11 October 2016

And the ACT election winner is ...

| Greg Cornwell
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Liberals leader Jeremy Hanson (right) with Liberals' campaign director Daniel Clode.

With four days till the Assembly election it is time to declare the result as I see it of what has been a high promising financial campaign by both sides. My political leanings are known so it is no surprise I predict a Liberal win, however the reasons call for justification.

The extent of financial commitments mentioned above are matters of concern. Like most people I have lost track of the total amounts promised by each Party and worry it may not be possible to meet the target in government. However the Liberals’ shopping list appears more directed at basic community needs: health, education, roads for example.

Labor’s two millstones are the tram and rising rates, closely followed by unpopular planning proposals. The Liberals have the edge on the tram and the reasonable fear it will cost us much more money than budgeted in the future. Savings from canning the tram also will fund other initiatives as well as saving money. Curbing rate rises is another matter and there is no proposal for how it will be done.

Planning proposals look set for reconsideration, however the Opposition has not spelled out its policy and, because the issue is not widespread, the voting effect is localised.

Both parties wish to check the financial clout of developers, however neither has committed to curbing their overall influence on Canberra’s development which, under various guises, could be seen as pernicious.

There are many other smaller important issues being addressed however one factor, again about even, is the participants announcing the new policies. These are largely restricted to the leaders and deputies as if nobody else can be relied upon. Perhaps this reflects a clear party choice between an experienced but tired government and an inexperienced but keen opposition. One other unfortunate factor is that Labor does not have a sitting MLA in the seat of Murrumbidgee (Jeremy Hanson’s bailiwick).

No doubt the Greens will retain their core vote but it won’t improve. Their campaign has been lacklustre, policies announced hardly of importance to mainstream voters, the Party is closely identified with the unpopular tram and their sitting MLA has had bad personal publicity.

It is difficult to see other candidates doing more than adding to major parties’ quotas as they are eliminated. Most are single issue – or give that impression – and with the exception of the anti-casino poker machine group Canberra Community Voters with club membership support, struggle to be seen or heard.

Home experience has seen one ALP doorknock and two brochures, two Green, one independent and several Liberal brochures, which even allowing for targeting specific suburbs indicates most independents and smaller groups lack volunteer workers.

Finally there is a mood for change across the territory. The government has been in too long and its projects: the tram, new developments and rates inspire cost concerns. The Liberals are untried and not entirely trusted to look after the average Canberran, however they deserve a go, there isn’t anyone else.

Pictured above are Liberals leader Jeremy Hanson (right) with Liberals’ campaign director Daniel Clode at the party’s campaign launch. Photo: Charlotte Harper

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JC said :

dungfungus said :

gooterz said :

ACT, where you can rig an election by buying our your main opposition and impersonate medicare and still win without consequence.

I wonder how much of the canvasing tactic will influence the quotas. Votes for libs are based on the party vs Labor went door to door. Are these now personal votes that will flow to other parties or party ones?

Very few of all the candidates have received 1 quota.

I am not convinced that the voting system is bullet proof.

For a start, no proof of identity is required so the first person who votes in the name of the elector gets the voting choice of that person, not necessarily the real elector who may try and vote later in the day but will not be able to because as soon as one elector registers further attempts to vote in the name of that elector are blocked, electronically (as is the explanation by the Electoral Commission).

Given that one cannot even get into a club without a membership card or photo-idendity proof, it is contemptuous that the worth of ones’s franchise to to vote is valued less than visiting a club.

Even if a voting fraud is confirmed, the first vote cast will be the one that is counted.

This opens the system to abuse such as voting in the names of recently deceases electors or electors who may be unable to vote or are unwilling to vote.

Additionally, the votes are subject to scanning (not a perfect science) and computer compilation. These functions can be manipulated (who could forget the “doctoring” of ED patient records at TCH?).

And parties can lie with impunity during the campaigning period.

Does anyone else care about it? I guess not.

Just imagine how much vote rigging needs to go on using the method you raised to actually make a difference. Besides do you have any evidence if it ever being an issue anywhere in Australia let alone here. Though do agree with the basic sentiment it is odd one does not have to show ID to vote.

As for lies during campaigns why are you so worried about it now? You have been happy to go along with, and peddle the liebral mantra which contains many lies on here so why the change of heart? Or is it a case you believe the fiberals are as pure as the driven snow and only them dastly union backed laborietes lie?

I don’t have to imagine how much vote rigging is needed to swing an election, it is all explained here http://www.samuelgriffith.org.au/papers/html/volume17/v17chap8.html

In fact, branch stacking is a tried and proven method of vote rigging and we all know which side of politics pioneered that scam.

I am happy that you agree that photographic ID is needed to vote and I believe most Australians want that as well. It appears politicians don’t agree so we should be asking “why?”

If ID was required most of the rorts that are mentioned in the link would all be eliminated.

Regarding your usual, colourful criticism of the Liberals, none of their alleged scare campaigning went near Labor’s tried and proven fraudulent use of the Medicare logo on the facsimile scare card they used.

Had Medicare been a private company with the logo registered as a trade mark, ACT Labor would have ceased to exist by the following day. All their assets would have been seized and their executive arrested.

All these things are tactics in a strategy to win elections by “whatever it takes” (as Richo once said). In isolation, one tactic won’t make a difference but combined they do.

Chris Mordd Richards1:28 am 17 Oct 16

To all who replied saying I was wrong that no matter what Libs would not form Government… I will accept your mea-culpas now, ta.

dungfungus said :

gooterz said :

ACT, where you can rig an election by buying our your main opposition and impersonate medicare and still win without consequence.

