-Dickson line.

Added to that is the fix-last-result factor. A close election, the government clings to power, the people make sure the next time around, often because the government, convinced they are bulletproof, shoot themselves in the foot so bad.

Four years of resentment and (so far) three years of inept government.

rubaiyat said :

Arthur said :

Well I would vote for Tony Abbott as I think it was unfair how he was stabbed in the back, it would be good to reward him again.

Didn’t he stab us ALL in the back after lying his way into office?

Not shedding a tear, and very happy we are coming out of our two year Dark Age.

Strange how he only stabbed those who didn’t vote for him, isn’t it?

Arthur said :

Well I would vote for Tony Abbott as I think it was unfair how he was stabbed in the back, it would be good to reward him again.

Didn’t he stab us ALL in the back after lying his way into office?

Not shedding a tear, and very happy we are coming out of our two year Dark Age.

who cares anymore . The pollies pick whoever they like, not who we like. I’ll be screwing up the paper in their face and shoving in the box.

Compulsory voting – a democratic oxymoron………………

Steven Bailey said :

John Hargreaves said :

No_Nose said :

John Hargreaves said :

Steven Bailey said :

miz said :

Can RiotACT please rule that commenters declare if they are a member of a political party or involved in some way (eg political adviser, fundraising etc).

I think that would be a good idea.

And…..now for the revelation

Wait..wait…let me guess…

Whilst in the ACT Assembly you were the clandestine leader of the Self Government Party?

You are secretly the Grand and Exalted Robemaster of the Jacqui Lambie Network?

For the last two years you were Tony Abbot’s actual Chief of Staff and Peta was just a patsy?

How did I go, was I close?

Not close. I was tempting Steven Bailey to reveal his affiliation

Hi guys, in the Author Archives of this site my bio clearly states that I am the First Officer and Election Team Leader of The Australian Sex Party – Canberra. I’m the lead candidate and currently the acting secretary of the party in the ACT. I regularly speak for the party in the media, and I love engaging in a public contest of ideas. We will be working very hard to win a number of seats in the territory elections of 2016. I’m happy to answer all reasonable questions put to me, and I’m proud to be a member of such a progressive, kind-hearted, and freethinking political movement.

Where do you stand on developing the cbd? I’m looking for a party that wants to facilitate building density in the cbd and a 5km radius, ignoring nimbys and proponents of the burley griffin plan.

Steven Bailey3:35 pm 27 Sep 15

John Hargreaves said :

No_Nose said :

John Hargreaves said :

Steven Bailey said :

miz said :

Can RiotACT please rule that commenters declare if they are a member of a political party or involved in some way (eg political adviser, fundraising etc).

I think that would be a good idea.

And…..now for the revelation

Wait..wait…let me guess…

Whilst in the ACT Assembly you were the clandestine leader of the Self Government Party?

You are secretly the Grand and Exalted Robemaster of the Jacqui Lambie Network?

For the last two years you were Tony Abbot’s actual Chief of Staff and Peta was just a patsy?

How did I go, was I close?

Not close. I was tempting Steven Bailey to reveal his affiliation

Hi guys, in the Author Archives of this site my bio clearly states that I am the First Officer and Election Team Leader of The Australian Sex Party – Canberra. I’m the lead candidate and currently the acting secretary of the party in the ACT. I regularly speak for the party in the media, and I love engaging in a public contest of ideas. We will be working very hard to win a number of seats in the territory elections of 2016. I’m happy to answer all reasonable questions put to me, and I’m proud to be a member of such a progressive, kind-hearted, and freethinking political movement.

John Hargreaves said :

Not close. I was tempting Steven Bailey to reveal his affiliation

Frankly, anybody with any kind of “affiliation” should be barred from standing for a seat in our local elections.

We need people to run our city, not people who want to hire political staffers, emit ideology, and spend our money on fact-finding trips to the south of France.

John Hargreaves11:32 pm 25 Sep 15

No_Nose said :

John Hargreaves said :

Steven Bailey said :

miz said :

Can RiotACT please rule that commenters declare if they are a member of a political party or involved in some way (eg political adviser, fundraising etc).

I think that would be a good idea.

And…..now for the revelation

Wait..wait…let me guess…

Whilst in the ACT Assembly you were the clandestine leader of the Self Government Party?

You are secretly the Grand and Exalted Robemaster of the Jacqui Lambie Network?

For the last two years you were Tony Abbot’s actual Chief of Staff and Peta was just a patsy?

How did I go, was I close?

Not close. I was tempting Steven Bailey to reveal his affiliation

John Hargreaves said :

Steven Bailey said :

miz said :

Can RiotACT please rule that commenters declare if they are a member of a political party or involved in some way (eg political adviser, fundraising etc).

I think that would be a good idea.

And…..now for the revelation

Wait..wait…let me guess…

Whilst in the ACT Assembly you were the clandestine leader of the Self Government Party?

You are secretly the Grand and Exalted Robemaster of the Jacqui Lambie Network?

