10 December 2010

The 9 December floods

| johnboy
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[First filed: Dec 9, 2010 @ 8:31]

riverside plaza [The back of Riverside Plaza this morning]

The NSW SES is very worried that the Captains Flat Dam is going to fail amid concerns about flooding in Queanbeyan.

The dam failure warning system for Captains Flat Dam earlier this morning triggered a red alert. This has been downgraded and it is now issued as an Amber Alert. The dam is not expected to fail at this level but if the water keeps rising, a Red Alert could be triggered and major flooding of Captains Flat could result.

UPDATE: In the ACT the ESA is also expressing concern about Oaks Estate.

If you have pictures, as always, send them in to images@the-riotact.com .

FURTHER UPDATE: Pretty soon it won’t matter how many spillways they open at Scrivener Dam:

Scrivener

UPDATE 3: Dave has sent in pictures from Captains Flat with this note:

the crimes are in captains flat ATM “recreating” an event that happened earlier today. Where a local man caught a large yellowbelly on the bowling green. I was there when it happened and wondered if you would like (to publish) the actual pictures? also have some of the river and water over the dam wall.

Pictures in the slideshow.

UPDATE 4: ACTPol_Traffic on Twitter is reporting Scrivener Dam has now been closed to traffic.

UPDATE 5: The National Capital Authority is giving notice that they’re considering opening the 5th gate of Scrivener this afternoon for the first time since 1976. They ask the public to stay away.

UPDATE 6: And the first joke has arrived, see below the fold!

UPDATE 7: Queanbeyan and Palerang have now been declared natural disaster areas.

UPDATE 8: The RSPCA is appealing for donations to help displaced Queanbeyan pet owners.

UPDATE 9: ACTEW are justifying why water from their Googong dam is raging through Queanbeyan.

UPDATE 10: TAMS have produced a very handy road closure guide.

UPDATE 11: Over 100 pictures in the slideshow! Keep them coming to images@the-riotact.com

UPDATE 12: Queanbeyan now trending number 4 on Twitter nationally.

UPDATE 13: TAMS have a new road closures list out.

UPDATE 14: Queanbeyan City Council’s website makes no mention at all of the town split asunder by floodwaters. (as at 16:30, 9 December 2010)

(Slideshow below, thanks to Ricky, Trina, Aussielyn, Peter, Kirrily, Amelia, Alexander, Snarky, UrbanAdventure, Davecpd, Dave, motleychick, ozchick, jake, James, Che and Hank)

Joke sent in by OzChick:

PLEASE DIG DEEP PEOPLE

Torrential rain hit Queanbeyan in the early hours of Wednesday 8th December 2010.

Victims were seen wandering around aimlessly, flannies soaked, woollen trackies sagging, muttering ‘Faaackinell’.

Flood waters devastated the area causing approximately $30 worth of damage, $10 of that at Karabar alone.

Three areas of historic burnt out cars were disturbed. Many locals were woken well before their Centrelink cheques arrived.

The Queanbeyan Age reported that hundreds of residents were confused and bewildered and were still trying to come to terms with the fact that something interesting had happened in Queanbeyan .

One resident – Tracy Maree Sharon Britney Madonna Smith, a 15-year-old Mother of 5 said ‘It was such a shock, my little daughter Chardonnay-Mercedes came running in to my bedroom crying. My youngest two
Joachim and River slept through it all.’

Apparently, looting, muggings and car crime were unaffected and carried on as normal with a 95.7 % saturation rate .

The Australian Red Cross has so far managed to ship 4,000 crates of Bacardi-Breezers to the area to help the stricken locals particularly those at Jerrabomberra also known as Lower Tralee or East Machonachie.

Rescue workers are still searching through the rubble and have found large quantities of personal belongings, including Health Care Cards, Jewellery from Kmart and Bone China from Big W.

HOW CAN YOU HELP?

This appeal is to raise money for food and clothing parcels for those unfortunate enough to be caught up in this disaster.

Clothing is most sought after – items most needed include: flannelette Shirts, tight blue jeans or spandex, singlets (blue & white) white sport socks, Ugg boots and any other items usually sold in Priceline or The Reject Shop.

Food parcels may be harder to come by, but are needed all the same.

Required foodstuffs urgently needed include: Microwave meals, Baked Beans, Ice cream, Chips, Fizzy drinks.

Donations of $15.00 will be taken to buy a packet of winny blue

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The a priori probability of AA winning 10 games in a row is indeed only 12.5% … It is, after all, much easier to win 10 games in a row starting from a position of having already won 9 in a row!

And therein lies the analogy. I publicly concede defeat on the dodgy maths behind it though. Until I read this response, I actually thought ‘a priori’ was something from a Dan Brown novel. Be proud that you taught a bogan something new.

For the Two-up players, any decision to bet would be based on mathematical expectation (which has nothing to do with results). Since the game of Two-Up itself has a mathematical expectation of precisely zero, I leave it for the chumps to enjoy on ANZAC Day.