I wonder how much of the canvasing tactic will influence the quotas. Votes for libs are based on the party vs Labor went door to door. Are these now personal votes that will flow to other parties or party ones?

Very few of all the candidates have received 1 quota.

I am not convinced that the voting system is bullet proof.

For a start, no proof of identity is required so the first person who votes in the name of the elector gets the voting choice of that person, not necessarily the real elector who may try and vote later in the day but will not be able to because as soon as one elector registers further attempts to vote in the name of that elector are blocked, electronically (as is the explanation by the Electoral Commission).

Given that one cannot even get into a club without a membership card or photo-idendity proof, it is contemptuous that the worth of ones’s franchise to to vote is valued less than visiting a club.

Even if a voting fraud is confirmed, the first vote cast will be the one that is counted.

This opens the system to abuse such as voting in the names of recently deceases electors or electors who may be unable to vote or are unwilling to vote.

Additionally, the votes are subject to scanning (not a perfect science) and computer compilation. These functions can be manipulated (who could forget the “doctoring” of ED patient records at TCH?).

And parties can lie with impunity during the campaigning period.

Does anyone else care about it? I guess not.

Just imagine how much vote rigging needs to go on using the method you raised to actually make a difference. Besides do you have any evidence if it ever being an issue anywhere in Australia let alone here. Though do agree with the basic sentiment it is odd one does not have to show ID to vote.

As for lies during campaigns why are you so worried about it now? You have been happy to go along with, and peddle the liebral mantra which contains many lies on here so why the change of heart? Or is it a case you believe the fiberals are as pure as the driven snow and only them dastly union backed laborietes lie?

gooterz said :

ACT, where you can rig an election by buying our your main opposition and impersonate medicare and still win without consequence.

I wonder how much of the canvasing tactic will influence the quotas. Votes for libs are based on the party vs Labor went door to door. Are these now personal votes that will flow to other parties or party ones?

Very few of all the candidates have received 1 quota.

I am not convinced that the voting system is bullet proof.

For a start, no proof of identity is required so the first person who votes in the name of the elector gets the voting choice of that person, not necessarily the real elector who may try and vote later in the day but will not be able to because as soon as one elector registers further attempts to vote in the name of that elector are blocked, electronically (as is the explanation by the Electoral Commission).

Given that one cannot even get into a club without a membership card or photo-idendity proof, it is contemptuous that the worth of ones’s franchise to to vote is valued less than visiting a club.

Even if a voting fraud is confirmed, the first vote cast will be the one that is counted.

This opens the system to abuse such as voting in the names of recently deceases electors or electors who may be unable to vote or are unwilling to vote.

Additionally, the votes are subject to scanning (not a perfect science) and computer compilation. These functions can be manipulated (who could forget the “doctoring” of ED patient records at TCH?).

And parties can lie with impunity during the campaigning period.

Does anyone else care about it? I guess not.

A Nonny Mouse5:54 pm 16 Oct 16

Well, that worked out well.

ACT, where you can rig an election by buying our your main opposition and impersonate medicare and still win without consequence.

I wonder how much of the canvasing tactic will influence the quotas. Votes for libs are based on the party vs Labor went door to door. Are these now personal votes that will flow to other parties or party ones?

Very few of all the candidates have recieved 1 quota.

pink little birdie said :

Turns out you need actual alternative policies and vision to be elected.

The Canberra sheep would elect a dead cat if it ran on the Labor/Greens ticket. Policies have nothing to do with it.

pink little birdie10:21 pm 15 Oct 16

Mordd / Chris Richards said :

What a load of trollop. Lacking in substance, repeating the same old tired arguments. The only thing I am sure of at this point is not how many seats will go to who, but that no matter what, the Liberals will NOT be forming government, not a hope in hell.

They offer little positive vision for Canberra, a long list of stuff they oppose, and want to waste over $300m by scrapping a construction project already committed to, which will make it a lot more difficult next time they need a private partner for a project of their own as no-one will want to sign with a Government that ripped up a perfectly legal and binding contract when they got into power just because they could.

Maybe if the Liberals ceased the scare campaign of lies, stopped censoring voters discussion online and other candidates messages on the road side and ran a fair campaign of their own the Libs might stand a chance. However that is not the case, and the Libs are going to find themselves in opposition still for many years to come.

Turns out you need actual alternative policies and vision to be elected.

chewy14 said :

So we’ve got a choice between a party that is recklessly wasting taxpayers money on a poorly thought out and ill-timed infrastructure project

vs

A party who is going to stop the best taxation reform enacted in the territory with the 20 year plan to remove stamp duty and replace it with a quasi land tax.

Heads the idiots win and tails the peanuts.

There is a third choice and that is “informal”.

So we’ve got a choice between a party that is recklessly wasting taxpayers money on a poorly thought out and ill-timed infrastructure project

vs

A party who is going to stop the best taxation reform enacted in the territory with the 20 year plan to remove stamp duty and replace it with a quasi land tax.

Heads the idiots win and tails the peanuts.

A Nonny Mouse said :

Even if cost-benefit in money terms were just neutral, so what? I like light rail. What is the return on investment for a park or a playground?

That says it all really………

JC said :

rommeldog56 said :

JC said :

pink little birdie said :

It also doesn’t help that they don’t release their policy costings until a couple of days out from the elections.

Speaking of which have they done that yet?

No. Act Labor has not even released costings of tram stage 2 from Civic to Woden nor have the submitted their m$650+ costing for their policy upgrade Canberra Hospital.

Source : 2CC, late yesterday.

