9 August 2010

Greens in with a shot for Gazza's Senate seat?

| johnboy
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The conventional political wisdom is that the Greens have no chance of stopping the Liberals Gary Humphries getting the 33% of the vote he needs to hold his Senate seat in his own right.

But Green candidate Lin Hattfield Dodds is pretty much the only candidate making a campaign of it.

Today the green cheerleaders at the ABC are running on a Green poll showing Gary just under the needed quota at 30% with the Greens breathing down his neck at 26%.

If this is accurate then Labor preferences could get them over the line.

Our ad sales people are standing by the phone waiting to hear from the campaign offices.

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I was happy to do a walk with my wife and two young children on the weekend, dropping flyers in mailboxes for Gary. If you met him in person, you’d like him instantly. He’s a genuine bloke, very down to earth.

Just not as huggable as Hockey.

I think that Garry will be just fine, it would take a bit of a miracle for the greens to get across the line. Seeing that there is only 4 parties on the senate ticket the Democrats will probably do better than the 2007 campaign. It is interesting that the Dems have preferenced the Libs ahead of any one else, it’s a big change from their usual split ticket giving both ALP and Libs an even spilt. I know that the greens pulled a very dirty trick on the Dems in 2007 it quite extraordinary that they have broken with tradition. I guess that they still must be pi$$ed off with the Greens.

On a side note does anyone know what has happened to the senate candidates from last time? Eg… Lisa Mallat(LDP), Emma Davidson(WWW) or Dr Micheal Denbrough (NDP), it was a lot more interesting campaign in 2007, don’t you think?.

Via Facebook, I know Norvan former Democrats/Community Alliance Candidates is off saving Damsels in distress in Bolivia [ http://www.travelpod.com/travel-blog-entries/monicahartley/1/1277902891/tpod.html ] but anyone know what happened to all the others?

Clown Killer10:45 am 10 Aug 10

To be honest, I don’t think Garry is losing a lot of sleep over this. Amusing as it might be to consider the possibilities, the Greens stand little chance.

Gungahlin Al9:48 am 10 Aug 10

bd84 said :

We have had most local members live under a rock for 2.5 years for the past 10 or so years, having a member jump up and down for half thought of policies that are unlikely to ever see the light of day is not what Canberra needs. A vote for the Greens would be a waste of paper in this City…

Your argument seems to conflict with itself. You argue for ignoring elected reps that only bother to get serious about anything when an election is in the offing, then you lambast voting for the alternative to the aforesaid lazy ones. Weird.

We have had most local members live under a rock for 2.5 years for the past 10 or so years, having a member jump up and down for half thought of policies that are unlikely to ever see the light of day is not what Canberra needs. A vote for the Greens would be a waste of paper in this City…

The Traineediplomat10:52 pm 09 Aug 10

As always polls with various numbers are thrown about. The past couple of elections I have been interested in the growing support for the Greens, not just in the shift to their policies, but as a ‘way’ of ACT voters trying to unsettle the status quo. I’m for that.

What annoys me about the CT article is the “Humphries v Hatfield Dodds battle hots up” headline. HEATS UP, HEATS UP…. GAHHHHHHHHH

Outta Control said :

The Greens are opposed to heterosexual relationships and any children they might produce,

The Greens only support gay relationships.

The Greens are opposed to humanity altogether.

The Greens consider humans to be a threat to trees and wilderness areas

The Greens’ ultimate aim is to have us all living in caves without electricity or any modern features

The Greens intend to wipe out the human race altogether.

I like these policies! I have changed my vote to the greens.

Outta Control said :

The Greens are opposed to heterosexual relationships and any children they might produce, they only support gay relationships. Actually they are opposed to humanity altogether. They consider humans to be a threat to trees and wilderness areas and their ultimate aim is to have us all living in caves without electricity or any modern features before wiping out the human race altogether.

Gee, you’re a barrel of laughs, Outta Control? I’m trying to imagine a context in which what you just said makes sense.

Outta Control5:33 pm 09 Aug 10

zephyr9673 said :

Oh lord yes, please lord please.

Gary mate, you might not remember me, when I told your staff I was upset at the level of Child theft in the Family court of Australia, and they though it was funny.

I tell you, Gary, I hope you, and your party are resigned to history. A hint, when someone says they are upset about there child being stolen, they mean it, it isn’t a smiling or laughing matter, and seven years later you still haven’t done anything, All my family owns you a prayer that the lord forgives you.

Go greens, go get that raise!

