3 July 2012

What would a Liberal Government look like in the ACT?

| johnboy
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Let us, for a moment engage in a thought exercise as to what it would mean for Canberra if the Liberals were to form Government after the October election?

Firstly how would this come about? Labor is short of high profile candidates in both Ginninderra and Brindabella with the retirement of the very popular Jon Stanhope and John Hargreaves.

To attack this weakness the Liberals are running a full court press down south (Brindabella) with Brendan Smyth and Zed Seselja both running and the highly respected Val Jeffery a chance to hoover up the wrinkly votes (get a better wooly jumper this time around Val).

Out Belco way (Ginninderra) the Liberals are hoping Coe and Dunne can hold their own (we’re unconvinced the plummy painfully young Coe is connecting with West Belconnen working families as he’d hope, but let’s play it out for the hypothetical OK?).

From there they’re hoping the iconic Chic Henry can hive off the unthinking Labor base with a Summernats vote. It could happen.

Suddenly the Liberals are effectively in six seats before Molonglo’s bevy of seven seats is considered.

Losing Zed to Brindabella won’t help them, but it’s hard to see the Green vote doing anything but going down to single seat representation.

Three seats to the Liberals in Molonglo (up one from the historic lows of 2008) is nine Liberal seats. In a 17 seat Assembly.

Majority Government Liberal?

It’s a possibility.

Faced with a 9 seat voting block including the Motorists Party you might even see the Greens cutting a deal to get a seat at the big table (and hang onto the speakership).

And then what?

One could imagine they will try and be more developer friendly than their predecessors, but Labor in the ACT have been far from unfriendly to developers. With Canberra real estate coming off the boil in the forseeable future that’s likely to be moot.

There seem to be a disproportionate of Catholics in Liberal ranks, so expect social policy to lean that way.

But before there is wailing and gnashing of teeth I would suggest we think a bit more about this.

The ACT’s public service and institutions are pretty well stacked with at best fellow travellers and in a lot of cases movers and shakers within Labor politics.

The Liberals don’t have anything like the cadre to purge those institutions and make more friendly replacements. They don’t have that many mates here in Canberra, and with State Governments Liberal across the nation (and anticipated federally) there’s no talent to bus in from interstate.

So we’d have an incoming government after 12 years in the wilderness asking a lot of pointed questions of institutions it’s not in a position to fully takeover.

We’d also have a public service not particularly minded to help out the Government in the event of any dodginess on their part.

Include a reliance on Chic Henry who doesn’t appear likely to want to be a tory stooge and we could get a pretty functional government willing to turn over rocks and shine lights into dark corners of the ACT if only to embarrass their enemies, and unable to create too many dark corners of their own.

It’s worth thinking about.

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Ryoma said :

For example, if they offered any of the following;
– an ACT income-tax free zone (would need agreement of the Feds)
– complete removal of OH&S, EEO, and environmental legislation
– removal of payroll tax
– privatisation of all of ACTEW-AGL (yes, it’s half done, but I mean all of it) and ACTION, along with other stuff
– completely open slather on planning; heights, architectural styles and zoning
– liberal gun and drug laws (i.e people to make their own decisions on these things
– the raising of ACT government bonds to pay for infrastructure development

Pretty much everything on that list would be what Sir Humphrey would describe as “very courageous”. Better still adopt them all and absolutely no one will vote for you. Democracy is about the art of the possible and particularly minority government. Jumping to one extreme is going to be a big ask, you have to get your colleagues to agree with you first, win over public support, and then somehow get it through parliament.

Hi all

It is a very interesting thing to think through. I definitely agree with the idea of governments needing to be changed every few years, both to limit the potential for corruption, and to ensure that fresh blood enters upon both sides of the fence.

It may well be true that the Libs do not do a good job, and may do pretty badly. But to be fair, how on earth does anyone know what a party (any party!) is capable of until it is actually in place?

And given that Canberra appears to be a centre-left sort of place, where half the population are public servants, what would a Liberal government gain by actually coming to an election with either conservative or truly libertarian policies?

