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Election 2012. Anyone who says they know what’s going to happen is a liar

By johnboy - 20 October 2012 80

question mark

Having been shocked by the Canberra Times calling this election on Thursday morning with data that seemed fantastical it has been heartening to see the actual results of real people voting come out close to my predictions.

The disintegration of the Green vote is the driving dynamic of this election and the Liberals have achieved more of their objectives than a Napoleon would hope for in any given battle.

It is not close to over, and Labor could very well still form government.

But with 70% of the vote counted at this time and no one seriously looking at second preferences anyone who says they know how this is going to pan out in the final washup is just a fraud.

Certain people who think their opinions are more valuable than that of the electorate should take note.

[Photo by ePi.Longo CC BY 2.0]

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Election 2012. Anyone who says they know what’s going to happen is a liar
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housebound 7:26 pm 24 Oct 12

There’s been a few comments about how “The Greens killed themselves.”, such as:

HenryBG said :

1/ Their response to the Canberra Hospital figure-fudging fraud was the polar opposite of what a 3rd-party should have provided. They demonstrated that they will not “keep the bastards honest” and that they would choose pragmatism over enforcing accountability.

2/ The 44% of Canberra families who send their children to non-government schools would be fully aware that Green education policies are aimed at severely disadvantaging their children’s schooling and would surely vote accordingly. This would ironically include the lentil-eating crystal-healers from Orana.

3/ Environment? What environment? The Greens just don’t seem to care anymore.

or:

miz said :

I also think that the massive Greens vote last time was an indication of wanting a clear ‘third voice’. The general view out there is that the Greens did not give the people what they wanted because they caved. They are now seen as not only Claytons Labor, but even more annoying than Labor. Ergo, the Greens got punished this time around. Nothing to do with the Bullet Train, or anyone else.
If they really want to prove they are not Claytons Labor, let’s see them giving the people the change they are seeking. Here’s a hint: what would the result be if there were no Greens?

Dead right. Name your issue. Promising to re-open schools, then backflipping within days of the election (Barr was still trying to spruik school closures as a Good Thing on Saturday night). The hospital data scandal, and even Rattenbury’s role as Speaker in releasing selective extracts from the report of the Liberals timesheets scandal to the Canberra Times.

They’ve lost any claim to being on the ‘cross-bench’. They never were, and never will be while they are so closely tied to Labor.

If I had to pick one Green to be returned, it would be Le Couteur. She’s the nearest one of the bunch to be anything like the much-respected Kerry Tucker, or even the not-quite-so-good but still valuable Deb Foskey.

lemmem 8:29 pm 22 Oct 12

colourful sydney racing identity said :

chewy14 said :

colourful sydney racing identity said :

Kiron2222 said :

HSR party killing the Greens makes me sadface 🙁

Does anyone know who was behind them and from where they received their funding?

What? Are you suggesting that they were CAG funded? Never. Hahaha.

Not suggesting anything of the sort-just a question

Great to hear we are still a topic of conversation! Let me put a few rumours to bed and reintroduce ourselves:

1. We are not at all funded by CAG, would have been nice though.
2. As we said, we really are just a group of people who wanted HSR for Australia and decided to do something about it. The ACT election was a perfect platform to begin broadcasting our message.
3. We aren’t politically aligned one way or another, the personal beliefs of the executive cover the whole gamut of political ideology from left to right. However, we realised for something as visionary as HSR to become a reality, it was time for non-partisan politics.
4. The government’s report shaped our party’s objectives and goals. http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/rail/trains/high_speed/index.aspx
5. The money to fund our campaign literally came from ourselves and some VERY small donations.
6. Yes, we are going national as stated in Monday’s CT.
7. If you want to know more, visit our FB page. http://www.facebook.com/BulletTrainforCanberra
8. Yes, we believe we were the most entertaining party as well. Though we take HSR very seriously, we can and do make fun of ourselves!

Thanks

Michael Lemmey
Bullet Train for Canberra Party Secretary

bundah 7:28 pm 22 Oct 12

All this talk of monday has reminded me of ‘blue monday’

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2x9mfgUsIis

poetix 7:05 pm 22 Oct 12

c_c™ said :

Pork Hunt said :

poetix said :

Just another cheery Monday…

Nice work. Now I can’t get the Bangles song out of my head..