$24,000,000. That is the figure. Bit hard to give a full cost on something, when you haven’t done the basics of planning the route and actually coming up with the cost. That is what the $24m is for, and is what the government have committed to. But yeah you will spin that into some attack too.

Bit hard to come up with the cost of the project but not too hard to commit to signing the contracts to build it in the next term of government.

We’re you actually trying to make the government look worse or was it an accident?

A Nonny Mouse6:45 pm 13 Oct 16

JC said :

Robz said :

Do you see where I’m heading Greg. Light rail is actually costing the ACT very little and in fact when you factor the income received due to the LR development is actually costing us pretty well donut.

In actual fact with a cost benefit of 1:1.05 it is buying us a donut, so not costing in overall terms.

Even if cost-benefit in money terms were just neutral, so what? I like light rail. What is the return on investment for a park or a playground?

I see that ACT Labor have been served with a cease and desist notice over the phony Medicare card they have been distributing.

They have apologised.

I don’t know which is the phoniest, the card or the apology.

They should be prosecuted and the election cancelled.

JC said :

$24,000,000. That is the figure. Bit hard to give a full cost on something, when you haven’t done the basics of planning the route and actually coming up with the cost. That is what the $24m is for, and is what the government have committed to. But yeah you will spin that into some attack too.

Then why are ACT Labor saying that they will sign contract before the 2020 election if they haven’t done “the basics of planning the route”. Its an uncosted and unfunded election promise fro ACT Labor. A blank cheque from ACT Ratepayers if ACT Labor/Greens is re elected. No spin. Just fact.

rommeldog56 said :

JC said :

pink little birdie said :

It also doesn’t help that they don’t release their policy costings until a couple of days out from the elections.

Speaking of which have they done that yet?

No. Act Labor has not even released costings of tram stage 2 from Civic to Woden nor have the submitted their m$650+ costing for their policy upgrade Canberra Hospital.

Source : 2CC, late yesterday.

$24,000,000. That is the figure. Bit hard to give a full cost on something, when you haven’t done the basics of planning the route and actually coming up with the cost. That is what the $24m is for, and is what the government have committed to. But yeah you will spin that into some attack too.

The left-leaning Huffington Post gives it’s assessment of Labor’s chances in the election.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/10/12/the-political-fight-for-australias-cool-little-capital/

A report on the Liberals’ outlook will be published tomorrow.

Robert of Braddon said :

This tired and arrogant government needs to go. This tram will put us in debt for years to come and for what — something that could be accomplished by a dozen buses at a fraction of the cost. It’s the dumbest idea.

I didn’t like Zed but Jeremy Hanson seems sensible, moderate and stable. He’ll have my vote on Saturday.

I’m not against changing the government, I just wish the liberals would actually stop spreading misinformation about things purely to win an election. Chances are they’ll last 4 years and be voted out again as they have no policy that genuinely will improves the lives of Canberrans. Its still a mostly say No to anything Labor does campaign.

Buses will not do what light rail does in terms of developing a medium/high density housing corridor. When I think about it when I travel, I always look for a place to stay near light rail/trams/subway stations, because its just easier to get around using them. People will buy a property and pay more if its a short walk to a rail based transit network. so your opinion of a few dozen buses seems to be based only on purely moving people and not on all the other things that change.

If liberals get in, I hope people don’t complain about the following things:
Car parking in the city
Costs of car parking
Traffic congestion
costs of roads
Costs of housing
medium density residential in the suburbs.

All these things are affected positively and in the liberals eyes are probably glazed over in their own CBA, but looked on favourably by many others in this City.

What is their actual plan for a growing population. Where are they going to live? How are they going to get to work? Would they ever agree to lightrail? I mean Zed wants the Libs to build across the river in tuggeranong ruining the recreational land there that many residents currently enjoy and just put more people further from major commercial centres. By all means I want Tuggeranong and Erindale fixed up, but no one seems focussed on that, all they care about is big things and promises to win the election, rather than focussing on what actually needs to be done and suggesting a viable solution.

I don’t share your view as liberals being the winner at the coming election. Mr Hanson certainly was not the winner of the debate last night. He confirmed his arrogance and rudeness in the way he continually spoke over top of Mr Barr. I met Mr Hanson a few weeks ago at a community event and while he was happy to pose for photos, he showed a lack of interest in the event itself. His staffer didn’t even fein interest.
I am disappointed he would take this approach in the debate. You state that the the liberal government has intention to put money into education. Then why has GONSKI been abandon? I do not understand govenments that seem intent on wasting money by cutting programs that are already underway. Not all programs are going to benefit EVERYONE! I no longer have kids at school….there still needs to be money put into education. I may not use light rail…does mean it would not been good for others…not everyone uses the buses or cycle paths…should we stop those too?

pink little birdie9:54 am 13 Oct 16

rommeldog56 said :

JC said :

pink little birdie said :

It also doesn’t help that they don’t release their policy costings until a couple of days out from the elections.

Speaking of which have they done that yet?

No. Act Labor has not even released costings of tram stage 2 from Civic to Woden nor have the submitted their m$650+ costing for their policy upgrade Canberra Hospital.

Source : 2CC, late yesterday.

They submitted a plan to get the costings for the tram to Woden… $25 million for a scoping study.

