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Liveblogging the election

By johnboy - 19 October 2008 136

[First filed: October 18, 2008 @ 18:06]

18:03

OK… so here we go…

Sources tonight are:
Elections ACT
Elections ABC
NowUC twitter feed

ABC reportage on the tele starts at 18:30.

And the team is ensconced in All Bar Nun now so feel free to come on down.

18:17

Early days but the Greens look like they’re getting the anticipated votes.

No Liberals looking like getting a quota in Ginninderra either.

18:23

ABC showing 14.5% of the vote counted -11% swing against Labor, Libs -2.1, Greens +6.3, others +6.7

18:31

Val Jeffery on .4 of a quota!

18:41

Motorists Party showing the lack of lead candidates with perfectly robson rotated votes.

18: 54

Labor trail Liberals in Brindabella

18:57

Alistair Coe ahead of Vicki Dunne!

19:08

Andrew Barr ahead of Simon Corbell.

19:10

Stanhope well down in Ginninderra. Still going to get back in but with his cohorts polling very badly under half a quota real trouble out in Belco.

19:16

Matthew Watts (Liberal for Ginninderra) has joined us in the bar.

19:27

How much money could Shane Rattenbury make on Centrebet?

19:44

So on early counting the 2008 libs are underperforming the 2004 campaign, and against a government down ~11%. Brendan must be asking questions of the new team.

20:01

15.8% of votes for “other parties”, most of that will probably come back to the Liberals as the Greens managed to get most of the left wing minors to sit out.

20:09

ABC is predicting 7 Labor, 5 Liberal, 2 Green. The bar room psephologists reckon the ABC is full of it.

20:11

Norvan Vogt has joined the party.

20:15

Joy Burch, Labor for Brindabella, on .5 of a quota, there’s a surprise packet!

20:22

Jacqui Burke on a measly .2 of a quota!

20:27

Val Jeffery and Steve Pratt on the same vote right now.

20:32

Liberal Ginninderra vote is awful. the unknown Alistair Coe ahead of lead candidate Vicki Dunne with all of them relying on party line voting to have a snowball’s hope in hell.

20:40

Doszpot looking strong in Brindabella.

20:42

Biggest losers:

Molonglo: Canberra Party’s Joanne Allen: 42 (Joanne doesn’t like talking to the meeja)
Brindabella: CAP’s James Sizer: 469
Ginninderra: Eddie Sarkis: 48

20:49

The Bar Room agrees we’re seeing a massive vote of no confidence in the circus current assembly.

Val Jeffery is ahead of Steve Pratt 2762 v. 2859

21:01

Labor coming back. Pre-poll voters more against than election day voters.

21:06

Liberals in Molonglo 1.5 quotas to Zed and NOTHING for the others. Preferences will have to hold up to bring it back to the others. So much for the cult of personality.

21:17

Current overall numbers: Labor -9.6%, Liberal -3.2%, Greens +6.1%, Others 6.7%.

ABC predicts: Labor 7, Liberal 5, Green 3.

21:45

Staggering that the best Labor can do in Brindabella is .7 quotas for John Hargreaves.

22:16

Readers note that Gallagher is rising and Stanhope’s star is falling.

Also RiotACT would like to hear of precedent where a Government has lost 10% of the vote and yet the opposition has fallen 3.4%.

22:21

Word from scrutineers says Motorist Party voters failed to distribute preferences. Ignorant idiots.

22:28

Stanhope calling it a significant result for him.

But he feels your message deeply for the next four years.

(I had time to go to the toilet and the bar and he was still talking)

22:41

Zed’s on Tele with his young kids, When is their bedtime Zed?

“Tonight the Liberal Party is back in the ACT” (Despite a 3.4% swing against).

Thinks he’ll get the same number of seats as the Labor Party.

“The community has voted for change”

Happy to work with Greens now.

22:58

ABC calling 7 Liberal 7 Labor 3 Green

23:09

It’s all coming down to second preferences. Anyone telling you otherwise is a fraud. There’s no more than 5 seats confident on primary votes.

The Morning After

Thanks to Jane for sending in a shot of the ABC typo that had us chuckling and reaching unsuccessfully for the camera all night:

And that’s all we’ll know for a while, slideshow of the fun in All Bar Nun below:

What’s Your opinion?


