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Hanson considers position as Coe waits in wings

By Charlotte Harper 16 October 2016 23

Jeremy Hanson and Alistair Coe

ACT Opposition Leader Jeremy Hanson will take time in coming days to consider whether he should contest a likely leadership contest with his deputy, Alistair Coe, in the next couple of weeks following the Canberra Liberals’ defeat in yesterday’s ACT election.

Mr Hanson noted that it was the protocol and tradition that the leadership would become vacant once the full make-up of the Assembly was known and then MLAs would be invited to stand for leader and deputy leader.

“Whether I stand or not is a decision I’m yet to take, and it’s something I’ll discuss with the other members of the Liberal Party and my family over the next couple of weeks,” he said.

Was Alistair Coe a potential alternative?

“I think he’s a fantastic guy. We may end up being rivals for the leadership, but what I would say is that there’s no question in my mind that Alistair will lead the party one day, and I’m sure he’ll lead it to success.

“He’ll be the next leader of the Liberal Party, whether it’s in two weeks or further down the track, that’s just a matter for us to see.”

Mr Hanson reflected on his time as Opposition Leader to date positively, but noted that making his concession speech last night was tough.

“It was really disappointing to have to stand up in front of people who’ve worked so hard for so long and say that we hadn’t won. That was one of the hardest things I’d had to do in my life, to be honest,” he said.

“There have been highs and lows. The destination wasn’t where we wanted to end up, but the journey’s been fabulous and it’s been a real honour and a privilege to work in the Assembly with such good parliamentarians, such great staff, to work out there in the field with such wonderful candidates, to be part of a Liberal Party that has such a fine tradition both here in Canberra but also across Australia.

“So I have certainly enjoyed it, whether I continue on or not is a matter for decisions in a couple of weeks, but I’ll do what I think is right for the party.

“The other thing is, it might not be my decision … that’s the way politics works.”

Mr Hanson said he didn’t think there was much more he and his team could’ve done in their attempt to oust Labor and that the party would take some time to consider why it couldn’t form government over the next few weeks.

As to whether the Canberra Liberals’ strategy to focus their campaign on their opposition to light rail had been the right one, Mr Hanson held the line.

“Well, I suppose we’re not forming government, so that’s a point for future analysis, but the reality is that we stand by our view that light rail is the wrong option for Canberra,” he said.

“The politics of it might have been wrong, that’s for others to judge, but the policy was right.”

Asked about the performance of his deputy in Yerrabi, where the Liberals look likely to take only two seats, Mr Hanson praised Mr Coe.

“I think Alistair’s done a fantastic job and I think throughout the term, he has been the star performer in the Opposition,” he said.

“It was always going to be a difficult ask in Yerrabi, there’s no doubt about it, because people understand that south of the lake, the tram is very unpopular, there is a mood against the government, and that’s reflected in out vote.

“North of the lake, it’s somewhat different … I think Alistair did as best he possibly could.”

Meanwhile, ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr was celebrating with colleagues in Ainslie this afternoon.

He told journalists during a press conference that while it was possible one of the two likely Greens MLAs could join his cabinet, it would be unlikely that both would do so. He said he hoped to be able to hold one position in cabinet for a few months in order to later promote one of the new ALP members of the Assembly to the ministry.

“On a personal level, I’m delighted to no longer be the youngests member of Labor caucus,” he said.

“We’ve got new fresh faces who will be elected this time around.”

“I am considering in terms of the number of ministers, being able to leave a position vacant and bring someone in later on, once they’ve had that experience, so all of those options are available. We have seven ministers at the moment, Simon Corbell is retiring, so there are already vacancies.”

He described the Sex Party’s result in Brindabella, where Steven Bailey is still in contention for a seat, as “extraordinary”.

Greens leader Shane Rattenbury and Caroline Le Couteur, the candidate most likely to join him in the Assembly, stepped out of a party function to discuss the make-up of the Assembly and their agenda this afternoon, also.


