20 October 2006

Barr says "demographic changes" make closures necessary

| IBN News
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There’s been lots of numbers flying around with the land tax debate this week.

And now there’s even more statistics, this time with the school closures controversy.

Education minister Andrew Barr is quoting ABS numbers to back up his case.

He says the ACT has had a declining birth rate for a while now, and demographic changes justify the closing of some smaller schools in suburbs with declining populations.

Barr also quoted some research yesterday about the government’s Towards 2020 plan, which contained the rather disturbing line that, in effect, parents who were initially angry about the changes eventually saw the light.

UPDATE: The Save Our Schools group has its own take on the ABS birth figures. Read their media release here.

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Yes but by building heaps of schools in gunghalin to cope with the current increase, you are creating a problem for later on when the population ages. It would be smart to build some schools with a future purpose in mind (old folks home, ymca, office block etc) so as to avoid this syndrome of building and selling schools as the poulation changes. The current plan is very short sighted, as there are plenty of kids in the inner north, and when they are older there is only one high school, and there will be no college.

Miz, not sure of the exact ABS methodology but it would have to be all kids (public and private). Don’t agree with you on the stats – they show that more schools are needed in Gungahlin and fewer schools are needed in other places.

When you have less kids overall and less in public ed, some schools have gotta go.

PB, you’re a champ – thanks. I assume they have added up all the public and private school enrolments? No info was gathered from me in 2005 . . .

The ABS stats make you wonder why Chisholm (declining) is now getting an amalgamated school (unlike Gilmore – not declining but for no rational reason on the list for closure with 270 odd kids!) and Wanniassa (in same boat as Kambah) gets to keep theirs . . . it is just so arbitrary. Well the stats have proved they haven’t paid any attention to the actual demographics and it is all puff.

Miz

The data you are after on school age population in each suburb canbe found at:

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/8DB32ABAC6082D01CA2571CA007A3681?opendocument

I meant the recent ABS census, though your info about the school figures being tracked mid-year is interesting. (Thank God they at least they do that!)

My quibble though is that there seems to be no way of tracking how many actual school-age children there are in each suburb/PEA, given that 1. births are not indicative enough, and 2. who knows how many children at the various private schools are from which govt school PEA. I thought the ABS data from the recent census might give a more accurate figure, instead of Barr chucking data about birth rates around. Not that they care of course – I suppose I’m putting my faith in the (unlikely) premise that they actually might make a fair and reasonable decision in the end!

There is a second census in July to keep the numbers “right” i.e. 1 teacher for 15 students.

So we could “graph” Feb 2006, July 2006, Feb 2007 to compare the changes.

The census data (out in March, if memory serves) would be a better indicator of numbers of school-age children on a suburb-by-suurb basis. At least that would include people that have moved to Canberra for work and brought their families (and there seem to be a lot of these in my govt department).

Of course, the date when decisions on school closures are to be made is in December . . .
The timing of the whole process and this current spin on demographics is disengenuous.

simbo, how many pollies with kids actually send their kids to Govt schools? Vicki Dunne and Katy Gallagher are the only two who have stated this.

Reading Hansard, you would know that.

The fact that he doesn’t have kids means he doesn’t empathise with the communities that he is destroying.

The parents and students will be affected by closures, staffing is affected by closures, student learning will be affected by closures as each school DOESN’T run the same curriculum “choices” at the same time, students with special needs will be affected.

Is he empathetic? No. Will he care when the whole plan goes pear-shaped? No.

Does he care more about the bottom line? Yes. Is he a puppet? Yes.

So he should grow a backbone, agree with Vicki Dunne to a longer process with more research and an actual strategic management plan before sending ACT education down the toilet.

Besides, Towards 2020 ISN’T stemming the tide to private education, it’s aiding it. Parents don’t like uncertainty when it comes to their children.

I look forward to comparing the February 2007 Census with the February 2006 data (before the announcement was made).