For the last two years you were Tony Abbot’s actual Chief of Staff and Peta was just a patsy?

How did I go, was I close?

John Hargreaves5:54 pm 25 Sep 15

Steven Bailey said :

miz said :

Can RiotACT please rule that commenters declare if they are a member of a political party or involved in some way (eg political adviser, fundraising etc).

I think that would be a good idea.

And…..now for the revelation

ricci said :

The ACT would be better served if it was a marginal seat with both major parties having turns at Government over reasonable time frames. However the Greens are an idealistic waste of space and should not be countenanced unless they become more realistic and pragmatic. However ACT electors seem too stupid or lazy to see that we are ignored because we almost always vote in Labor. This is very much due to the funding of Labor by the Labor Club so it can afford to virtually buy the votes of lazy voters.

Partly because the Liberals generally cut more jobs in Canberra (Labor does also but not as much). Also Canberrans are socially progressive, yet the conservatism that has infiltrated the Liberals doesn’t sit well with many, yet many agree in the liberal view of market based economics. I’d vote for a real liberal party without the right wing conservatives in it. I could never vote for a conservative like Zed, one wonders how Cory Bernardi got elected in South Australia also.
If Jeremy Hanson actually takes Turnbulls leads and instead of negativity and 3 word slogans, puts forward alternative policies before the election, with a positive view, then he may do very well. We get that he opposes light rail. I’m not a fan of it, but its also the only policy out there that will help relieve pressure on roads. There is no city in the world Canberras size or bigger that has roads as a sole transport solution and traffic runs smoothly. So while the narrow minded liberal voters in Tuggeranong think light rail to Gungahlin doesn’t benefit them, they actually gain more, by being able to get car parking in the city easier without competing with the light rail users for spots.
Again, I’m hoping for an alternative policy, whether that be Bus Rapid Transit or something else. I suspect it will be something about buying more buses and that won’t really cut it IMO.

rubaiyat said :

With 5 seat electorates the Greens will require 17% after preferences to get their quota.

How do you see that happening unless Labor comes short one quota?

Yes because Labor and Liberal will poll around that 2 quota mark according to 2012 figures Labor would be above 2 quotas in all 5 electorates. Liberals were actually below 2 quotas in 2 electorates and nearly 3 in Brindabella.

Greens typically get 0.5-1 quota in most electorates and with preferences Greens or Labor usually get the quota. Remember across the ACT 10% should be enough to earn the Greens 2-3 seats. If it didn’t result that way the system is failing IMO. It worked well the last election, when the 2 major parties actually were separated by ~41 votes total across the ACT. So they both got 8 seats each and the Greens got the other seat. Despite what some people think (mostly liberal voters), the result reflects quite closely what voters of Canberra wanted.

Arthur said :

Well I would vote for Tony Abbott as I think it was unfair how he was stabbed in the back, it would be good to reward him again.

So you’d reward him for losing the confidence of the Australian people within 8 months of winning office and then failing to regain that confidence over the next 16 months? Even if the policies he was trying to bring in were the best for Australia, he needed to take the public with him and completely failed, turning a good margin over Labor into a significant deficit in a very short period of time.

Arthur said :

Well I would vote for Tony Abbott as I think it was unfair how he was stabbed in the back, it would be good to reward him again.

You mean you expected the Liberal party room to slash their own throats instead, by remaining loyal to a leader that was heading towards electoral destruction?

Arthur said :

Well I would vote for Tony Abbott as I think it was unfair how he was stabbed in the back, it would be good to reward him again.

Better move to Warringah electorate, then.

Hey, speaking of which, where’s Dungers? Hopefully he’s on holidays and not ill or something.

Well I would vote for Tony Abbott as I think it was unfair how he was stabbed in the back, it would be good to reward him again.

HiddenDragon5:50 pm 24 Sep 15

miz said :

Can RiotACT please rule that commenters declare if they are a member of a political party or involved in some way (eg political adviser, fundraising etc).

I understand the sentiment, but if anything, the assumption – at times – that forthright views expressed here can only be explained by blind loyalty, and therefore can be dismissed with a handy political label, or two, is the problem.

Rather than political party membership, I am often intrigued by the numbers of shiftworkers who are selflessly contibuting to this site when they might be doing more pleasant things like sleeping…..

The ACT would be better served if it was a marginal seat with both major parties having turns at Government over reasonable time frames. However the Greens are an idealistic waste of space and should not be countenanced unless they become more realistic and pragmatic. However ACT electors seem too stupid or lazy to see that we are ignored because we almost always vote in Labor. This is very much due to the funding of Labor by the Labor Club so it can afford to virtually buy the votes of lazy voters.

miz said :

Can RiotACT please rule that commenters declare if they are a member of a political party or involved in some way (eg political adviser, fundraising etc).

