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Brexit – Broke-it

By John Hargreaves 4 July 2016 34

Brexit

I saw it coming but went into denial. I didn’t think a smidgen over 50% of a country like Britain could be so reckless, so isolationist, so insecure in a global environment.

I didn’t think the leave-like-lemmings herd mentality would have such consequences. I didn’t believe that wiser heads would not prevail and a tsunami of self-immolation would ensue.

Well, I got that one wrong, eh?

I’ve got relatives in the UK and they live in the West Midlands. That region voted 58.something to leave. My relatives voted to stay. The comments they have passed on to me and this seems to be consistent from both camps, is that the proponents (of both arguments) lied and were thin in substantive argument. Both camps were cynical of their own side not to mention the opposing argument.

What I can’t fathom is why so many people voted for such a drastic outcome when they were not given all of the facts and consequences that blind Freddie could see. They didn’t take Paul Keating’s advice over the GST in the ’93 campaign – “if you don’t understand it, don’t vote for it”.

So far the outcomes have been catastrophic. The political fabric in England has broken down, with a PM resigning (only to stay on as a lame duck for three months), half of the shadow cabinet have resigned to oust the Leader of the Opposition, the pound took a nose dive worthy of an Olympic medal, the stock markets around the world have reacted negatively, xenophobia has taken off, Scotland wants to go it alone in the EU and revisit the independence referendum and Northern Ireland sided with Eire in a notable expression of Irish unity.

What part of global citizenship don’t these people get?

Brexit 1

When I did Defence and Strategic Studies at Deakin Uni a hundred thousand years ago, I was taught that the art of diplomacy was being in the conversation. Being inside the tent meant staying dry, outside and you get rained on (so to speak, if you get the drift). Isolationism is not only yesterday’s notion, it is dangerous and deadly.

Some pundits say that the sovereignty of Britain was under threat from a non-elected European Parliament, some say that Britain was shouldering more than a fair share of the economic load needed to sustain the European community, some say that the open borders policy has wrecked the health system and Jobson Groathe has snuffed it.

Well, the immigration issue is not something new in Britain. One has only to wander in some of the major cities to see the multicultural nature of today’s Britain. Closing the borders is not going to solve the issue. Too late she cried. This has only created anxiety and with that comes desperation and then reaction. There are huge numbers of people living in Britain who now fear they will be asked to leave. There are huge numbers of ex-pat Brits overseas who are worried they may be asked to go back to Britain.

I’ve just scratched the surface of this insane outcome. Let’s hope that the invocation of Clause 50 is held over until people have had a chance to take a deep breath. I know of stories where the “Leave” voters have woken up to a morning of great uncertainty, greater chance of job losses and financial hardship. I have heard stories of people wanting to change their vote. Given that it was a 52/48 split, perhaps it would be wise to do it all again.

When I came into the world, it was at a time of the final disintegration of the British Empire, with India and Pakistan going it alone. The Raj was finally dead. During the ensuing period, Britain has gone through tough times and top times but there are clearly some millions of folks there that refuse to accept that the Empire is dead. The Commonwealth, a constitutional monarchical yet democratic institution of member states, has replaced it.

Will Britain now leave the Commonwealth if it doesn’t suit it to remain? Will “Great” Britain now completely disintegrate with an independent Scotland, a re-united Ireland (with the Welsh just sitting by, watching)?

This tsunami may just be the catalyst for the ripping apart of a once great nation. Sad really.

All because of the Streaker’s Defence! It seemed a good idea at the time!

Waddya reckon?


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Brexit – Broke-it
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Fluffy 11:34 am 17 Sep 16

Mordd said :

Maya123 said :

Here’s every reason why John Hargreaves is wrong: http://www.captain-awesome.net/2016/07/06/a-response-to-john-hargreaves-regarding-the-brexit/

Well, it demands that john show a whole bunch of things, which considering this was an op-ed not a news article is a bit much, but then goes on to show nothing itself. All it does is ask a lot of questions, but does nothing to show why those questions are even valid. I am sorry but that response is even more vapid than the piece it is criticising. It provides zero reasons why John is wrong, instead it just makes a lot of aspersions and allegations without virtually anything to actually back that up. Anyone can do that, it takes actual work to refute points with real arguments instead of vague questions though, guess that was too hard for the author.