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7
jakez 12:16 pm 20 Oct 08

The_Phantom said :

I spent my first time as a booth worker on Saturday at Red Hill. I supported a friend who was a candidate for the Community Alliance Party.

It was a nice experience but I felt most of the pundits had already made up their minds. Well it is a Liberal booth. I was especially surprised by the comradeship between the booth workers.

I did however witness one nasty incident when Liberal candidate Jeremy Hanson abused and intimidated a fellow Liberal booth worker.

The booth worker who was handing out for Gary Kent looked visibly upset after her encounter with Mr. Hanson so I and others comforted her.

She was Gary Kent’s sister and had come up from Melbourne to support her brother. She wasn’t even a Liberal Party Member and had to experience such nastiness from a Liberal candidate.

No wonder people do not want to get involved in political parties.

I trust that Mr. Hanson will not use his stand-over tactics now that it appears he’ll make it to the Assembly.

…It was your first time as a booth worker, and you weren’t helping a Liberal candidate?

Yet you have a history of starting many threads on RiotACT that paint you as a supporter of what once was the Kent faction? Many threads that not only paint you as a supporter of Kent et al, but smear those in the Liberal Party that actively opposed this group?

Jesus Christ, you know who I am and you know I have no animosity to your grouping, however I have to say that you people are ridiculously incompetent at trying to use RiotACT to further your own ends.

It doesn’t even matter if it was true or not. You could have just said I’m a Party member and was volunteering for Kent and this is what I saw. However because you so ridiculously attempted to hide who you were, you’ve just made yourself look like a bloody idiot.

Overheard 11:52 am 20 Oct 08

Oh, and one of the things that amuses me no end in this life filled with Manglish (Mangled English) is mixed metaphors and mixed phrases. I invented one on Friday for the people in my green choir (which I’m guessing others have used before) which is a mixture in greeting them, acknowledging that they are green and bits of lefties). So, “Dear Grenades…”

But I heard a beauty on the ABC news this morning while driving in around Lake George and catching up on all the goings on. The newsreader was talking about the Green gains and that came out as ‘grains’.

Superb.

A man who usually has his finger on the pulses.

Overheard 11:43 am 20 Oct 08

P.S. Looks like a great night; which I could have cloned myself and been concurrently there and swimming, body-surfing, boogie-boarding and swapping singing tips with my burgeoning muso daughter. Did you know (for blokes) that body-surfing in the cold waters of the Pacific can help a tenor/bass hit the high notes?!

** Damn; forgot to distract the ‘Thou Shalt Not Talk About Thy Children’ by pointing over THERE! It’s Zed sneaking into the bioethical cleaning products store to re-stock the cupboard under his sink with some commodified green credentials!!

Overheard 11:38 am 20 Oct 08

Dante said :

Rattenbury for deputy chief minister plz… anything to potentially get katy out of that role.

Ok, only got as far as #60 but that’s worth responding to.

+1. What a great idea. (Though probably Labor would have some issues considering they’ll have another six of their cronies to choose from.)

I was in a mostly mobile, radio and TV-free zone on Saturday night, so it wasn’t until I got Moruya newsagency that I saw the front cover of the Canberra Times and let out an involuntary yelp of delight. Much to newsagent dude’s consternation.

Insert snippy, short [lack of] customer service here. (Does the Sunday edition not have a ‘Relax’ insert anymore? I couldn’t find this out from Mr ‘Service is our middle name which we had removed by deed poll’ Newsagent.

Either way, I was on a renewed high and gave an extra kick along while doing an hour set at Jamberoos with Ecopella(.org)

Great days.

jimbocool 11:31 am 20 Oct 08

ns – sorry, I misunderstood your ‘two weeks’, I thought you meant it would take two weeks to conduct a countback. It will take two weeks for Elections ACT to enter all the preferences, by the end of the first week though the preference flows should be pretty clear – preferences are entered in pollbooth alphabetical order, so you can (if you’re a real nerd like me) apply the preference ratios to the un-entered booths and come up with pretty good estimate of final results. This method also has the advantage of being able to gauge the ‘last wo/man standing factor’ – which is where the final position is not necessarily decided by filling a quota but by there being no one else left in the count. This is effectively how Seselja got up last time, although he did end up with (just)a quota from Hettinger’s preferences.

sepi – you’re right, the distribution could effect more than one quota which is the main reason that overquotas are redistributed at fractional value – it’s not quite a perfect compensation, Antony Green and a mad psephologist had a big row about it on Pollbludger before agreeing that the fractional return actually decreases the value of your vote, albeit by a tiny margin.