Firstly-do any of you have families to go to? The amount of words out there amazes me!
2nd-ly-I wish to state I am quite independant! I am neither a member of Labor, Greens or Liberal. When I look at the mess served up re public transport, who would you choose?
27 years of playing politics and 93% still prefer to drive. Does that say something. This is one reason why I decided to start a SECOND FRONT CAMPAIGN against the tram. But it is more than that. We want to work with TAMS and others to achieve reasonable patronage figures ie 40%. There is a BETTER WAY! Those who have been in power, and the pro tram lobby have not yet worked it out.

One final comment on this matter: https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/actlabor/pages/310/attachments/original/1433293463/Light_Rail_Policy_Document.pdf?1433293463,
ACT Labor Party policy 2012. No mention of spending anything other than $30m! Did you get that! No clear cut mention of the likely NETWORK COST! Got it? No suggestion they would enter into contract BEFORE the next Election. Got it? What we have seems to mirror something vaguely FRAUDULENT or at least NOT TELLING THE TRUTH! How me the money folks! Show me in black and white where it says to the Voters in 2012 – oh, and by the way we are going to sign contracts before the next Election. S saying from my long military career-“never go faster than your slowest man”. How many actually understand or care about the finer details? Therefore, why not put it out there that people can read in the space of a short memo? No more tree chopping EIS documents please. Facts only! I get people telling me they are too busy:”may I suggest that the comments are made briefer so that busy people don’t have to scroll through pages of information, perhaps you would consider headlines to project the concerns about this very costly project”. On the botton. My case Rests folks!

Steven Bailey3:16 pm 24 Sep 15

miz said :

Can RiotACT please rule that commenters declare if they are a member of a political party or involved in some way (eg political adviser, fundraising etc).

I think that would be a good idea.

miz said :

Can RiotACT please rule that commenters declare if they are a member of a political party or involved in some way (eg political adviser, fundraising etc).

Isn’t it obvious. You can spot a political hack’s comment a mile away. Unthinking loyalty to the dot points from central command. A major downside of our party system, which reqards blind loyalty and sycophancy, irrespective of the merits of issues.

MERC600 said :

miz said :

Can RiotACT please rule that commenters declare if they are a member of a political party or involved in some way (eg political adviser, fundraising etc).

Unfortunately we are all involved in fundraising by the payment to candidates on their electoral success.

It’s a bit complicated .http://www.aec.gov.au/parties_and_representatives/public_funding/index.htm

It’s a most insidious way of grabbing even more from the poor bloody long suffering tax payer. ( I just got me rate bill )

Unless of course it was going into my pocket, then it’s only true and proper.

Hear, hear! 🙂 (On the last point).

miz thinks they have outed me (wrongly).

Since when have you met a politician or advisor who actually has done their research? 🙂

However there probably are those here who are in some official or backroom capacity. Though how the RIOTACT is supposed to know who they are or how you can seriously expect them to faithfully put their hand up is beyond me. Lets hope they are at least paying some attention and hearing perspectives outside their own brown-nosing circle.

Ghettosmurf871:58 pm 24 Sep 15

MERC600 said :

miz said :

Can RiotACT please rule that commenters declare if they are a member of a political party or involved in some way (eg political adviser, fundraising etc).

Unfortunately we are all involved in fundraising by the payment to candidates on their electoral success.

It’s a bit complicated .http://www.aec.gov.au/parties_and_representatives/public_funding/index.htm

It’s a most insidious way of grabbing even more from the poor bloody long suffering tax payer. ( I just got me rate bill )

Unless of course it was going into my pocket, then it’s only true and proper.

That’s why it is important to realise that public funding is only paid on the basis of first preference votes. Therefore it may be worthwhile putting a complete nuffy candidate who will only get a tiny % of the vote, as your first preference, then your actual first preference 2nd.

The ACT, as at the federal level which you linked to, pays funding only to those candidates who received greater than 4% of the first preference votes.

The ACT elections link is: http://elections.act.gov.au/funding_and_disclosure/election_funding

miz said :

Can RiotACT please rule that commenters declare if they are a member of a political party or involved in some way (eg political adviser, fundraising etc).

Unfortunately we are all involved in fundraising by the payment to candidates on their electoral success.

It’s a bit complicated .http://www.aec.gov.au/parties_and_representatives/public_funding/index.htm

It’s a most insidious way of grabbing even more from the poor bloody long suffering tax payer. ( I just got me rate bill )

Unless of course it was going into my pocket, then it’s only true and proper.

Garfield said :

rubaiyat said :

Garfield said :

watto23 said :

I’m trying to find the website, but based on the 2012 election results, the government would be 11-12 Labour, 2-3 Greens and 11 liberals. Only in the Brindabella electorate is there a chance of 3 liberal members (and last election that was due to Zed who only looks after himself gaining most of the vote). There would need to be a heavy swing to the Liberals and there was one last election. The issue the Liberals have is most of the independents who would support a liberal government are far right and will never gain a seat in the ACT. Chic Henry had a shot, but then he joined the liberals, which was silly, because there was every chance Chic Henry could have won the 5th seat in an electorate with liberals and Labor at 2 each.

