Democracy Canberra Style

johnboy 18 October 2012 64

canberra times cover

Why bother with even having our one lousy vote every four years when the Canberra Times can just tell us how it’s going to be?

At least Noel Towell managed to look at the camera. That’s something.

Oh what the hell let’s laugh at the little Korean man without realising he’s trying to mock the delusions of power.


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pepmeup pepmeup 6:52 pm 21 Oct 12

pepmeup said :

It is likley Labor will hold power with the help of the greens but I still think the libs are a chance of 3 in brindy and Molonglo, Making final numbers

libs 8
alp 7
greens 2

and I still think an upset could be on the cards in Gindy with Chic pulling off a massive upset.

but i guess we will all know soon enough

Still pretty happy with that prediction but time will tell

chewy14 chewy14 8:16 am 20 Oct 12

WillowJim said :

Thumper said :

So a day out from the election the CT admits that yes, it has been barracking for the ALP the whole time.

Have you never read a newspaper? Because every newspaper in this country editorialises on the eve of an election. I imagine some people here would have lambasted the newspaper as gutless if it hadn’t published an election editorial.

I was unsurprised by the editorial, though I don’t get why it ignored the Greens. They did win a large enough chunk of the vote to affect how this city is run.

It’s also a little odd that RA takes the stance that it would never publish the results of a poll, lest by doing so it might affect its readers’ decisions.

Yes newspapers editorialise before an election, they’re also meant to present the news, its right there in the name.

If you’ve read the CT during this election campaign, you would be a dunce if you didn’t realise their election ‘news’ seemed to be supporting the ALPs reelection.

Thumper Thumper 10:44 pm 19 Oct 12

WillowJim said :

Thumper said :

So a day out from the election the CT admits that yes, it has been barracking for the ALP the whole time.

Have you never read a newspaper? Because every newspaper in this country editorialises on the eve of an election. I imagine some people here would have lambasted the newspaper as gutless if it hadn’t published an election editorial.

I was unsurprised by the editorial, though I don’t get why it ignored the Greens. They did win a large enough chunk of the vote to affect how this city is run.

It’s also a little odd that RA takes the stance that it would never publish the results of a poll, lest by doing so it might affect its readers’ decisions.

Read a newspaper?

Well, no, fuck me! I haven’t!

WillowJim WillowJim 9:44 pm 19 Oct 12

Thumper said :

So a day out from the election the CT admits that yes, it has been barracking for the ALP the whole time.

Have you never read a newspaper? Because every newspaper in this country editorialises on the eve of an election. I imagine some people here would have lambasted the newspaper as gutless if it hadn’t published an election editorial.

I was unsurprised by the editorial, though I don’t get why it ignored the Greens. They did win a large enough chunk of the vote to affect how this city is run.

It’s also a little odd that RA takes the stance that it would never publish the results of a poll, lest by doing so it might affect its readers’ decisions.

housebound housebound 4:28 pm 19 Oct 12

Thumper said :

PantsMan said :

From the Canberra Times today:

We support the re-election of her government.

Link: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/editorial/tarnished-labor-still-more-reliable-20121018-27u6b.html

So a day out from the election the CT admits that yes, it has been barracking for the ALP the whole time.

And it makes our candidates look religious with headlines like this: Pollies hit town on mass for election eve

Tetranitrate Tetranitrate 4:05 pm 19 Oct 12

c_c said :

I’ve yet to here her say one thing about Canberra itself, it’s all about her. She has an ego that makes me long for the days of Kate Carnell by comparison.

I get the feeling from your posts that you were probably still in Primary school when Carnell resigned as Chief Minister.

DrKoresh said :

PantsMan said :

I really don’t think a phone poll is particularly accurate in Canberra. Soooooo many households do not have a fixed line phone, and the transient population might mix things up a bit.

Also, the 8-10 per cent lead is the danger zone for protest votes. People believe that there is enough of a margin to put the boot in.

It’s nice to know that The Crimes has done the thinking for me though. Can they just hurry up and go bankrupt.

I doubt transients and people without fixed phones are generally the type of people to vote Liberal though, just saying.

Agreed but I think the larger issue is the statistical significance of the result rather than any possible sampling bias. I haven’t seen it for this time around, but the poll the CT did last time had a normal looking confidence interval, with a significance of 70% (!!!!!!).

Thumper Thumper 3:01 pm 19 Oct 12

PantsMan said :

From the Canberra Times today:

We support the re-election of her government.

Link: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/editorial/tarnished-labor-still-more-reliable-20121018-27u6b.html

So a day out from the election the CT admits that yes, it has been barracking for the ALP the whole time.

c_c c_c 2:56 pm 19 Oct 12

Thumper said :

Having said that, surely after this loss it is time for a broom to be swept through the party?