The count on election night is bundles of paper based on first preferences. Then they are entered into the computer by about 20 data entry drones. Everyday the Commissioner publishes an interim distribution of preferences which in the first half of the week will lead to some pretty entertaining notions of who gets elected.

ns 10:48 am 20 Oct 08

jimbocool said :

ns@125 – almost right on the countback. All preferences are counted during the scrutiny phase and entered into the Elections ACT system. Should Stanhope resign the countback is done quite literally at the touch of a button. You can, however, get a pretty good estimate of where such a countback might lead by looking at how his overquota is distributed.

jimbocool, I did consider that, but I thought Elections ACT need to take the fortnight to enter everything into the system, and that’s why we wouldn’t know final numbers for two weeks? Oh well, I’m a novice at this so I’m probably wrong 🙂

Also, I went and looked at Jon’s overquota and it doesn’t help much at all. Mary Porter gets the lion’s share, and then it is split pretty evenly between the other three ALP candidates. And Mary’s numbers don’t help at all because by the time she is eliminated all the rest of them are already gone.

sepi 10:38 am 20 Oct 08

PS – and do they count them by just entering people’s votes into a computer, or do they actually move big piles of paper around? It must be a shocker to count.

sepi 10:37 am 20 Oct 08

Jimbocool – I’m still working out the preference system – is this right?

Say I vote 1 Val Jeffery, 2 Shane Ratt, 3 MArk Parton

Val doesn’t get a quota – my Whole vote goes to second choice Shane.

Shane gets 1.5 quotas, so 1/3 of my vote goes to Mark Parton.

AND if the next person gets 1.1 of a quota, then a tenth of my third of a vote goes to my fourth choice.

(I am only just getting to grips with the idea that my vote can influence more than 2 candidates quotas.)

jimbocool 8:53 am 20 Oct 08

ns@125 – almost right on the countback. All preferences are counted during the scrutiny phase and entered into the Elections ACT system. Should Stanhope resign the countback is done quite literally at the touch of a button. You can, however, get a pretty good estimate of where such a countback might lead by looking at how his overquota is distributed.

Passy 7:19 am 20 Oct 08

Oh dear. Stalinism is not socialism. The downfall of the Berlin wall was a step forward for humanity. The overthrow of the butchers of Beijing (or their children) will be a step forward for humanity.

As to the police state, what was it that German pastor (Neimeyer?) wrote?

First they came for the communists, and I did nothing. Then the socialists, and trade unionists etc etc. And I did nothing. Then they came for me.

Look, the stasi sometimes pay attention to left wing groups. Waste of money and energy as far as I can see. But when they are infiltrating such radical groups as the uniting church, you really have to wonder who is safe from them.

For example, is the ACT Light Rail group free of their interference? I doubt it, since the stasi mindset is that all groups pushing for change are a possible threat to the established order. The ACT Greens? The anti-power station in Tuggeranong group? The ALP?

Back to the election. Interesting that it is only after the election that the Canberra Times reports that Joy Burch is a close ally of John Hargreaves. maybe knowing that before the election might have influenced people not to vote for her. Funny, not only did the CT not mention it before the election, neither did Joy herself.

Something about misleading or deceptive conduct comes to mind, but unfortunately the Trade Practices law doesn’t apply to politicians per se, I can only surmise Joy’s silence indicates her shame, and the fact she would have copped a drubbing if ACT voters knew she was a John Hargreaves clone. A disgrace.

As the electorate swings to the left, the ALP swings to the right.

If i were the Greens I’d refuse to entertain the idea of right winger Andrew Barr being CM, and make that clear to the ALP from the start.

thetruth 6:13 am 20 Oct 08

I’m confused thetruth – what do you mean? Besides the fact Jon isn’t in a faction, why would the ALP want him to hand Government over to the Libs?

Thats the point – he is not aligned. But would they challenge his leadership if in the event that he then resign from the assembly on countback an independent (or other non labor) canidate got up – its better protection from a challenge than any faction.