I can’t see anything but a Labor-Green government again. If the liberal party ditched the conservatives or at least the far right wing conservative policies, they’d probably do quite well. A lot of people vote Liberal for what they think the Liberal party stands for and many including myself won’t vote for them, while ever their policies are conservative. I’m really hoping Turnbull can turn the Liberals back towards liberalism.

Based on the 2012 election results, with the high Liberal vote in the southern part of the ACT, I think the assembly would be 11-12 Libs, 11 Labor and 2-3 Greens and the Labor-Green coalition government would continue.

When Tony Abbott was PM, I was expecting his lack of popularity to contribute to a lower local Lib vote. If Turnbull can provide clear leadership and fulfil some of the hope invested in him by swinging voters, then he could prove to be a boost for the Liberals locally. However most people voting in the ACT election will vote on ACT issues and so the question becomes, will the ACT Libs take their lead from the majority in the federal party room, or will they stick to Zed Seselja and his right wing conservative values?

With 5 seat electorates the Greens will require 17% after preferences to get their quota.

How do you see that happening unless Labor comes short one quota?

Based on past performance, the only electorate the Greens have a chance of winning an outright quota will be the inner city. As for the others, they are likely to pick up seats the same way they won seats in both Ginninderra and Brindabella in 2008 – through preferences. In 2012 the Greens were not that far behind Labor in Ginninderra or Liberals in Brindabella for the 5th seats. In 2008 they won 15.6% of the vote and ended up with 4 seats while 2012 was 10.7% for 1 seat. The latest polling that I’ve seen was the union polling which had them back at 15%. I personally think that’s a little high, but if it is correct and its equally spread across the ACT next year, they could conceivably win 5 seats with 0.9 first preference quotas in each seat. As for Labor, their vote in 2012 was only 38.9%, being on average 2.33 quotas in 5 seat electorates. The unions polling had them at 37%, which averages at 2.22 quotas. In 2012 the Libs also received 38.9% of the vote, but the union polling had them at 32%, only 1.92 quotas. With Turnbull replacing Abbott and the reported “soft” Labor votes because of light rail, I expect them to do better than that at next years election, but I still think they’ll have difficulty significantly outpolling Labor. The reason I allocated them 11-12 seats was because of their much higher vote in the south in 2012. If that’s repeated they’re a good chance to win a 3rd seat in one of Tuggers or Woden, and maybe both. With the Libs significantly behind Labor in Belco in both 2008 & 2012 I don’t think they have a hope of a 3rd seat there, and with their opposition to light rail, I doubt they’ll get a 3rd in the area that’s going to benefit from it. As it stands now I expect the Libs to win 11 and maybe 12 seats, and the Labor-Green government to continue. I think the only way there will be a change of government next year is if they do better than its looking now and a minor/ind is elected who decides to back them. The last time a minor party candidate was elected was 2001, with a Democrat in Ginninderra. With the Libs well positioned to capture the right wing vote courtesy of Zed and his supporters, any minor/ind is likely to be positioned somewhere between the Libs and Labor, making it a toss up as to who they would decide to support. If the Libs repositioned themselves as centre-right rather than right wing, they could potentially increase their overall vote and open the opportunity for a right wing candidate to take the balance of power and support them into government. With Zed publicly calling on Turnbull to leave under performing conservatives in cabinet, it suggests he has confidence in his support within the ACT Libs. This leads me to believe its unlikely they will make any move towards the centre and will remain in opposition rather than compromise their conservative values.

I do wish voters would look at the real issues and swing a bit more so that the results are not so predictable.

Of course it helps if the candidates give them something to vote for.

I thought we had a superior, better educated, electorate here in the A.C.T. until I observed a Senate candidate, meeting and greeting, have a woman accost her about noisy garbage trucks in her suburb!

But given some of the arguments here parochial pettiness and ignorance is universal.

Can RiotACT please rule that commenters declare if they are a member of a political party or involved in some way (eg political adviser, fundraising etc).

rubaiyat said :

Garfield said :

watto23 said :

I’m trying to find the website, but based on the 2012 election results, the government would be 11-12 Labour, 2-3 Greens and 11 liberals. Only in the Brindabella electorate is there a chance of 3 liberal members (and last election that was due to Zed who only looks after himself gaining most of the vote). There would need to be a heavy swing to the Liberals and there was one last election. The issue the Liberals have is most of the independents who would support a liberal government are far right and will never gain a seat in the ACT. Chic Henry had a shot, but then he joined the liberals, which was silly, because there was every chance Chic Henry could have won the 5th seat in an electorate with liberals and Labor at 2 each.

I can’t see anything but a Labor-Green government again. If the liberal party ditched the conservatives or at least the far right wing conservative policies, they’d probably do quite well. A lot of people vote Liberal for what they think the Liberal party stands for and many including myself won’t vote for them, while ever their policies are conservative. I’m really hoping Turnbull can turn the Liberals back towards liberalism.

Based on the 2012 election results, with the high Liberal vote in the southern part of the ACT, I think the assembly would be 11-12 Libs, 11 Labor and 2-3 Greens and the Labor-Green coalition government would continue.