According to the Canberra times both have submitted costings now

JC said :

John Moulis said :

JC said :

Mordd / Chris Richards said :

They offer little positive vision for Canberra, a long list of stuff they oppose,

Indeed. One could be mistaken for thinking Dr No (Abbott) himself was driving the campaign and their direction. And lost a lot more respect for Hanson today when I found out in the Canberra times local politics quiz that he has a picture of Maggie Thatcher on his wall. That and over blowing his military career Kind of says it all really…

You’re not going to vote for someone because they have a pic of Maggie Thatcher on the wall? I was thinking of running and I have a picture of Kali Muscle on my wall. Would you have voted for me? 😉

That is not what I said. But for the record having a picture of the hard right iron women on your wall, kind of tells me a lot about who a person really is and what they beleive in, and it ain’t the centre right (almost left) image that is being portrayed. Would expect that of Zed rather than Hansen.

As for you, had to google who Kali Muscle is, and looking at your profile picture tells me a bit about you. That and based on what you write here reckon you would be much more down to earth and have more common sense than most of the pollies, including Labor ones. So wouldn’t hold that against you and would vote for you if you were running. Next time maybe?

I was considering running for the election as the Bodybuilders and Physical Fitness Party, the ACT’s version of the Shooters and Fishers Party in NSW. NSW has a party which represents the major form of recreation in that state so I thought the ACT should have a party which represents the main form of leisure in this state. I figured that the man in the street doesn’t care about things like debt and deficit as long as they have a job, a roof over their head and their possessions, and that the thing which really matters is keeping healthy and looking good. That’s the way we roll. In the end I decided not to as I have a bit of baggage including porn videos on the Net and posts criticising climate change and renewable energy which the ABC and Canberra Times would jump up and down about. I might run at the next election but by that time I’ll be over 60 and I think I would have left my run too late.

bringontheevidence said :

The independents might mix things up a bit, but I honestly think there are simply too many of them so the disillusioned vote will be divided.

Yep – the pure number of independents will severely water down the disillusioned vote. Voting for independents, if they dont get a quota, is essentially a vote to retain ACT Labor in Government.

What we need is a change of Government, even if it is for only 4 years.

Unless that happens, 15 years hard Labor will become 30 years hard Labor. I can not see that ever changing. So, all ACT Ratepayers had better hang onto their wallets……..

JC said :

pink little birdie said :

It also doesn’t help that they don’t release their policy costings until a couple of days out from the elections.

Speaking of which have they done that yet?

No. Act Labor has not even released costings of tram stage 2 from Civic to Woden nor have the submitted their m$650+ costing for their policy upgrade Canberra Hospital. Source : 2CC, late yesterday.

If the Greens hang on to their core vote like you say, then Rattenbury will get reelected and Caroline Le Couteur is very likely to get over the line in Murrumbidgee. This means the Liberals can’t win; I think they’ll be able to get 3 in Brindabella and maybe Yerrabi but Ginninderra seems way too strong for Labor.

bringontheevidence7:10 pm 12 Oct 16

I find it difficult to believe the Liberals will be able to get across the line. Even if they pick up 3-2 in Brindabella and Murrumbidgee, they’re unlikely to get Kurrajong, which will almost certainly be 2-1-2 with a Green, or Yerrabi, which will not vote against the tram.

That really just leaves Ginninderra, which has always been solidly Labor and very unlikely to swing far enough to deliver a third conservative seat.

The independents might mix things up a bit, but I honestly think there are simply too many of them so the disillusioned vote will be divided.

pink little birdie said :

It also doesn’t help that they don’t release their policy costings until a couple of days out from the elections.

Speaking of which have they done that yet?

We have a wide choice of candidates, even within the parties. Compare the candidates on http://www.canberra-alliance.org.au (the website of the Canberra Alliance for Participatory Democracy) – based on their own words about why they are standing and the qualities they bring. The answers to “how I plan to represent my constituents” are especially illuminating.

HiddenDragon5:18 pm 12 Oct 16

If ever there was a time for a change of government in the ACT, this is it, and it will happen if middle Canberra thinks about what truly matters in their day to day lives, and ignores the desperate, exaggerated rhetoric of identity politics and “vision” (hallucinations, to be frank) which seems, now, to be the last refuge of a very arrogant and out of touch government.

For the first time in my life (71 years) I have no idea who to vote for. It won’t be Liberal though. Barr needs to go for his under handness in his deals with big business and developers. Greens need to go for taking Canberra away from the motorists and turning a two lane major road into one lane and the rest for the .001% bicycle riders to use. Giving Mt Stromlo to rabid riders and the degradation they have caused. It used to be well used by many horse riders, walkers, dogs and casual bike riders. So it will not be Labor or Green either as I used to vote.

Acton said :

Most people in Canberra vote Labor or Greens, federally and locally. What would it take to change their vote away from Labor/Greens to Liberal?

A core voter block always votes for the same party, roughly 35% Labor, 35% Liberal. So an election is decided on how the remaining 30% votes.

How the 30% vote depends on what is important to them and whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied. Is there sufficient community dissatisfaction to predict a change of government?

The biggest single cause of community dissatisfaction is the percentage and dollar increases in residential rates since 2011-12, weakening the financial security of wage, pension and superannuation recipients and reducing the ongoing affordability of housing. The ACT Labor Government has become closely aligned with tram and property business interests, implementing rates policies and land decisions benefiting big business, to the detriment of ordinary voters and rate-payers. The cruel irony is that despite record low interest rates, housing for young people in the ACT has never been so unaffordable.

If those 30% feel sufficiently dissatisfied and financially disadvantaged, they will change their vote. Their choice is change vs more of the same. Do they want more of the same increases in rates? Hitting the hip-pocket nerve will cause a reflex action in the polling booth.

There deserves to be a change in Government. I think there will be a change of Government.