Holden Caulfield3:23 pm 10 Dec 10

Here’s a couple of videos from yesterday afternoon’s entertainment at Scrivener Dam…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnrGEAcKjjo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HiI8FsGfuYE

Target Queabeyan has re-opened for business today. http://www.target.com.au/enewsletters/101210/101210-Queanbeyan.htm

Maybe that means other Riverside Plaza retailers are also re-opening.

Antagonist, you are wrong. The chance of AA winning in Game 1 is 81.21%; the chance of it winning in Game 2 is 81.21%; the chance of it winning in Game 10 is 81.21%. Each game is an independent event. The cards have no memory of the previous hands.

The a priori probability of AA winning 10 games in a row is indeed only 12.5% – but after it has won 9 games in a row, the probability of winning the tenth is still 81.21%.

It is, after all, much easier to win 10 games in a row starting from a position of having already won 9 in a row!

Antagonist said :

It is in the math. I will use an example from Texas Holdem Poker to illustrate ….

Therefore, if you have gone 9 years without flood on a 10 year cycle, then you ARE Mathematically more likely to have a flood on the 10th year.

To play with your analogy – you assume that the deck does not get shuffled after every hand, and this is what’s driving those arguing against you crazy.

Gungahlin Al12:45 pm 10 Dec 10

The NCA are quoted in today’s paper as having to shell out $25,000 per day to have the LBG flood gates open. So does anyone understand why this would be?

carnardly said :

I saw a chap interviewed on the late news last night. Obviously he was a used car dealer that got flooded out. He was whinging and moaning that someone should have rung him before it happened so he had a chance to move some of the cars…

and if nothing else, if the only major dam between you and a significant rainfall event is already overflowing, you’re going to get very wet. Do they really need someone to hold their hand and explain it to them in simple language?

I saw a chap interviewed on the late news last night. Obviously he was a used car dealer that got flooded out. He was whinging and moaning that someone should have rung him before it happened so he had a chance to move some of the cars…

Mate – the coppers or whoever are trying to maintain law and order. The flood warnings were all over the news in the 24 hours beforehand. Why should someone else have to tell you? There were hundreds of other houses under threat too.

Couldn’t believe it!

Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? “Someone should have called me before bushfires went raging through and burnt my house down, even though I could see and smell smoke two weeks beforehand, and it was all over the tele, I still had no idea it was coming because I’ve had my head up my ar*e for too long”…

Happy to tolerate the stupid Queanbehole jokes today – actually more happy that we didn’t have to pull bodies out of the Molonglo. Well done Q!

Sorry, as troll-sniffer said, not djk.

Antogonist, yes the 50% comment is bs, but so is your maths. It’s ok, it’s the most common mistake people make. Probability doesn’t remember what happened previously. Think of the coin toss. Its a 50% chance to land heads. If it landed tails in your last toss, it doesn’t make it more likely to land heads the next time, its still a 50% chance. It will average out over the long term, but you can still land 5 tails in a row without it influencing the next toss. Your maths just says from the starting point of when you calculate, there is a probability of 87.45% of a flood having occured in those 10 years. Not a chance of 87.45% in that particular year. Probability doesn’t work like that.

But as djk said, the appropriate prediction model should take into account more than just length of time since a flood. Weather is a little bit more complicated than texas hold em.

Antagonist,
you’re joking right?

Do you go to Two Up on Anzac Day and wait for the spinner to land 9 heads in a row and then say “It has to be tails this time”?

I saw a chap interviewed on the late news last night. Obviously he was a used car dealer that got flooded out. He was whinging and moaning that someone should have rung him before it happened so he had a chance to move some of the cars…

Mate – the coppers or whoever are trying to maintain law and order. The flood warnings were all over the news in the 24 hours beforehand. Why should someone else have to tell you? There were hundreds of other houses under threat too.

Couldn’t believe it!

androo said :

I strongly suspect that Lady Denman Drive’s closure had little to do with ‘fun police’ or spray, and much more to do with the amount of debris heading towards the dam. Being free of traffic would allow grab-excavators or whatever to operate on the roadway if needed to remove trees/logs/junk from against the buttresses as needed and trucks to take that debris away.

For a ‘one in 30yr event’ I figure people might walk from the roadblock to the dam? Or do significant events require a McDonalds ‘drive through’ mentality? Just sayin’.

That’s actually pretty reasonable. I hadn’t considered that. Still, I thought the “spray” explanation was lame and I suspect made-up. As for walking, I believe the NCA website stated that bike paths and pedestrian access were also being closed. I just hate the way that so-called “rubber-necking” meets with such predictable derision when a) it is pretty natural for people to be curious or interested, and b) in many cases is totally harmless.

troll-sniffer10:58 am 10 Dec 10

All of you statisticians are wrong. The chance of a 20 year flood happening each year is exactly 50% – either it happens or it doesn’t.

The math provided in my example clearly shows your assertion is BS.

djk’s assertion is correct in a completely blank world, however the weather does not conform to pure stastistical modelling, and therefore all the classic models based on mathematical theories are irrelevant in this context.