When Tony Abbott was PM, I was expecting his lack of popularity to contribute to a lower local Lib vote. If Turnbull can provide clear leadership and fulfil some of the hope invested in him by swinging voters, then he could prove to be a boost for the Liberals locally. However most people voting in the ACT election will vote on ACT issues and so the question becomes, will the ACT Libs take their lead from the majority in the federal party room, or will they stick to Zed Seselja and his right wing conservative values?

With 5 seat electorates the Greens will require 17% after preferences to get their quota.

How do you see that happening unless Labor comes short one quota?

Based on past performance, the only electorate the Greens have a chance of winning an outright quota will be the inner city. As for the others, they are likely to pick up seats the same way they won seats in both Ginninderra and Brindabella in 2008 – through preferences. In 2012 the Greens were not that far behind Labor in Ginninderra or Liberals in Brindabella for the 5th seats. In 2008 they won 15.6% of the vote and ended up with 4 seats while 2012 was 10.7% for 1 seat. The latest polling that I’ve seen was the union polling which had them back at 15%. I personally think that’s a little high, but if it is correct and its equally spread across the ACT next year, they could conceivably win 5 seats with 0.9 first preference quotas in each seat. As for Labor, their vote in 2012 was only 38.9%, being on average 2.33 quotas in 5 seat electorates. The unions polling had them at 37%, which averages at 2.22 quotas. In 2012 the Libs also received 38.9% of the vote, but the union polling had them at 32%, only 1.92 quotas. With Turnbull replacing Abbott and the reported “soft” Labor votes because of light rail, I expect them to do better than that at next years election, but I still think they’ll have difficulty significantly outpolling Labor. The reason I allocated them 11-12 seats was because of their much higher vote in the south in 2012. If that’s repeated they’re a good chance to win a 3rd seat in one of Tuggers or Woden, and maybe both. With the Libs significantly behind Labor in Belco in both 2008 & 2012 I don’t think they have a hope of a 3rd seat there, and with their opposition to light rail, I doubt they’ll get a 3rd in the area that’s going to benefit from it. As it stands now I expect the Libs to win 11 and maybe 12 seats, and the Labor-Green government to continue. I think the only way there will be a change of government next year is if they do better than its looking now and a minor/ind is elected who decides to back them. The last time a minor party candidate was elected was 2001, with a Democrat in Ginninderra. With the Libs well positioned to capture the right wing vote courtesy of Zed and his supporters, any minor/ind is likely to be positioned somewhere between the Libs and Labor, making it a toss up as to who they would decide to support. If the Libs repositioned themselves as centre-right rather than right wing, they could potentially increase their overall vote and open the opportunity for a right wing candidate to take the balance of power and support them into government. With Zed publicly calling on Turnbull to leave under performing conservatives in cabinet, it suggests he has confidence in his support within the ACT Libs. This leads me to believe its unlikely they will make any move towards the centre and will remain in opposition rather than compromise their conservative values.

HiddenDragon said :

OK comrades, so what are the far-right, conservative policies currently being advanced by the ACT Liberals – i.e. the ones presently, or likely to be, in the Assembly after the next election (not the ones allegedly lurking in the shadows, and pulling strings while twirling the tips of their panto-villain waxed moustaches).

And if we’re losing sleep over naughtiness behind the scenes, do we have any views at all about the relevance to local politics of anything which has emerged from the Royal Commission into Trade Union Governance…….?

No tram for Gungahlin.

Those damn extreme right conservatives and their racist, bigoted policies

HiddenDragon said :

OK comrades, so what are the far-right, conservative policies currently being advanced by the ACT Liberals – i.e. the ones presently, or likely to be, in the Assembly after the next election (not the ones allegedly lurking in the shadows, and pulling strings while twirling the tips of their panto-villain waxed moustaches).

And if we’re losing sleep over naughtiness behind the scenes, do we have any views at all about the relevance to local politics of anything which has emerged from the Royal Commission into Trade Union Governance…….?

If you set up a Royal Commission into Transgender Bed Wetting, that’s what they’ll find.

The Liberals did not make the mistake this time that they made when they set up the Royal Commission investigating the BLF and instead uncovered massive corruption and rorting of Government contracts by the Building Companies who so generously donate to the Liberals.

This time the Royal Commission got explicit instructions, if its wearing a 3 piece suit and PAYING the bribe, no peeking!

Garfield said :

watto23 said :

I’m trying to find the website, but based on the 2012 election results, the government would be 11-12 Labour, 2-3 Greens and 11 liberals. Only in the Brindabella electorate is there a chance of 3 liberal members (and last election that was due to Zed who only looks after himself gaining most of the vote). There would need to be a heavy swing to the Liberals and there was one last election. The issue the Liberals have is most of the independents who would support a liberal government are far right and will never gain a seat in the ACT. Chic Henry had a shot, but then he joined the liberals, which was silly, because there was every chance Chic Henry could have won the 5th seat in an electorate with liberals and Labor at 2 each.