Because in logical discourse, an unsupported assertion or implication is fundamentally equivalent to being wrong. And his article is all unsupported assertions and implications. The questions I asked point out each and every one of his unsupported assertions. If he has yet to support any of his assertions, he’s basically wrong. About everything.

Dreadnaught1905 5:04 pm 07 Jul 16

Kent Street said :

No, I don’t remember any neo-nazis or skinheads.

I *do* however remember the 2011 London riots, where 3443 crimes were recorded in London in a one-week period. This total included hundreds of race-hate crimes targeting London’s white-skinned minority.

Just out of interest, was that a “catastrophe”?

It certainly was for the five people who died.

Although, I have to say, 60% does not a minority make…

Mordd 3:27 pm 07 Jul 16

JoueurBoy said :

MERC600 said :

Maya123 said :

Here’s every reason why John Hargreaves is wrong: http://www.captain-awesome.net/2016/07/06/a-response-to-john-hargreaves-regarding-the-brexit/

Well, it demands that john show a whole bunch of things, which considering this was an op-ed not a news article is a bit much, but then goes on to show nothing itself. All it does is ask a lot of questions, but does nothing to show why those questions are even valid. I am sorry but that response is even more vapid than the piece it is criticising. It provides zero reasons why John is wrong, instead it just makes a lot of aspersions and allegations without virtually anything to actually back that up. Anyone can do that, it takes actual work to refute points with real arguments instead of vague questions though, guess that was too hard for the author.

Sorry I missed you at Wanniassa Hills on Saturday

no worries, see you on the campaign trail in the coming months

John Hargreaves 3:13 pm 07 Jul 16

MERC600 said :

Maya123 said :

Here’s every reason why John Hargreaves is wrong: http://www.captain-awesome.net/2016/07/06/a-response-to-john-hargreaves-regarding-the-brexit/

Well, it demands that john show a whole bunch of things, which considering this was an op-ed not a news article is a bit much, but then goes on to show nothing itself. All it does is ask a lot of questions, but does nothing to show why those questions are even valid. I am sorry but that response is even more vapid than the piece it is criticising. It provides zero reasons why John is wrong, instead it just makes a lot of aspersions and allegations without virtually anything to actually back that up. Anyone can do that, it takes actual work to refute points with real arguments instead of vague questions though, guess that was too hard for the author.

Sorry I missed you at Wanniassa Hills on Saturday

Mysteryman 1:26 pm 07 Jul 16

MERC600 said :

Maya123 said :

Here’s every reason why John Hargreaves is wrong: http://www.captain-awesome.net/2016/07/06/a-response-to-john-hargreaves-regarding-the-brexit/

Well, it demands that john show a whole bunch of things, which considering this was an op-ed not a news article is a bit much, but then goes on to show nothing itself. All it does is ask a lot of questions, but does nothing to show why those questions are even valid.

It does ask a lot of questions. And they are good questions.. ones that John should have asked himself when he was writing his piece, and answer in the piece itself. Pity he did neither.

MERC600 said :

I am sorry but that response is even more vapid than the piece it is criticising. It provides zero reasons why John is wrong, instead it just makes a lot of aspersions and allegations without virtually anything to actually back that up. Anyone can do that, it takes actual work to refute points with real arguments instead of vague questions though, guess that was too hard for the author.

John’s points weren’t even points to refute. As you said, it was an op-ed and not a news article. How do you refute baseless opinion?

Fluffy 7:36 am 07 Jul 16

MERC600 said :

Maya123 said :

Here’s every reason why John Hargreaves is wrong: http://www.captain-awesome.net/2016/07/06/a-response-to-john-hargreaves-regarding-the-brexit/

Well, it demands that john show a whole bunch of things, which considering this was an op-ed not a news article is a bit much, but then goes on to show nothing itself. All it does is ask a lot of questions, but does nothing to show why those questions are even valid. I am sorry but that response is even more vapid than the piece it is criticising. It provides zero reasons why John is wrong, instead it just makes a lot of aspersions and allegations without virtually anything to actually back that up. Anyone can do that, it takes actual work to refute points with real arguments instead of vague questions though, guess that was too hard for the author.

You should read more carefully. In addition to pointing out his logical errors and asking questions regarding points which were not logically supported at all, I provided facts which proved various of his assertions incorrect, including: FTSE100 growth, Euro drop, import and export details, and so on.