Anyone want to take a guess what the numbers will be like?

Nyssa, I have no doubt that many of the architects of 2020 are parents (from vague memory, Stanhope would be amongst them) – and, considering that Barr had been minister for about two months before the policy was introduced, I really rather doubt that his procreational status had any impact on why it was developed.

Look, I agree that it appears to be a policy put together on the run without sufficient due thought and consideration. And that’s a healthy, sensible argument to run.

Running the argument that he doesn’t understand because he doesn’t have kids is not a sensible argument, and it damages your cause immensely to have it mixed in with the rest of your arguments. If you can’t identify, isolate and remove the crap arguemnts from the good ones, then it’s very difficult to get people rallying to your cause.

Nyssa has hit the nail on the head. Barr doesn’t care, his only interest is self-interest – proving he can make it through this initiation period, and probably some kind of anal (so to speak!) obsession with balancing the books.

Mr Barr’s sexuality has come up (so to speak again) in a few amusing asides – eg at the tuggeranong forum: when he was banging on (and again!) about demographics, one bloke from Kambah said VERY loudly, “WE’RE still breeding, what are you doin’?” Barr has zero cred, and maybe his sexuality (insofar as he is unlikely to reproduce) is a factor in some parents’ eyes. But I don’t care if he’s gay or straight, he’s still a DROPKICK.

This whole birth rate thing is a red herring, it’s not the issue. There are private schools bursting at the seams, and also Canberra is very transient with people with kids Already Born (!) coming here – eg me, I have three and we arrived when my youngest was in Kindergarten. There are plenty of kids. But parents are smart, and since the economic boom have some discretionary cash, and they don’t want to send their kids to a school they PERCEIVE to be run down.

Fact is, the public system HAS been left to go to rack and ruin since self-government. It’s the common or garden rationalist trick of letting things dwindle to crap then going, hey, this is not working, let’s rationalise/privatise etc. Though I hasten to add that in reality the public system is damn fine still, as it was outstanding previously. But the PERCEPTION is one of decline.

Sure AD, Schools need to close to work within the budget set. As to which schools close is a major issue. It seems the gubmint has just axed schools with little thought about why.

Close your eyes and point at the map is a good a reason as any.

Vic Bitterman5:07 pm 20 Oct 06

Are you a boong Nyssa?

Noice.

Absent Diane5:05 pm 20 Oct 06

and many parents with opinions should be discredited as they have too much emotional attachment to the issue and therefore are unable to contribute unbiased logic.

Nyssa your comment “might” suggests that you only have a tan. But don’t let me stop you from associating with the black fella cause.

Absent Diane4:56 pm 20 Oct 06

the schools need to close. period. anyone with a quarter of a brain can work that out.

barking toad4:22 pm 20 Oct 06

Barr is just a labor hack thrown to the wolves by nohope in the education portfolio as the messenger to deliver the funding cuts disguised as planning

And he’s a poof

Except that for anyone who’s gay it is a lot harder to have children, so the outcome of what you’re saying is that no one who’s gay (or infertile) can be the education minister. And that position is fucked, I don’t care how you came to it.

Pandy, I wouldn’t post a pic, you might recognise my Aboriginality and become a red neck again.

Simto, the decisions being made will affect the ACT for the next 10+yrs and shouldn’t be thrown out as a policy with little thought.

I’ve already explained that they haven’t followed the policy plan as asserted by the Govt in regards to education.

If you mess with it now, there will be negative consequences. It’s all about saving money and not about education. There has been NO strategic management whatsoever. The policy is a farce.

Nothing can move on in Education without this. Staffing can’t be done for secondary. Primary staffing has been advertised but with the schools being closed down this year and next in it.

He has no real impact on how this decision will affect the families of the ACT nor it’s teachers nor the students learning.

School closures will disrupt the system, the new ACT Curriculum will disrupt the system next year as well as will the mandated requirements through DEST.