I’m afraid you’re barking up the wrong tree (to coin a phrase) if you expect the Greens to help you with a child custody issue. The Greens are opposed to heterosexual relationships and any children they might produce, they only support gay relationships. Actually they are opposed to humanity altogether. They consider humans to be a threat to trees and wilderness areas and their ultimate aim is to have us all living in caves without electricity or any modern features before wiping out the human race altogether.

54-11 said :

Much as I’d like to see it happen, I don’t think so either.

However, if it is close enough that it puts the big two on notice that they can’t continue to take the ACT electorate for granted, then the job will at least be half done.

Labor can continue to take their two reps seats and one senate seat for granted!

…of course, there’s a fair whack of observer bias in this, because the Greens wouldn’t have leaked the polling if it looked bad, would they?

colourful sydney racing identity3:58 pm 09 Aug 10

zephyr9673 said :

Oh lord yes, please lord please.

Gary mate, you might not remember me, when I told your staff I was upset at the level of Child theft in the Family court of Australia, and they though it was funny.

I tell you, Gary, I hope you, and your party are resigned to history. A hint, when someone says they are upset about there child being stolen, they mean it, it isn’t a smiling or laughing matter, and seven years later you still haven’t done anything, All my family owns you a prayer that the lord forgives you.

Go greens, go get that raise!

You can pray all you want, IT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

For a bit of perspective, the margin of error on the Greens result is 4.26%, and on the Liberals result it’s 4.45%.

On the other hand, it does mean that there’s about a 93% chance that the true measure of Liberal support was below the magic 33.33%.

The Times says the pollster was YourSource. Never head of them, but their website suggests they do online polling, not traditional data-gathering (phone surveys, face-to-face, etc).

In other words, it’s a load of croc. Don’t get your hopes up/down/whatever.

Oh lord yes, please lord please.

Gary mate, you might not remember me, when I told your staff I was upset at the level of Child theft in the Family court of Australia, and they though it was funny.

I tell you, Gary, I hope you, and your party are resigned to history. A hint, when someone says they are upset about there child being stolen, they mean it, it isn’t a smiling or laughing matter, and seven years later you still haven’t done anything, All my family owns you a prayer that the lord forgives you.

Go greens, go get that raise!

Every election for the past 20 years this story seems to get a run

You can set your watch to it

First the Democrats and now the Greens talking up about winning the 2nd ACT Senate Seat

Fact is even at the lowest of low times, the Liberal vote never drops below 30%

colourful sydney racing identity1:58 pm 09 Aug 10

Bosworth said :

are there any gambling sites giving odds for the ACT senate result? If so, what prices are they giving?

(I can’t access gambling sites)

Yes there are. can’t access it here but had a look at the weekend and the Greens were pretty long odds – from memory around $5.

I would back (no pun intended) a betting site ahead of an opinion poll any day of the week.

neanderthalsis1:54 pm 09 Aug 10

The polling – commissioned by the Greens… Nuff said.

are there any gambling sites giving odds for the ACT senate result? If so, what prices are they giving?

(I can’t access gambling sites)

Much as I’d like to see it happen, I don’t think so either.

However, if it is close enough that it puts the big two on notice that they can’t continue to take the ACT electorate for granted, then the job will at least be half done.

Gungahlin Al12:29 pm 09 Aug 10

The Times had this story on the front page today, although they are not reproducing the stats on their website.

Apart from what is mentioned above, they said the poll showed ALP on 36%, and assumed the 3% excess would flow to Greens, bringing them from 26 to 29%, and therefore within striking distance of unseating Humphries.

colourful sydney racing identity11:59 am 09 Aug 10

No chance of the Greens winning the second senate seat. Even if the Democrats hadn’t decided to preference the Liberals ahead of the Greens they wouldn’t get over the line.

The only thing that will come from this greens commissioned poll is that it may spook the Liberal party into pissing away more money on advertising the dangers of voting green.

Tetranitrate11:43 am 09 Aug 10

It just doesn’t strike me as plausible. Kerrie Tucker was a higher profile candidate, but fell short at an election where the liberals were losing seats across the country.
Also: what’s with reporting polls without the margin of error?

justin heywood11:41 am 09 Aug 10

Johnboy, does that story have an author? Could it be the same ABC journalist Stephen Dziedzic (mentioned before in this august blog) who seems to have a fascination with the Greens?

No matter who wins, it’s good to see genuine competition for Senate seats. Hopefully it will lead to better representation of the diversity of Canberra views.

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