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23 Responses to
Hanson considers position as Coe waits in wings
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Obiter_Dictum 4:01 pm 18 Oct 16

Actually, the Libs found a few socially liberal moderate candidates, all with solid careers outside of politics, this time around. Problem is, many have lost out to conservatives who have been endorsed by organisations like the ACL and Right to Life (the latter’s website has a list of preferred candidates who are mainly Libs).

Clearly the result says something, although whether about the Liberal Party itself, the kind of person who votes for the Liberal Party in the ACT, or just the advantage that comes from having lots of churchy help (the Lib’s version of union minions, although they have clearly helped Ramsay too), I don’t know.

It is a serious problem for the libs that Canberrans think of them as social conservatives. That might be fine elsewhere, but not here, in highly educated, open minded Canberra. There were undoubtedly many people this election who would have loved a more economically rational government, but not at the expense of their social rights. Kate Carnell, Jeremy Hanson and Elizabeth Lee have all done well here, but they have been successful at promoting themselves as moderates outside the usual party channels. Others havent had that option. I had to seriously research to find the moderate candidates. I doubt many other people could be bothered, even if they were able. Too risky to vote Liberal when you may be voting for an Abbott or an Abetz. That leaves mainly only the true conservatives voting Lib, the true conservatives getting up as a result, and the party becoming increasingly less electable in the Territory as a result.

Ghettosmurf87 3:29 pm 18 Oct 16

JC said :

Acton said :

So now you’ve got your tram, how are you going to pay for it? Where is 1.78 billion dollars going to come from? Borrowing money today means you and your children have to pay off that debt tomorrow.
I don’t care.
What impact will raising rates by 10% every year have on families, the elderly and young couples with big mortgages?
I don’t know.
Do you care that landlords will pass on 10% rates rises to tenants as higher rents? The cost of living goes up and housing affordability goes down for everyone, including you.
It’s too hard to think about. I’ll just have another latte and send a tweet to show how clever and progressive I am. Maggie who?
[[“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money”]]

Whilst $1.78b looks like a big scary number, do remember that that is an indexed figure over 20 years. The figure in today’s dollars is $939m, of which $707m is the construction cost, which includes $117m of contingency (so may not be spent) and $232m is the running and finance costs over 20 years.

Of that $939m $305m is a one off payment on completion of which $60m is from the asset reclcying scheme. And then the remainder is paid off at the rate of $64m (on average over the course of 20 years). The actual figures though are $47m in first year (line won’t be open the full year, $54m in second year, increasing through to 2038 where it is $75m.

So what the budget needs to find is $245m for the one off payment, and in 2016 terms $47m p/a for the next 20 years.

So there are 155,000 households in Canberra at present. Taxes make up 32% of the annual territory budget and rates make up 27% of taxes. So in 2016 terms based on the $54m, payment the ‘hit’ to rates if you will is actually a one off payment of $137 per household, plus $30 per house hold per year, or 58c per week over 20 years. In 2016 terms.

So your point?

His point is that big numbers are scary and surely will convince the electorate to vote the Liberals in….

Mysteryman 2:34 pm 18 Oct 16

Acton said :

So now you’ve got your tram, how are you going to pay for it? Where is 1.78 billion dollars going to come from? Borrowing money today means you and your children have to pay off that debt tomorrow.
I don’t care.
What impact will raising rates by 10% every year have on families, the elderly and young couples with big mortgages?
I don’t know.
Do you care that landlords will pass on 10% rates rises to tenants as higher rents? The cost of living goes up and housing affordability goes down for everyone, including you.
It’s too hard to think about. I’ll just have another latte and send a tweet to show how clever and progressive I am. Maggie who?
[[“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money”]]

What happened to Labor being the party that cared about low income earners? ACT Labor seem to be diametrically opposed to how their Federal counterparts want to be seen.

Mysteryman 2:29 pm 18 Oct 16

JC said :

So what the budget needs to find is $245m for the one off payment, and in 2016 terms $47m p/a for the next 20 years.

That should be easy. I mean, that last 4 budgets have only had minor deficits of about $400m – $780m. And Barr managed to plug those hole by jacking up rates AND charging stamp duty. And all this despite his lies about it being a revenue neutral move. I’m sure the next few rounds of 10% rates increases will take care of that little $245m amount.