The cjhances of a one in twenty year flood are based largely on the pattern of ocean currents around the continent which in turn are based on several thousands of variables, from cloud cover to sun strength to recent volcanics etc.

Quite simply, the probability of a one in twenty year flood is greatest when an La Nina event is coincident with the right Indian Ocean and Southern Ocean currents bringing warmer waters closer to the continent, together with the time of year and the position and severity of the atmospheric patterns around the world…

These events do seem to come together at 20-30 year intervals so the probability of a one in twenty year flood will get greater the closer you get to twenty years since the last one… AS LONG AS the patterns in the southern oceans remain consistent.

So, djk is technically right but actually wrong, and those who quote the various stastistical models alone to back up their positions are also wrong.

All of you statisticians are wrong. The chance of a 20 year flood happening each year is exactly 50% – either it happens or it doesn’t.

The math provided in my example clearly shows your assertion is BS.

m_ratt says:

“I would have expectd this modelling to take a Poisson Distribution”

sounds a bit fishy to me but given we are talking about a flood maybe it’s appropriate.

All of you statisticians are wrong. The chance of a 20 year flood happening each year is exactly 50% – either it happens or it doesn’t.

Once again, the road into Queanbeyan from the Bungendore side was a car park, stretching back kilometres. Most of the traffic wants to turn right at the Red Rooster and head into Canberra, but they can’t get on to the roundabout, because traffic is queued around it. As the traffic from the Queanbeyan main street stretches back and back, past the fast food outlets and onto that roundabout, everything coming in from the east (thousands of cars a day) grinds to a halt.

This happened last Friday, when the Morrisett St low level bridge flooded. It happened again yesterday, and their eventual response was to close the road from Queanbeyan to Bungendore. It happened again this morning and I’m sure the traffic is still stretched back on the Kings Highway.

They could open up Thurallilly St, that opening near the old Rainbow Motel, to bleed off some of the traffic, but they don’t. They could put a cop on the roundabout, to stop people queuing around it, but they don’t.

georgesgenitals9:14 am 10 Dec 10

Skidbladnir said :

Georgesgenitals:
Care to clarify? Duffy-Holder-Chapman-Kambah were never really “where can we store our poor” areas, and the strength of the 2003 fire event wasn’t anywhere near as predictable as Queanbeyan-Palerang filling their 20yr flood plains.
Check the local history, flooding has occurred like clockwork every second decade except for the 1990s, going back as far as the records.
(and don’t block quote just to add a paragraph, its an eyesore and adds nothing)

There’s been plenty of time when Duffy, Holder and Kambah have been considered lower socio-economic areas, just not recently.

Consider too that there have been significant fires in the past (and these have been significantly exacerbated by the presence of pine plantations). Having major pine plantations close to suburban homes (and upwind), and doing this within the last 50 years, seems a lot crazier to me than building homes (some over 100 years ago) in an area where the high flood levels are actually pretty well known.

How many houses in Queanbeyan actually got flooded? Most of what was under water was parks, pathways, road and carparks. Also the caravan park, where vans were able to be moved when the waters rose. I’d be interested to see just much residential property damage actually occurred. I don’t think it will be much at all.

Padoof said :

(woops! obviously I’m a dopey newbie!)

Does anyone know about the status of the roads to the coast? My children’s father from whom I am long estranged (feel free to read between the lines), is taking them to Dalmeny this weekend, via Brown Mountain. I can’t see anything regarding road closures on the RTA website, and the ACT one’s pretty woeful. Needless to say I’m just a tad worried.

Best thing to do is call the Cooma or Bega police. They’re always able to say with 100% certainty whether Brown Mountain is closed or open and they’re happy to advise the public about it.

Captain RAAF8:45 am 10 Dec 10

Jivrashia:
Coming from someone who hasn’t formally studied probability since Uni, but still remembers and uses Bayesian formulae fairly regularly…
bla bla bla bla blah blaaaah

Who cares, stop highjacking the awesomness of these floods with all your ‘probability’ and ‘pythagorarse’ and ‘mathematical’ gobbledigook cos’ blokes like me only care about whether or not LBG will soon be home to copious amounts of native fish that have been swept down from upstream which will turn into ‘MONSTER’ fish after a diet of poo and dead humans washed down from QBN.

Say it’s true, please!!!

I strongly suspect that Lady Denman Drive’s closure had little to do with ‘fun police’ or spray, and much more to do with the amount of debris heading towards the dam. Being free of traffic would allow grab-excavators or whatever to operate on the roadway if needed to remove trees/logs/junk from against the buttresses as needed and trucks to take that debris away.

For a ‘one in 30yr event’ I figure people might walk from the roadblock to the dam? Or do significant events require a McDonalds ‘drive through’ mentality? Just sayin’.

(woops! obviously I’m a dopey newbie!)