I can’t see anything but a Labor-Green government again. If the liberal party ditched the conservatives or at least the far right wing conservative policies, they’d probably do quite well. A lot of people vote Liberal for what they think the Liberal party stands for and many including myself won’t vote for them, while ever their policies are conservative. I’m really hoping Turnbull can turn the Liberals back towards liberalism.

Based on the 2012 election results, with the high Liberal vote in the southern part of the ACT, I think the assembly would be 11-12 Libs, 11 Labor and 2-3 Greens and the Labor-Green coalition government would continue.

When Tony Abbott was PM, I was expecting his lack of popularity to contribute to a lower local Lib vote. If Turnbull can provide clear leadership and fulfil some of the hope invested in him by swinging voters, then he could prove to be a boost for the Liberals locally. However most people voting in the ACT election will vote on ACT issues and so the question becomes, will the ACT Libs take their lead from the majority in the federal party room, or will they stick to Zed Seselja and his right wing conservative values?

With 5 seat electorates the Greens will require 17% after preferences to get their quota.

How do you see that happening unless Labor comes short one quota?

HiddenDragon6:21 pm 23 Sep 15

OK comrades, so what are the far-right, conservative policies currently being advanced by the ACT Liberals – i.e. the ones presently, or likely to be, in the Assembly after the next election (not the ones allegedly lurking in the shadows, and pulling strings while twirling the tips of their panto-villain waxed moustaches).

And if we’re losing sleep over naughtiness behind the scenes, do we have any views at all about the relevance to local politics of anything which has emerged from the Royal Commission into Trade Union Governance…….?

watto23 said :

I’m trying to find the website, but based on the 2012 election results, the government would be 11-12 Labour, 2-3 Greens and 11 liberals. Only in the Brindabella electorate is there a chance of 3 liberal members (and last election that was due to Zed who only looks after himself gaining most of the vote). There would need to be a heavy swing to the Liberals and there was one last election. The issue the Liberals have is most of the independents who would support a liberal government are far right and will never gain a seat in the ACT. Chic Henry had a shot, but then he joined the liberals, which was silly, because there was every chance Chic Henry could have won the 5th seat in an electorate with liberals and Labor at 2 each.

I can’t see anything but a Labor-Green government again. If the liberal party ditched the conservatives or at least the far right wing conservative policies, they’d probably do quite well. A lot of people vote Liberal for what they think the Liberal party stands for and many including myself won’t vote for them, while ever their policies are conservative. I’m really hoping Turnbull can turn the Liberals back towards liberalism.

Based on the 2012 election results, with the high Liberal vote in the southern part of the ACT, I think the assembly would be 11-12 Libs, 11 Labor and 2-3 Greens and the Labor-Green coalition government would continue.

When Tony Abbott was PM, I was expecting his lack of popularity to contribute to a lower local Lib vote. If Turnbull can provide clear leadership and fulfil some of the hope invested in him by swinging voters, then he could prove to be a boost for the Liberals locally. However most people voting in the ACT election will vote on ACT issues and so the question becomes, will the ACT Libs take their lead from the majority in the federal party room, or will they stick to Zed Seselja and his right wing conservative values?

rubaiyat said :

watto23 said :

I’m trying to find the website, but based on the 2012 election results, the government would be 11-12 Labour, 2-3 Greens and 11 liberals. Only in the Brindabella electorate is there a chance of 3 liberal members (and last election that was due to Zed who only looks after himself gaining most of the vote). There would need to be a heavy swing to the Liberals and there was one last election. The issue the Liberals have is most of the independents who would support a liberal government are far right and will never gain a seat in the ACT. Chic Henry had a shot, but then he joined the liberals, which was silly, because there was every chance Chic Henry could have won the 5th seat in an electorate with liberals and Labor at 2 each.

I can’t see anything but a Labor-Green government again. If the liberal party ditched the conservatives or at least the far right wing conservative policies, they’d probably do quite well. A lot of people vote Liberal for what they think the Liberal party stands for and many including myself won’t vote for them, while ever their policies are conservative. I’m really hoping Turnbull can turn the Liberals back towards liberalism.

I thought the 5 x 5 electorates will mean the Greens are pretty well locked out.

Interesting that Tuggeranong is such a arch-conservative stronghold.

Is that due to the age of the residents or was there some ultra-conservative department transferred to Canberra at the time it was developed?

Gungahlin also has conservative leanings. I assumed it was the blue-collar conservative vote, so critical in outer Western Sydney.

rubaiyat said :

watto23 said :

I’m trying to find the website, but based on the 2012 election results, the government would be 11-12 Labour, 2-3 Greens and 11 liberals. Only in the Brindabella electorate is there a chance of 3 liberal members (and last election that was due to Zed who only looks after himself gaining most of the vote). There would need to be a heavy swing to the Liberals and there was one last election. The issue the Liberals have is most of the independents who would support a liberal government are far right and will never gain a seat in the ACT. Chic Henry had a shot, but then he joined the liberals, which was silly, because there was every chance Chic Henry could have won the 5th seat in an electorate with liberals and Labor at 2 each.

