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Canberra set for Hotter Summers with more Severe Fire Weather days

By Canfan - 8 December 2014 103

The first detailed climate change projections for the ACT show the territory can expect hotter summers, warmer winters, drier springs and an increase in the number of days with severe fire weather, Minister for the Environment, Simon Corbell, said.

New climate change projections funded by the ACT and NSW governments and produced by the UNSW Climate Change Research Centre provide an unparalleled level of detail that will inform and drive actions to reduce the ACT’s vulnerability to climate change.

“The best minds in the field of climate change science were brought together as part of the NSW and ACT Regional Climate Modelling project to deliver these projections using the most advanced projection techniques,” Mr Corbell said.

“The ACT Government is proud to have worked with the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage and climate modellers at the University of NSW Climate Change Research Centre to deliver this world-leading research project.”

The NSW and ACT Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) research provides information down to the nearest 10 km, providing the finest detail yet of near future (2030) and far future (2070) climate projections.

The projections indicate that if the world continues warming at its current rate the ACT will warm by about 0.7oC during the near future (2020–2039), increasing to about 2 oC in the far future (2060–2079) with the number of hot days expected to increase.

The projections show up to five extra days above 35oC in the territory by 2030 and up to 20 extra days above that mark by 2070.

Rainfall in the ACT is projected to decrease in spring and increase in summer and autumn contributing to an increase in average fire weather in spring, summer and winter as well as an increase in the number of severe fire weather days in summer and spring.

“The NARCliM projections will inform planning for our emergency and health services and ensure our actions will maintain our city’s liveability by providing a built environment with amenity, green space, shade and shelter,” Mr Corbell said.

“The projections will help us to better care for those most vulnerable in our community and to protect and manage our natural environment such as our nationally significant woodland communities.”
The projections also show a reduction in the number of cold nights, with the territory expected to dip below 2 oC an average of 13 fewer times each year by 2030 and 43 fewer times each year by 2070.

“I commend the University of NSW for their work on these projections and look forward to continued collaboration as the challenges we face do not stop at the border and require a coordinated strategic approach to resolve,” Mr Corbell said.

“These projections highlight the need for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions locally as part of a global effort. That is why the ACT is committed to its target of 90% renewable energy by 2020 as part of a 40% reduction in carbon emissions.”

(Simon Corbell Media Release)

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103 Responses to
Canberra set for Hotter Summers with more Severe Fire Weather days
HiddenDragon 6:35 pm 26 Feb 16

Whether future summers are similar to, or more severe than, the present and the past, it’s reassuring to know that we will have ‘climate-wise’ buildings to cope with torrid conditions –

http://www.cmd.act.gov.au/open_government/inform/act_government_media_releases/corbell/2016/consultation-on-strategy-to-help-canberrans-adapt-to-climate-change

Presumably these buildings will have even higher energy efficiency ratings than so many of the recently constructed apartment buildings which, in spite of dazzlingly impressive EERs, still seem to require one or more split system air-conditioning units to make them tolerable.

bobzed57 6:19 pm 26 Feb 16

I think the UN manufactured calamity du jour – climate change – has run its course and should be consigned to the dust bin along. Time for a new calamity. As an aside, UN Agenda 21 is getting a bit of thrashing in Canberra as evidence by the plan to have 9,000,000 people living on Northbourne Ave. It’s desperate times for the UN struggling for relevance and hoping to be the world government. Donning tin foil hat right now I am.

wildturkeycanoe 5:04 pm 26 Feb 16

If we look at “data” from the last few thousand years, the trend has been that it is getting warmer. Now all of a sudden, the warming trend is something horrifying that we must act upon. Does the back end of an ice age mean anything to these climatologists?

dungfungus 4:47 pm 26 Feb 16

HenryBG said :

dungfungus said :

The dire predictions made in 2014 have not materialised.

What dire predictions?
Please give us a specific quote or link so we can check whether you are inventing “failed predictions” once again, as you have been caught out doing before.

dungfungus said :

There have been a few hot days and to emphasise this the BOM is now selecting the “hottest days early in the month” and the “hottest days so far this summer” etc.
Yesterday, we had 37.5C which was the “hottest latest day in a February month” so far recorded.
This has not eclipsed the hottest day recorded in March 1998 which was also 37.5C.
The all time record high (BOM records) was 42.2C on 1st February, 1968. That’s almost 50 years ago.
Talk about looking for the fifth leg on the cat.

The BoM keeps a myriad of statistics. Just like Cricket stats, there are numbers for everything, and those of us who like numbers, and those of us whose world-view isn’t so challenged by the facts that we have to deny the data, quite enjoy the myriad stats that are avilable.

Here are some of the basic ones:
Here is a trend map for temperature:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=trend-maps
As you can see, the trend shows it is getting hotter.

Here is the trend for rainfall:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=trend-maps&tQ%5Bmap%5D=rain&tQ%5Barea%5D=aus&tQ%5Bseason%5D=0112&tQ%5Bperiod%5D=1970
As you can see, the trend shows rainfall is decreasing.

Here is the trend in pan evaporation:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=trend-maps&tQ%5Bmap%5D=evap&tQ%5Barea%5D=aus&tQ%5Bseason%5D=0112&tQ%5Bperiod%5D=1970
As you can see, the trend shows it is getting drier.

Now – if we contrast
– the understanding you have gained from your selection of a very small number of individual data points (eg, record temperature in 1968), with
– the understanding that can be gained from viewing the *whole* picture,
we can see that your understanding conflicts with the statements by the BoM.