For example, if they offered any of the following;
– an ACT income-tax free zone (would need agreement of the Feds)
– complete removal of OH&S, EEO, and environmental legislation
– removal of payroll tax
– privatisation of all of ACTEW-AGL (yes, it’s half done, but I mean all of it) and ACTION, along with other stuff
– completely open slather on planning; heights, architectural styles and zoning
– liberal gun and drug laws (i.e people to make their own decisions on these things
– the raising of ACT government bonds to pay for instrastructure development

I am not suggesting I agree with any of these things, or even that any of them are a good idea, but to make the point that in a more diverse political environment, some of these things might arise.

We get what we deserve with our major parties because this diversity does not exist here in the ACT. If we looked at this on a “colour scale” (bear with me), where being libertarian is dark blue, the Libs are a very pale blue, the ALP a pale pink, and the Greens magenta-coloured.

But because that set of opinions is not raised locally, we get a narrow set of options by people of all three parties so as not to “frighten the horses”. As a result, our economy is not as vibratn as Singapore (another city state), but nor do we have the excellent public services offered in Scandinavia – in both cases for a variety of reasons.

So, how would Canberrans react if we actually did get a Liberal (or another) party coming in with some actual visionary ideas – or at least ones that were well beyond what we are used to hearing? I think (sadly) that a common public servant reaction would be – “aaargh, change is coming, that’s what I moved to Canberra to avoid – aaargh, the sky is falling”! Of course not all public servants would think that way, but it appears to me that that is at least part of why we have a tired old government past its use-by date still in power.

Let the flaming begin! 🙂

Tetranitrate said :

Bingo, this government is so hopelessly arrogant, corrupt and out of touch that it simply needs to go, if only so we can re-elect a renewed labor government in 4 years time.

“Arrogant” and “out of touch” are matters of opinion, but “corrupt” is a pretty serious charge – do you have anything that would back that up?

Without an ICAC or a royal commission corruption is almost impossible to prove.

But corruption is universal, it’s just a matter or degree and if it’s being pushed back against.

Bingo, this government is so hopelessly arrogant, corrupt and out of touch that it simply needs to go, if only so we can re-elect a renewed labor government in 4 years time.

This.

+1.

Tetranitrate12:19 am 05 Jul 12

housebound said :

As much as the plastic bag ban is a bit of a feelgood, token measure, I don’t really care either way.

But for all those who think the sky would fall in if the unchallenged rule of our current overlords were to fail – just look at the issues with ACT health statistics and ask yourself how widespread those competency/honesty issues are in a seriously politicised ACT public service.

Even if you don’t like one side of politics or the other, a clean-out every now and again is something a society needs. Otherwise you end up like Queensland and NSW, where things get so bad that a landslide election not only sees a change in government, but wipes out the former ruling party to a point where it is only marginally viable as an opposition.

Far better to follow the recent Victorian examples (change to Bracks and then, more recently, change to the libs) and see a change of government elected on slim margins. Governments behave so much better if they think there’s a chance they’ll not be re-elected.

Of course, if the Libs did get in in the ACT, I would be amongst the first to want to see them go about mid-way through their second term, and that would be only if they didn’t do worse than this mob.

Bingo, this government is so hopelessly arrogant, corrupt and out of touch that it simply needs to go, if only so we can re-elect a renewed labor government in 4 years time.

I predict 8 libs, 6 labor and 3 greens so not change in government. Libs need to run a time for a change motto and stop the negative focus oh nd bring back the crackers.

If the local Libs are the answer, the question is stupid. It is difficult to see any of them managing their own offices well, and impossible to contemplate that they would grow into Ministers. Labor is a perennial disappointment, but seems to have a few people who could probably obtain employment outside the political sphere if they had to. The Greens are what they are and that is not very much. But the Libs? Young Alistair could use his smarm to sell over-priced cars or suits. Ms Dunne could be assistant manager of a volunteer tuckshop. Mr Doszpot and Mr Smith may need sympathetic employers. Mr Seselja and Mr Hanson I see as unsuccessful real estate agents or clientless consultants.

As much as the plastic bag ban is a bit of a feelgood, token measure, I don’t really care either way.

But for all those who think the sky would fall in if the unchallenged rule of our current overlords were to fail – just look at the issues with ACT health statistics and ask yourself how widespread those competency/honesty issues are in a seriously politicised ACT public service.

Even if you don’t like one side of politics or the other, a clean-out every now and again is something a society needs. Otherwise you end up like Queensland and NSW, where things get so bad that a landslide election not only sees a change in government, but wipes out the former ruling party to a point where it is only marginally viable as an opposition.