Does anyone know about the status of the roads to the coast? My children’s father from whom I am long estranged (feel free to read between the lines), is taking them to Dalmeny this weekend, via Brown Mountain. I can’t see anything regarding road closures on the RTA website, and the ACT one’s pretty woeful. Needless to say I’m just a tad worried.

which gates?
from my uneducated observations of the dam and how it’s opened recently, and if you numbered the gates from the Zoo 1-2-3-4-5, then I’d say: 3 first, then 2, then 4, then 1, then 5. That seems to make sense with the topography of the river below the dam too.

As to the balance of how many gates vs how open they are; my guess is 3 gates open a little way is ‘better’ than 1 gate open a lot – easier to control the flow.

what do staff do when it’s not open?
I’ve asked that question, and the answer I got was “maintenance”. There’s a small staff from SunWater (I think?) who manage the dam’s operation and maintenance. When spill is likely or happening, it is staffed 24hrs with additional staff flown in as needed. Apparently it can be operated remotely if needed.

OpenYourMind said :

And, how many more contributions from bush statisticians before this post wins a Mully?

The comment that if you haven’t had your one in ten year flood in the last nine years, then next year is more likely to be the one in ten. That’s gold, right there!

It is in the math. I will use an example from Texas Holdem Poker to illustrate:

Player 1 always holds AA – representing a drought year.
Player 2 always holds KK – representing a flood year. (I love owning this casino!)
Each hand represents a calendar year.

Game 1 – drought is 81.21% to occur (AA wins 81.21% vs KK)
Game 2 – drought is 66.02% to continue (AA 66.02% to win two consecutive hands vs KK)
Game 3 – drought is 53.65% to continue (little better than a coin toss after 3 years)
Game 4 – drought is 43.59% to continue
Game 5 – drought is 35.42% to win (flood is now 64.58% to occur)
Game 10 – drought is 12.55% to continue (flood is now 87.45% of occuring)

Therefore, if you have gone 9 years without flood on a 10 year cycle, then you ARE mathematically more likely to have a flood on the 10th year.

How are we looking for that Mully ???

creative_canberran12:15 am 10 Dec 10

Brucer said :

Anyone know if all 5 Scrivener gates actually opened?

A bit hard to say. I went to look but the access to Scrivener Dam on both sides had been closed. NCA website says it’s “to allow the dam operators free flowing access of the area”. On the radio some spokesperson for road closures said it was “because of the spray from the outflow”. Seriously.. if the spray was so much a hazard they’d have to close all the roads every time it rains. As for “operator access” I just don’t believe that dam operators are constantly driving in and out of the place, or that sight seers could possibly be that much of an obstruction to any that do. This is nothing more than a “locked gate” exclusionist mentality in action. Something is happening that people might be interested in and want to go and see.. so they close it off on some fabricated “safety” grounds. Apparently the desire to witness a one in 30 years event is a shameful thing to be frowned upon. My rant!

Jivrashia said :

Jivrashia said :

Braddon Boy said :

My real gripe is with Jivrashia who claims intimate knowledge of probability theory (whether it be floods or a card game, the maths makes no difference) but clearly has little idea.

Cotter Dam and the river corridor is closed again. Based on reports I’ve ready, it has nothing to do with flooding. Rather, the dam wall itself may not be all that stable anymore.

Stop putting words in my mouth. Intimate my arse. Your words, not mine.
Stop speculating what I might or might not do at a casino. That is none of your business.

You are still wrong.

If an incident occurs, and it is know to occur once every X number of years, then as the years progress without that incident the chance of it occurring in future years increases simply because the previous years are omitted from the calculation for the future years.

Ultimately the fact is IT’S GOING TO HAPPEN.

“We haven’t had incident Y happen in years… it’s gonna happen soon. Could be this year, or next.”

Simple, isn’t it?

We’re not talking about an event known to occur _exactly_ once in every X number of years. We’re talking approximately X number of years on _average_.

I would have expectd this modelling to take a Poisson Distribution:
“In probability theory and statistics, the Poisson distribution (pronounced [pwas??]) (or Poisson law of small numbers[1]) is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a number of events occurring in a fixed period of time if these events occur with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event. (The Poisson distribution can also be used for the number of events in other specified intervals such as distance, area or volume.)”

See the important bits in that description? – known _average_ rate and independant of the time since the last event.

@ LSWCHP:

I love the Queanbeyan jokes!

Keeps the relies in The Shire and Macquarie Fields most amused.

Jivrashia:
Coming from someone who hasn’t formally studied probability since Uni, but still remembers and uses Bayesian formulae fairly regularly…
Do you actually read your comments before you submit?
Its clear you don’t understand what you’re saying, but you’re still trying to convince people you’re right.
Return To Prior Mean events don’t need to show up regularly, just be powerful enough to do the job occasionally.

Georgesgenitals:
Care to clarify? Duffy-Holder-Chapman-Kambah were never really “where can we store our poor” areas, and the strength of the 2003 fire event wasn’t anywhere near as predictable as Queanbeyan-Palerang filling their 20yr flood plains.
Check the local history, flooding has occurred like clockwork every second decade except for the 1990s, going back as far as the records.
(and don’t block quote just to add a paragraph, its an eyesore and adds nothing)

OpenYourMind said :

I’d like to know the algorithm/method for judging how many gates open, how long for, and which of the five gates to use.

