Warmer nights and more rainfall expected this summer, as ACT Chief Medical Officer sounds warning

Hot on the heels of a “severe heatwave” in NSW, the Bureau of Meteorology is predicting higher-than-average nighttime temperatures and rainfall over the next three months, according to its long-range forecast for summer.

The BOM says spring this year was “much warmer than usual”, and it looks like the trend is set to continue.

Summer is likely to be warmer than average across most of the country, both in terms of maximum daytime temperatures but especially for minimum nighttime temperatures.

More than usual, summer rainfall is also likely in many parts of the country, particularly in December.

“Most of the country is more likely to have a typical range of January rainfall, although parts of eastern NSW and south-east Queensland may see above average rainfall,” the BOM says.

Similarly, “large parts” of NSW are predicted to be warmer this summer, although parts around the Central, Southern and Northern Tablelands will have some reprieve with “more milder temperatures”.

The ACT is expected to see temperatures typical of summer.

“However, warmer nighttime temperatures are very likely across both NSW and the ACT.”

Most of NSW and the ACT are also expected to be wetter than usual, especially in December, while the January forecast signals the chance for above-average rainfall along the eastern seaboard.

In recent decades, this has translated to between 200 and 600 mm of rain along most of eastern NSW, with western and central NSW receiving between 50 and 200 mm.

Earlier this week, the national council for fire and emergency services, AFAC, also released its ‘Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Summer 2024’, which shows an “an increased risk of fire for large areas of Australia”.

In NSW, the map singles out the area between Griffith and Mildura as carrying “increased risk”, as well as the area above Dubbo and Cobar.

AFAC CEO Rob Webb said the the dry winter and spring period across southern Australia means the landscape is “well primed” for bushfires.

“Communities should be ready for bushfires and have a plan in place,” he said.

“We hope the rains come, but it makes sense to plan as if they don’t.”

In what the BOM described as “severe heatwave conditions”, Sydney temperatures climbed as high as 39 degrees Celsius on Wednesday afternoon, prompting NSW Premier Chris Minns to ask residents to “not run your dishwasher, not run your washing machine” to prevent the electricity grid from being overstrained.

NSW energy minister Penny Sharpe said state, federal and ACT Government agencies, water utilities, and councils have also been asked to cut electricity use where possible.

“Agencies will do this by increasing the set point of air conditioning where safe and feasible, closing blinds, turning off non-essential lighting and turning off equipment when not in use,” she said.

ACT Chief Medical Officer Kerryn Coleman issued a call for residents to be careful this summer, especially the elderly and ethnic minorities, as the government prepares to release its “summer safety messages”.

“I’m sure we’ve all felt the impacts of the heat this week … We need to really look out for those people who are at greater risk of heat-related illnesses,” she said.

“We’re talking about really young children and babies, those people who are older over age 65, and particularly pregnant people and people who are breastfeeding.

“But certainly ethnic minorities who might come from cultures where the sun doesn’t have so much bearing in terms of their upbringing and knowledge.

“So we need to … have some really good campaigns out there and some material around how to be sun smart, and some of that will certainly be directed towards some of those ethnic minorities and older communities.”

Dr Coleman added that she had been working with ACT Health to “understand whether the IV fluid shortage will have an impact”.

“Our advice at the moment is that it won’t and that we’ve actually got adequate IV fluids to be able to continue to supply those people who become critically unwell and need rehydration.

“But the important thing is to remind everyone that that’s too late. We need you to actually stay hydrated and not become so unwell that you need to go to the hospital.”

Visit the ACT Government website for more information on how to “stay well this summer”.