Ie “challenge me and kick me out and send yourself to opposition”

ns 1:59 am 20 Oct 08

Gungahlin Al said :

D’oh. ns I’m totally oblivious to the ALP’s stupid faction nonsense, so totally did not get your comment…All clear now. I was looking at it totally as the JonKat spin backfiring, but your thought adds further weight to it.

I don’t get Andrew being in the right faction either. On environmental issues he is pretty strong.

Haha GA, it probably works in the factions’ favour that everyone else is oblivious to them. Sometimes I think RA tends to focus too much on the trees and can’t see the forest. (Not directed at you – just a general observation 🙂

Andrew being in the (centre)right makes sense if you consider the left in the ALP are smack bang full of crazy loonies, and also that in the ACT the ALP are generally far leftier than the ALP nationally. The right is really only “right” when it comes to economic issues. On most of the other stuff everyone (left/right/unaligned) in the ACT ALP seems pretty left – they’re all socially progressive and fairly ‘green’. The exception to this would be the crazies on the other end of the spectrum in the extreme fundamentalist right (Karin Macdonald/Tracey Mackay/Wayne Sievers).

This is actually what scares me about the Libs in the ACT. They’re all so extremely socially conservative (Zed, Giulia, Coe, Dunne, Smyth).

thetruth said :

Can someone tell me – If Jon Stanhope is challenged and looses the leadership and then resigns from the assembly – would Mark Parton (an independent) be the next cab off the rank?? If so what would the greens do then I wonder??

That’s a bit trickier to answer and right now probably completely unknown. If Jon resigns, it triggers a countback of his primary votes ONLY. So they take all his primary votes and redistribute the preferences and whoever comes out highest from those votes gets elected to fill the vacancy. I think the theory is that this way everyone who wanted Jon get their second preference candidate in instead. e.g. when Ted Quinlan resigned there was a countback of his primary votes which is how Andrew Barr got elected.

I would probably venture a guess that if Jon resigned his primary votes redistributed would probably elect another ALP candidate – either Dave Peebles or Adina Cirson. No one would know at this point, because Elections ACT will need at least another fortnight to record all the preferences.

thetruth said :

Stanhope may have the ultimate factional backing – to retire and hand Government over to the Libs (then if the ALP is to be in power it will HAVE to be in coalition with the Greens).

I’m confused thetruth – what do you mean? Besides the fact Jon isn’t in a faction, why would the ALP want him to hand Government over to the Libs?

thetruth 12:26 am 20 Oct 08

Can someone tell me – If Jon Stanhope is challenged and looses the leadership and then resigns from the assembly – would Mark Parton (an independent) be the next cab off the rank?? If so what would the greens do then I wonder??

Stanhope may have the ultimate factional backing – to retire and hand Government over to the Libs (then if the ALP is to be in power it will HAVE to be in coalition with the Greens).

circusmind 12:22 am 20 Oct 08

thetruth said :

Circusmind – while your comment is a bit “he haw”. I love that fact that someone from the socialist alternative should ask the labor party (also socialist) to call of the “Stasi” (which of course was the secret police of the communist party in East Germany – NOW THE REDS ARE SCARED OF REDS UNDER THERE BEDS!!!!!!! LMAO!!!!!!

If I was a local commie I’d be flattered by state attention. It must have been a rough 20 years since Marxism became a real laugh of an ideology, I’m surprised the security organisations would even bother these days. I don’t think North Korea and Cuba are going to be bankrolling a glorious global overthrow of capital any time soon.

thetruth 12:17 am 20 Oct 08

Circusmind – while your comment is a bit “he haw”. I love that fact that someone from the socialist alternative should ask the labor party (also socialist) to call of the “Stasi” (which of course was the secret police of the communist party in East Germany – NOW THE REDS ARE SCARED OF REDS UNDER THERE BEDS!!!!!!! LMAO!!!!!!

Pandy 12:14 am 20 Oct 08

ACT LIGHT RAIL (who?)

from your website:

goal of promoting and achieving the ideal of Light Rail as the primary mode of mass public transit in the Capital Region

ACT Light Rails accept that light rail is an expensive option, but it is essentially a political decision, not a financial decision.

Therefore: “ACTLight Rail comes from an obvious position of bias”. I stand by that fact.

7

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