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With the election finalised, who should be considering their future?

By johnboy - 31 October 2012 24

packing up

The Legislative Assembly has published the finalised composition of the Eighth Assembly. It is what we expected last Saturday. A hung Assembly with the chastened Greens hanging on to the balance of power.

While we await the Greens’ decision on who will form government let’s look at what and who didn’t work in the election campaign.

Brindabella

The Labor effort down south was generally poor (or at least poorly recieved), but Joy Burch with very close to a complete quota will be happy and Mick Gentleman polled strongly for a retread unburdened by the strong Labor rivals of the past.

Brendan Smyth with just .4 of a quota after all his years banging around down south really needs to think about hanging up the boots. Val Jeffery was probably already getting too long in the tooth for this sort of thing.

The Greens Amanda Bresnan with just .3 of a quota probably needed to spend more time in her electorate.

Ginninderra

Labor will be thrilled with taking three seats in Belco but Chris Bourke, while new to the Assembly, should have done better than .5 of a quota as a minister.

For the Motorists Chic Henry wasn’t that far off it with .4, but it felt like he lost interest in the contest just when he should have been putting the pedal to the metal. Chic hooning around Belconnen in a big convertible with a couple of bikini models throwing Woodstock cans to grateful bogans would have been a beautiful thing.

The Liberals’ Alistair Coe will be pretty happy with his .9, but after all these years you’d have to think Vicki Dunne polling .5 isn’t good enough. A stronger candidate coming in early in the Assembly to get lots of face time could tip the balance come 2016.

Marion Le’s strange campaign was met largely with disinterest.

The Greens’ Meredith Hunter just barely managed to beat Chic Henry on primary votes which is something for her to think about.

Molonglo

The Team Katy strategy played merry hell with the other Labor candidates in Molonglo. If things had gone slightly worse the cult of personality could have lead to disastrous outcomes rather than be merely bad for her party with serious Labor players at risk of early exclusion.

Simon Corbell with .2 of a quota got beaten on the primary vote by his little known Labor colleague Meegan Fitzharris. It’s probably time for him to seek new opportunities and give someone else a go rather than face oblivion next time around.

Steve Dozspot, with over twice the primary votes of Simon Corbell should be feeling OK, but one has to think the party and the people would be better served if he made way for Elizabeth Lee in the next year or so.

Steve, on the other hand, outpolled all the Green candidates who are certainly in the room of mirrors and won’t be coming out any time soon.

It’s a good thing Shane Rattenbury runs triathlons, because trying to be speaker, lone green MLA, and also get out there in front of the people of Molonglo is going to be one hell of a job. Shane probably remains the best Green for it.

Who else?

I know if I’d announced the winner of this election two days before people got a chance to vote I’d have preferred a finalised result before now. Yes I’m talking about Noel Towell at the Canberra Times.

[Photo by Victor1558 CC BY 2.0]

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With the election finalised, who should be considering their future?
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cmdwedge said :

johnboy said :

colourful sydney racing identity said :

Didn’t Seslja do the same thing in Brindabella???

Seselja’s secondary candidates all did much better.

And throughout the campaign I got a much bigger sense of the rest of the team from the Liberals rather than Labor’s “Katy Katy Katy”.

Yup, I’m certain I saw ‘Angie Drake for Team Katy’ on a corflute at Coolo a couple of times. The Molonglo Labor peeps were really pegging their elctoral hopes on Katy, not the party. Zed’s team didn’t try to hide behind his coattails, we knew Zed would get in and everyone else on the ticket got equal airtime and support.

Angie Drake for Team Katy? lol! Didn’t see that – sounds like she was pre-selected solely to get more publicity for Katy – though hardly surprising given the CFMEU connection.

Anyway, thanks for clarifying.

Jon 10:22 am 01 Nov 12

To be fair on Steve Doszpot, he had changed electorates and while he did have some name recognition, there were a lot of voters in Molonglo that just didn’t know who he was.

With the amount of advertising that both Elizabeth and Giulia did, that job was only going to be harder for Steve. Giulia came out strong with the signs and advertising very early in the campaign and never showed any sign of letting up.

As soon as signs were stolen/damaged/removed, they were replaced with new ones. I’d hate to think how much of her own money she threw at the campaign, but it wasn’t by any means trivial.

Elizabeth too, had a lot of advertising throughout the whole campaign, whereas I did notice Steve – despite having the advantage of being an existing MLA – didn’t advertise anywhere near as much as the other two. It was always going to be difficult for him under both those circumstances.

As for Brendan’s 0.4 quota, I think that the “cult of personality” that Johnboy talked about came into effect with Zed and to say he should retire simply because of the low primary vote I think doesn’t take into account the whole story.

Anyone, no matter how “good” a candidate they might be, will always suffer when you have a strong leader in the same electorate. Zed campaigned as hard as Katy did. Everytime you turned on the TV, you’d either see Zed or Katy. He was always going to get close to 2 quotas in his own right – just as Katy did. But over half of Zed’s primaries went straight through to Brendan once his prefererences were distributed. It’s exactly the same thing as happened to the Labor Party in Molonglo (look at Andrew Barr and his 0.3 quota).

Just my 2c.

cmdwedge 10:21 am 01 Nov 12

johnboy said :

colourful sydney racing identity said :

Didn’t Seslja do the same thing in Brindabella???

Seselja’s secondary candidates all did much better.

And throughout the campaign I got a much bigger sense of the rest of the team from the Liberals rather than Labor’s “Katy Katy Katy”.

Yup, I’m certain I saw ‘Angie Drake for Team Katy’ on a corflute at Coolo a couple of times. The Molonglo Labor peeps were really pegging their elctoral hopes on Katy, not the party. Zed’s team didn’t try to hide behind his coattails, we knew Zed would get in and everyone else on the ticket got equal airtime and support.

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