[First filed: October 18, 2008 @ 18:06]
OK… so here we go…
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ABC reportage on the tele starts at 18:30.
And the team is ensconced in All Bar Nun now so feel free to come on down.
Early days but the Greens look like they’re getting the anticipated votes.
No Liberals looking like getting a quota in Ginninderra either.
ABC showing 14.5% of the vote counted -11% swing against Labor, Libs -2.1, Greens +6.3, others +6.7
Val Jeffery on .4 of a quota!
Motorists Party showing the lack of lead candidates with perfectly robson rotated votes.
Labor trail Liberals in Brindabella
Alistair Coe ahead of Vicki Dunne!
Andrew Barr ahead of Simon Corbell.
Stanhope well down in Ginninderra. Still going to get back in but with his cohorts polling very badly under half a quota real trouble out in Belco.
Matthew Watts (Liberal for Ginninderra) has joined us in the bar.
How much money could Shane Rattenbury make on Centrebet?
So on early counting the 2008 libs are underperforming the 2004 campaign, and against a government down ~11%. Brendan must be asking questions of the new team.
15.8% of votes for “other parties”, most of that will probably come back to the Liberals as the Greens managed to get most of the left wing minors to sit out.
ABC is predicting 7 Labor, 5 Liberal, 2 Green. The bar room psephologists reckon the ABC is full of it.
Norvan Vogt has joined the party.
Joy Burch, Labor for Brindabella, on .5 of a quota, there’s a surprise packet!
Jacqui Burke on a measly .2 of a quota!
Val Jeffery and Steve Pratt on the same vote right now.
Liberal Ginninderra vote is awful. the unknown Alistair Coe ahead of lead candidate Vicki Dunne with all of them relying on party line voting to have a snowball’s hope in hell.
Doszpot looking strong in Brindabella.
Molonglo: Canberra Party’s Joanne Allen: 42 (Joanne doesn’t like talking to the meeja)
Brindabella: CAP’s James Sizer: 469
Ginninderra: Eddie Sarkis: 48
The Bar Room agrees we’re seeing a massive vote of no confidence in the
circus current assembly.
Val Jeffery is ahead of Steve Pratt 2762 v. 2859
Labor coming back. Pre-poll voters more against than election day voters.
Liberals in Molonglo 1.5 quotas to Zed and NOTHING for the others. Preferences will have to hold up to bring it back to the others. So much for the cult of personality.
Current overall numbers: Labor -9.6%, Liberal -3.2%, Greens +6.1%, Others 6.7%.
ABC predicts: Labor 7, Liberal 5, Green 3.
Staggering that the best Labor can do in Brindabella is .7 quotas for John Hargreaves.
Readers note that Gallagher is rising and Stanhope’s star is falling.
Also RiotACT would like to hear of precedent where a Government has lost 10% of the vote and yet the opposition has fallen 3.4%.
Word from scrutineers says Motorist Party voters failed to distribute preferences. Ignorant idiots.
Stanhope calling it a significant result for him.
But he feels your message deeply for the next four years.
(I had time to go to the toilet and the bar and he was still talking)
Zed’s on Tele with his young kids, When is their bedtime Zed?
“Tonight the Liberal Party is back in the ACT” (Despite a 3.4% swing against).
Thinks he’ll get the same number of seats as the Labor Party.
“The community has voted for change”
Happy to work with Greens now.
ABC calling 7 Liberal 7 Labor 3 Green
It’s all coming down to second preferences. Anyone telling you otherwise is a fraud. There’s no more than 5 seats confident on primary votes.
The Morning After
Thanks to Jane for sending in a shot of the ABC typo that had us chuckling and reaching unsuccessfully for the camera all night:
And that’s all we’ll know for a while, slideshow of the fun in All Bar Nun below: