'The electorate is in a grumbly mood': Experts have their say on the ACT election outcome

There have been no serious opinion polls on the outcome of the ACT election and, unusually, online betting agencies don’t even have a market for it.

This makes predicting who might win difficult, even though the same side of politics has been in government since 2001.

But that didn’t stop us from reaching out to experts and asking them to look into their crystal ball.

‘Best chance’ for Liberals in years

University of Canberra political scientist Dr Michael De Percy says any election predictions are just “guesses” without polling, but feels the Canberra Liberals could have their “best chance in 23 years” of being able to form a government, perhaps with the support of independents.

“The change of leadership for the Canberra Liberals to a moderate Elizabeth Lee makes it more possible, if not probable, to have a good showing in this election,” he said.

“We have two female leaders of the Liberals, which is not the case for Labor or the Greens, that may be important for some.

“Labor and Greens have been in power for some time, but people are not really happy. We have a cost-of-living crisis.

“If people are looking for change, there’s a real alternative there that wasn’t there at previous elections. The conservative nature of the Liberal leadership previously just wasn’t popular for an ACT electorate.

“If there were any chance of the Canberra Liberals to get up, it would be now.”

Massive swing needed for Labor to lose seats

Veteran Australian National University political commentator Professor John Warhurst agrees the Liberals have a better chance than they’ve had in the past but wouldn’t bet on a change.

“It’s all speculation [without polls], I don’t rule out a Liberal victory, but the most likely outcome is the government will be returned. They might lose some skin though,” he said.

“The electorate is in a grumbly mood. There may be a lot of Labor voters who are considering change. Whether they’ll make the jump and whether they’ll be enough of them to make a difference remains to be seen.”

At present, Labor holds 10 seats in the 25-seat Legislative Assembly and forms government with the Greens, who hold six seats. The Canberra Liberals in opposition hold the remaining nine seats.

ABC election guru Antony Green has written on his blog that it would take a “serious collapse” in Labor’s support for it to lose seats, given their consistent support across Canberra and given the nature of ACT’s electoral system.

Labor got 38 per cent of the vote Canberra-wide in 2020 and currently has two members elected in each of the five electorates. A party generally gets two members elected with between 28 and 40 per cent of the vote. Hence, Labor’s vote could fall by five or six per cent without the party losing any seats.

“I think what Antony Green says makes sense. If Labor wins 10 seats, if you add the likelihood the Greens will win at least three, then that’s the Labor-Greens majority again,” Professor Warhurst said.

Greens are the most vulnerable party

Both Professor Warhurst and Dr De Percy agree that the Greens may be the most vulnerable party in this election, given that they surged in 2020 and now face even more competition from a host of left-leaning independents.

“Of the three major parties, a lot is hanging on their future. Most people suggest that they’re vulnerable down south, perhaps in Brindabella, as is their second seat in Kurrajong,” Professor Warhurst said.

“I think going backwards by [just] one seat would be a terrific result for the Greens given they did surge at the last election.”

Dr De Percy said: “I’d see the Greens as the most vulnerable at this election. There’s a lot of public servants who would have been traditional Labor voters who vote for the Greens as a way to keep voters in check … but with the federal Greens being so radical, particularly in regards to national security and other issues … people might see them as having shown their true colours and being detrimental to Labor.”

Uphill battle for independents

The University of Canberra lecturer doesn’t see a 2022 federal election-style ‘Teal wave’ happening at this Saturday’s poll either.

“There’s been a lot of speculation about independents, but I’m not convinced. It’s possible that someone well-known like Fiona Carrick [in Murrumbidgee] might get up… but I just don’t think they are going to have the cut through … if you look at the corflutes, I’m hardly seeing any independents. Their presence is shallow,” Dr De Percy said.

Professor Warhurst says the independents are facing a “hard slog”.

“It’s hard because of the electoral system and there’s no Scott Morrison or Zed Seselja to pitch against,” he said.

But at the end of the day, both experts wanted it on the record that it’s all just speculation in the absence of good data.

“I tend to follow what [veteran political commentator] Gerard Henderson says: ‘You shouldn’t make predictions, particularly about the future’,” Dr De Percy said.