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Simon Sheikh concedes to Zed the Silent

By johnboy - 26 September 2013 76

Twitter is abuzz with the news that the Greens’ Simon Sheikh is conceding he’s been beaten for the second Senate seat on the back of Animal Justice Party preferences to the Liberals.

We hope that Senator Seselja will make efforts to broaden his base over the next three years.


UPDATE: The ABC has a report:

While the final outcome will not be formally announced until Tuesday, Mr Sheikh has now conceded.

Mr Sheikh says it was always going to be a tough battle.

“We’re very proud of the fact that we focused on the Liberal Party and trying to win that seat, and the results have been very positive despite the fact that we haven’t gotten over the line,” he said.


Further Update: Simon’s sent out this email to supporters:

A few minutes ago I rang Zed Seselja and Kate Lundy to congratulate them on their election to the Senate as our ACT representatives. While the counting won’t finish until next Tuesday, it is now clear that with the Animal Justice Party preferencing the Liberals, it isn’t possible for us to overtake Mr Seselja.

I wanted you to be the first to know because this campaign was your campaign. I’ll be making a statement to the media later this afternoon where I’ll be making one simple point: as Greens volunteers you have much to be proud of.

Even though all around the country there was a swing towards the Liberals, here in Canberra we saw the Liberal vote decrease. Zed Seselja has not achieved the ‘quota’ he needed to win the seat in his own right, and instead will need to rely on preferences to win.

In the areas of Canberra where we door knocked and focussed our efforts, there was an even larger swing against the Liberals. There’s no doubt in my mind that this is thanks to your efforts.

Thank you.

I know that many of you will be disappointed in this outcome but I take solace in the knowledge that we had no other choice but to work as hard as we did. Had we been successful, adding an extra Greens Senator would have put us in a stronger position in the Senate to protect the carbon price and other policies that we’ve fought so hard for.

The first pages of the story of the Abbott Government may have been written but the last few haven’t. I hope you’ll continue to campaign on the issues that brought us together because, as we all know, our politicians will only ever soar as high as we demand.

Anna and I are looking forward to continuing to be a part of the formidable ACT Greens team that you have built and I hope we’ll be able to count on your support again in the future.

With deepest thanks,

Simon

PS: I know many of you will want to stay involved in building a more caring Australia, even though the election is over. We’re holding a special event for Greens supporters next Thursday October 3rd to talk about what campaigns we can run over the next 2 years, and to make sure Abbott doesn’t roll back everything we’ve fought so hard for. I’d love to see you there. You can RSVP here: http://www.simonsheikh.com/next_steps

What’s Your opinion?


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Simon Sheikh concedes to Zed the Silent
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Diggety 7:41 am 05 Oct 13

chewy14 said :

Diggety said :

It takes a very dependant and immature human to vote for a Socialist, therefore IMO it’s best we get a Lib doing nothing than a Green doing anything.

*BUT* the Libs promised more freedom of speech, movement, liberty, opportunity and a roll back of the Nanny State – one of the reasons I voted for the them. Don’t like the Libs or TA? Good – this is what you do – hold them to these sets of principles and promises and see if they can live up to their stated ideals.

If not, I’ll gladly join the retarded (Left) chorus of getting them out of office.

Except for the fact that the Liberals actually went to the election with their own “socialist” policies. No party wants to end the entitlement gravy train.

Couldn’t agree more!

pepmeup 4:46 pm 01 Oct 13

Garfield said :

@pepmeup, you’re only factoring in about 1.8% of under the line votes going to Zed with the theoretical distribution of BTA & Sex Party votes. Looking at the under the line preferences that went to Zed & Simon (as opposed to still sitting with BTA & Sex Party at the end), Zed was getting 36-43% of them. At that ratio, worst case for Zed is still about 6200 above quota. I call it a 2.5% margin. Definitely still a marginal seat.

fair call,

also if you take away the AJP and SPP above the line preferences that were both really protest preferences it is a very small margin.

I Hope it makes Zed work hard for all us Canberrans =)

Garfield 4:09 pm 01 Oct 13

@pepmeup, you’re only factoring in about 1.8% of under the line votes going to Zed with the theoretical distribution of BTA & Sex Party votes. Looking at the under the line preferences that went to Zed & Simon (as opposed to still sitting with BTA & Sex Party at the end), Zed was getting 36-43% of them. At that ratio, worst case for Zed is still about 6200 above quota. I call it a 2.5% margin. Definitely still a marginal seat.

pepmeup 3:12 pm 01 Oct 13

looking at the final numbers in the count for second senate spot, it looks like Zed won by about 3656 votes,

Given the parties still left were,
sex party 14,155 votes most if which would go to Simon with above the line preferences

Bullet train with 4882 votes.
910 votes they got from Rise up that would go to Zed when they were eliminated
and
2323 votes from Animal justice that would be passed on to Zed at the same time.