Far better to follow the recent Victorian examples (change to Bracks and then, more recently, change to the libs) and see a change of government elected on slim margins. Governments behave so much better if they think there’s a chance they’ll not be re-elected.

Of course, if the Libs did get in in the ACT, I would be amongst the first to want to see them go about mid-way through their second term, and that would be only if they didn’t do worse than this mob.

Mr Gillespie5:56 pm 04 Jul 12

Will the Libs repeal that imbeclic “shopping bag ban” like how the Federal Libs are promising to repeal the Carbon Tax if elected?

Zed, please include in your campaign advertising you will REPEAL THE BAG BAN and I assure you, you will have an even better chance of getting into office.

The only seat that seems in play is the second Molongolo greenie, while the rest may change jockeys they will not change persuasion.

ALP may lose a few votes in territory election in Weston Creek due to the lack of planned infrastructure for Molonglo and expected congestion around Cooleman Ct and in traffic. Caught Simon Corbell on Stateline the other week evading questions about ‘lessons learned from Gunghalin’ being repeated in new sub-division of Molonglo with a mealy reply along lines of ‘governments always learn from projects’. Evidently not this time. One road in/out just doesn’t cut it when planning for major uban projects.

Honestly, they all suck. I’ve been very disappointed with Labor and Greens, who usually take my vote. Liberal would probably not manage to do any better. I have no idea who to vote for, I wish we had a new party!

p1 said :

But you can use it as a paper plane within the polling place. In fact, you can cast a valid vote, then fold that into a plane…

Only if you “without delay…fold the ballot paper so as to conceal the vote and put it in a ballot box at the polling place”

and don’t forget to make the noise as it crashes into the box.

davo101 said :

johnboy said :

After that you can make a paper aeroplane out of it if you’re so inclined.

-1
Please don’t. You’re not allowed to remove the ballet paper from the polling station.

But you can use it as a paper plane within the polling place. In fact, you can cast a valid vote, then fold that into a plane…

shirty_bear said :

Duffbowl said :

Face facts: none of the three sets of passengers of the red, blue or green little buses are capable of doing much else than licking the windows

Splendidly put.
Fact remains that the strongest thing in favour of Labor (both locally and federally) is the dreadfulness of the Libs.

bitzermaloney said :

Better still… ballot papers should have a ‘None of the Above” option. If “None of the Above” gets the requried number of votes to take a seat, then that seat remains empty until the next election. At the very least is would eliminate polititians being voted on on the the popularity of another in their party.

Alternately, voting should be made voluntary giving the voter the democratic right to abstain (either through protest or ignorance).

“None of the Above” is a terrific idea.
Non-compulsory voting is a shockingly bad idea; it gives the vocal minority a leg-up. Compelling the silent/lazy majority to have their say is crucially important to retaining balance. And you can still go informal if you must.

There is nothing in favour of Labor federally. No opposition would do worse than the federal government are currently doing.

Locally, I agree with you.

Duffbowl said :

Face facts: none of the three sets of passengers of the red, blue or green little buses are capable of doing much else than licking the windows

Splendidly put.
Fact remains that the strongest thing in favour of Labor (both locally and federally) is the dreadfulness of the Libs.

bitzermaloney said :

Better still… ballot papers should have a ‘None of the Above” option. If “None of the Above” gets the requried number of votes to take a seat, then that seat remains empty until the next election. At the very least is would eliminate polititians being voted on on the the popularity of another in their party.

Alternately, voting should be made voluntary giving the voter the democratic right to abstain (either through protest or ignorance).

“None of the Above” is a terrific idea.
Non-compulsory voting is a shockingly bad idea; it gives the vocal minority a leg-up. Compelling the silent/lazy majority to have their say is crucially important to retaining balance. And you can still go informal if you must.

SnapperJack said :

nobody said :

SnapperJack said :

Now that climate change has been exposed as an expensive con

“We simply must do everything we can in our power to slow down global warming before it is too late… The science is clear. The global warming debate is over.”
Arnold Schwarzenegger, bill signing ceremony for California’s strict anti-emissions law, September 26, 2006.

“Winning the Mr Universe was wonderful! It is like cumming!”
Arnold Schwarzenegger between puffs on a joint, Pumping Iron, 1975.