It won’t help those people struggling to pay a mortgage, though. I’m sure the thought of high income earners being able to buy more properties with slightly reduced stamp duty will keep them warm at night when they can’t afford to heat their homes.

Garfield 2:14 pm 18 Oct 16

JC said :

Acton said :

So now you’ve got your tram, how are you going to pay for it? Where is 1.78 billion dollars going to come from? Borrowing money today means you and your children have to pay off that debt tomorrow.
I don’t care.
What impact will raising rates by 10% every year have on families, the elderly and young couples with big mortgages?
I don’t know.
Do you care that landlords will pass on 10% rates rises to tenants as higher rents? The cost of living goes up and housing affordability goes down for everyone, including you.
It’s too hard to think about. I’ll just have another latte and send a tweet to show how clever and progressive I am. Maggie who?
[[“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money”]]

Whilst $1.78b looks like a big scary number, do remember that that is an indexed figure over 20 years. The figure in today’s dollars is $939m, of which $707m is the construction cost, which includes $117m of contingency (so may not be spent) and $232m is the running and finance costs over 20 years.

Of that $939m $305m is a one off payment on completion of which $60m is from the asset reclcying scheme. And then the remainder is paid off at the rate of $64m (on average over the course of 20 years). The actual figures though are $47m in first year (line won’t be open the full year, $54m in second year, increasing through to 2038 where it is $75m.

So what the budget needs to find is $245m for the one off payment, and in 2016 terms $47m p/a for the next 20 years.

So there are 155,000 households in Canberra at present. Taxes make up 32% of the annual territory budget and rates make up 27% of taxes. So in 2016 terms based on the $54m, payment the ‘hit’ to rates if you will is actually a one off payment of $137 per household, plus $30 per house hold per year, or 58c per week over 20 years. In 2016 terms.

So your point?

The problem with the cost in 2016 terms is the discount rate used. You’re also only using the payments to the consortium rather than the full cost to government as identified by the auditor general. To get the cost that low, the rate must be something in the order of 6%+, however wages growth and inflation are both well under that level at the moment. Even using a 2.5% rate, being the long term average inflation rate the RBA aims for, the net present cost of Stage 1 is close to $1.4bn. That rate is a reasonable proxy for the increased income residents will receive over time and so a much better rate than that for a secured long term commercial loan.

JC 1:00 pm 18 Oct 16

Acton said :

So now you’ve got your tram, how are you going to pay for it? Where is 1.78 billion dollars going to come from? Borrowing money today means you and your children have to pay off that debt tomorrow.
I don’t care.
What impact will raising rates by 10% every year have on families, the elderly and young couples with big mortgages?
I don’t know.
Do you care that landlords will pass on 10% rates rises to tenants as higher rents? The cost of living goes up and housing affordability goes down for everyone, including you.
It’s too hard to think about. I’ll just have another latte and send a tweet to show how clever and progressive I am. Maggie who?
[[“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money”]]

Whilst $1.78b looks like a big scary number, do remember that that is an indexed figure over 20 years. The figure in today’s dollars is $939m, of which $707m is the construction cost, which includes $117m of contingency (so may not be spent) and $232m is the running and finance costs over 20 years.

Of that $939m $305m is a one off payment on completion of which $60m is from the asset reclcying scheme. And then the remainder is paid off at the rate of $64m (on average over the course of 20 years). The actual figures though are $47m in first year (line won’t be open the full year, $54m in second year, increasing through to 2038 where it is $75m.

So what the budget needs to find is $245m for the one off payment, and in 2016 terms $47m p/a for the next 20 years.

So there are 155,000 households in Canberra at present. Taxes make up 32% of the annual territory budget and rates make up 27% of taxes. So in 2016 terms based on the $54m, payment the ‘hit’ to rates if you will is actually a one off payment of $137 per household, plus $30 per house hold per year, or 58c per week over 20 years. In 2016 terms.