Zeds total reached 82,659 after the elimination of the Palmer party which gave him 421 more votes than he needed for quota.

hope that makes some sense.

At this stage of counting that is a victory of about 1.48%

Garfield 3:01 pm 01 Oct 13

pepmeup said :

checking the aec website on the distribution of preferences for the ACT election

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/External/SenateStateDop-17496-ACT.pdf

a couple of things seemed interesting to me:

1, when Nash was excluded from the count (count 29) there was a huge leakage of votes out of the party. of her 1737, which most were 1st preference (1647) only 1094 went straight to Zed.

2, it took 39 counts to get a result, with labour and the greens having such a hard time nationally, it is strange that 39 counts were needed to elect Zed as our second senator. It is a worrying sign if it is repeated in three years when the libs will probably be have a national flow against them.

Still congratulations Mr Seslja, I hope you work hard for Canberra over the next three years, I think you will need to to hold the seat for the liberals.

By my rough estimates, if the remaining votes held by the Bullet Train and Sex Parties had been distributed Zed would have ended up 6-7000 votes in front of the quota. I dont think he can rely on the AJP above the line votes next time, so that takes the notional margin down to 4-5000 votes. That would mean the Greens need a swing of 1.8-2.0% against him next time to win it.

Factors that come into play next time would be how much the Coalition’s cuts hurt Canberra, whether people forget the way he got the senate position, how much work he does in he meantime and the strength of the next local campaign. I would suggest that if he works hard and the next election is in 2016 he shouldn’t have any problems. If the senate proves unworkable and we go back to the polls next year he would face a difficult election (but I don’t think that would happen without changes to the way senate voting works as it would just further fragment the senate based on this year’s results with so many micro parties getting representation).

pepmeup 2:39 pm 01 Oct 13

checking the aec website on the distribution of preferences for the ACT election

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/External/SenateStateDop-17496-ACT.pdf

a couple of things seemed interesting to me:

1, when Nash was excluded from the count (count 29) there was a huge leakage of votes out of the party. of her 1737, which most were 1st preference (1647) only 1094 went straight to Zed.

2, it took 39 counts to get a result, with labour and the greens having such a hard time nationally, it is strange that 39 counts were needed to elect Zed as our second senator. It is a worrying sign if it is repeated in three years when the libs will probably be have a national flow against them.

Still congratulations Mr Seslja, I hope you work hard for Canberra over the next three years, I think you will need to to hold the seat for the liberals.

chewy14 10:59 am 29 Sep 13

shauno said :

IrishPete said :

shauno said :

Good the last thing we needed was another Green in the Senate. On another note I see the LNP turned back the first boat today well done guys. Instead of HMAS Ballarat being used as a Taxi they handed over the Illegals to the Indonesians. Funny how Labor could never manage to do that.

If this is a joke, it’s a bad one. Two boats have arrived since the government was sworn in. http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-politics/residents-report-asylum-seeker-boat-arrival-on-christmas-island-20130926-2ugnr.html

The incident you describe is not being described as a “turn back” even by the Australian government. It’s being described a a rescue, in Indonesian waters. Now maybe they are playing diplomacy, suddenly and belatedly, but I don’t think that’s the whole story.

I think there have been three rescues this week, the most recent (after you posted) with significant loss of life. As I heard about it on the radio this morning, I wondered about three boats in one week incapable of making the journey – that’s actually not far off what lots of people predicted would happen when “turn back the boats” came in – boats would be disabled or scuttled.

Perhaps the smugglers are actually not willing to risk a “good” boat and are instead sending dodgy ones, but so far they haven’t got out of Indonesian waters so they haven’t yet been able to test the Australia Government’s bravado.

IP

What is signifacant about this is the fact the Indonesians picked them up instead of the Navy acting like a Taxi service it shows some negotiations have been going well. The couple of Indo politicians making noise the last few days were doing it for their own constituents it had nothing to do with the main issues. The real work is behind the scenes at high government level and the LNP has always worked well with the Indonesians as well as the rest of the countries in the region.