I can’t see anything but a Labor-Green government again. If the liberal party ditched the conservatives or at least the far right wing conservative policies, they’d probably do quite well. A lot of people vote Liberal for what they think the Liberal party stands for and many including myself won’t vote for them, while ever their policies are conservative. I’m really hoping Turnbull can turn the Liberals back towards liberalism.

I thought the 5 x 5 electorates will mean the Greens are pretty well locked out.

Interesting that Tuggeranong is such a arch-conservative stronghold.

Is that due to the age of the residents or was there some ultra-conservative department transferred to Canberra at the time it was developed?

Found it… http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/04/draft-electoral-boundaries-released-to-the-act-legislative-assembly.html

Basically the Libs would get 11 seats and there is only one seat in any kind of doubt. But it would more likely go to Labor or the Greens. Greens most likely 3 seats and potentially 4 and Labor 10 or 11 (not 11-12 like i said earlier, my maths was off!).

What the new system does is make it harder for minor parties, but if you can pull 10% of the vote that is more than half a quota (16.7%) and most likely enough to win you a seat.

The issue is without Zed the Brindabella vote may decrease. In 2012 Zed polled the most votes, but labour candidates votes were spread more evenly, so its clear he drew a significant amount of votes, plus promised to build a pool. Hopefully he’ll lose his senate seat. Clearly he was only in politics for his own gain. There was a strong anti Labor sentiment last election also. Its really hard to tell if the Liberals can increase their vote in the two seats they are below 2 quotas.

The real issue in this system is winning the 5th seat, the motorists party took votes away from the Libs based on Chic Henry’s strong performance, but now he is a liberal party member, he will probably increase the vote for the liberals, but not enough to gain 3 seats, where as he may have won the 5th seat in an electorate and then sided with the liberals, effectively meaning they won 3 seats, along with Brindabella, that would mean only one other electorate.

However I think the conservative side of the Liberals is what voters have the most issue with, that is why Abbott lost his job. That is why many swing voters find it hard to vote for the liberals and I’m eagerly awaiting some policies from the ACT liberals for the next election, rather than the 3 word slogans.

watto23 said :

I’m trying to find the website, but based on the 2012 election results, the government would be 11-12 Labour, 2-3 Greens and 11 liberals. Only in the Brindabella electorate is there a chance of 3 liberal members (and last election that was due to Zed who only looks after himself gaining most of the vote). There would need to be a heavy swing to the Liberals and there was one last election. The issue the Liberals have is most of the independents who would support a liberal government are far right and will never gain a seat in the ACT. Chic Henry had a shot, but then he joined the liberals, which was silly, because there was every chance Chic Henry could have won the 5th seat in an electorate with liberals and Labor at 2 each.

I can’t see anything but a Labor-Green government again. If the liberal party ditched the conservatives or at least the far right wing conservative policies, they’d probably do quite well. A lot of people vote Liberal for what they think the Liberal party stands for and many including myself won’t vote for them, while ever their policies are conservative. I’m really hoping Turnbull can turn the Liberals back towards liberalism.

I thought the 5 x 5 electorates will mean the Greens are pretty well locked out.

Interesting that Tuggeranong is such a arch-conservative stronghold.

Is that due to the age of the residents or was there some ultra-conservative department transferred to Canberra at the time it was developed?

watto23 said :

I’m trying to find the website, but based on the 2012 election results, the government would be 11-12 Labour, 2-3 Greens and 11 liberals. Only in the Brindabella electorate is there a chance of 3 liberal members (and last election that was due to Zed who only looks after himself gaining most of the vote). There would need to be a heavy swing to the Liberals and there was one last election. The issue the Liberals have is most of the independents who would support a liberal government are far right and will never gain a seat in the ACT. Chic Henry had a shot, but then he joined the liberals, which was silly, because there was every chance Chic Henry could have won the 5th seat in an electorate with liberals and Labor at 2 each.

I can’t see anything but a Labor-Green government again. If the liberal party ditched the conservatives or at least the far right wing conservative policies, they’d probably do quite well. A lot of people vote Liberal for what they think the Liberal party stands for and many including myself won’t vote for them, while ever their policies are conservative. I’m really hoping Turnbull can turn the Liberals back towards liberalism.

+1 for real liberalism. I will not vote for the Liberals while they refuse to denounce bigots and racists, and while their shots are called by big business and mining companies. None of this is liberalism.

I’m trying to find the website, but based on the 2012 election results, the government would be 11-12 Labour, 2-3 Greens and 11 liberals. Only in the Brindabella electorate is there a chance of 3 liberal members (and last election that was due to Zed who only looks after himself gaining most of the vote). There would need to be a heavy swing to the Liberals and there was one last election. The issue the Liberals have is most of the independents who would support a liberal government are far right and will never gain a seat in the ACT. Chic Henry had a shot, but then he joined the liberals, which was silly, because there was every chance Chic Henry could have won the 5th seat in an electorate with liberals and Labor at 2 each.