Given that all the examples I gave are factual and are easily obtainable from BOM records, I don’t know why you have gone off on the tangent you have chosen but the dire predictions are in the headline of the article subject of the thread if you would care to read it again.
I really shouldn’t have to explain past that point but you are doing exactly what the BOM is doing by “over analysing” the weather data. I mean, what is reason the BOM is now grading days of the month as part of their temperature reporting?
No wonder they can’t get it right – there was a shower forecast today along with many other days so far this year but it’s hard to spot a cloud let alone a raindrop.

John Moulis 4:20 pm 26 Feb 16

OMG, here we go again. For the record, this summer has been the first for more than ten years where there have been *no* days over 40 degrees.

IdlePeasant 12:54 pm 26 Feb 16

Good lord, can we have a weather thread without the industry shills getting on their pedestals? Human induced climate change is undisputed within the scientific community and is widely acknowledged as incontrovertible. Even oil/gas companies admitted (internally) their activities were negativity affecting the climate as early as the 1980’s….

rosscoact 12:43 pm 26 Feb 16

LOL, I love climate deniers. Bless you and thanks for the laughs.

tuco 12:20 pm 26 Feb 16

we can see that your understanding conflicts with the statements by the BoM…..

tish tosh. Surely being louder and more strident counts for something. I mean, anyone can do anything quietly with facts. The real arguments are FRANTIC MAN!

HenryBG 11:56 am 26 Feb 16

wildturkeycanoe said :

If these long term predictions are anything like the long, hot summer we are experiencing right now [cough, cough] I am not at all surprised by the current government’s denial of climate change. Predicting tomorrow is just as inaccurate as predicting next year, judging by current data.

Actually, it’s not.

Somebody with more statistical knowledge than I might explain this better, but here is a basic illustration:
You are told there are 5 people in a room and to guess their individual heights.
You are told there are 5,000,000 people in a room and to guess their individual heights.

A quick google will give you a frequency distribution for the height of Australians. You fit your 5,000,000 data points to that frequency distribution and you will most likely correctly identify the frequency distribution inside the room.
Fitting the frequency distribution to the 5 people, on the other hand, means you will have very large margins of error.

Similarly, weather is quite different from climate.

They haven’t figured out how to correctly predict the time and extent of El Nino events though, which has a large influence on our weather and affects our visibility of the climate in the short term.

Here’s the thing though – if you graphically illustrate the El Nino/La Nina years within an annual temperature anomaly graph, you can much better see the (very large) El Nino variability around the steady warming trend:
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/detection-images/2015_gistemp_graph.png

HenryBG 11:43 am 26 Feb 16

dungfungus said :

The dire predictions made in 2014 have not materialised.

What dire predictions?
Please give us a specific quote or link so we can check whether you are inventing “failed predictions” once again, as you have been caught out doing before.

dungfungus said :

There have been a few hot days and to emphasise this the BOM is now selecting the “hottest days early in the month” and the “hottest days so far this summer” etc.
Yesterday, we had 37.5C which was the “hottest latest day in a February month” so far recorded.
This has not eclipsed the hottest day recorded in March 1998 which was also 37.5C.
The all time record high (BOM records) was 42.2C on 1st February, 1968. That’s almost 50 years ago.
Talk about looking for the fifth leg on the cat.

The BoM keeps a myriad of statistics. Just like Cricket stats, there are numbers for everything, and those of us who like numbers, and those of us whose world-view isn’t so challenged by the facts that we have to deny the data, quite enjoy the myriad stats that are avilable.

Here are some of the basic ones:
Here is a trend map for temperature:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=trend-maps
As you can see, the trend shows it is getting hotter.

Here is the trend for rainfall:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=trend-maps&tQ%5Bmap%5D=rain&tQ%5Barea%5D=aus&tQ%5Bseason%5D=0112&tQ%5Bperiod%5D=1970
As you can see, the trend shows rainfall is decreasing.

Here is the trend in pan evaporation:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=trend-maps&tQ%5Bmap%5D=evap&tQ%5Barea%5D=aus&tQ%5Bseason%5D=0112&tQ%5Bperiod%5D=1970
As you can see, the trend shows it is getting drier.

Now – if we contrast
– the understanding you have gained from your selection of a very small number of individual data points (eg, record temperature in 1968), with
– the understanding that can be gained from viewing the *whole* picture,
we can see that your understanding conflicts with the statements by the BoM.

dungfungus 8:30 am 26 Feb 16

The dire predictions made in 2014 have not materialised.
There have been a few hot days and to emphasise this the BOM is now selecting the “hottest days early in the month” and the “hottest days so far this summer” etc.
Yesterday, we had 37.5C which was the “hottest latest day in a February month” so far recorded.
This has not eclipsed the hottest day recorded in March 1998 which was also 37.5C.
The all time record high (BOM records) was 42.2C on 1st February, 1968. That’s almost 50 years ago.
Talk about looking for the fifth leg on the cat.

wildturkeycanoe 6:56 am 10 Dec 14

If these long term predictions are anything like the long, hot summer we are experiencing right now [cough, cough] I am not at all surprised by the current government’s denial of climate change. Predicting tomorrow is just as inaccurate as predicting next year, judging by current data.

How_Canberran 6:58 pm 09 Dec 14

MERC600 said :

Hells bells,, Corbs is telling us weather predictions of what may be happening in 2079.. some 65 years away.
Geez are these the same people doing Mr Corbells tram predictions.

But if we were to open our wallets today, we could make a sizable impact upon these predictions of climate doom and gloom!

How Canberran

dungfungus 6:11 pm 09 Dec 14

Are we going to compensated for all the stress that will shorten our lives when none of these crazy predictions materialise?

MERC600 3:28 pm 09 Dec 14

Hells bells,, Corbs is telling us weather predictions of what may be happening in 2079.. some 65 years away.
Geez are these the same people doing Mr Corbells tram predictions.

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