The handover of asylum seekers that has happened in the last few days is a result of an agreement the previous Labor government made with the Indonesians.

Nothing to do with ‘turning back the boats’ or any negotiations by the new LNP government.

IrishPete 4:43 am 29 Sep 13

shauno said :

IrishPete said :

shauno said :

What is signifacant about this is the fact the Indonesians picked them up instead of the Navy acting like a Taxi service it shows some negotiations have been going well. The couple of Indo politicians making noise the last few days were doing it for their own constituents it had nothing to do with the main issues. The real work is behind the scenes at high government level and the LNP has always worked well with the Indonesians as well as the rest of the countries in the region.

You must be reading different news from me – the news I read was the navy picked them up and acted as a taxi service, as you describe it.

IP

Wrong mate they handed them over to the Indonesian coast guard instead of ferrying them to Christmas Island like in the past.

The Indonesians dont want to lose face regarding this. Its the way it is in Asia and they especially dont want to lose face in front of their constituents so all the ground that they give will be behind closed doors and part of that deal will be very little news released by the Australian government as well. Its call diplomacy which Labor doesn’t know anything about.

News is still emerging on these stories but the common theme is that they were all rescues, not “interceptions” or stopping or turning back.

I didn’t click that you meant “taxi service to Australia” (And ow you are calling it ferrying). That isn’t what Australian navy and customs have done before. If the boat is safe, they escort them, sometimes tow them, to shore. If it’s not safe they transfer them on board the navy/customs vessel.

It is hard to know because Morrison has gagged the department, but most or all of the incidents in the last week have ben rescues that Australia has undertaken at Indonesia’s request, off boats that were capsized, sinking, or broken up, which is very different to what you are describing. There might be some sneakiness going on, e.g. “we will only rescue them if we can return them to you” but that’s just bluff which the Indonesians could call at any time.

It still looks most likely to me that the boats now being sent are less seaworthy than they were a few weeks ago.

Also, something that struck me reading the detailed ABC reporting – a result of stopping/turning back will be that the crew won’t be arrested (they can’t be) and so there will be no legal consequences for the smugglers. They won’t even lose their boats. Yep, if they eventually stop then the problem goes away, but in the meantime the Abbott Government is letting people smugglers away with manslaughter, as people drown at sea. But the Rabid Right has never been concerned about corporate murder.

IP

shauno 5:54 pm 28 Sep 13

IrishPete said :

shauno said :

What is signifacant about this is the fact the Indonesians picked them up instead of the Navy acting like a Taxi service it shows some negotiations have been going well. The couple of Indo politicians making noise the last few days were doing it for their own constituents it had nothing to do with the main issues. The real work is behind the scenes at high government level and the LNP has always worked well with the Indonesians as well as the rest of the countries in the region.

You must be reading different news from me – the news I read was the navy picked them up and acted as a taxi service, as you describe it.

IP

Wrong mate they handed them over to the Indonesian coast guard instead of ferrying them to Christmas Island like in the past.

The Indonesians dont want to lose face regarding this. Its the way it is in Asia and they especially dont want to lose face in front of their constituents so all the ground that they give will be behind closed doors and part of that deal will be very little news released by the Australian government as well. Its call diplomacy which Labor doesn’t know anything about.

IrishPete 5:36 pm 28 Sep 13

shauno said :

What is signifacant about this is the fact the Indonesians picked them up instead of the Navy acting like a Taxi service it shows some negotiations have been going well. The couple of Indo politicians making noise the last few days were doing it for their own constituents it had nothing to do with the main issues. The real work is behind the scenes at high government level and the LNP has always worked well with the Indonesians as well as the rest of the countries in the region.

You must be reading different news from me – the news I read was the navy picked them up and acted as a taxi service, as you describe it.

IP

shauno 4:31 pm 28 Sep 13

IrishPete said :

shauno said :

Good the last thing we needed was another Green in the Senate. On another note I see the LNP turned back the first boat today well done guys. Instead of HMAS Ballarat being used as a Taxi they handed over the Illegals to the Indonesians. Funny how Labor could never manage to do that.

If this is a joke, it’s a bad one. Two boats have arrived since the government was sworn in. http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-politics/residents-report-asylum-seeker-boat-arrival-on-christmas-island-20130926-2ugnr.html

The incident you describe is not being described as a “turn back” even by the Australian government. It’s being described a a rescue, in Indonesian waters. Now maybe they are playing diplomacy, suddenly and belatedly, but I don’t think that’s the whole story.