Yes, Arny is an amazing larger than life character. But seriously, your comment on Climate Change is a decade out of date. If you have a genuine interest, have a look at these figures from NASA.
http://climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/

johnboy said :

You have the right to abstain. You’re just required to attend the polling place and take your ballot.

+1

johnboy said :

After that you can make a paper aeroplane out of it if you’re so inclined.

-1
Please don’t. You’re not allowed to remove the ballet paper from the polling station. Just strike across the paper to indicate it’s spoiled, fold it neatly, place it in the ballet box, and move on with the rest of your day. There is no need to annoy the poll workers; they didn’t legislate compulsory attendance to elections.

bitzermaloney9:49 am 04 Jul 12

Duffbowl said :

Ahhh, slings and arrows….

Face facts: none of the three sets of passengers of the red, blue or green little buses are capable of doing much else than licking the windows. It’s a choice of dumb, dumber and dumbest, with the only differentiation being the ideology of the party supporter.

I have a dream that, one day, we will have politicians that are competent, accountable, and worthy of a vote. Until then, it’s a matter of choosing the least bad. Donkey anyone?

Agree in the most part, but not the solution. Donkey vote is numbering 1, 2, 3, etc. down the form and rewards those who happen to be listed first on the ballot paper. Numbering ALL candidate the same number (say “9”) which results in an invalid vote is a much better protest vote.

Better still… ballot papers should have a ‘None of the Above” option. If “None of the Above” gets the requried number of votes to take a seat, then that seat remains empty until the next election. At the very least is would eliminate polititians being voted on on the the popularity of another in their party.

Alternately, voting should be made voluntary giving the voter the democratic right to abstain (either through protest or ignorance).

You have the right to abstain. You’re just required to attend the polling place and take your ballot. After that you can make a paper aeroplane out of it if you’re so inclined.

bitzermaloney9:41 am 04 Jul 12

If the Carnell grubbymint is anything to go by, more Left than Labor, though with some outsoutrcing tendancies (and roadside art).

Ahhh, slings and arrows….

Face facts: none of the three sets of passengers of the red, blue or green little buses are capable of doing much else than licking the windows. It’s a choice of dumb, dumber and dumbest, with the only differentiation being the ideology of the party supporter.

I have a dream that, one day, we will have politicians that are competent, accountable, and worthy of a vote. Until then, it’s a matter of choosing the least bad. Donkey anyone?

nobody said :

SnapperJack said :

Now that climate change has been exposed as an expensive con

“We simply must do everything we can in our power to slow down global warming before it is too late… The science is clear. The global warming debate is over.”
Arnold Schwarzenegger, bill signing ceremony for California’s strict anti-emissions law, September 26, 2006.

“Winning the Mr Universe was wonderful! It is like cumming!”
Arnold Schwarzenegger between puffs on a joint, Pumping Iron, 1975.

OpenYourMind said :

The big question is, has it been long enough for people to forget Kate Carnell?

I thought Kate Carnell would be the worst chief minister I would ever see. After Stanhope and Gallagher I’m not so sure.

OpenYourMind10:11 pm 03 Jul 12

The big question is, has it been long enough for people to forget Kate Carnell?

Yeah gee great – woo hoo – Labor is on the nose and all that – time for a change, blah, blah blah. Actually, some of us still remember the disaster that was Canberra under a Liberal Government. Hey! Let’s build a footsal slab where everyone will use it for a car park! Gee that was a great idea! Why is no-one using it? Hey let’s spend millions of dollars on an upgrade for Bruce Stadium that will blow out to the max and attract no private sector funding at all! Hey the grass is dying because we got the wrong type – OK, well we’ll just paint it green then. Why are we are laughing stock? I’ve got a great idea! Let’s explode the hospital and make it a public spectacle and invite everyone down to watch and put the dodgy contractors under so much pressure they rush the job and kill someone. And why don’t we just throw away the last bastion of resistance to a complete conservative takeover of Australia that will send us back to the 50s while the earth continues to warm and our children and grandchildren suffer. You don’t see Katy Gallagher crashing her car after a visit to a winery and crossing the border before the cops show up. But by all means – if people hark back to the ‘good old days’ days then go right ahead.