I can’t see anything but a Labor-Green government again. If the liberal party ditched the conservatives or at least the far right wing conservative policies, they’d probably do quite well. A lot of people vote Liberal for what they think the Liberal party stands for and many including myself won’t vote for them, while ever their policies are conservative. I’m really hoping Turnbull can turn the Liberals back towards liberalism.

John Hargreaves said :

martin75 said :

Hey John, couple of questions…

Where did Simon Corbell fit in your A, B, C & D team theory or was he an E?

You left out any info on how the factions within the Labor party pre selection work, can shed some light on it?

Do you think the stand of candidates has fallen since your day?

Cheers

In answer to all your questions, Simon was always an A-team member.

The factions work in different ways, some more rigid in their process than others. However, the factions of the Right, the Left and the organised Independents all put names forward to the party members who live in a given electorate and those members select the candidates to go forward in the election. Non aligned members can nominate for preselection if they like. It is true though that the more rigid the faction in its processes, the greater the chance of their lead candidate being preselected\ so long as they have sufficient numbers.

Are the candidates lining up at the moment better than those in the past? Different times and in some ways hard to judge. But I can say that this time round, the talent pool has a deep end to it.

The Libs have their similar practices when selecting their candidates. Let’s just say that if Zed doesn’t give the nod, that’s that. Ask Gary Kent about their processes.

Unfortunately, the ALP at its recent ACT conference, piked on the issue of banning the practice of “show and tell” voting, where factional enforcers get to inspect completed ballot papers before they are submitted. How on earth can an anti-democratic practice like this be justified? This, and the ALP’s unhealthy addiction to pokies, are the reasons I will no longer support them.

John Hargreaves11:15 am 22 Sep 15

martin75 said :

Hey John, couple of questions…

Where did Simon Corbell fit in your A, B, C & D team theory or was he an E?

You left out any info on how the factions within the Labor party pre selection work, can shed some light on it?

Do you think the stand of candidates has fallen since your day?

Cheers

In answer to all your questions, Simon was always an A-team member.

The factions work in different ways, some more rigid in their process than others. However, the factions of the Right, the Left and the organised Independents all put names forward to the party members who live in a given electorate and those members select the candidates to go forward in the election. Non aligned members can nominate for preselection if they like. It is true though that the more rigid the faction in its processes, the greater the chance of their lead candidate being preselected\ so long as they have sufficient numbers.

Are the candidates lining up at the moment better than those in the past? Different times and in some ways hard to judge. But I can say that this time round, the talent pool has a deep end to it.

The Libs have their similar practices when selecting their candidates. Let’s just say that if Zed doesn’t give the nod, that’s that. Ask Gary Kent about their processes.

aussie2 said :

REFERENDUMS-I love direct democracy! A question to all our budding pollies out there. The ACT Electoral Commission states on citizens initiated referendums, Citizens can propose a referendum as a form of direct democracy. Legislation for citizens initiative referendums has not been adopted by any Australian government. Our Assembly has asked for a Referendum but been told NO! I ask why not?

Because people are their own worst enemies. They all know what they hate, end of story.

America is the model of how not to do it. In California you have the insanity of the rich burgers of Orange County voting to cut the taxes they hate but NOT the services they insist on. To make up the difference in this obvious lunacy they made hugely risky investments leading to their bankruptcy in 1994.

So you had the spectacle of the loony right going cap in hand, as they always do when they have stuffed big time, to the Federal Government (that they hate) to bail them out of the stupidity they got themselves into.

The usual capitalise your wins and socialise your loses.

People love to hate politicians and blame them for everything that they voted them in for. Micro-management from the peanut gallery is NOT an improvement.

REFERENDUMS-I love direct democracy! A question to all our budding pollies out there. The ACT Electoral Commission states on citizens initiated referendums, Citizens can propose a referendum as a form of direct democracy. Legislation for citizens initiative referendums has not been adopted by any Australian government. Our Assembly has asked for a Referendum but been told NO! I ask why not?

A little off topic,
“There is an A-team, a B-team, a C-team and a D-team. People slot into these teams according to their energy, opportunity, mentorship and just plain luck.”

And hence the argument that we need to pay politicians more to attract better candidates is flawed. The barrier’s to entry are so numerous that in a democracy, the right person for the job, is replaced by career politicians and sycophants.

VYBerlinaV8_is_back7:39 pm 21 Sep 15

“The Sex Party will have a crack.”

Tee hee hee…

Hey John, couple of questions…

Where did Simon Corbell fit in your A, B, C & D team theory or was he an E?

You left out any info on how the factions within the Labor party pre selection work, can shed some light on it?

Do you think the stand of candidates has fallen since your day?

Cheers

John, do you really think there’ll be any change from the status quo. Canberra is a left/centre town and rarely steps outside that pattern. It would be nice to see some real change. As a conservative, I always feel somewhat disenfranchised, but I guess that’s what a democracy is about.

Yes, with so many unknown to factor in, it will be very interesting.

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