If Mr. Barr had children he would understand the frustration and uncertainty facing parents in those areas where schools are allocated to close.

Just because you’ve been to school doesn’t mean you know all about school. As minister for Education he should be ashamed of himself.

And yes I am passionate about school closures and education.

Do I give a rats if he was straight/sterile/gay/alien etc? No. Can he effectively do his job with logic and compassion? No.

Absent Diane4:00 pm 20 Oct 06

BAM

Pandy just saved me from triple-posting…

Your opinion that education ministers must have children because their decisions affect children invites the following questions:

Must ministers for the arts be artists?
Must ministers for unemployment be unemployed (yes, I know it’s a contradiction in terms)?
Must a minister for defence be invaded?
Must a minister for emergency services have their house burn down?
Must a minister for health have a disease?

Or is education just so incredibly special that the minister responsible has to have a personal interest as well as a general societal involvement?

I’m interested, Nyssa. Have you thought this through at all? Or is it that you don’t like the policy (for damn good reasons) and are therefore associating it with the life choices of the bloke promoting it (for no good reason at all)?

Nyssa, post a picture of yourself and then I’ll decide if I want to kiss your homophobic arse: with a capital “A”.

And I’ll add – just because he hasn’t put it in the media that he’s not interested in adopting doesn’t mean he’s not interested in doing it. Strangely enough, even in this modern age, people do all kinds of wild and crazy things without alerting the media to it.

Well, if we’re only allowing people to comment on stuff where they’re actively involved in it, then that’ll shut this site down immediately. None of us are politicians, so we can’t discuss politics. Few of us are police, so we can’t discuss policing (that’ll make VG very happy…)

And you’re not my type, Nyss. So I’m kissing nothing.

Or to add some other examples, can only people with disabilities make decisions about disabled care? Can people who drive everywhere make decisions about public transport, or can home owners make decisions about public housing?

So only people with children can have an opinion on education? What if he were straight and sterile rather than gay? What if he just didn’t have a partner? What if he had kids in the private system? It’s a slippery slippery slope once you start making those kinds of aspersions.

The counter argument that he’s not likely to have any kids so there fore he’s above the public vs. private education battle could just as easily be made.

You can read it all you like Pandy and simto, and then kiss my arse.

His decisions affect people with children. He’s not having any soon – not in the media that he’s adopting/IVF with surrogate and the like.

So how in the hell would he know?

barking toad3:13 pm 20 Oct 06

nice one Ari

Is a “less than salubrious” nightclub just another term for a seedy Barr?

To correct myself (and to increase knowledge amongst my fellow rioters), my reference to “salubrious” nightclubs should be “less than salubrious” nightclubs. According to Dictionary.com, “Salubrious” actually means “healthful”.

Well, the category is “education”, and this post is educational – I think I’m on topic, anyway…

A few people I know with kids had said to me (also smugly) – Oh, I wish we all had the luxary to do/buy (insert various things here)…
My reaction was – stiff shit, you chose to have kids and I didn’t – therefore I can spend my hard earned money on whatever the hell I want.
I also understand what JB is saying about resentment.

ooh, i’ve touched a nerve AM?

You only comment when you’re worried.

Or when you’re full of shit.

What evidence have you got, incidentally, that Barr leads a “flashy lifestyle”? I haven’t seen his car – is it particularly snazzy? Is he constantly seen to be half-drunkenly lolling around outside salubrious nightclubs, Paris Hilton style?

Please, tell me more about this so-called “flashy lifestyle”. Or is this just – “well, he’s gay, we all know they’re doing drugs and raving all the time”?

Absent Diane1:30 pm 20 Oct 06

or maybe nature is just preventing my genes from spreading. Who can know?

Absent Diane1:18 pm 20 Oct 06

my conciouness is far beyond the basic instinct to procreate. I am sorry for being advanced 😛

Kids and homosexuality, JB. You ought to know those two issue are bound to upset someone.