Tetranitrate9:07 pm 03 Jul 12

milkman said :

The only meaningful difference if the Libs get in (led by Zed) will be relaxing of planning requirements. Zed is, after all, part of a large Croatian family of builders and developers.

I don’t like Labor, especially the local mob, but the local Libs seem woefully inadequate for the task.

At this point I’d actually prefer a pro-developer government to a pro landlord, pro NIMBY, pro scarcity government.

Bring on the bulldozers, may the new apartment blocks climb high above the leafy streets of the inner north.

The only meaningful difference if the Libs get in (led by Zed) will be relaxing of planning requirements. Zed is, after all, part of a large Croatian family of builders and developers.

I don’t like Labor, especially the local mob, but the local Libs seem woefully inadequate for the task.

JerryJohnson6:11 pm 03 Jul 12

This seems like counting numbers in a vacuum of information. You really need a poll to know anything about prospective seats.

As for the stuff about the public service, they are chartered to do the government’s bidding. Might be a bit of an overstretch to suggest that it needs to be gutted and replenished with a new set of stooges. Its fairly a-political below the highest ranks.

They would look like a gang social traditional, economic un-regulating, environmental lenients out of their depth and lacking experience, who will get the policy balance between our society, our economy, and our environment into an unbalanced mess.

SnapperJack said :

Now that climate change has been exposed as an expensive con

“We simply must do everything we can in our power to slow down global warming before it is too late… The science is clear. The global warming debate is over.”
Arnold Schwarzenegger, bill signing ceremony for California’s strict anti-emissions law, September 26, 2006.

“There’s a better scientific consensus on this than on any issue I know — except maybe Newton’s second law of dynamics,”
D. James Baker, administrator of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“At its core, global climate change is not about economic theory or political platforms, nor about partisan advantage or interest group pressures. It is about the future of God’s creation and the one human family. It is about protecting both `the human environment’ and the natural environment.”
United States Conference of Catholic Bishops statement

Canberra voters are traditionally centre-left leaning and disaffected Labor voters are highly unlikely to vote Liberal. Since Labor dispensed with any pretence of being a party of the left a long time ago, that leaves only the Greens and perhaps some independents or other minor parties. I can see the Green and independent votes increasing.

Beau Locks said :

Why can’t the Libs put on a few interesting people and also let them be themselves and allow the community to get to know them?

Why can’t more Canberrans show more interest in how they’re governed? Maybe then we’d start to get higher quality candidates?

Let’s just hope The Greens get totally obliterated and lose all their seats. 2008 was a one-off during the euphoria of Kevin07 winning, the Kyoto protocol being signed and warm and fuzzy talk about “action on climate change” and introducing an ETS.

Now that climate change has been exposed as an expensive con and the carbon tax will start pushing up the cost of living, it is hoped that the ex-Greens voters will migrate back to the major parties and that the ACT election marks the beginning of the end with The Greens going the way of the Australian Democrats. Sooner rather than later.

whitelaughter4:44 pm 03 Jul 12

HiddenDragon said :

Some, with a more sinuous twist of imagination, might even speculate that a federal Coalition government, particularly if it has a sympathetic Senate, may be sufficently provoked by the continued existence of a Territory Labor government (even one led by the amiable Ms G.) as to perform some interesting surgery on the ACT Self Government Act.

[sigh] what a wonderful thought…
…the problem is, even if the ACT was the only Labor stronghold in OZ, abolishing self-govt will still cost the Libs several positions: are they willing to pay that cost? If they could sell this as Canberra bashing in the states and pro-Canberra in the ACT, it might be worth their while.

Notwithstanding the comments about voters who voted Green last time expecting a unicorn for every family and are now sorely disappointed, surely the two Molonglo Greens will have built up something of a personal vote this time – Shane Rattenbury in particular. One of the perks of being Speaker is regularly getting your mug on the TV news, after all. I’d expect this to buffer them sufficiently that they maintain two seats in Molonglo.

To take the question literally, a lot of them would look like the type of first year law student who tries to engage you in discussions about exam results and which school you went to.

I’m wondering how many votes will be based on dis/like of the Federal parties.

P.S. Some graphs would be great in this article JB!