So your point?

dungfungus 12:34 pm 18 Oct 16

Acton said :

So now you’ve got your tram, how are you going to pay for it? Where is 1.78 billion dollars going to come from? Borrowing money today means you and your children have to pay off that debt tomorrow.
I don’t care.
What impact will raising rates by 10% every year have on families, the elderly and young couples with big mortgages?
I don’t know.
Do you care that landlords will pass on 10% rates rises to tenants as higher rents? The cost of living goes up and housing affordability goes down for everyone, including you.
It’s too hard to think about. I’ll just have another latte and send a tweet to show how clever and progressive I am. Maggie who?
[[“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money”]]

Make that a double latte.

Acton 12:19 pm 18 Oct 16

So now you’ve got your tram, how are you going to pay for it? Where is 1.78 billion dollars going to come from? Borrowing money today means you and your children have to pay off that debt tomorrow.
I don’t care.
What impact will raising rates by 10% every year have on families, the elderly and young couples with big mortgages?
I don’t know.
Do you care that landlords will pass on 10% rates rises to tenants as higher rents? The cost of living goes up and housing affordability goes down for everyone, including you.
It’s too hard to think about. I’ll just have another latte and send a tweet to show how clever and progressive I am. Maggie who?
[[“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money”]]

justin heywood 7:13 am 18 Oct 16

JC said :

Some people say I am a Bolshevik, so yeah either or. But at least I don’t pretend to be something I am not to get votes. And that was my point. Idolising someone like Thatcher to the point of having her pic on the office wall says to me more right than portrayed.

It’s an odd world where it’s OK to have a picture of a murderous thug on your wall but having ol’ Maggie up there indicates true evil.

JC 12:19 am 18 Oct 16

dungfungus said :

JC said :

dungfungus said :

JC said :

A Nonny Mouse said :

I had the impression, not that I paid the Libs much attention, that Coe and most of the rest were of the right-wing Abetz-Bernardi-Abbott faction – unelectable. Hanson was, I thought, the least unprogressive of them and consequently the most electable, not that that counts for much when you consider the sort of company he chose to keep. A swap to Coe would just make things worse for them, I would have thought.

He has a picture a Maggie thatcher on his wall. So maybe I little more to the right than he came across as.

And who do you have a picture of on your wall, JC?

Lenin or Trotsky.

The latter is quoted as saying: ““The end may justify the means as long as there is something that justifies the end.”

That fits.

Some people say I am a Bolshevik, so yeah either or. But at least I don’t pretend to be something I am not to get votes. And that was my point. Idolising someone like Thatcher to the point of having her pic on the office wall says to me more right than portrayed.

Well said, comrade.

Email me if you want an invite to the next committee meeting. Might be able to turn you from blue to red.

dungfungus 10:57 pm 17 Oct 16

JC said :

dungfungus said :

JC said :

A Nonny Mouse said :

I had the impression, not that I paid the Libs much attention, that Coe and most of the rest were of the right-wing Abetz-Bernardi-Abbott faction – unelectable. Hanson was, I thought, the least unprogressive of them and consequently the most electable, not that that counts for much when you consider the sort of company he chose to keep. A swap to Coe would just make things worse for them, I would have thought.

He has a picture a Maggie thatcher on his wall. So maybe I little more to the right than he came across as.

And who do you have a picture of on your wall, JC?

Lenin or Trotsky.

The latter is quoted as saying: ““The end may justify the means as long as there is something that justifies the end.”

That fits.

Some people say I am a Bolshevik, so yeah either or. But at least I don’t pretend to be something I am not to get votes. And that was my point. Idolising someone like Thatcher to the point of having her pic on the office wall says to me more right than portrayed.

Well said, comrade.

JC 5:55 pm 17 Oct 16

dungfungus said :

JC said :

A Nonny Mouse said :

I had the impression, not that I paid the Libs much attention, that Coe and most of the rest were of the right-wing Abetz-Bernardi-Abbott faction – unelectable. Hanson was, I thought, the least unprogressive of them and consequently the most electable, not that that counts for much when you consider the sort of company he chose to keep. A swap to Coe would just make things worse for them, I would have thought.