I’m more interested to know what the staff manning the dam do when there isn’t “a flooding event” actually occurring… anyone? Ur Guesses would adequately satisfy my curiosity…

Brucer said :

This is nothing more than a “locked gate” exclusionist mentality in action. Something is happening that people might be interested in and want to go and see.. so they close it off on some fabricated “safety” grounds. Apparently the desire to witness a one in 30 years event is a shameful thing to be frowned upon.

I think that is kind of the point they closed the dam and roads leading to it – they don’t want half of Canberra fronting up to what could *possibly* turn very, very nasty… unlikely, but certainly less likely if you don’t have a crowd of 100,000… Fun Police, yes, but pretty reasonably I’d suggest…

Mr Lubberlubber10:50 pm 09 Dec 10

Can someone please start a new thread on probability theory and its application to weather events. It is obviously a very captivating topic for a thread, but doesn’t have a real home yet.

OpenYourMind10:40 pm 09 Dec 10

And, how many more contributions from bush statisticians before this post wins a Mully?

The comment that if you haven’t had your one in ten year flood in the last nine years, then next year is more likely to be the one in ten. That’s gold, right there!

OpenYourMind10:32 pm 09 Dec 10

Four gates were open this morning and this afternoon Lady Denman was re-opened and half of Canberra turned up (including me) for a look. There were only three gates open, but the volume of water was much greater than I’ve ever seen before. I feel a little guilty for sticky beaking, but less so when I saw a cop turn up in a 4WD for what I thought was some police work…nah, he was just grabbing some tourist shots!

I’d like to know the algorithm/method for judging how many gates open, how long for, and which of the five gates to use.

I would suspect they want to be able to hoik trees off the dam wall before they build up.

Jivrashia said :

Braddon Boy said :

My real gripe is with Jivrashia who claims intimate knowledge of probability theory (whether it be floods or a card game, the maths makes no difference) but clearly has little idea.

Stop putting words in my mouth. Intimate my arse. Your words, not mine.
Stop speculating what I might or might not do at a casino. That is none of your business.

You are still wrong.

If an incident occurs, and it is know to occur once every X number of years, then as the years progress without that incident the chance of it occurring in future years increases simply because the previous years are omitted from the calculation for the future years.

Ultimately the fact is IT’S GOING TO HAPPEN.

“We haven’t had incident Y happen in years… it’s gonna happen soon. Could be this year, or next.”

Simple, isn’t it?

We’re not talking about an event known to occur _exactly_ once in every X number of years. We’re talking approximately X number of years on _average_.

I would have expectd this modelling to take a Poisson Distribution:
“In probability theory and statistics, the Poisson distribution (pronounced [pwas??]) (or Poisson law of small numbers[1]) is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a number of events occurring in a fixed period of time if these events occur with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event. (The Poisson distribution can also be used for the number of events in other specified intervals such as distance, area or volume.)”

See the important bits in that description? – known _average_ rate and independant of the time since the last event.

Deref said :

Word is that the brand new Queanbeyan Hospital is flooded and has suffered a power failure – patients are being transferred to Canberra Hospital.

Nahhhh. It’s on a hill. Open for business. I drove past it 3 hours ago, all is okay there.

bubzie said :

Anyone know if all 5 Scrivener gates actually opened?

Nope, there were only three gates open at 6:30pm..

Ahh, all 5 were open earlier on today. I don’t have a TV, but I still managed to watch one and saw pictures of all 5 going flat out to let water and logs downstream.

Brucer said :

This is nothing more than a “locked gate” exclusionist mentality in action. Something is happening that people might be interested in and want to go and see.. so they close it off on some fabricated “safety” grounds. Apparently the desire to witness a one in 30 years event is a shameful thing to be frowned upon. My rant!

I think they learnt this lesson after a certain hospital eximplosion.

Thoroughly Smashed9:36 pm 09 Dec 10

Jivrashia said :

If an incident occurs, and it is know to occur once every X number of years, then as the years progress without that incident the chance of it occurring in future years increases simply because the previous years are omitted from the calculation for the future years.

Ultimately the fact is IT’S GOING TO HAPPEN.

“We haven’t had incident Y happen in years… it’s gonna happen soon. Could be this year, or next.”

Simple, isn’t it?

…you what?

Anyone know if all 5 Scrivener gates actually opened?

Nope, there were only three gates open at 6:30pm..

Anyone know if all 5 Scrivener gates actually opened?

