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Liveblogging the election

By johnboy - 19 October 2008 136

[First filed: October 18, 2008 @ 18:06]

18:03

OK… so here we go…

Sources tonight are:
Elections ACT
Elections ABC
NowUC twitter feed

ABC reportage on the tele starts at 18:30.

And the team is ensconced in All Bar Nun now so feel free to come on down.

18:17

Early days but the Greens look like they’re getting the anticipated votes.

No Liberals looking like getting a quota in Ginninderra either.

18:23

ABC showing 14.5% of the vote counted -11% swing against Labor, Libs -2.1, Greens +6.3, others +6.7

18:31

Val Jeffery on .4 of a quota!

18:41

Motorists Party showing the lack of lead candidates with perfectly robson rotated votes.

18: 54

Labor trail Liberals in Brindabella

18:57

Alistair Coe ahead of Vicki Dunne!

19:08

Andrew Barr ahead of Simon Corbell.

19:10

Stanhope well down in Ginninderra. Still going to get back in but with his cohorts polling very badly under half a quota real trouble out in Belco.

19:16

Matthew Watts (Liberal for Ginninderra) has joined us in the bar.

19:27

How much money could Shane Rattenbury make on Centrebet?

19:44

So on early counting the 2008 libs are underperforming the 2004 campaign, and against a government down ~11%. Brendan must be asking questions of the new team.

20:01

15.8% of votes for “other parties”, most of that will probably come back to the Liberals as the Greens managed to get most of the left wing minors to sit out.

20:09

ABC is predicting 7 Labor, 5 Liberal, 2 Green. The bar room psephologists reckon the ABC is full of it.

20:11

Norvan Vogt has joined the party.

20:15

Joy Burch, Labor for Brindabella, on .5 of a quota, there’s a surprise packet!

20:22

Jacqui Burke on a measly .2 of a quota!

20:27

Val Jeffery and Steve Pratt on the same vote right now.

20:32

Liberal Ginninderra vote is awful. the unknown Alistair Coe ahead of lead candidate Vicki Dunne with all of them relying on party line voting to have a snowball’s hope in hell.

20:40

Doszpot looking strong in Brindabella.

20:42

Biggest losers:

Molonglo: Canberra Party’s Joanne Allen: 42 (Joanne doesn’t like talking to the meeja)
Brindabella: CAP’s James Sizer: 469
Ginninderra: Eddie Sarkis: 48

20:49

The Bar Room agrees we’re seeing a massive vote of no confidence in the circus current assembly.

Val Jeffery is ahead of Steve Pratt 2762 v. 2859

21:01

Labor coming back. Pre-poll voters more against than election day voters.

21:06

Liberals in Molonglo 1.5 quotas to Zed and NOTHING for the others. Preferences will have to hold up to bring it back to the others. So much for the cult of personality.

21:17

Current overall numbers: Labor -9.6%, Liberal -3.2%, Greens +6.1%, Others 6.7%.

ABC predicts: Labor 7, Liberal 5, Green 3.

21:45

Staggering that the best Labor can do in Brindabella is .7 quotas for John Hargreaves.

22:16

Readers note that Gallagher is rising and Stanhope’s star is falling.

Also RiotACT would like to hear of precedent where a Government has lost 10% of the vote and yet the opposition has fallen 3.4%.

22:21

Word from scrutineers says Motorist Party voters failed to distribute preferences. Ignorant idiots.

22:28

Stanhope calling it a significant result for him.

But he feels your message deeply for the next four years.

(I had time to go to the toilet and the bar and he was still talking)

22:41

Zed’s on Tele with his young kids, When is their bedtime Zed?

“Tonight the Liberal Party is back in the ACT” (Despite a 3.4% swing against).

Thinks he’ll get the same number of seats as the Labor Party.

“The community has voted for change”

Happy to work with Greens now.

22:58

ABC calling 7 Liberal 7 Labor 3 Green

23:09

It’s all coming down to second preferences. Anyone telling you otherwise is a fraud. There’s no more than 5 seats confident on primary votes.

The Morning After

Thanks to Jane for sending in a shot of the ABC typo that had us chuckling and reaching unsuccessfully for the camera all night:

And that’s all we’ll know for a while, slideshow of the fun in All Bar Nun below:

What’s Your opinion?


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136 Responses to
Liveblogging the election
Kramer 9:07 pm 18 Oct 08

Stanhope, Zed & Gallgher have their quota…

jimbocool 9:07 pm 18 Oct 08

oops- time has gotten away – evenin’ all. Good to see that my hat is safe (I offered to eat it on the greens gaining two in Molonglo) – current projection of 7,7,3 is fair but I reckon that Brindanbella will get very interesting in the later counts of the scrutiny. I’d love to come to ABN but am on parenting duty – suffice to say that if indeed my equal 39th preferences, Richard Mulcahy and Gary Kent, fail to get elected then all is right with ACT democracy 🙂

And good to see RA’s favourite whipping boy, Brendan Smyth, well ahead of the pack in Brindabella!

Have a drink for me in poor Pratty’s name (he’s a goner, Doszpot is in)

Passy 8:56 pm 18 Oct 08

The swing against the ALP is about 10 per cent, against (yes against) the Libs about 2 per cent, to the greens just under 7 per cent and to others about 6 per cent.

My take on the figures so far is that disaffected ALP voters have gone to the greens (in the main) with a few going to others, and some people not sure about the Libs also going to others. Other include the Australian Motorists Party (what someone on RiotACT described as Hansonism on wheels) the Community alliance party (which looks a bit like some right wing ALPers defecting to the CAP and community figures out of various campaigns coalescing with them), and a strong showing for mark Parton.

Did anyone read The Australian’s three reports or opinion pieces on the ACT election today (Saturday)? Sneering ignorance as far I can see.

grunge_hippy 8:55 pm 18 Oct 08

Can anyone explain why Giulia with a G is coming second for the Libs in Molonglo?????

>>> cos she (well her plebs) were handing out many many many balloons at the marketplace today.

people like balloons.

😛

Primal 7:44 pm 18 Oct 08

The standard of the Gallagher + Smyth Show on the ABC is starting to descend…

politikos 7:27 pm 18 Oct 08

Can anyone explain why Giulia with a G is coming second for the Libs in Molonglo?????

S4anta 7:26 pm 18 Oct 08

good luck for tonight mssr watts.

rosebud 7:26 pm 18 Oct 08

Just a little joke btw!

rosebud 7:12 pm 18 Oct 08

Are there, like, eight geeks all sitting aroumd a table, shouting each round via email?

johnboy 7:01 pm 18 Oct 08

8 of us here so far.

Opinions abound.

Dante 6:51 pm 18 Oct 08

it’d have to take a fundamental change in the assembly for greens policies to get up and going… i’m sure that both labor and the libs would take exceptions to most of them.

i reckon primal’s on the money, it’s always good having some environmentally minded people being able to have some say in the matters that affect us.

jessieduck 6:47 pm 18 Oct 08

Who’s down at All Bar JB? I’m popping down after we have some dinner

Primal 6:46 pm 18 Oct 08

rosebud said :

How could anyone vote for any party who can’t cost an election policy?

A lot of people don’t want them to govern, just to be a watchdog. I’m not sure their policies enter into it all that much…

Bungle 6:42 pm 18 Oct 08

Better than voting for someone who doesn’t even have any policies – z!

rosebud 6:26 pm 18 Oct 08

Did you see the CT coverage this morning? It showed the Greens as not having costed any of their policies. Is that right? How could anyone vote for any party who can’t cost an election policy? Madness (sheer madness, I say).

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