Last election the first preferences were split between the Libs with 39% and Labor/Greens 50%, leaving 11% with other candidates of which the Motorists and Lib Dems with 4% & 1% would have preferred a Liberal government. Bullet Train also had 4% but those votes could have gone anywhere. The remaining 2% were ungrouped. If we allow for some votes to exhaust we can probably not worry about the Bullet Train and ungrouped, leaving the vote broadly speaking at 44% Lib vs 50% ALP. With the Liberals having put together a much better campaign than last time and targeting Labor’s traditional strong areas of health & education, the main point of difference this time is light rail. Is it enough to get 3+% of voters to switch their preference from a Labor to a Liberal government and will the votes and preference flows be in the right areas to change government? Even if the Libs did as well as say 60% of first preferences in Tuggeranong, it would still be very hard to prevent a 3-2 split with Labor, meaning that where swings occur will be important. The sheer number of minors & independents running could also mean a large increase in the number of votes that exhaust before reaching a major party candidate. I think in a discussion here earlier in the year I suggested the most likely result for the Libs was 11 seats. They’ve done better than I expected since then, but I still think they’ll fall 1 short of the 13 needed for majority government. I think that Labor is on the nose and will pick up only the major party baseline of 2 seats per electorate, leaving them with 10. That means the result will be dependent on who gets the other 3. If an anti light-rail/anti Labor/pro Liberal gets 1 of them, then government changes. If however the Greens pick up 3, and while I’m not expecting their vote to increase they will most likely attract the biggest non-major party vote in each electorate and thus be well placed for the deciding seats, then the current government continues for another 4 years. I just hope that Canberra Community Voters didn’t leave their run too late, because I see them in Ginninderra as the best chance to provide the 13th seat needed for a change of government.

Acton said :

Most people in Canberra vote Labor or Greens, federally and locally. What would it take to change their vote away from Labor/Greens to Liberal?

A core voter block always votes for the same party, roughly 35% Labor, 35% Liberal. So an election is decided on how the remaining 30% votes.

How the 30% vote depends on what is important to them and whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied. Is there sufficient community dissatisfaction to predict a change of government?

The biggest single cause of community dissatisfaction is the percentage and dollar increases in residential rates since 2011-12, weakening the financial security of wage, pension and superannuation recipients and reducing the ongoing affordability of housing. The ACT Labor Government has become closely aligned with tram and property business interests, implementing rates policies and land decisions benefiting big business, to the detriment of ordinary voters and rate-payers. The cruel irony is that despite record low interest rates, housing for young people in the ACT has never been so unaffordable.

If those 30% feel sufficiently dissatisfied and financially disadvantaged, they will change their vote. Their choice is change vs more of the same. Do they want more of the same increases in rates? Hitting the hip-pocket nerve will cause a reflex action in the polling booth.

There deserves to be a change in Government. I think there will be a change of Government.

So what are the policies the Libs are putting forward in relation to housing affordability? How are they going to lower the cost of buying a house? The only policy seems to be anti the Labor rates/stamp duty policy. Which if anything actually adds to the cost of buying a house. Labors plan is to lower and eventually abolish stamp duty, which is a significant cost of buying ANY home. The Libs policy is to freeze that and not increase rates except by WPI, which does nothing for buyers, but ‘helps’ those who already have a place. Unless I am missing something…

Additionally housing affordability is actually a national problem, it is in the new papers and news on a weekly basis and was an issue at the federal election. So trying to claim it as being a local issue due to the current government. Hmm. Might play some part but mostly it is national economic policy that has driven prices north, all starting in the early 2000’s. (my old place tripped in price in the space of 15 years) and doubled in the space of 8.

But again what exactly is the Libs housing affordability policy. Status quo is what I see which = no real policy or solution.

Maybe the core issue in Canberra is many people in the middle (clearly I am not one) can actually think for themselves and and analyse policy. That is what makes me a bit annoyed about the comment above about people in the ACT being stupid, yada yada yada voting in Labor term after term. Maybe the people have made that choice rationally and for reason.

JC said :

Robz said :

Do you see where I’m heading Greg. Light rail is actually costing the ACT very little and in fact when you factor the income received due to the LR development is actually costing us pretty well donut.

In actual fact with a cost benefit of 1:1.05 it is buying us a donut, so not costing in overall terms.

It’s still a cost to the ACT government as its mostly certain residents and property owners who will receive the benefits. If for example the government had opted for BRT they could have provided substantially the same benefits to those same people, but at half the cost to the budget, or in other words those residents who won’t personally benefit from LR.

pink little birdie1:46 pm 12 Oct 16

Acton said :

Most people in Canberra vote Labor or Greens, federally and locally. What would it take to change their vote away from Labor/Greens to Liberal?

A core voter block always votes for the same party, roughly 35% Labor, 35% Liberal. So an election is decided on how the remaining 30% votes.

How the 30% vote depends on what is important to them and whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied. Is there sufficient community dissatisfaction to predict a change of government?

The biggest single cause of community dissatisfaction is the percentage and dollar increases in residential rates since 2011-12, weakening the financial security of wage, pension and superannuation recipients and reducing the ongoing affordability of housing. The ACT Labor Government has become closely aligned with tram and property business interests, implementing rates policies and land decisions benefiting big business, to the detriment of ordinary voters and rate-payers. The cruel irony is that despite record low interest rates, housing for young people in the ACT has never been so unaffordable.

If those 30% feel sufficiently dissatisfied and financially disadvantaged, they will change their vote. Their choice is change vs more of the same. Do they want more of the same increases in rates? Hitting the hip-pocket nerve will cause a reflex action in the polling booth.

There deserves to be a change in Government. I think there will be a change of Government.

