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Are we in for an extremely cold winter?

By jacarandas 16 May 2011 46

fog over civic

Is it just me or is Autumn this year extremely cold?

I don’t recall seeing negative temperatures during Autumn last year. We hit -6.7 degrees Saturday night.

What’s Your opinion?


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Are we in for an extremely cold winter?
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Diggety 11:51 am 19 May 11

Jethro said :

Diggety said :

Jethro said :

pierce said :

Read a book.

…apart from the fact that current temperature increases are occurring at a rate about 10X faster than was seen at the end of the last ice age..

Time to update that book collection. Predictions are changing at a faster rate than the climate, funnily (and understandably) enough.

Scientists- particularly those who aren’t trying their hand at politics- have learned it is wise to refrain from announcing dire predictions or effects, until they have a good degree of certainty.

Where is the lack of certainty that temperatures have risen by close to 1 degree in the last century?

There are very clear records of this occurring. That is not a prediction of future rate of change, but of change that has already occurred. If it took 5000 years for temperatures to change 5 degrees and it has taken 100 years for temperatures to change 1 degree that is evidence that the current (not future) rate of change is 10X faster than the end of the last ice age.

First, “certainty” in science is a big call. It is a status that requires a lot of scrutiny, agreement, empirical evidence (repeatable) and solid theory. The one thing that is certain is that 1’C increase in 20th century is not certain (yet). And the rate of increase you mentioned will take even longer for a proof.

Three things:
1. Method of data collection, this is particularly an issue for historical evidence (in this case you have used at least two methods, i.e. cavemen didn’t have thermometers.
2. Data interpretation. So much contention over a curve! Deriving a conclusion or even further hypothesis has (and will continue to be) difficult for wider acceptance, simply due to statistical acceptance.
3. Temperature variables- this is a hot debate at the moment with some methods of data collection/interpretation.

Jethro 8:36 pm 18 May 11

Diggety said :

Jethro said :

pierce said :

Read a book.

…apart from the fact that current temperature increases are occurring at a rate about 10X faster than was seen at the end of the last ice age..

Time to update that book collection. Predictions are changing at a faster rate than the climate, funnily (and understandably) enough.

Scientists- particularly those who aren’t trying their hand at politics- have learned it is wise to refrain from announcing dire predictions or effects, until they have a good degree of certainty.

Where is the lack of certainty that temperatures have risen by close to 1 degree in the last century?

There are very clear records of this occurring. That is not a prediction of future rate of change, but of change that has already occurred. If it took 5000 years for temperatures to change 5 degrees and it has taken 100 years for temperatures to change 1 degree that is evidence that the current (not future) rate of change is 10X faster than the end of the last ice age.

Diggety 10:11 am 18 May 11

Jethro said :

pierce said :

Read a book.

…apart from the fact that current temperature increases are occurring at a rate about 10X faster than was seen at the end of the last ice age..

Time to update that book collection. Predictions are changing at a faster rate than the climate, funnily (and understandably) enough.

Scientists- particularly those who aren’t trying their hand at politics- have learned it is wise to refrain from announcing dire predictions or effects, until they have a good degree of certainty.

Jethro 11:38 pm 17 May 11

zig said :

pierce said :

The term Climate Change more accurately reflects the impact that rising global temperatures have on the Earth’s climate – most notably greater extremes in all forms of weather. Yes, including cold.

Read a book.

U mad bro?

History shows climate change is cyclical so I don’t buy into the sky is falling in theory.

All good and well, apart from the fact that current temperature increases are occurring at a rate about 10X faster than was seen at the end of the last ice age. (It took about 5000 years for the Earth’s temperature to increase by about 5.5 degrees… the Earths’ temperautre has increased by close to 2 degree in less than one hundred years.)

But don’t worry. It’s a natural fluctuation. (Note: I always trust the armchair scientists over the real ones)

I said
“increase by 2 degree”

typo… should have said “1 degree” don’t want to be accused of anything here…

Jethro 11:37 pm 17 May 11

zig said :

pierce said :

The term Climate Change more accurately reflects the impact that rising global temperatures have on the Earth’s climate – most notably greater extremes in all forms of weather. Yes, including cold.

Read a book.

U mad bro?

History shows climate change is cyclical so I don’t buy into the sky is falling in theory.

All good and well, apart from the fact that current temperature increases are occurring at a rate about 10X faster than was seen at the end of the last ice age. (It took about 5000 years for the Earth’s temperature to increase by about 5.5 degrees… the Earths’ temperautre has increased by close to 1 degree in less than one hundred years.)

But don’t worry. It’s a natural fluctuation. (Note: I always trust the armchair scientists over the real ones)

zig 3:42 pm 17 May 11

pierce said :

The term Climate Change more accurately reflects the impact that rising global temperatures have on the Earth’s climate – most notably greater extremes in all forms of weather. Yes, including cold.

Read a book.

U mad bro?

History shows climate change is cyclical so I don’t buy into the sky is falling in theory.

I’m all for lessening our environmental impact as much as possible but I think there needs to be balance. 🙂

troll-sniffer said :

John Moulis said :

This means that it is perfectly possible to get colder winters as part of the cycle.

Yep and it was the coldest May since 1974 so it’s happened before. Woopy Doo.

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