Election result shift, 8/8/1 a possibility?

johnboy 22 October 2012 179

The ABC’s Antony Green has some updated numbers on the possible election outcome.

He’s seeing a chance of Labor getting three seats in Ginninderra at the expense of the Greens’ Meredith Hunter.

This would give us an 8 Labor, 8 Liberal, 1 Green assembly.

With only 84% of the vote counted and little serious preference information we maintain it’s far too early to be calling these close final positions.

And much too early to be horse trading.


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179 Responses to Election result shift, 8/8/1 a possibility?
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Masquara Masquara 7:42 pm 22 Oct 12

johnboy said :

It would be bloody ironic if Caroline Le Couteur, long thought the green most vulnerable, were to end up being the last one standing.

Frankly I think she is the only actual Green. Never saw the other Greens riding to work on a bike, or on the bus!

Masquara Masquara 7:41 pm 22 Oct 12

Panhead said :

Smiling from ear to ear 🙂

+1

How_Canberran How_Canberran 7:37 pm 22 Oct 12

PantsMan said :

Stop bloody counting and let’s start looting!

I love it!

How Canberran

Tetranitrate Tetranitrate 7:32 pm 22 Oct 12

How_Canberran said :

Riveting stuff, this!
Who really cares about what is essentially a local council election?

As long as my bins are emptied on time and the magpies swoop at regular intervals.

How Canberran.

Because it’s also effectively a state election and some people happen to care about police, hospitals and education… how Canberran of them.

pirate_taco pirate_taco 7:31 pm 22 Oct 12

wildturkeycanoe said :

So, we are saying that Greens have crashed and burned in the election, yet they may have supreme power to control all that goes on? This is the worst system ever.

They don’t have supreme power.
Liberals and Labor could vote together to override the Greens on any issue.
The Greens could vote to elect a Labor CM, but vote with Liberals on any issue, as they did a few times during the last term.

Neither party has a majority and needs to work with one or more other parties in order to get things done. We just happen to have given two parties almost complete control and a third party with the balance required to pass anything.
If we had more parties or independents on the cross bench it wouldn’t appear to all come down to the whim of a party holding a single seat.

I think it is far too early to be calling the hinge seats as they are all so close. It’ll all come down to preferences and thanks to the semi-random nature of how we collectively chose our preferences it is very difficult to predict.
Looking forward to tomorrow night when the next update of preference distribution is due.

tuco tuco 7:24 pm 22 Oct 12

PantsMan said :

Stop bloody counting and let’s start looting!

Kent Brockman: Hordes of panicky people seem to be evacuating the town for some unknown reason. Professor, without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it’s time for our viewers to crack each other’s heads open and feast on the goo inside?
Professor: Yes I would, Kent.

How_Canberran How_Canberran 7:10 pm 22 Oct 12

Riveting stuff, this!
Who really cares about what is essentially a local council election?

As long as my bins are emptied on time and the magpies swoop at regular intervals.

How Canberran.

PantsMan PantsMan 7:04 pm 22 Oct 12

Stop bloody counting and let’s start looting!

miz miz 7:02 pm 22 Oct 12

Seems crazy that one MLA could effectively run the show.
IMHO they should remain cross-bench.

c_c™ c_c™ 6:48 pm 22 Oct 12

wildturkeycanoe said :

So, we are saying that Greens have crashed and burned in the election, yet they may have supreme power to control all that goes on? This is the worst system ever.

Could be worst. NSW is at the mercy of the shooters and Fred Nile. It’s a fact that in system that has two dominant parties, you will end up with hinge parties that can often achieve influence far beyond their mere numbers.

wildturkeycanoe wildturkeycanoe 6:44 pm 22 Oct 12

So, we are saying that Greens have crashed and burned in the election, yet they may have supreme power to control all that goes on? This is the worst system ever.

johnboy johnboy 6:43 pm 22 Oct 12

It would be bloody ironic if Caroline Le Couteur, long thought the green most vulnerable, were to end up being the last one standing.

milkman milkman 6:06 pm 22 Oct 12

Woody Mann-Caruso said :

Number of seats needed by The Greens to control the Assembly: 1
Number of seats held by The Greens: 1

It definitely makes for interesting times.

Woody Mann-Caruso Woody Mann-Caruso 5:59 pm 22 Oct 12

Number of seats needed by The Greens to control the Assembly: 1
Number of seats held by The Greens: 1

bundah bundah 5:34 pm 22 Oct 12

Well the Greens have certainly come down to earth with a thud!

milkman milkman 5:24 pm 22 Oct 12

Anything that reduces the Greens’ footprint is good news.

harvyk1 harvyk1 5:22 pm 22 Oct 12

So after all that, the person who will be our next CM is potentially to be decided by 1 person (who will be influenced by a whole lot of other people)

OK I know that’s not quite how the system works, but up until your presented with a list of names on the ballot, most who I didn’t recognise, the way most people think is vote labor = Katy as CM, vote liberal = Zed as CM.

I do kinda wish there was a “I don’t trust any of these people to run this joint” option on a ballot.

Tetranitrate Tetranitrate 5:20 pm 22 Oct 12

Interesting, because the rumor is that Hunter loathes Zed on a personal level/

Panhead Panhead 5:11 pm 22 Oct 12

Smiling from ear to ear 🙂

JessP JessP 4:54 pm 22 Oct 12

Bloody hell.

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