Canberra people are usually better looking at the actual policies and are better at distinguishing between Federal and Local government policies. They are better at looking at the long term policies and are usually the ones to implement then at the federal level.
Liberal’s tend to look at the short term effects of a policy and not the longer term. If you look at the federal campaigns it really didn’t take that long for the Australian media to prove that their policies both wouldn’t achieve the stated goal and was more expensive from other countries that had tried the policies.
Look at the NBN for instance both parties agreed that the last mile copper needs replacing and FttP is the end goal. Labor was like ok we will do it methodical whole system replacement and Liberals have just put an expensive additional step in.
Canberra in in parti
If the Liberal’s want to be elected in Canberra at state and Federal level they need actual policies that will achieve the stated goals. They also need to accept good, researched policy and be willing to negotiate with others. Purely negative campaigns don’t work in Canberra at either level.
It also doesn’t help that they don’t release their policy costings until a couple of days out from the elections.

Most people in Canberra vote Labor or Greens, federally and locally. What would it take to change their vote away from Labor/Greens to Liberal?

A core voter block always votes for the same party, roughly 35% Labor, 35% Liberal. So an election is decided on how the remaining 30% votes.

How the 30% vote depends on what is important to them and whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied. Is there sufficient community dissatisfaction to predict a change of government?

The biggest single cause of community dissatisfaction is the percentage and dollar increases in residential rates since 2011-12, weakening the financial security of wage, pension and superannuation recipients and reducing the ongoing affordability of housing. The ACT Labor Government has become closely aligned with tram and property business interests, implementing rates policies and land decisions benefiting big business, to the detriment of ordinary voters and rate-payers. The cruel irony is that despite record low interest rates, housing for young people in the ACT has never been so unaffordable.

If those 30% feel sufficiently dissatisfied and financially disadvantaged, they will change their vote. Their choice is change vs more of the same. Do they want more of the same increases in rates? Hitting the hip-pocket nerve will cause a reflex action in the polling booth.

There deserves to be a change in Government. I think there will be a change of Government.

pink little birdie12:17 pm 12 Oct 16

rommeldog56 said :

JC said :

I may well be one of those rusted on, but for a few reasons. Firstly I don’t see the Liberals as being any different, and secondly based on overall party direction and beliefs I believe that Labor better represents my views.

And I take offence at being blamed for what you call 15 years of hard Labor as if I have made a mistake. Everyone is entitled to their view, I might call into question that view, but I don’t attack people for having that view.

It actually is the rusted on Labor/Greens voters in this place that are part of the problem. No. They ARE the problem.

I wish RiotAct had a blocking function (like Facebook) so readers had the option not to see pro Labor/Greens comments from their rusted on apologists who have clearly lost all objectivity.

To be honest most people I talk to (a lot of pre takeover riotact members) find this a fairly strong Liberal echo chamber now.
I think most of the progressive people have given up on here already.
Also you don’t actually want to debate issues or hear arguments, other points of view. I hear a lot of the Liberal Facebook pages delete and block people with views that don’t align with their views. Prehaps there is a better place for you

John Moulis said :

JC said :

Mordd / Chris Richards said :

They offer little positive vision for Canberra, a long list of stuff they oppose,

Indeed. One could be mistaken for thinking Dr No (Abbott) himself was driving the campaign and their direction. And lost a lot more respect for Hanson today when I found out in the Canberra times local politics quiz that he has a picture of Maggie Thatcher on his wall. That and over blowing his military career Kind of says it all really…

You’re not going to vote for someone because they have a pic of Maggie Thatcher on the wall? I was thinking of running and I have a picture of Kali Muscle on my wall. Would you have voted for me? 😉

That is not what I said. But for the record having a picture of the hard right iron women on your wall, kind of tells me a lot about who a person really is and what they beleive in, and it ain’t the centre right (almost left) image that is being portrayed. Would expect that of Zed rather than Hansen.

As for you, had to google who Kali Muscle is, and looking at your profile picture tells me a bit about you. That and based on what you write here reckon you would be much more down to earth and have more common sense than most of the pollies, including Labor ones. So wouldn’t hold that against you and would vote for you if you were running. Next time maybe?

Robz said :

Do you see where I’m heading Greg. Light rail is actually costing the ACT very little and in fact when you factor the income received due to the LR development is actually costing us pretty well donut.

In actual fact with a cost benefit of 1:1.05 it is buying us a donut, so not costing in overall terms.

Richard Farmer9:17 am 12 Oct 16

There’s one thing that would be hard to deny – Messrs Hanson and Clode have run an error free and effective campaign. They have made a nonsense of those claims that local Liberals are a pack of right wing neanderthals.

JC said :

dungfungus said :

Labor have just launched “Mediscare 2.0” with replicas of Medicare cards being dropped in mailboxes.
The card has the medicare logo with “To access local health services under ACT Labor, you need this”.

On the reverse side it has a generic CREDIT CARD” with “To access local health services under The Canberra Liberals you’ll need this”….. and more nonsense about Liberals building privately run emergemcey departments (that is a huge lie)….etc. etc.

Apparently, the Election Commission says if the small print says “Authorised by Mathew Byrne for ACT Labor” anything is permissible.

Looks like Labor have won the election and no one can lay a finger on them.

And that is different to the Liberal Tram or Hospital scare, when the ‘hospitals’ they are ‘building’ are not hospitals, nor emergency departments but glorified walk in centres. Or that the light rail is unaffordable but are spending money on cancelling contracts then the same if not more on other things.

Or how about your rates will tripple. Not a lie of course, but the context it was used it made it seem like over the next term of government.

Shall I go on?