Probably a few MLAs sobered up this morning, listening to some Boomtown Rats too.

‘Now that ain%u2019t so neat to admit defeat…’. I’d forgotten that one.

c_c™ 6:49 pm 22 Oct 12

Pork Hunt said :

poetix said :

Just another cheery Monday…

Nice work. Now I can’t get the Bangles song out of my head..

Probably a few MLAs sobered up this morning, listening to some Boomtown Rats too.

Pork Hunt 6:44 pm 22 Oct 12

poetix said :

Just another cheery Monday…

Nice work. Now I can’t get the Bangles song out of my head..

c_c™ 6:35 pm 22 Oct 12

Safe to say The Greens have reached their peak and will now enter decline. Whether they can stem it before going the way of the Democrats is debatable. Certainly I think claims they were now a third force in politics are premature.

(On a side note, after bashing CT for their dodgy coverage, have to give some praise for the good effort Luke Dufficy at Win has done on coverage.)

Pork Hunt 6:28 pm 22 Oct 12

johnboy said :

a question mark in pond scum

I thought it was public art.

Phwoa 6:09 pm 22 Oct 12

PantsMan said :

Labor + Greens = no plastic bags.
Libs + Greens = no plastic bags.

Conclusion: situation hopeless.

+1
+2 for laying it out, real simple like.

watto23 1:42 pm 22 Oct 12

Beau Locks said :

rosscoact said :

Please, Please, Please let the Libs get in to govern in a minority government. This has so many upsides and no downsides as far as I can see.
1 A fresh government is the change we need.
2 The greens and labor will stop them from doing anything too stupid
3 We won’t have to put up with Zed doing an Abbott and whining like a consumptive tart about how ‘we wuz robbed’
4 We can have a term of Liberal mismanagement to make Labor look good

I reckon you might be on to something here, along with watto23 @ #51. My feeling (and I guess that’s all it is, along with most other punters here) is that the Libs got their result off the back of a scare campaign and probably that general feeling for a change of government that seems to happen every so often, regardless of the overall political leaning of the jurisdiction. Moving Zed to Brindabella probably helped, too. I don’t reckon it could have been a whole lot else. You could spit thru their policy platform, which contained nothing substantive on a raft of issues, and almost none of it properly costed.

I thought the dog act of the night was Zed beginning his speech over the top of Meredith’s, knowing that Aunty would switch coverage. This couldn’t possibly have been a mistake.

If I was boss of the world, or maybe just advising the two Greens, my feeling would be to let the Tories form government. But do so on the condition that they keep the rates reforms, which are incredibly sensible economic policy (if poorly sold and defended), and include a parliamentary agreement ensuring other parties get a go at chairing committees and have access to government officials for economic modelling etc, much like the current setup we’ve had for the last four years which has served all MLAs, Libs included, pretty well. Then let the more politically astute members of the ALP and the Greens keep the bastards honest for the next four years. If things get really tropical the ALP and Greens can simply form a new government. Having that in the back of Zed’s mind mightn’t be a bad thing.

Yeah I agree, happy for liberals to form governemtn here but at what cost to their policies. Lets face it, the greens could hold the libs over a barrel here. Also some irony of the statement that the public rejected the Labor-Greens alliance, yet they now need the greens to form government and clkearly the greens were rejected by the voters and not Labor.

Which policies will liberal support of the greens? I think the negativity of the liberal campaign will hurt negotiations. Personally I’m happy for Zed to have a go, he can’t do any worse, probably not do any better either. Probably only get a single term. I can’t see it happening though liberals would need to concede far too much to get the Greens to agree. Also labor and greens could still pass legislation in nthe ACT without liberals consent even with a liberal Chief Minister. Surprisingly greens and liberal have voted against labor some times as have labor and liberal voted against the greens.

stillflying 1:08 pm 22 Oct 12

“Mr Seselja said this morning that he would not rule out a re-think of his election pledge to repeal the Labor-Greens ban on plastic shopping bags”

I read this and immediately thought of Mr Gillespie on RA and laughed outloud in my office and had people staring at me. Is that sad?

poetix 12:37 pm 22 Oct 12

Just another cheery Monday…

poetix 12:33 pm 22 Oct 12

By the way, that is a beautiful image up the top. Seed on barren ground? Who killed Snugglepot?