Blen_Carmichael 7:31 am 07 Jul 16

“[B]ut there are clearly some millions of folks there that refuse to accept that the Empire is dead.”

I must have missed something. Was this a plebiscite on making Britain’s navy the biggest in the world? Re-taking Aquitaine? Nullifying British recognition of the United States of America?”

Mordd 12:21 am 07 Jul 16

Maya123 said :

Here’s every reason why John Hargreaves is wrong: http://www.captain-awesome.net/2016/07/06/a-response-to-john-hargreaves-regarding-the-brexit/

Well, it demands that john show a whole bunch of things, which considering this was an op-ed not a news article is a bit much, but then goes on to show nothing itself. All it does is ask a lot of questions, but does nothing to show why those questions are even valid. I am sorry but that response is even more vapid than the piece it is criticising. It provides zero reasons why John is wrong, instead it just makes a lot of aspersions and allegations without virtually anything to actually back that up. Anyone can do that, it takes actual work to refute points with real arguments instead of vague questions though, guess that was too hard for the author.

HenryBG 6:38 pm 06 Jul 16

Firstly, the outcomes have been catastrophic. Race-related crimes and assaults have spiked in the couple of weeks since the referendum; Britain has had a tense relationship with race-related crime for the last few decades (remember the skinheads? Neo-Nazis?)

No, I don’t remember any neo-nazis or skinheads.

I *do* however remember the 2011 London riots, where 3443 crimes were recorded in London in a one-week period. This total included hundreds of race-hate crimes targeting London’s white-skinned minority.

Just out of interest, was that a “catastrophe”?

Fluffy 6:17 pm 06 Jul 16
Mysteryman 4:29 pm 06 Jul 16

Mysteryman said :

Nilrem said :

creative_canberran said :

I’m laughing out loud as I read this…
“the outcomes have been catastrophic” – er, what, like a few journos have written a few excitable articles?

“The political fabric in England has broken down” – er, like a couple of politicians have resigned. They haven’t exactly executed their monarch, dissolved Parliament and appointed a Dictator, have they…

… “There are huge numbers of people living in Britain who now fear they will be asked to leave.”
Well, gee whiz – people who are living in somebody else’s country have to obtain permission from that country to do so, what a revolutionary idea.

Firstly, the outcomes have been catastrophic. Race-related crimes and assaults have spiked in the couple of weeks since the referendum; Britain has had a tense relationship with race-related crime for the last few decades (remember the skinheads? Neo-Nazis?) and the result meant that some saw it as an opportunity to rail against those from other countries. That’s a problem. It’s a social and political problem that does not have an easy solution, even if the cause is obvious.

Have you got any evidence of this spike, and how large it actually is? I’m curious if numbers have been released, or if people are just relying on the newspaper headlines which may as well be anecdotal evidence. Either way, I wouldn’t call it catastrophic unless we’re now changing the meaning of *that* word, too.

Looking at London: “Commander Mak Chishty, who leads on community engagement for the Met, said: “We can report there has been an increase in hate crime offences since the UK EU referendum.”” The Guardian reported this: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jul/05/met-police-received-230-reports-of-hate-crimes-after-brexit-vote

And if there is an issue severe enough that the retiring Prime Minister needs to make a public statement, then I think we can safely assume that the result had an impact on race-related crime. I don’t think that it’s the kind of thing that would be fabricated, but then I am white and have never been vilified because of my skin colour or racial background, so why would I assume any of this is real?

Going by the dictionary definition of “a sudden and widespread disaster; any misfortune, mishap, or failure; fiasco”, I would say that’s pretty close. Closer than it should be, at any rate; referendum or no, there is no excused for hate crime and certainly reason to be concerned at any spike in figures.

“The Met, which is Britain’s largest force, usually averages between 20 and 50 reports of hate crime a day. On Sunday 26 June it received 62 reports and the following Tuesday it had 64.”

It’s disappointing that there’s an increase, and any increase is concerning, as you pointed out. But it’s clearly not catastrophic. It’s being sensationalised and exaggerated by people who have a point to make about the result of the vote.

People being murdered in the streets? Catastrophic. Non-English people being rounded up by vigilante mobs? Catastrophic. Rioters ravaging the city? Catastrophic. The total collapse of the British economy and the loss of millions of jobs? Catastrophic.