I think there have been three rescues this week, the most recent (after you posted) with significant loss of life. As I heard about it on the radio this morning, I wondered about three boats in one week incapable of making the journey – that’s actually not far off what lots of people predicted would happen when “turn back the boats” came in – boats would be disabled or scuttled.

Perhaps the smugglers are actually not willing to risk a “good” boat and are instead sending dodgy ones, but so far they haven’t got out of Indonesian waters so they haven’t yet been able to test the Australia Government’s bravado.

IP

What is signifacant about this is the fact the Indonesians picked them up instead of the Navy acting like a Taxi service it shows some negotiations have been going well. The couple of Indo politicians making noise the last few days were doing it for their own constituents it had nothing to do with the main issues. The real work is behind the scenes at high government level and the LNP has always worked well with the Indonesians as well as the rest of the countries in the region.

miz 12:55 pm 28 Sep 13

” . . . or if we get our third House of Reps seat back.” Surely we have the population for this by now.

IrishPete 9:50 am 28 Sep 13

Diggety said :

It takes a very dependant and immature human to vote for a Socialist, therefore IMO it’s best we get a Lib doing nothing than a Green doing anything.

*BUT* the Libs promised more freedom of speech, movement, liberty, opportunity and a roll back of the Nanny State – one of the reasons I voted for the them. Don’t like the Libs or TA? Good – this is what you do – hold them to these sets of principles and promises and see if they can live up to their stated ideals.

If not, I’ll gladly join the retarded (Left) chorus of getting them out of office.

This has to be on of the least intelligent posts I have ever read. Use of the word “retarded” as an insult just caps if off.

Incidentally, I can’t recall any of the promises you say the Liberals made – freedom of speech? really? Shall I mention Wikileaks just as one example? Freedom of movement? Not for asylum seekers seeking safety. Liberty? I can’t think what “promising liberty” might mean given we already live in a free democracy, though their opposition to marriage equality, and human rights generally, doesn’t sound like much of a commitment to liberty. Opportunity? You must be joking – jobs for the boys, and subsidies and tax breaks for the wealthy including corporates. Rollback of the nanny state? Does that include middle class welfare? They pioneered it and have no intention of getting rid of it, because it is subsidies for the well off.

I think you may have confused the Liberal Party (who you may not have noticed cannot govern on their own, they have to be in coalition with the Nationals) with the Tea Party. It’s an easy mistake to make, admittedly.

IP

p.s. I apologise to all other readers for my rare departure from playing the ball rather than the wo/man – but in my defence, Your Honour, I was provoked.

chewy14 9:20 am 28 Sep 13

Diggety said :

It takes a very dependant and immature human to vote for a Socialist, therefore IMO it’s best we get a Lib doing nothing than a Green doing anything.

*BUT* the Libs promised more freedom of speech, movement, liberty, opportunity and a roll back of the Nanny State – one of the reasons I voted for the them. Don’t like the Libs or TA? Good – this is what you do – hold them to these sets of principles and promises and see if they can live up to their stated ideals.

If not, I’ll gladly join the retarded (Left) chorus of getting them out of office.

Except for the fact that the Liberals actually went to the election with their own “socialist” policies. No party wants to end the entitlement gravy train.

IrishPete 7:40 am 28 Sep 13

shauno said :

Good the last thing we needed was another Green in the Senate. On another note I see the LNP turned back the first boat today well done guys. Instead of HMAS Ballarat being used as a Taxi they handed over the Illegals to the Indonesians. Funny how Labor could never manage to do that.

If this is a joke, it’s a bad one. Two boats have arrived since the government was sworn in. http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-politics/residents-report-asylum-seeker-boat-arrival-on-christmas-island-20130926-2ugnr.html

The incident you describe is not being described as a “turn back” even by the Australian government. It’s being described a a rescue, in Indonesian waters. Now maybe they are playing diplomacy, suddenly and belatedly, but I don’t think that’s the whole story.

I think there have been three rescues this week, the most recent (after you posted) with significant loss of life. As I heard about it on the radio this morning, I wondered about three boats in one week incapable of making the journey – that’s actually not far off what lots of people predicted would happen when “turn back the boats” came in – boats would be disabled or scuttled.

Perhaps the smugglers are actually not willing to risk a “good” boat and are instead sending dodgy ones, but so far they haven’t got out of Indonesian waters so they haven’t yet been able to test the Australia Government’s bravado.

IP

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