Thumper 11:24 am 22 Oct 12

cmdwedge said :

Thumper said :

johnboy said :

WIN’s Luke Dufficy has tweeted a useful list of the ongoing tussles:

Hunter/Henry, Bresnan/Wall, Corbell/Fitzharris, Lee/Doszpot, Rattenbury/Le Couteur, Berry/Bourke

As much as it pains me to say this, I hope Corbell gets up. He doesn’t deserve to go out this way.

Agreed. I did a lot of volunteering for the Libs this time around, and I always make an effort to say hi to the candidates/MLAs from other parties. Corbell was a really decent bloke, happy to have a chat and joked around with me about giving him my first preference. I couldn’t say the same about Katy or Angie Drake – both nasty, arrogant and unpleasant to be around. Kula was especially nice – chatted with him for about half an hour and got along great. Didn’t meet Barr or Fitzharris, and Mathews was decent enough.

Yeah, from my dealings with Simon, albeit limited, he seems like a decent bloke.

Chop71 11:17 am 22 Oct 12

c_c said :

If the Greens and Labor had a sense of humour, they could elect Zed Chief Minister, but he’d have to lead a Labor-Green agenda.

Her ego won’t let that happen

c_c 11:01 am 22 Oct 12

Some people on Sunday were asking what Katy Gallagher meant when she said they were getting back to work after a break on Sunday morning. To clarify, members terms ended when the election was called, but the retain executive office until the new CM is in place. So technically she and the other ministers should be back at work.

There’s actually no rule that requires the Chief Minister to be from the party that holds government, that’s only a convention. If the Greens and Labor had a sense of humour, they could elect Zed Chief Minister, but he’d have to lead a Labor-Green agenda.

cmdwedge 11:00 am 22 Oct 12

Thumper said :

johnboy said :

WIN’s Luke Dufficy has tweeted a useful list of the ongoing tussles:

Hunter/Henry, Bresnan/Wall, Corbell/Fitzharris, Lee/Doszpot, Rattenbury/Le Couteur, Berry/Bourke

As much as it pains me to say this, I hope Corbell gets up. He doesn’t deserve to go out this way.

Agreed. I did a lot of volunteering for the Libs this time around, and I always make an effort to say hi to the candidates/MLAs from other parties. Corbell was a really decent bloke, happy to have a chat and joked around with me about giving him my first preference. I couldn’t say the same about Katy or Angie Drake – both nasty, arrogant and unpleasant to be around. Kula was especially nice – chatted with him for about half an hour and got along great. Didn’t meet Barr or Fitzharris, and Mathews was decent enough.

Beau Locks 10:45 am 22 Oct 12

rosscoact said :

Please, Please, Please let the Libs get in to govern in a minority government. This has so many upsides and no downsides as far as I can see.
1 A fresh government is the change we need.
2 The greens and labor will stop them from doing anything too stupid
3 We won’t have to put up with Zed doing an Abbott and whining like a consumptive tart about how ‘we wuz robbed’
4 We can have a term of Liberal mismanagement to make Labor look good

I reckon you might be on to something here, along with watto23 @ #51. My feeling (and I guess that’s all it is, along with most other punters here) is that the Libs got their result off the back of a scare campaign and probably that general feeling for a change of government that seems to happen every so often, regardless of the overall political leaning of the jurisdiction. Moving Zed to Brindabella probably helped, too. I don’t reckon it could have been a whole lot else. You could spit thru their policy platform, which contained nothing substantive on a raft of issues, and almost none of it properly costed.

I thought the dog act of the night was Zed beginning his speech over the top of Meredith’s, knowing that Aunty would switch coverage. This couldn’t possibly have been a mistake.

If I was boss of the world, or maybe just advising the two Greens, my feeling would be to let the Tories form government. But do so on the condition that they keep the rates reforms, which are incredibly sensible economic policy (if poorly sold and defended), and include a parliamentary agreement ensuring other parties get a go at chairing committees and have access to government officials for economic modelling etc, much like the current setup we’ve had for the last four years which has served all MLAs, Libs included, pretty well. Then let the more politically astute members of the ALP and the Greens keep the bastards honest for the next four years. If things get really tropical the ALP and Greens can simply form a new government. Having that in the back of Zed’s mind mightn’t be a bad thing.

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