A spike in reports of hate-crimes over a week? Not catastrophic.

devils_advocate 4:15 pm 06 Jul 16

Mysteryman said :

Going by the dictionary definition of “a sudden and widespread disaster; any misfortune, mishap, or failure; fiasco”, I would say that’s pretty close. Closer than it should be, at any rate; referendum or no, there is no excused for hate crime and certainly reason to be concerned at any spike in figures.

To form an opinion, you’d need to compare that to the number of Taharrush gamea attacks that are going on throughout Europe, and form a view as to whether it has resulted/is likely to result in a net increase in violence.

madelini 2:21 pm 06 Jul 16

Nilrem said :

creative_canberran said :

I’m laughing out loud as I read this…
“the outcomes have been catastrophic” – er, what, like a few journos have written a few excitable articles?

“The political fabric in England has broken down” – er, like a couple of politicians have resigned. They haven’t exactly executed their monarch, dissolved Parliament and appointed a Dictator, have they…

… “There are huge numbers of people living in Britain who now fear they will be asked to leave.”
Well, gee whiz – people who are living in somebody else’s country have to obtain permission from that country to do so, what a revolutionary idea.

Firstly, the outcomes have been catastrophic. Race-related crimes and assaults have spiked in the couple of weeks since the referendum; Britain has had a tense relationship with race-related crime for the last few decades (remember the skinheads? Neo-Nazis?) and the result meant that some saw it as an opportunity to rail against those from other countries. That’s a problem. It’s a social and political problem that does not have an easy solution, even if the cause is obvious.

Have you got any evidence of this spike, and how large it actually is? I’m curious if numbers have been released, or if people are just relying on the newspaper headlines which may as well be anecdotal evidence. Either way, I wouldn’t call it catastrophic unless we’re now changing the meaning of *that* word, too.

Looking at London: “Commander Mak Chishty, who leads on community engagement for the Met, said: “We can report there has been an increase in hate crime offences since the UK EU referendum.”” The Guardian reported this: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jul/05/met-police-received-230-reports-of-hate-crimes-after-brexit-vote

And if there is an issue severe enough that the retiring Prime Minister needs to make a public statement, then I think we can safely assume that the result had an impact on race-related crime. I don’t think that it’s the kind of thing that would be fabricated, but then I am white and have never been vilified because of my skin colour or racial background, so why would I assume any of this is real?

Going by the dictionary definition of “a sudden and widespread disaster; any misfortune, mishap, or failure; fiasco”, I would say that’s pretty close. Closer than it should be, at any rate; referendum or no, there is no excused for hate crime and certainly reason to be concerned at any spike in figures.

devils_advocate 2:04 pm 06 Jul 16

Nilrem said :

Have you got any evidence of this spike, and how large it actually is? I’m curious if numbers have been released, or if people are just relying on the newspaper headlines which may as well be anecdotal evidence. Either way, I wouldn’t call it catastrophic unless we’re now changing the meaning of *that* word, too.

We would also need to know the counterfactual. Unrestricted immigration can also lead to violence and sexual assaults, for example New Year’s Eve in Germany. In the absence of a Brexit, it could have been worse.

CaptainSpiff 12:45 pm 06 Jul 16

This sort of emotional reaction to Brexit is quite childish. There are European countries that are outside of the EU and doing just fine. Leaving the EU will cause some temporary disturbance and uncertainty, but are you seriously saying the UK will be unable to thrive unless it is part of the EU?

If you think so, why not assemble some rational arguments, rather than overwrought emotional hand wringing.

The histrionic reaction among the left to this vote, is actually more concerning than the result of the vote itself. Does being a leftie mean that one is wholeheartedly committed to giant bureaucratic projects like the EU?

Mysteryman 12:16 pm 06 Jul 16

creative_canberran said :

I’m laughing out loud as I read this…
“the outcomes have been catastrophic” – er, what, like a few journos have written a few excitable articles?

“The political fabric in England has broken down” – er, like a couple of politicians have resigned. They haven’t exactly executed their monarch, dissolved Parliament and appointed a Dictator, have they…

… “There are huge numbers of people living in Britain who now fear they will be asked to leave.”
Well, gee whiz – people who are living in somebody else’s country have to obtain permission from that country to do so, what a revolutionary idea.