Though will admit, don’t support the campaign you have raised above as it is dishonest.

Well, as it turns out, the Libs have not complained about it so I guess they deserve to lose the election.

Let’s face it, whoever wins a seat is an election winner. They have their job, status etc. and absolutely no accountability.
Politics is a publicly-funded industry.

JC said :

Mordd / Chris Richards said :

They offer little positive vision for Canberra, a long list of stuff they oppose,

Indeed. One could be mistaken for thinking Dr No (Abbott) himself was driving the campaign and their direction. And lost a lot more respect for Hanson today when I found out in the Canberra times local politics quiz that he has a picture of Maggie Thatcher on his wall. That and over blowing his military career Kind of says it all really…

You’re not going to vote for someone because they have a pic of Maggie Thatcher on the wall? I was thinking of running and I have a picture of Kali Muscle on my wall. Would you have voted for me? 😉

Mordd / Chris Richards said :

The only thing I am sure of at this point is not how many seats will go to who, but that no matter what, the Liberals will NOT be forming government, not a hope in hell.

They offer little positive vision for Canberra, a long list of stuff they oppose, and want to waste over $300m by scrapping a construction project already committed to, which will make it a lot more difficult next time they need a private partner for a project of their own as no-one will want to sign with a Government that ripped up a perfectly legal and binding contract when they got into power just because they could.

Only a rusted on Green would say that the ACT Libs dont have a hope in hell of taking Government. It will be close. Very close.

So, Barr said that if the tram contract is cancelled, it will cost m$200. No evidence to support that. Sounds like a gross over estimate to me.

Then Fitzharris said that it will be m$250

Barr said on the radio the other day that it will cost m$300.

Now you say that it will be m$300+.

Must be election induced inflation – or most likely wild, hysterical exaggerations !!

Greg,

The lack of authenticity in your article is not becoming of an individual who once held the position of Speaker in the Assembly.

The repeated references to ‘tram’ instead of the correct terminology ‘Light Rail’ indicate that this article is nothing more than an attempt to promulgate the Liberal agenda. There is no depth in your article, no attempt to predict the outcome of the election electorate by electorate, seat by seat – instead you simply provide pro-liberal platitudes.

I am normally what one could call a ‘rusted on’ Liberal voter and for the most part Labor and Green policies do not even remotely resonate with me. However the obvious lack of talent in the current Liberal team, lack of detail in their policies and the scare tactics of the Liberal campaign have put me far offside. Furthermore on reflection, for the last 15 years the Labor government hasn’t done a bad job (though I would not rate it stunning either), they perform the task of managing the basics: Rates, Rubbish and Roads of a city/state reasonably well and there has been no significant scandals of note (At least one of their Chief Ministers didn’t blow up a hospital, through Stanhope did fiddle over dinner whilst Canberra burned). Perhaps you ought to factor in that I am one of those ‘1 in 5’ Liberal voters who will be preferencing Labor and Greens ahead of Liberal and I can assure you that I will be ensuring that no Liberal candidate gets a preference from me at this election.

On Saturday night I’m sure you will be sitting eagerly by your ‘crystal set’ waiting for the news to break on who has won government for the next four years. I do not think the outcome will be as clear cut as you attempt to lead us to believe.

JC said :

I may well be one of those rusted on, but for a few reasons. Firstly I don’t see the Liberals as being any different, and secondly based on overall party direction and beliefs I believe that Labor better represents my views.

And I take offence at being blamed for what you call 15 years of hard Labor as if I have made a mistake. Everyone is entitled to their view, I might call into question that view, but I don’t attack people for having that view.

It actually is the rusted on Labor/Greens voters in this place that are part of the problem. No. They ARE the problem.

I wish RiotAct had a blocking function (like Facebook) so readers had the option not to see pro Labor/Greens comments from their rusted on apologists who have clearly lost all objectivity.

Robert of Braddon10:58 pm 11 Oct 16

This tired and arrogant government needs to go. This tram will put us in debt for years to come and for what — something that could be accomplished by a dozen buses at a fraction of the cost. It’s the dumbest idea.

I didn’t like Zed but Jeremy Hanson seems sensible, moderate and stable. He’ll have my vote on Saturday.

Mordd / Chris Richards said :

They offer little positive vision for Canberra, a long list of stuff they oppose,

Indeed. One could be mistaken for thinking Dr No (Abbott) himself was driving the campaign and their direction. And lost a lot more respect for Hanson today when I found out in the Canberra times local politics quiz that he has a picture of Maggie Thatcher on his wall. That and over blowing his military career Kind of says it all really…

dungfungus said :

Labor have just launched “Mediscare 2.0” with replicas of Medicare cards being dropped in mailboxes.
The card has the medicare logo with “To access local health services under ACT Labor, you need this”.

On the reverse side it has a generic CREDIT CARD” with “To access local health services under The Canberra Liberals you’ll need this”….. and more nonsense about Liberals building privately run emergemcey departments (that is a huge lie)….etc. etc.

Apparently, the Election Commission says if the small print says “Authorised by Mathew Byrne for ACT Labor” anything is permissible.

Looks like Labor have won the election and no one can lay a finger on them.

And that is different to the Liberal Tram or Hospital scare, when the ‘hospitals’ they are ‘building’ are not hospitals, nor emergency departments but glorified walk in centres. Or that the light rail is unaffordable but are spending money on cancelling contracts then the same if not more on other things.

Or how about your rates will tripple. Not a lie of course, but the context it was used it made it seem like over the next term of government.

Shall I go on?

Though will admit, don’t support the campaign you have raised above as it is dishonest.