There’s a lot of smugness around people with kids. I’ve seen quite a few articles written by parents saying that couples without kids lead a selfish life. Well – they may mean that that such people have the luxury of an existence that can be centered on themselves, but it comes out more like “You’re nasty, brutish folk for not procreating”.

I always love the word “choose” there, it implies so much about how people live their lives.

Again, I re-iterate, I don’t know what Mr Barr’s opinion on child raising one way or the other is. He may very well view it with complete abhorrence. Or he might really, desperately want to be a parent, but know that there’s no way he can do it under the present system.

Have you touched a nerve? Damn right you have. I don’t have kids, and, goddamnit, I really would like to have ’em. And, due to a combination of biology and circumstance, it’s unlikely to ever happen. And that’s going to hurt me, probably forever.

Absent Diane12:50 pm 20 Oct 06

guilty? not having children is seriously not a bad thing…

ooh, i’ve touched a nerve AM?

You only comment when you’re worried.

as a childless 30 something i’m as guilty as anyone

JB – I haven’t seen any growing tide of resentment (beyond peoples’ disgust with consumerism) about people without kid having flash lifestyles.

Anyone whining can stick it. If someone choses not to have kids, that’s their perogative.

Simto, i think there’s a growing tide of resentment against people, either straight or not, who choose a flashy lifestyle over the grind and responsibility of child raising.

Frankly i don’t blame them.

WTF are you talking about JB, what tide of resentment? I can’t say I’ve noticed one, and how is his lifestyle flashy, or is that just dog whistle homophobia?

Plus the guy’s bloody well gay so it’d be a hell of a lot more work to have children to raise than it would be for a straight person.

Absent Diane12:23 pm 20 Oct 06

allowed or expected?

Its probably why he was put in the position as he isn’t affected by anything to do with schools.

Its the internet – Cheap shots are allowed.

Absent Diane12:03 pm 20 Oct 06

you don’t blame the people with resentment or the people not bringing up children?

Simto, i think there’s a growing tide of resentment against people, either straight or not, who choose a flashy lifestyle over the grind and responsibility of child raising.

Frankly i don’t blame them.

Good one Nyssa. You live in a glasshouse?

Nyssa, your cheap shot about Barr and the birth rate is just that – cheap.

I don’t know whether Barr and his long term partner intend to have children (through adoption or surrogacy)- but I suspect you don’t either.

So please make your points using relevant arguments – not insinuating “he’s a poof so he doesn’t know anything about having kids”.

Noted in our school newsletter uesterday was the Goverment’s official line on the the 20/20 plan and knowing the Principal’s vehement opposition to it it’s a shame no right of reply was allowed in the Newsletter in the week our submission against closure was sent in.

Noted in our school newsletter uesterday was the Goverment’s official line on the the 20/20 plan and knowing the Principal’s vehement opposition to it it’s a shame no right of reply was allowed in the Newsletter in the week our submission against closure was sent in.

Absent Diane10:32 am 20 Oct 06

I agree che… they probably are doing the right thing… they just haven’t taken a transparent approach to it.

yes but the ACT govt are taking the gamble that those couples in the inner north having kids will move out of their 2 bedroom appt and move to Gungahlin to get a McMansion to raise the kids in

they could be right, but it would be nice if they tried to be honest about the approach they were taking rather than asking everyone to just “trust us, we’re the govt”

He’s only using the stats that he “needs” as opposed to the truth.

But surely demographic changes show that Chifley has a huge growth in births yet they are closing the school.Also the inner north is having a huge baby boom.

We enrolled our little girl at Cook primary yesterday. She is the first enrolment for 2012. Hopefully the school will still be there by then.

its always fun to quote from a confidential report that no one has read

It’s not like he’s going to assist the birth rate any time soon.

Bring on the next election…then we’ll see how many parents “see the light”.

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