What would it look like? Hmmm…

I don’t think anyone can say until it happens. I’m more scared by the thought of another 4 years of the unparalleled incompetence shown by the current government. I don’t think it can get much worse.

chewy14 said :

Because a lot of Greens voters at the last election only did so because choosing between Labor and Liberal in this town is akin to the South Park episode of Giant Douche or Turd Sandwich.

Don’t blame me, I voted for Kodos.

Grail said :

Why would people who voted Green last election not vote Green next election? What do Labor or Liberal parties offer the Green voter?

Because a lot of Greens voters at the last election only did so because choosing between Labor and Liberal in this town is akin to the South Park episode of Giant Douche or Turd Sandwich.

A lot of those people are now realising that the third choice of Giant Douche Sandwich isn’t any better.

HiddenDragon1:13 pm 03 Jul 12

After what seems like a rather long stretch of Labor government, there must be some sort of It’s Time factor at work, but for many people, I would guess that the response would be “time for what?” – Madam Cholet’s pithy observations are most pertinent here.

I would be very interested in a party, or plausible independent candidates, who could persuade me that they have a clear, sharp focus on the delivery of essential, cost-effective services – no stunts, frolics, hobby horses or taxpayer-funded pandering. Do what truly needs to be done, let the great majority of decent, sensible, intelligent Canberrans live their lives without unnecessary interference and regulation, and lend a hand to those who really need it.

A major factor surely at play in the next Territory election campaign will be the strong likelihood of a federal Coalition government taking power some time in the next year, or so. Many will no doubt feel that sticking with ACT Labor will provide some insurance and protection. Others will hope that a Territory Liberal government may be treated more favourably. Some, with a more sinuous twist of imagination, might even speculate that a federal Coalition government, particularly if it has a sympathetic Senate, may be sufficently provoked by the continued existence of a Territory Labor government (even one led by the amiable Ms G.) as to perform some interesting surgery on the ACT Self Government Act.

No doubt any non-partisan paying attention to ACT politics would prefer a more inspiring Liberal team.

That doesn’t mean they can’t win with a small target strategy, narrow policy focus and targeted campaigning to the name recognition quirks of our voting system.

Particularly with anti-labor sentiment where it is, a very tired government that’s been around longer than is healthy for any party to stay at the wheel, and the federal election still a year away come ACT election day.

It’s an interesting thought experiment, isn’t it? I doubt it’ll happen, tho. Why can’t the Libs put on a few interesting people and also let them be themselves and allow the community to get to know them? (I could say the same thing about Labor, but they’re already on a pretty good wicket.)

The thing that I think would be most disappointing in the event of any significant changes after the next election would be the likely loss of Caroline Le Couteur. I reckon she is the most committed and consciousness person in the council, and also the person with the least ego, just quietly getting on with things and keeping the guvment to account.

There are also one or two Tory candidates that could be good, but they’re in the shadow of some of the current crop, which doesn’t help anyone.

With their current level of organisation and experience, minimal visibility as a valid Opposition, lack of clear policy, I’d expect prettymuch the final weeks of Carnell all over again.

You know, fire and brimstone coming down from the skies, rivers and seas boiling, four years of darkness, earthquakes, volcanoes, the dead rising from the grave, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together in sin, mass hysteria…

Why would people who voted Green last election not vote Green next election? What do Labor or Liberal parties offer the Green voter?

If the Liberals do get in at the next election, here’s how their playbook will work: “OMG Labor left the government in SO MUCH DEBT, at this rate of spending we’ll be paying $1M in interest for every wage earner in the town!” Everything after that will be some kind of failure attributable to the previous Government (because they haven’t had the experience of running a small business much less a Government for 12 years).

That’s what Liberal governments do: despite their claim to be familiar with running businesses or corporations, the opportunity to point at lots of red in the budget to make the other guy look bad will not be passed up simply because the debt was to purchase production capital or service infrastructure damaged by once-in-a-lifetime events.

Expect a large purge of the local public service, a severe reduction in social services aimed at rehabilitating criminals, drug addicts, abuse victims, and all those people who have failed themselves and society by not being better people. After all, Liberals believe in self actualisation, and that we are all what we choose to be, don’t they? And of course, tax cuts for the rich and tax hikes for the poor: all in the name of a “user pays” economy.

