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Are we in for an extremely cold winter?

By jacarandas 16 May 2011 46

fog over civic

Is it just me or is Autumn this year extremely cold?

I don’t recall seeing negative temperatures during Autumn last year. We hit -6.7 degrees Saturday night.


What’s Your opinion?


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Are we in for an extremely cold winter?
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Diggety 11:51 am 19 May 11

Jethro said :

Diggety said :

Jethro said :

pierce said :

Read a book.

…apart from the fact that current temperature increases are occurring at a rate about 10X faster than was seen at the end of the last ice age..

Time to update that book collection. Predictions are changing at a faster rate than the climate, funnily (and understandably) enough.

Scientists- particularly those who aren’t trying their hand at politics- have learned it is wise to refrain from announcing dire predictions or effects, until they have a good degree of certainty.

Where is the lack of certainty that temperatures have risen by close to 1 degree in the last century?

There are very clear records of this occurring. That is not a prediction of future rate of change, but of change that has already occurred. If it took 5000 years for temperatures to change 5 degrees and it has taken 100 years for temperatures to change 1 degree that is evidence that the current (not future) rate of change is 10X faster than the end of the last ice age.

First, “certainty” in science is a big call. It is a status that requires a lot of scrutiny, agreement, empirical evidence (repeatable) and solid theory. The one thing that is certain is that 1’C increase in 20th century is not certain (yet). And the rate of increase you mentioned will take even longer for a proof.

Three things:
1. Method of data collection, this is particularly an issue for historical evidence (in this case you have used at least two methods, i.e. cavemen didn’t have thermometers.
2. Data interpretation. So much contention over a curve! Deriving a conclusion or even further hypothesis has (and will continue to be) difficult for wider acceptance, simply due to statistical acceptance.
3. Temperature variables- this is a hot debate at the moment with some methods of data collection/interpretation.

Jethro 8:36 pm 18 May 11

Diggety said :

Jethro said :

pierce said :

Read a book.

…apart from the fact that current temperature increases are occurring at a rate about 10X faster than was seen at the end of the last ice age..

Time to update that book collection. Predictions are changing at a faster rate than the climate, funnily (and understandably) enough.

Scientists- particularly those who aren’t trying their hand at politics- have learned it is wise to refrain from announcing dire predictions or effects, until they have a good degree of certainty.

Where is the lack of certainty that temperatures have risen by close to 1 degree in the last century?

There are very clear records of this occurring. That is not a prediction of future rate of change, but of change that has already occurred. If it took 5000 years for temperatures to change 5 degrees and it has taken 100 years for temperatures to change 1 degree that is evidence that the current (not future) rate of change is 10X faster than the end of the last ice age.

Diggety 10:11 am 18 May 11

Jethro said :

pierce said :

Read a book.

…apart from the fact that current temperature increases are occurring at a rate about 10X faster than was seen at the end of the last ice age..

Time to update that book collection. Predictions are changing at a faster rate than the climate, funnily (and understandably) enough.

Scientists- particularly those who aren’t trying their hand at politics- have learned it is wise to refrain from announcing dire predictions or effects, until they have a good degree of certainty.

Jethro 11:38 pm 17 May 11

zig said :

pierce said :

The term Climate Change more accurately reflects the impact that rising global temperatures have on the Earth’s climate – most notably greater extremes in all forms of weather. Yes, including cold.

Read a book.

U mad bro?

History shows climate change is cyclical so I don’t buy into the sky is falling in theory.

All good and well, apart from the fact that current temperature increases are occurring at a rate about 10X faster than was seen at the end of the last ice age. (It took about 5000 years for the Earth’s temperature to increase by about 5.5 degrees… the Earths’ temperautre has increased by close to 2 degree in less than one hundred years.)

But don’t worry. It’s a natural fluctuation. (Note: I always trust the armchair scientists over the real ones)

I said
“increase by 2 degree”

typo… should have said “1 degree” don’t want to be accused of anything here…

Jethro 11:37 pm 17 May 11

zig said :

pierce said :

The term Climate Change more accurately reflects the impact that rising global temperatures have on the Earth’s climate – most notably greater extremes in all forms of weather. Yes, including cold.

Read a book.

U mad bro?

History shows climate change is cyclical so I don’t buy into the sky is falling in theory.

All good and well, apart from the fact that current temperature increases are occurring at a rate about 10X faster than was seen at the end of the last ice age. (It took about 5000 years for the Earth’s temperature to increase by about 5.5 degrees… the Earths’ temperautre has increased by close to 1 degree in less than one hundred years.)

But don’t worry. It’s a natural fluctuation. (Note: I always trust the armchair scientists over the real ones)

zig 3:42 pm 17 May 11

pierce said :

The term Climate Change more accurately reflects the impact that rising global temperatures have on the Earth’s climate – most notably greater extremes in all forms of weather. Yes, including cold.

Read a book.

U mad bro?

History shows climate change is cyclical so I don’t buy into the sky is falling in theory.

I’m all for lessening our environmental impact as much as possible but I think there needs to be balance. 🙂

troll-sniffer said :

John Moulis said :

This means that it is perfectly possible to get colder winters as part of the cycle.

