ACT Greens leader Shane Rattenbury believes his party can lead the next ACT Government. Photo: Supplied.
ACT Greens leader Shane Rattenbury says his party has a realistic chance of leading the next ACT Government and bringing about “fundamental change” in the capital after the October 2024 election, arguing that a gain of two seats would put them within striking distance.
“We have put up a team of 10 strong lead candidates, two in every electorate. If we can gain a second seat in a couple of other electorates, you’d suddenly see a very different dynamic in the assembly,” he said.
“Just two more seats would see the Greens on par with the Liberals and Labor, at which point, anything is possible.”
His party currently holds six seats in the Legislative Assembly, which makes them a minority coalition partner in the government with ACT Labor, which holds 10 seats. The Canberra Liberals hold the remaining nine seats.
“Progressive voters looking for change could elect a Greens-led government in the ACT, blowing open political possibilities in Canberra and around Australia,” Mr Rattenbury said.
“We have seen in other elections, both in Australia and internationally, when people see alternatives, you are seeing big swings in the vote. We saw it in the Northern Territory election with swings of 15 per cent and in the ACT Senate election,” he said.
Australian National University political scientist Professor John Warhurst says a Greens-majority ACT Government would be a “remarkable result”.
“It’s hard to see the Greens as the majority party. They may be only a few seats from being the largest party, but on the other hand, they’re equally vulnerable to losing seats and being in a weakened position,” he said.
“It’s a complex election, it’s not just a Labor/Liberals/Greens contest, there’s also the prospect of independents getting seats, but we don’t know which party they’ll win seats from … you may even get one or two independents holding the balance of power, but we also don’t know who they may support.”
Professor Warhurst says the challenge of Independents for Canberra candidate Thomas Emerson and others from his party makes predicting this election very difficult. Photo: Supplied.
Professor Warhurst said that in the absence of serious public opinion polls, it’s difficult to know where anyone stands and predict what might happen.
“My feeling is that it’s only in the last few days that the ACT election has gotten much airtime. Everyone is focused on Trump, Harris, Albanese and Dutton. It’s difficult for local politicians and candidates to cut through,” he said.
Belco Party leader Bill Stefaniak ruled out supporting the Greens to form government if his party had members elected to the Legislative Assembly.
“When I was opposition leader back in 2007, I would’ve happily talked to them… [but] you’ve now got a more extreme type of Greens who are Marxists who would want to introduce policies that would even make the Chinese Communist Party blush in terms of the damage they’d do to Australia,” Mr Stefaniak said.
Mr Rattenbury, though, believes the Greens are the only chance ACT voters have of removing Labor from their dominant position in government and bringing about “fundamental change”.
“The voters want an alternative, but the Liberals are not a viable alternative for many in the eyes of many Canberrans; they don’t see the Liberals align with the values and aspirations of our city … the Greens are a real alternative for people in Canberra. We have more experience in government than the Liberals and more courage and ambition than Labor,” he said.
“Labor has spent this campaign announcing their plans to stick with business as usual, and that’s not going to cut it. We need to fundamentally change the way we provide housing in the ACT and the Greens are the only party prepared to do it.”
The ACT election takes place on 19 October 2024.
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