Agreed. Elizabeth Lee is exactly the kind of candidate that they need more of – in fact they should make her leader.

You’re joking surely. Elizabeth Lee is exactly the type of person who should never get into the Assembly.

This is her reason for running: ”I’d been involved in legal politics for a while… it wasn’t a single issue for me, but I’ve always enjoyed doing this sort of work.”

You don’t run for politics because you want to benefit, you don’t run because it’s another box to tick on your ego trip. You run because you see things you want to improve and people you want to help and feel you can do something about it.

I’ve yet to here her say one thing about Canberra itself, it’s all about her. She has an ego that makes me long for the days of Kate Carnell by comparison.

caf caf 2:34 pm 19 Oct 12

Thumper said :

The libs will lose. No doubt about this given the Greens backing. Nine seats is one beyond what they could hope for in their wildest dreams.

That’s not entirely true. Ginninderra and Brindabella have both delivered 3 seats to the conservative side of politics in the past, and 3 seats ought not to be a challenge for the Liberals in Molonglo, so 9 is well within the bounds of possibility if the political winds (and the candidates) are right.

Thumper said :

Having said that, surely after this loss it is time for a broom to be swept through the party?

Agreed. Elizabeth Lee is exactly the kind of candidate that they need more of – in fact they should make her leader.

DrKoresh DrKoresh 1:58 pm 19 Oct 12

PantsMan said :

I really don’t think a phone poll is particularly accurate in Canberra. Soooooo many households do not have a fixed line phone, and the transient population might mix things up a bit.

Also, the 8-10 per cent lead is the danger zone for protest votes. People believe that there is enough of a margin to put the boot in.

It’s nice to know that The Crimes has done the thinking for me though. Can they just hurry up and go bankrupt.

I doubt transients and people without fixed phones are generally the type of people to vote Liberal though, just saying.

PantsMan PantsMan 12:54 pm 19 Oct 12

From the Canberra Times today:

We support the re-election of her government.

Link: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/editorial/tarnished-labor-still-more-reliable-20121018-27u6b.html

Tetranitrate Tetranitrate 12:36 pm 19 Oct 12

jimbocool said :

@tetranitrate, actually the Libs did much better in 2004 than 2008. In 2004 they polled 34.8% and won 7 seats. In 2008 they polled 31.6% and won only 6 seats.

Re-read what I wrote.
I’m putting forward the opinion that the worst the libs will do is something near the 2004 result, ala 2/2/3 seats. I’m very well aware that they did better in 2004 than 2008.

colourful sydney racing identity colourful sydney racing identity 12:10 pm 19 Oct 12

PantsMan said :

Battlecat said :

I have a theory that Australians vote like they bet, with who they think will win, rather than who they want to win. Nobody wants to have voted for the loser. Therefore polls become self fulfilling.

Yep, and that’s why the CT’s behaviour is so shocking.

1998 election had a very pro Carnell Canberra times. The editorial on Election Day pretty much stated ‘we would not normally tell our readers how to vote, but, we would be letting down the community if we did not tell our readers to vote liberal’

chewy14 chewy14 11:12 am 19 Oct 12

c_c said :

Matt_Watts said :

c_c said :

On the new tonight, Zed looked beaten. You could just see he knows he’s finished. I’m even going to make a prediction that he may not even keep his seat.

I’ll make a prediction that he’ll not win in Molonglo again because he isn’t running there, and that he will win the seat he is contesting in Brindabella.

You well know what I meant. He won’t keep his seat in the chamber, regardless of what electorate that seat is attached to.

How much do you want to bet on it?

colourful sydney racing identity said :

I would back a bookie over a poll any day, iasbet are paying $1.15 on the next chief minister being from the ALP, they also are paying $1.80 for ALP to win seven seats – stay away from the cm market but get down on the 7 seats for Labor, great value and probably worth breaking into the kids piggy banks for

Giddy up.
I think I’ll take some of the 6 seats at $2.5.

PantsMan PantsMan 10:57 am 19 Oct 12

Battlecat said :

I have a theory that Australians vote like they bet, with who they think will win, rather than who they want to win. Nobody wants to have voted for the loser. Therefore polls become self fulfilling.

Yep, and that’s why the CT’s behaviour is so shocking.

jimbocool jimbocool 10:57 am 19 Oct 12

@tetranitrate, actually the Libs did much better in 2004 than 2008. In 2004 they polled 34.8% and won 7 seats. In 2008 they polled 31.6% and won only 6 seats.