He has a picture a Maggie thatcher on his wall. So maybe I little more to the right than he came across as.

And who do you have a picture of on your wall, JC?

Lenin or Trotsky.

The latter is quoted as saying: ““The end may justify the means as long as there is something that justifies the end.”

That fits.

Some people say I am a Bolshevik, so yeah either or. But at least I don’t pretend to be something I am not to get votes. And that was my point. Idolising someone like Thatcher to the point of having her pic on the office wall says to me more right than portrayed.

Garfield 1:24 pm 17 Oct 16

Despite Hanson being a more moderate Liberal, the social conservatism of the Seselja years still looks to be hanging heavy over the ACT Party and Barr was smart to keep referring to them as conservatives. I think it probably cost votes. There was practically nobody to the right of the Libs in the election, meaning they lost votes to candidates closer to the political centre. Dunne & Jones going to Europe to investigate the Nordic system of prostitution, which is more conservative than we have here, certainly could not have helped in that respect. A switch to Coe would just reinforce that image, probably leading to another Labor win in 2020. The lesson from this election is the Canberra Liberals need to embrace the social moderates if they want to connect with voters. Hanson has to stay on and if possible they should look for a moderate deputy as well. It’s not like Coe went well in Yerrabi, having responsibility for the anti-tram policy and messaging, but managing to preside over a 3.3% swing against the party in his electorate.

Madam Cholet 1:11 pm 17 Oct 16

So the spokesperson in the Libs for light rail (or rather against light rail), the architect of their bus alternative, and who therefore oversaw a big swing against the party gets a shot at the leadership. Hmmm.

dungfungus 11:57 am 17 Oct 16

JC said :

A Nonny Mouse said :

I had the impression, not that I paid the Libs much attention, that Coe and most of the rest were of the right-wing Abetz-Bernardi-Abbott faction – unelectable. Hanson was, I thought, the least unprogressive of them and consequently the most electable, not that that counts for much when you consider the sort of company he chose to keep. A swap to Coe would just make things worse for them, I would have thought.

He has a picture a Maggie thatcher on his wall. So maybe I little more to the right than he came across as.

And who do you have a picture of on your wall, JC?

Lenin or Trotsky.

The latter is quoted as saying: ““The end may justify the means as long as there is something that justifies the end.”

That fits.

JC 9:43 am 17 Oct 16

A Nonny Mouse said :

I had the impression, not that I paid the Libs much attention, that Coe and most of the rest were of the right-wing Abetz-Bernardi-Abbott faction – unelectable. Hanson was, I thought, the least unprogressive of them and consequently the most electable, not that that counts for much when you consider the sort of company he chose to keep. A swap to Coe would just make things worse for them, I would have thought.

He has a picture a Maggie thatcher on his wall. So maybe I little more to the right than he came across as.

dungfungus 8:06 am 17 Oct 16

Nilrem said :

Do the Libs really think Coe is going to appeal to the Canberra electorate? He is too conservative. I’d have thought that was obvious. Here is another manifestation of what plagues the Libs at the national level.

I agree with that.

Nilrem 5:06 am 17 Oct 16

Do the Libs really think Coe is going to appeal to the Canberra electorate? He is too conservative. I’d have thought that was obvious. Here is another manifestation of what plagues the Libs at the national level.

Chris Mordd Richards 1:21 am 17 Oct 16

Thanks, very interesting to watch both videos!!

dungfungus 9:31 pm 16 Oct 16

rommeldog56 said :

Hanson should go. They shouldn’t have lost.

Maybe Hanson can ask Barr for a job – a la Brendan Smyth ? In fact, if all the ACT elected Lib’s did that and all received ACT Labor/Greens “appointments”, there may not need to be a token election in 4 years time !

Just think of all the $ it would save.

The Canberra Liberals need a young, dynamic leader who is attractive to the social media devotees who got Labor over the line in the last two elections.

Andrew Wall is the right person and with already four impressive years as an opposition MLA it that be eight years by the time of the next election.

There are some people in the Canberra Liberals that should just go, quietly.

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