Firstly, the outcomes have been catastrophic. Race-related crimes and assaults have spiked in the couple of weeks since the referendum; Britain has had a tense relationship with race-related crime for the last few decades (remember the skinheads? Neo-Nazis?) and the result meant that some saw it as an opportunity to rail against those from other countries. That’s a problem. It’s a social and political problem that does not have an easy solution, even if the cause is obvious.

Have you got any evidence of this spike, and how large it actually is? I’m curious if numbers have been released, or if people are just relying on the newspaper headlines which may as well be anecdotal evidence. Either way, I wouldn’t call it catastrophic unless we’re now changing the meaning of *that* word, too.

Mordd 11:51 am 06 Jul 16

gooterz said :

Masquara said :

I see getting out as basically returning to self-determination. I can’t see how the EU was of much benefit to most Britons (other than the City (i.e. financial sector), who have always had a very inflated sense of their own self-importance and entitlement).

Is this the argument that should be used in the push for Australia to become a republic?

The UK will have to renegotiate all of their trade deals, including with those outside of the EU. They don’t have much of an industry; the supermarkets are filled with imported goods. They stand to enter another recession, when they have barely recovered from the last one – although it seems that a lot of people have forgotten how it was when 1000 people a week were losing their jobs in 2008 and 2009.

Still, it’s done now. Once Article 50 is enabled, there will be no turning back. I just hope for their sake, they have a leader who can see them through and deliver on the promises made during the campaign.

Just going to leave this here for those that missed it on social media: http://www.brokennews.com.au/2016/06/24/australia-leave-au-stralia/

madelini 10:46 am 06 Jul 16

Masquara said :

I see getting out as basically returning to self-determination. I can’t see how the EU was of much benefit to most Britons (other than the City (i.e. financial sector), who have always had a very inflated sense of their own self-importance and entitlement).

Is this the argument that should be used in the push for Australia to become a republic?

The UK will have to renegotiate all of their trade deals, including with those outside of the EU. They don’t have much of an industry; the supermarkets are filled with imported goods. They stand to enter another recession, when they have barely recovered from the last one – although it seems that a lot of people have forgotten how it was when 1000 people a week were losing their jobs in 2008 and 2009.

Still, it’s done now. Once Article 50 is enabled, there will be no turning back. I just hope for their sake, they have a leader who can see them through and deliver on the promises made during the campaign.

madelini 10:39 am 06 Jul 16

creative_canberran said :

I’m laughing out loud as I read this…
“the outcomes have been catastrophic” – er, what, like a few journos have written a few excitable articles?

“The political fabric in England has broken down” – er, like a couple of politicians have resigned. They haven’t exactly executed their monarch, dissolved Parliament and appointed a Dictator, have they…

… “There are huge numbers of people living in Britain who now fear they will be asked to leave.”
Well, gee whiz – people who are living in somebody else’s country have to obtain permission from that country to do so, what a revolutionary idea.

Firstly, the outcomes have been catastrophic. Race-related crimes and assaults have spiked in the couple of weeks since the referendum; Britain has had a tense relationship with race-related crime for the last few decades (remember the skinheads? Neo-Nazis?) and the result meant that some saw it as an opportunity to rail against those from other countries. That’s a problem. It’s a social and political problem that does not have an easy solution, even if the cause is obvious.

Also, your assumption that the people from other countries do not have permission to live there is naive and shortsighted. The open border policy amongst EU members, there was a reciprocal arrangement that gave permission for nationals to live and work in any other member country. People legally moved for various reasons including job opportunities or personal relationships. Those people are the ones who are worried that they will have to abandon the country that they call home. Don’t thrust your narrow Australian views on these people when you have no idea what the implications are, given that you don’t live there.

Also, you mentioned the “various nations of Scandinavia” – Denmark and Sweden are both members of the EU. It’s presumptive to assume that Britain will receive the same agreements as Norway, when Norway elected not to join, rather than to join and then leave. Leaving is seen as a selfish decision, which it is.

switch 8:44 am 06 Jul 16

creative_canberran said :

How awful for them – just imagine living under the cloud of potentially having to return home to live among their fellow-whingeing poms…

Well, you have to admit that would be pretty frightening.

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