Yep and it was the coldest May since 1974 so it’s happened before. Woopy Doo.

spinact 9:14 pm 16 May 11

Pommy bastard said :

I certaily hope we’re in for a cold one, makes me quite homesick.

Mind you I could do without all the idiots driving in pea-soup fog with no lights on, as evidenced this morning…

And the same idiots probably have their fogs lights on when there is no fog

bobzed57 8:59 pm 16 May 11

creative_canberran said :

The BoM also seems to be getting it very badly wrong this year. And obviously wrong too.
Day after day of predicting 0 for the overnight and instead it drops to -3 or more… isn’t someone going to wake up and realise something is wrong with their predictions? And predicting 15 as today’s max when it is -7 overnight, foggy and partly cloudy… well that was never going to happen. It’s 2pm and only just reached +7 degrees.

Don’t forget the BOM and the CSIRO have an interest in pushing the warming barrow, it’s good for the grant and funding business.

troll-sniffer 8:44 pm 16 May 11

John Moulis said :

Gee, good thing we have “global warming” or whatever it’s being called this week. Just think how cold it would be otherwise. The reason why “global warming” was rebranded “climate change” was because we had several very cold winters during the drought and the public were seeing right through the stupid and fallacious greenie BS.

If you took your finger out of where the sun don’t shine and used it to flick through some research instead of pontificating from a pinnacle of ignorance, you would start to understand that global warming, climate change, AGW, whatever you want to call it, has little to do with a uniform increase that would lead to warmer winters etc. What it does do is increase the planet’s requirement to shift heat from the equatorial regions to the poles. The more heat at the equator, the faster the transfer must take place over the course of a year or several. This leads to more erratic weather, sometimes it’s manifested in more violent winds, mostly it is just showing up by more extreme weather. This means that it is perfectly possible to get colder winters as part of the cycle. But I guess if you haven’t bothered to find that out by now, and possibly don’t have the necessary to understand it, you will be unlikely to ever accept it. It’s soooo much easier to sit back in front of your plasma TV and poo poo it isn’t it?

pierce 8:25 pm 16 May 11

The term Climate Change more accurately reflects the impact that rising global temperatures have on the Earth’s climate – most notably greater extremes in all forms of weather. Yes, including cold.

Read a book.

zig 7:49 pm 16 May 11

John Moulis said :

Gee, good thing we have “global warming” or whatever it’s being called this week. Just think how cold it would be otherwise. The reason why “global warming” was rebranded “climate change” was because we had several very cold winters during the drought and the public were seeing right through the stupid and fallacious greenie BS.

hehe +1

Deref 6:17 pm 16 May 11

Gungahlin Al said :

Stand by for the usual ill-informed “I thought climate change was supposed toi make it hotter” comments from the usual suspects.

I’ve seen some already from certain ACT Liberal MLAs on FB.

+1

I love the cold weather. Thank the gods for good insulation and r/c air though.

Thumper 6:04 pm 16 May 11

I’d like to see some snow in compensation for pain endured.

Pain?

Les Lozenger 5:29 pm 16 May 11

I agree with Mystery Man. I’d like to see some snow in compensation for pain endured.

I’ve seen long cast weather reports stating that this is just an initial cold blast preceding what is apparently going to be a “warmer than normal winter”. Given the current lack of successful low and high temperature predictions, I’ll believe it when I see it.

Holden Caulfield 4:43 pm 16 May 11

Haha, Gungahlin Al, you didn’t have to wait too long.

John Moulis 4:03 pm 16 May 11

Gee, good thing we have “global warming” or whatever it’s being called this week. Just think how cold it would be otherwise. The reason why “global warming” was rebranded “climate change” was because we had several very cold winters during the drought and the public were seeing right through the stupid and fallacious greenie BS.

EvanJames 3:54 pm 16 May 11

I did about 5 kg of green tomato pickle (using the recipe posted here last week)! But then I ran out of jars. I’ve got enough for about 3 years if I eat a LOT of pickle. Still working through the similar chutney from 3 years ago (luckily it improves with age).

I’ve found ripening very green tomatoes in the past a bit hit-or-miss. They often rot before they ripen. The old saw is to pull up the entire tattered wreck of the plant, and hang it up with tomatoes attached, but haven’t had huge luck with that.

The Frots 3:09 pm 16 May 11

Watson said :

Gungahlin Al said :

I remember as a kid and living in typical no-star brick govvies having the blanket on 3 all night

You had an ELECTRIC BLANKET as a kid?! Spoiled, I say! I didn’t even get a hot water bottle, just one blanket. And I grew up in Belgium were -20 wasn’t unusual and lived in a dilapidated terrace house with rotting window frames.

And walked 10kms to school, through the snow, barefoot, etc.

And you were so poor as a family that all you kids would gather around your fathers mouth as he chewed a mint just to get the warmth? (I did – just wondering whether you had to as well!). I spent most of the morning trying to pry the dogs tongue off the back sliding door window due to the cold. I think he’ll recover, but he’ll be eating soup for a few days!

As for that damn cat……………………………….

isaidno 3:06 pm 16 May 11

Cool! Hopefully we get some snow this year.

switch 2:08 pm 16 May 11

Green tomato chutney!

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