22 October 2013

An average summer on the way

| johnboy
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The Bureau of Meteorology is giving notice there aren’t any El Nino shenanigans predicted for the coming summer:

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remained neutral since mid-2012, with all atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO presently within neutral bounds. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the neutral ENSO-pattern will persist through the coming summer.

While ENSO is the dominant natural driver of Australia’s climate, a neutral period does not guarantee a benign climate. A neutral ENSO period indicates that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is not shifting the odds towards either a particularly wet or dry period, and hence other influences may come into play. Weather extremes can and do occur during neutral ENSO phases, though tend to be less widespread.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral, with climate models indicating that it will remain so until the end of the austral spring. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate during the period from December to April.

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Roundhead89 said :

What? A press release from BOM which isn’t blaming climate change for the weather patterns?

They’re learning folks, they’re learning…

For that to be a truthful statement, you would have to demonstrate with examples that the BoM has previously blamed ENSO variations on climate change.

Good luck.

Roundhead89 said :

What? A press release from BOM which isn’t blaming climate change for the weather patterns?

They’re learning folks, they’re learning…

Here are the Bureau’s press releases going back to 1997. Bet you can’t find any that blame a particular weather event on climate change. Even the most obvious candidates don’t get a guernsey.

Roundhead89 said :

What? A press release from BOM which isn’t blaming climate change for the weather patterns?

They’re learning folks, they’re learning…

But apparently you’re not

What? A press release from BOM which isn’t blaming climate change for the weather patterns?

They’re learning folks, they’re learning…

miz said :

2011 was my perfect year! Nature watered everything beautifully and it wasn’t too darn hot.

30 odd people were killed in Grantham in the floods. Brisbane was flooded. Goulburn and Queanbeyan were flooded.

Nope, that January is not one I care to remember.

People are dying tragically every day, think about that.

2011 was my perfect year! Nature watered everything beautifully and it wasn’t too darn hot.

An average summer on the way

Don’t go putting any money on that just yet.

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