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Greens in with a shot for Gazza’s Senate seat?

By johnboy - 9 August 2010 25

The conventional political wisdom is that the Greens have no chance of stopping the Liberals Gary Humphries getting the 33% of the vote he needs to hold his Senate seat in his own right.

But Green candidate Lin Hattfield Dodds is pretty much the only candidate making a campaign of it.

Today the green cheerleaders at the ABC are running on a Green poll showing Gary just under the needed quota at 30% with the Greens breathing down his neck at 26%.

If this is accurate then Labor preferences could get them over the line.

Our ad sales people are standing by the phone waiting to hear from the campaign offices.

What’s Your opinion?


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25 Responses to
Greens in with a shot for Gazza’s Senate seat?
caf 4:25 pm 09 Aug 10

…of course, there’s a fair whack of observer bias in this, because the Greens wouldn’t have leaked the polling if it looked bad, would they?

colourful sydney rac 3:58 pm 09 Aug 10

zephyr9673 said :

Oh lord yes, please lord please.

Gary mate, you might not remember me, when I told your staff I was upset at the level of Child theft in the Family court of Australia, and they though it was funny.

I tell you, Gary, I hope you, and your party are resigned to history. A hint, when someone says they are upset about there child being stolen, they mean it, it isn’t a smiling or laughing matter, and seven years later you still haven’t done anything, All my family owns you a prayer that the lord forgives you.

Go greens, go get that raise!

You can pray all you want, IT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

caf 3:42 pm 09 Aug 10

For a bit of perspective, the margin of error on the Greens result is 4.26%, and on the Liberals result it’s 4.45%.

On the other hand, it does mean that there’s about a 93% chance that the true measure of Liberal support was below the magic 33.33%.

WillowJim 3:21 pm 09 Aug 10

The Times says the pollster was YourSource. Never head of them, but their website suggests they do online polling, not traditional data-gathering (phone surveys, face-to-face, etc).

In other words, it’s a load of croc. Don’t get your hopes up/down/whatever.

zephyr9673 3:09 pm 09 Aug 10

Oh lord yes, please lord please.

Gary mate, you might not remember me, when I told your staff I was upset at the level of Child theft in the Family court of Australia, and they though it was funny.

I tell you, Gary, I hope you, and your party are resigned to history. A hint, when someone says they are upset about there child being stolen, they mean it, it isn’t a smiling or laughing matter, and seven years later you still haven’t done anything, All my family owns you a prayer that the lord forgives you.

Go greens, go get that raise!

RegGrundies 2:25 pm 09 Aug 10

Every election for the past 20 years this story seems to get a run

You can set your watch to it

First the Democrats and now the Greens talking up about winning the 2nd ACT Senate Seat

Fact is even at the lowest of low times, the Liberal vote never drops below 30%

colourful sydney rac 1:58 pm 09 Aug 10

Bosworth said :

are there any gambling sites giving odds for the ACT senate result? If so, what prices are they giving?

(I can’t access gambling sites)

Yes there are. can’t access it here but had a look at the weekend and the Greens were pretty long odds – from memory around $5.

I would back (no pun intended) a betting site ahead of an opinion poll any day of the week.

neanderthalsis 1:54 pm 09 Aug 10

The polling – commissioned by the Greens… Nuff said.

Bosworth 1:11 pm 09 Aug 10

are there any gambling sites giving odds for the ACT senate result? If so, what prices are they giving?

(I can’t access gambling sites)

54-11 12:42 pm 09 Aug 10

Much as I’d like to see it happen, I don’t think so either.

However, if it is close enough that it puts the big two on notice that they can’t continue to take the ACT electorate for granted, then the job will at least be half done.

Gungahlin Al 12:29 pm 09 Aug 10

The Times had this story on the front page today, although they are not reproducing the stats on their website.

Apart from what is mentioned above, they said the poll showed ALP on 36%, and assumed the 3% excess would flow to Greens, bringing them from 26 to 29%, and therefore within striking distance of unseating Humphries.

colourful sydney rac 11:59 am 09 Aug 10

No chance of the Greens winning the second senate seat. Even if the Democrats hadn’t decided to preference the Liberals ahead of the Greens they wouldn’t get over the line.

The only thing that will come from this greens commissioned poll is that it may spook the Liberal party into pissing away more money on advertising the dangers of voting green.

Tetranitrate 11:43 am 09 Aug 10

It just doesn’t strike me as plausible. Kerrie Tucker was a higher profile candidate, but fell short at an election where the liberals were losing seats across the country.
Also: what’s with reporting polls without the margin of error?

justin heywood 11:41 am 09 Aug 10

Johnboy, does that story have an author? Could it be the same ABC journalist Stephen Dziedzic (mentioned before in this august blog) who seems to have a fascination with the Greens?

emd 11:14 am 09 Aug 10

No matter who wins, it’s good to see genuine competition for Senate seats. Hopefully it will lead to better representation of the diversity of Canberra views.

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