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Election 2012. Anyone who says they know what’s going to happen is a liar

By johnboy - 20 October 2012 80

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Having been shocked by the Canberra Times calling this election on Thursday morning with data that seemed fantastical it has been heartening to see the actual results of real people voting come out close to my predictions.

The disintegration of the Green vote is the driving dynamic of this election and the Liberals have achieved more of their objectives than a Napoleon would hope for in any given battle.

It is not close to over, and Labor could very well still form government.

But with 70% of the vote counted at this time and no one seriously looking at second preferences anyone who says they know how this is going to pan out in the final washup is just a fraud.

Certain people who think their opinions are more valuable than that of the electorate should take note.

[Photo by ePi.Longo CC BY 2.0]

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80 Responses to
Election 2012. Anyone who says they know what’s going to happen is a liar
johnboy 10:28 am 21 Oct 12

caf said :

I’m not sure I’d call a drop from 16% to 11% a “disintegration” of the Greens vote. At the last election both Labor and Liberal went backwards to the benefit of Greens & others – the opposite has happened this time around, with both Labor and Liberal regaining ground.

These elections sure give good bang for the buck though – several sitting members looking like being replaced by members of their own side again (eg. Corbell and Doszpot).

My point is it is the extent to which the Greens decline that will determine this election. If their vote was another point down Zed would have been bathing in champagne last night. Another point firmer and we’d all be hearing how amazing Queen Katy the beloved is.

As it is, let’s wait and see how those ginninderra preferences flow.

Which is pretty much what a pundit worth listening to was saying in July.

Woody Mann-Caruso 10:06 am 21 Oct 12

For those who thought the CT poll was a crock – can I ask why?

On the face of it, they seemed to have a statistically representative sample (of the ACT, at least; perhaps they should have done the same for each electorate).

I could understand if you had an issue with their methodology (for example, you could point to an underlying, as-yet-undetected bias in their sampling).

But if the answer is ‘it flew in the face of I what I just know to be true’, then how did you know, exactly? (And why aren’t the bookies beating down your door to take advantage of your magical super powers?)

chewy14 9:42 am 21 Oct 12

Yep, I knew that CT poll was a crock of sh*t. I just wasn’t getting that feeling at all from people I’d talked to.
Interesting to see the exact layout of the assembly, hopefully the new faces can bring some intelligence to the LA.

chewy14 9:39 am 21 Oct 12

colourful sydney racing identity said :

Kiron2222 said :

HSR party killing the Greens makes me sadface 🙁

Does anyone know who was behind them and from where they received their funding?

What? Are you suggesting that they were CAG funded? Never. Hahaha.

caf 9:01 am 21 Oct 12

I’m not sure I’d call a drop from 16% to 11% a “disintegration” of the Greens vote. At the last election both Labor and Liberal went backwards to the benefit of Greens & others – the opposite has happened this time around, with both Labor and Liberal regaining ground.

These elections sure give good bang for the buck though – several sitting members looking like being replaced by members of their own side again (eg. Corbell and Doszpot).

colourful sydney rac 8:47 am 21 Oct 12

Kiron2222 said :

HSR party killing the Greens makes me sadface 🙁

Does anyone know who was behind them and from where they received their funding?

goggles13 8:33 am 21 Oct 12

the Crimes calling the election on Thursday shows the arrogance of the mainstream media – they think they can tell us how to think and know what we want.

is it any surprise that FTA tv stations and newspapers are not doing as well as they have in the past?

WillowJim 8:24 am 21 Oct 12

Kiron2222 said :

HSR party killing the Greens makes me sadface 🙁

We have a preferential voting system. So they did nothing of the sort.

WillowJim 8:10 am 21 Oct 12

A lot of assumptions in last night’s TV coverage, too; even by Antony Green. Almost everyone (excepting the leaders) needs preferences and we’ve not seen a glimpse of where the No.2 votes will flow.

All this talk of Berry over Bourke, Rattenbury over le Couteur, etc is ridiculously premature.

HenryBG 8:08 am 21 Oct 12

Holditz said :

I would suggest that Antony Green has a pretty good idea what will happen.

Yeah. He’s awesome. Getting a bit long in the tooth now though – I hope somebody’s training up a fresh-faced stats geek to be the new Anthony Green?

Kiron2222 said :

HSR party killing the Greens makes me sadface 🙁

The Greens killed themselves. I’d say 3 things caused this, and if they want to fix it, they should address these:

1/ Their response to the Canberra Hospital figure-fudging fraud was the polar opposite of what a 3rd-party should have provided. They demonstrated that they will not “keep the bastards honest” and that they would choose pragmatism over enforcing accountability.

2/ The 44% of Canberra families who send their children to non-government schools would be fully aware that Green education policies are aimed at severely disadvantaging their children’s schooling and would surely vote accordingly. This would ironically include the lentil-eating crystal-healers from Orana.

3/ Environment? What environment? The Greens just don’t seem to care anymore.

yoyo23 7:38 am 21 Oct 12

I’m just disappointed that it seems people did vote for the libs due to their really negative campaign. I hope that doesn’t give signals to the Federal level, but I worry that is the direction of politics now. Come on pollies, lift your game!

Kiron2222 2:19 am 21 Oct 12

HSR party killing the Greens makes me sadface 🙁

Holditz 12:46 am 21 Oct 12

I would suggest that Antony Green has a pretty good idea what will happen.

wildturkeycanoe 12:07 am 21 Oct 12

I doubt anyone will know for sure before 30 November who is steering the ship. Hare-Clark is just there to work out which way the 50c piece will fall.

lostinbias 11:39 pm 20 Oct 12

Imagine how awkies it’ll be for Sportsbet if the Libs form government……

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