A bit hard to say. I went to look but the access to Scrivener Dam on both sides had been closed. NCA website says it’s “to allow the dam operators free flowing access of the area”. On the radio some spokesperson for road closures said it was “because of the spray from the outflow”. Seriously.. if the spray was so much a hazard they’d have to close all the roads every time it rains. As for “operator access” I just don’t believe that dam operators are constantly driving in and out of the place, or that sight seers could possibly be that much of an obstruction to any that do. This is nothing more than a “locked gate” exclusionist mentality in action. Something is happening that people might be interested in and want to go and see.. so they close it off on some fabricated “safety” grounds. Apparently the desire to witness a one in 30 years event is a shameful thing to be frowned upon. My rant!

Ando is correct, you can absolutely have several big events in one year, or one month, and the next, and the next. Obviously the odds for that are getting quite long. Also if that were to happen, solely because of our limited data history, we would probably have another look at what defines a 1 in 10, 20 50 year event, nothing to do with the maths behind it.

However, the probability still has to do with years. I.e. in the long term, you will experience this event once every 20 years, or whatever. But like I said in a previous post, by long term I mean thousands or millions of years. Even then there is no guarantee it will average out to this.

Dtc and facet, there is evidence that these things come in batches, look at the two big ones in the 70’s in Canberra. This is partly due to existing conditions (such as how wet the ground already is, dam levels) and that sort of thing, which is what I deal with. But it also has to do with medium term weather oscillations, like La Nina or Nino. Unfortunately, this is more the domain of the climatologists and beyond my expertise. I don’t want to pre-empt anything, or get people worried, but I would expect that over the next couple of years (maybe even weeks) there would be a greater chance of a big event. That’s not to say it will happen, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if it did.

troll-sniffer said :

I’ll be first to say it… might be a good thing!

Darwins Theory

georgesgenitals8:27 pm 09 Dec 10

Skidbladnir said :

If anyone else is going to tangle moist panties over children who are now going to face harsh realities like a Christmas without bourbon due to their present washing away:
By all means, build on the flood plain or just above the living memory high water mark if you want to.
But do not expect me to share all of my sympathy with you when you scream about how its a terrible or tragic suprise whenever a flood comes tearing through. Its only a tragic event in the literal Greek sense of the word, you brought it on yourself by making the mistake not asking why anybody would possibly turn down the bargain of Queanbeyan’s low areas.

They knew it was a flood plain, and they knew or failed to find out that there was a precedent of regular flooding on that plain, and yet they still chose to stay there.
If the property was insured for the replacement cost, they’re on a path to recovery.
If they can’t afford insurance for their property’s level of risk, they really couldn’t afford the property itself in the long-term.
If no insurer offered a policy, there’s a bloody good reason for that, it was deemed a near-certainty of wipeout.
If their expectation was that a the major dam just minutes up the road would never fill, or that a major utilities and infrastructre company building a spillway was not a sign to brace for an uncertain future, they’re living in ignorance.
If they only lived there because it was cheapest thing in the area (ie: nobody else wanted it), they are clearly getting the quality of location that they paid for, and whatever the Council thought that residents doing due diligence would expect to receive, when Council zoned it fit for construction back in the 80s, immediately after they were allowed to.

Yes, the poor man pays twice as much due to the unfairness of being poor, but life is hardly ever fair.
Those of us above the flood plain will stay in our smug cloud of schadenfreude for now.

Interestingly, the exact same sentiments could be expressed towards those who lost their homes in the Canberra bushfires.

Perish the thought that anyone posting here paying out queanbeyan flood victims ever have a natural disaster effect them.

Oh but they got a house on a floodplain or they are queanbeyanites. Who cares. Time to forget all your social stigmas for a few seconds and ask how you can help a fellow human.

Knowing SES members and having been a member of QBN SES previously, I hope all volunteers and emergency workers stay safe can enjoy time with their families at the end of their shifts.

OpenYourMind7:44 pm 09 Dec 10

Anyone know if all 5 Scrivener gates actually opened?

What, and turn this place into a dry humourless pc dogbox to scared to offend anyone? If wowsers want to have a forum like that I suggest you start one up because it’s not going to happen at the good old RA, sorry to disappoint. Do you drive a Camry by any chance?

We need to keep RiotAct as it is. I don’t want any pc crap. This is a great site. Don’t wreck it.

creative_canberran7:23 pm 09 Dec 10

New Cotter Dam being built to withstand “1 in 4 million flood and 1 in 10,000 earthquake” according to ACTEW. Does concrete even last 4 million years?

@ Braddon Boy does the mathematical model take into account the cumulative effect of a series of prolonged rain events. I understand that each time you toss the coin there is a 50/50 chance of heads or tails no matter how many heads or tails have just occurred. If we get another significant rain event (and my view of the national weather radar says we might) this would happen on top of already flooded dams and rivers.

the trees have also taken out all the rowing course bouys in the lake, a fellow at Scrivener was saying they cost $80,000 to put in

georgesgenitals6:48 pm 09 Dec 10

Deref said :

Word is that the brand new Queanbeyan Hospital is flooded and has suffered a power failure – patients are being transferred to Canberra Hospital.

Couldn’t possibly be happening. Queanbeyan hospital is built well above the level the waters reached, by several metres.