What I do imagine happening is Liberal and Labor both losing votes to independents and fringe parties. It would not surprise me at all to see Chic Henry getting a seat. Would Liberal or Labor voters abandon their parties to back Chic Henry/Australian Motorists Party to strike back at the cyclists and people wanting to enhance public transport by taking lanes away from cars?

Greens will likely make another 4% gain in total votes, though not enough to win another seat. Most of those will be cyclists, or single-occupant-vehicle drivers who dream of a rosier future with free public transport that is actually useful for commuting to work outside of the 9–5 rat race.

The next three years will probably come down to (a) scuttlebutt as Liberals leak Labor papers showing how bad they were, Labor leaks Liberal papers showing how bad they are, and Greens leak their own papers in the hope that someone cares, (b) ramping up the cars vs everyone else debate, and (c) Chic Henry falling flat on his face inside 12 months, along the lines of Peter Garrett’s abysmal failure to fit into Labor party politics. Chic will learn the hard way that there’s a huge gap between being a lobbyist and being a member of the Government of the day.

If only the Liberal Party had actually had some policies of their own and referred to them when opposing everything, we’d be in a better situation.

In my personal experience a lot of people voted Green at the last election because they were choosing between Liberal and Green (Labor being on the nose) and decided to give the Greens a try.

Not all of those voters are thrilled with the Greens and the Liberals are, if dispiriting, at least not a rabble this time.

I’m only making this case in Molonglo where the second Green seat is on a razor thin margin.

Holden Caulfield12:35 pm 03 Jul 12

I wonder how much it would boost the Libs’ chances if Zed and Brendan didn’t run at all!

Madam Cholet12:35 pm 03 Jul 12

Very fanciful thinking JB!

I’m not into the whole who gets what where, but from my perspective these are the things I’d like the Libs to do that would convince me that they are interested in anything other than themselves….

Get rid of Zed as leader. Hasn’t achieved anything in terms of traction or recognition for being a credible alternative.

Get Jeremy Hanson into the top seat quick smart. He is a good performer but over-shadowed by the non-performers who are just unprofessional

Get some of the old folk to move on. Brendan is a nice guy, but if you haven’t had success with old faithful, then get moving on your succession planning

Remove the reliance on cronies doing your dirty work and try and look like you have a clue as to how a party should run….stop letting staffers become party office bearers as it only ever backfires.

Don’t employ people who are solely popular with the community, a la Val Jeffries and his grubby jumper. He may have put out raging fires to gain community trust but it’s way different from doing it every day and understanding bigger issues

Give your new candidates who do have great experience a bloody go for heavens sake – some profile would be nice. I know I’ve got one of the newbies in my area, but have no real idea who she is – I know it’s a she at least. Got a good awful flyer with a few sentences obviously badly written by the head office. Lets get to know them. In other words, stop relying totally on the old gang who get you no where each time.

Hey Liberals…it’s not just ok to increase your vote. You have to actually win to remain credible.

remember people that Labor’s high primary vote in Ginninderra was largely the result of Jon Stanhope’s personal vote.

I’d also put it to you that Chic Henry is better known, liked, and trusted in Belconnen than any given member of the Legislative Assembly. But I guess we find out come election day!

CrocodileGandhi12:06 pm 03 Jul 12

I think you’re being very generous to Chic. It’s hard to imagine that there will be enouh people who will vote for someone who will be running on a platform of “Summernats = Good. Parking = Free. Everything else = erm…next question”.

johnboy said :

3 out of five in tuggers. Three out of five (with Chic) in Belco. Three out of seven in Molonglo.

Yeah OK, more achievable I guess. Still can’t see the Libs picking up three in Belco where Labor had its best results and where the Greens have their best operator.

But three in Tuggers is do-able, and possibly in Molonglo (out of 7). Eight max, which still wouldn’t give them a majority in their own right, but would give them a moral victory of having more seats than Labor!.

Scary thought JB. I can’t see though the Libs picking up 4 out of 6 in Tuggers, that would require more than 50% of the votes I would suspect.
I like this analysis done at http://bit.ly/NYfATW – seems to be somewhat considered. But like you, I wouldn’t discount the Libs going damned close. I doubt Chic in Belco will poll anything more than a few hundred votes though and Coe and Dunne are not hugely popular, and the Libs will really struggle in Molonglo.

3 out of five in tuggers. Three out of five (with Chic) in Belco. Three out of seven in Molonglo.

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