Mordd / Chris Richards said :

What a load of trollop. Lacking in substance, repeating the same old tired arguments. The only thing I am sure of at this point is not how many seats will go to who, but that no matter what, the Liberals will NOT be forming government, not a hope in hell.

They offer little positive vision for Canberra, a long list of stuff they oppose, and want to waste over $300m by scrapping a construction project already committed to, which will make it a lot more difficult next time they need a private partner for a project of their own as no-one will want to sign with a Government that ripped up a perfectly legal and binding contract when they got into power just because they could.

Maybe if the Liberals ceased the scare campaign of lies, stopped censoring voters discussion online and other candidates messages on the road side and ran a fair campaign of their own the Libs might stand a chance. However that is not the case, and the Libs are going to find themselves in opposition still for many years to come.

The Libs are experts in staying in opposition. I think they would be happy to stay that way for another term to see Labor implode.

So Greg I gather your understanding is that the reason rates are rising is due to ‘the trams’ aka significant investment in the future of Csnberra’s mass public transport needs.
If my assumption is correct and you believe that Stage 1 of LR is costing each household approx $500 in our rates (as stated by the LP) how much of our rates are therefore attributable to other government expenditure such as health, education, roads, etc
I ask you that question as it is a well known fact that the construction of light rail Stage 1 is costing less than 1% of total gov expenditure, ie $65m for each of the next four years compared to 3 times that much spent on roads and 55 times that much spent on health and education.
Simple maths tells me that health, education and roads should be reflected in our rates some 58 times that of LR, 58 x $500 = $29,000 per household. Add other services the gov provides and our rates should be approx $35,000 per household !! Do you pay that much rates Greg ??
Do you see where I’m heading Greg. Light rail is actually costing the ACT very little and in fact when you factor the income received due to the LR development is actually costing us pretty well donut.
So this mud slinging lie perpetuated by your Libs may get them into power at the expense of the reputation of this fine city.
Try discussing this issue with a Liberal candidate at a shopping centre and you will be ignored. Try getting some answers on their FB page and your comments will. E deleted and you will be banned from making any further comments on their page.
How does this sit with you Greg ?

Labor have just launched “Mediscare 2.0” with replicas of Medicare cards being dropped in mailboxes.
The card has the medicare logo with “To access local health services under ACT Labor, you need this”.

On the reverse side it has a generic CREDIT CARD” with “To access local health services under The Canberra Liberals you’ll need this”….. and more nonsense about Liberals building privately run emergemcey departments (that is a huge lie)….etc. etc.

Apparently, the Election Commission says if the small print says “Authorised by Mathew Byrne for ACT Labor” anything is permissible.

Looks like Labor have won the election and no one can lay a finger on them.

rommeldog56 said :

However, I wouldn’t under estimate the rusted on Labor views of so many Canberrians and/or their general apathy to change those historical voting habits – no matter what. That’s in large part why we have had 15 years of hard Labor – and getting worse.

I may well be one of those rusted on, but for a few reasons. Firstly I don’t see the Liberals as being any different, and secondly based on overall party direction and beliefs I believe that Labor better represents my views.

And I take offence at being blamed for what you call 15 years of hard Labor as if I have made a mistake. Everyone is entitled to their view, I might call into question that view, but I don’t attack people for having that view.

Mordd / Chris Richards2:06 pm 11 Oct 16

What a load of trollop. Lacking in substance, repeating the same old tired arguments. The only thing I am sure of at this point is not how many seats will go to who, but that no matter what, the Liberals will NOT be forming government, not a hope in hell.

They offer little positive vision for Canberra, a long list of stuff they oppose, and want to waste over $300m by scrapping a construction project already committed to, which will make it a lot more difficult next time they need a private partner for a project of their own as no-one will want to sign with a Government that ripped up a perfectly legal and binding contract when they got into power just because they could.

Maybe if the Liberals ceased the scare campaign of lies, stopped censoring voters discussion online and other candidates messages on the road side and ran a fair campaign of their own the Libs might stand a chance. However that is not the case, and the Libs are going to find themselves in opposition still for many years to come.

pink little birdie1:59 pm 11 Oct 16

I don’t think it will be anywhere near as clear cut as that. Liberal’s don’t actually have a lot of policies that support/help young people/families.

Federal Liberals being in might also have a smaller impact on the election than elsewhere. Most of the arguments on the tram are beginning to sound like the NBN arguments ‘Capital is expensive so we will do this cheap method that is slightly less expensive but we acknowledge that the eventual end product will be the original plan’

I suspect Like Canberra, Greens and Labor will get the younger peoples vote.

devils_advocate10:46 am 11 Oct 16

This is a pretty high-level piece about feelings with little analysis to back it up. Which electorates are going to by won by which parties, and why?

Personally, I’m not so confident about a Liberal win, but would be pleasantly surprised. Maybe with an assist from one or more independents ? But who ? Still, after 15 years or so of hard Labor, if the Libs do get in and don’t do what they say, then I wouldn’t be concerned about voting them out at the next election in 2020. There is no doubt that an alternative incoming ACT Gov’t will find many skeletons in the closet, so a change of Govt may be worthwhile if for no other reason than that.

However, I wouldn’t under estimate the rusted on Labor views of so many Canberrians and/or their general apathy to change those historical voting habits – no matter what. That’s in large part why we have had 15 years of hard Labor – and getting worse.

Personally, I can not see how either party can afford their election promises – I think Labor/Greens will just slug Ratepayers even more and the Lib’s will find a “Barr Budget Black Hole” (and there will be a pretty big one I would think !) in order to reassess their election promises.

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