The whole “5yr, 10yr, 20yr, 50yr, whatever” concept is so abused it’s a joke, which is why such terminology is being phased out. The “years” terminology leads to complacency – if you’ve just had one, there won’t be another in 20yrs? wrong.

A “1 in 20 event”, or “5% event” is more accurate which, as Braddon Boy says, indicates that for any given event, there’s a ‘1 in 20’ chance of it being a flood of that magnitude.

Nothing to do with years (although long-term statistics may show a pattern), you could have five “1 in 20” flood events in a month or a year, and again the following month or year. O you could have smaller or larger, more frequent or less.

If anyone else is going to tangle moist panties over children who are now going to face harsh realities like a Christmas without bourbon due to their present washing away:
By all means, build on the flood plain or just above the living memory high water mark if you want to.
But do not expect me to share all of my sympathy with you when you scream about how its a terrible or tragic suprise whenever a flood comes tearing through. Its only a tragic event in the literal Greek sense of the word, you brought it on yourself by making the mistake not asking why anybody would possibly turn down the bargain of Queanbeyan’s low areas.

They knew it was a flood plain, and they knew or failed to find out that there was a precedent of regular flooding on that plain, and yet they still chose to stay there.
If the property was insured for the replacement cost, they’re on a path to recovery.
If they can’t afford insurance for their property’s level of risk, they really couldn’t afford the property itself in the long-term.
If no insurer offered a policy, there’s a bloody good reason for that, it was deemed a near-certainty of wipeout.
If their expectation was that a the major dam just minutes up the road would never fill, or that a major utilities and infrastructre company building a spillway was not a sign to brace for an uncertain future, they’re living in ignorance.
If they only lived there because it was cheapest thing in the area (ie: nobody else wanted it), they are clearly getting the quality of location that they paid for, and whatever the Council thought that residents doing due diligence would expect to receive, when Council zoned it fit for construction back in the 80s, immediately after they were allowed to.

Yes, the poor man pays twice as much due to the unfairness of being poor, but life is hardly ever fair.
Those of us above the flood plain will stay in our smug cloud of schadenfreude for now.

But I agree it’s insanity to build in areas which are known to be flood-prone. How do councils approve this kind of development – presumably through the under-the-counter administration of cash-stuffed brown envelopes from the developers?
Back in the 1980s, the NSW Government changed the planning laws of the day so it was no longer illegal to build in a 1 in 100 year floodzone. Not surprisingly, dozens of little estates sprang up on the first level up from the creek flats in growing towns across NSW (note – I didn’t live in or near Queanbeyan at the time, so this may or may not be a comment on how Queanbyean Council applied the new regime). I couldn’t comment on whether they were public housing or not, as I was more concerned with environmental rather than social things at the time – but the houses were all very ticky-tacky.

Even though this is being reported as a 1 in 50 year flood, us naysayers of the day are finally vindicated – if you build in a floodzone, you eventually get flooded.

*In case someone is looking for an exception – the reason North Wagga, Gundagai, Coonamble and other towns are flooded is because they get flooded every time the river rises enough to flood them. Those towns were built before the ban on building in a 1 in 100 year floodzone was enacted.

(Sorry mods for the multiple attemtps to get the quotes working right)

@Braddon Boy

As the time frame becomes shorter, can you be more certain as to whether a 1 in 20 year event will occur – for example, is long range forecasting accurate enough to say that in 2011 there is more than a 5% chance of a 1 in 20 year flood occuring (because of La Nina or Nino or whatever)?

bjnetzone said :

bj, don’t get so worked up about it. They are just reposting jokes that have been doing the rounds on email all day today. This is what happens in any tragedy, jokes are made about it. It’s just something you have to accept and don’t go flaming anyone who dares to post them.

No worries GBT. I’ll have to remember that winnie blue, flannie and bogan takeaway jokes are funny next time I’m waste-deep in crap or choking on bushfire smoke… :-\

That’s twice you’ve said waste instead of waist-deep. You really are in the shit…

claireinqbn said :

claireinqbn said :

They were saying that last Friday – my daughter’s water-skiing/wakeboarding trip was cancelled for that reason. Better safe than sick as.

I would have thought being “Fully Sick” was part of a wake-boarders reason for being, but there I go taking the kids literally again.

Braddon Boy said :

By the way, Queanbeyan is due to flood quite regularly; everyone knows this and the information is freely available. As a result, the market should dictate that the property prices should be lower. The owners should then save the difference in the property price to “insure” themselves when the inevitable happens. Floods are different to fires, although people living next to bush should somewhat expect them too, because there is absolutely nothing you can do about flooding, expect not live in flood prone areas. Why are my taxes given to people that willingly live in floodplains and then complain when, surprise surprise, it floods.

Careful there BB, you’re assuming everyone that lives there chooses to – you’re likely going to find a high correlation between those residences you just wrote off as flood prone where people shouldn’t live and public housing.

claireinqbn said :

They were saying that last Friday – my daughter’s water-skiing/wakeboarding trip was cancelled for that reason. Better safe than sick as.