Worth going over to pollbludger as Caf suggests for some anlaysis of the polling data that is far superior to what the CT can manage. On their analysis it they claim it is possible for the ALP to win 10 seats on that polling. To do that they would need to win 4 in Molonglo, which they came very close to doing in 2004 (only an unfortunatel split in primary votes between Barr and Hettinger allowed Seselja to sneak in through the middle). Since the Green primary vote is down in Ginninderra and Brindabella, third seats for the ALP are in play in both those electorates.

Battlecat Battlecat 10:34 am 19 Oct 12

I have a theory that Australians vote like they bet, with who they think will win, rather than who they want to win. Nobody wants to have voted for the loser. Therefore polls become self fulfilling.

Tetranitrate Tetranitrate 10:17 am 19 Oct 12

c_c said :

Matt_Watts said :

c_c said :

On the new tonight, Zed looked beaten. You could just see he knows he’s finished. I’m even going to make a prediction that he may not even keep his seat.

I’ll make a prediction that he’ll not win in Molonglo again because he isn’t running there, and that he will win the seat he is contesting in Brindabella.

You well know what I meant. He won’t keep his seat in the chamber, regardless of what electorate that seat is attached to.

I severely doubt it. There’s absolutely no reason why the Liberals would do any worse this time than last time, in all likelihood the worst they could do seat wise would be to repeat the 2004 result.
In 2008 they’d just come out of a period of constant infighting with a sitting (formerly) liberal MLA running as an independent.
For Zed not to be re-elected the libs would either need to elect less than 2 in Brindabella (utter fantasy) or he’d need to be pushed out by another candidate, which could only be Val Jeffery. I really don’t buy it given last time he pulled 1.5 quotas (in molonglo).

Simon Corbel has way more to worry about than he does, as does Amanda Bresnan and Caroline Le Couteur.

dpm dpm 9:34 am 19 Oct 12

steveu said :

…On a side note, I don’t recall seeing a government in power that as been in power for so long have such trouble just stating its achievements over the last decade – this wouldn’t be hard would it? There seems to be a lot of promises coming out, and not a lot of achievements in their campaign.

Hahaha! Yes, most of the Labor policies are odd for a party that has been in power so long. You’d expect they’d just be tidying up a bit and focussing on efficiency by now. But instead there are a lot of large ‘reforms’! You have to wonder what they have been doing. It’s a bit concerning! 🙂
On the plus side for them, I actually quite like Katy and think she works and tries v. hard. No probs with her really.

As for the Libs, I think they have come up with quite a few good ideas in this campaign – and ones that address many of my pet peeves in Canberra. For example,
*) a review of the justice system/courts (I hate how it is running ATM, but not sure if the review would lead to positive changes..)
*) Gp-led clinics instead of nurse-led (While the nurse one(s) are good, I honestly don’t think you will achieve reductions to presentations at ED with that model. My opinion…)
*) Green bins (I feel bad as it would probably stuff up trash pak operators, but on the other hand, almost every other council seems to have them?)
However, their policy announcements have been fairly minimal (and not all costed or fully explained. e.g how are you going to add 6 more beds to a ward that is physically already full? Remove nurse tea rooms? Squeeze more beds into rooms?), and some of the others are just the reverse of their opposition (e.g. reverse the plastic bag rules!). Which leads me to my other problem: they have run quite a negative campaign which I am against (e.g triple your rates etc). If they had their time again, i’d like to think they’d have attacked this election differently.
I have to say, I haven’t looked too closely at the Greens, but might do that today.

And finally, overall, while we are not ‘just a council’ (as we do have hospitals, schools, law/gaols etc to manage too), I still think we should be focusing more on getting services and planning right for the community, rather than the pie-in-the-sky ‘ideals’ they seem to spend half their time debating in the LA. At the end of the day, a lot of that stuff is for Federal Govt (or not for Govt at all!), and most should be prioritized lower while they get basic services competent and efficient. *Then* they can spend their time navel gazing about ‘ideals’…! Basically, I’d like to see whoever wins instigate *all* their election promises first, then move on to the fluff (most of which they put up knowing that it won’t get up – they just want to have their 10 mins of fame). 🙂
Anyway, I still haven’t decided who to vote for……! Hahahaha!

Thumper Thumper 8:26 am 19 Oct 12

zippyzippy said :

Thumper said :

So according the CT it’s this;

ALP 9
Green 5
Lib 4

No, it says Alp 7, Lib 6, green 4.

I was working on the CT’s 54/26% split.

Which logically gives 20% to the rest, which is pretty much the Greens.

See, it’s a joke.

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