I would have thought being “Fully Sick” was part of a wake-boarders reason for being, but there I go taking the kids literally again.

And by the way (part deux), do the people on here who’ve gratuitously been putting down Queanbeyan, whether at first or second hand, realise how low the reputation of Canberra and its inhabitants is in the rest of Australia?

But I agree it’s insanity to build in areas which are known to be flood-prone. How do councils approve this kind of development – presumably through the under-the-counter administration of cash-stuffed brown envelopes from the developers?

Gungahlin Al5:51 pm 09 Dec 10

So TAMS reckon that “Majura Road has been re-opened though is down to one lane in both directions.”??
Last time I looked, that’s all it has anyway.
I think I’m starting to understand the problem they have had all along.
Guys, 1+1=2 not 4.
Now I understand the whole GDE debacle…

Braddon Boy said :

My real gripe is with Jivrashia who claims intimate knowledge of probability theory (whether it be floods or a card game, the maths makes no difference) but clearly has little idea.

Stop putting words in my mouth. Intimate my arse. Your words, not mine.
Stop speculating what I might or might not do at a casino. That is none of your business.

You are still wrong.

If an incident occurs, and it is know to occur once every X number of years, then as the years progress without that incident the chance of it occurring in future years increases simply because the previous years are omitted from the calculation for the future years.

Ultimately the fact is IT’S GOING TO HAPPEN.

“We haven’t had incident Y happen in years… it’s gonna happen soon. Could be this year, or next.”

Simple, isn’t it?

Braddon Boy: We’re agreeing with each other, I’m just not expressing it very eloquently. 😛

claireinqbn said :

Cops just rocked up at the picnic spot by the Molonglo in front of Duntroon telling everyone to leave, claiming there was poo comin’ down the river.

They were saying that last Friday – my daughter’s water-skiing/wakeboarding trip was cancelled for that reason. Better safe than sick as.

Didn’t appear that anyone there was planning to wakeboard or waterski, or even get remotely damp for that matter. I assume the cops had identified the risk of a hazardous miasma, perhaps a faecal aerosol being formed as the poo-infested Molonglo surged into the lake.

Gungahlin Al said :

The debris on the lake – amazing.

I am waiting for coffins to appear in the lake like last time.

Word is that the brand new Queanbeyan Hospital is flooded and has suffered a power failure – patients are being transferred to Canberra Hospital.

Erg0, you’ll be surprised how reliable the modelling of frequent events, 1, 2, 5 yr ARI, can be. Although, the higher the numbers, the greater the uncertainty. For a 1 in 5000 year, we have little idea.

But you’re mixing up two very important aspects of flood prediction. We are not cretin what a 1 in 20 yr storm/flood actually is, due to the limited data on which we are basing our models, I’ll give you that. However, we have a band of confidence, for example… “we are 66% sure a 1 in 20 yr flood is between 90 and 110 cubic meters per second, let’s call it 100”. And people will go away and use 100 as the “1 in 20 yr” event to work with. By the way, in this example, saying a 1 in 20 yr flood means that on average the flood will be “greater than” 100 every 20 years.

But by definition, a 1 in 20 year event has 5% chance of happening in any given year. Over the long term, thousands or millions of years let’s say, it will average out that there has been one every 20 years. This is purely a mathematical concept and applies to everything, not just floods. This is a fact, it cannot up for discussion and is not be based on opinion.

My real gripe is with Jivrashia who claims intimate knowledge of probability theory (whether it be floods or a card game, the maths makes no difference) but clearly has little idea.

By the way, Queanbeyan is due to flood quite regularly; everyone knows this and the information is freely available. As a result, the market should dictate that the property prices should be lower. The owners should then save the difference in the property price to “insure” themselves when the inevitable happens. Floods are different to fires, although people living next to bush should somewhat expect them too, because there is absolutely nothing you can do about flooding, expect not live in flood prone areas. Why are my taxes given to people that willingly live in floodplains and then complain when, surprise surprise, it floods.

MrSurrealist4:59 pm 09 Dec 10

And by the way, wasn’t Queanbeyan here a long time before Canberra?

Cops just rocked up at the picnic spot by the Molonglo in front of Duntroon telling everyone to leave, claiming there was poo comin’ down the river.

They were saying that last Friday – my daughter’s water-skiing/wakeboarding trip was cancelled for that reason. Better safe than sick as.

And by the way, wasn’t Queanbeyan here a long time before Canberra?

Cops just rocked up at the picnic spot by the Molonglo in front of Duntroon telling everyone to leave, claiming there was poo comin’ down the river.

Theat bogan joke is great and deserves to go viral! However, have to say I’ve lived in Queanbeyan since February and like it a lot – bogans and all. (Friends in Tuggeranong say their part of the world doesn’t live up to its bogan rep either – I don’t know it well enough to comment, anyone on here from Tuggers?)

I’ve had heaps of friendly, concerned texts, emails and phone calls coming in all day from Canberran friends, which goes to prove … dunno what, really, but thanks anyway.

There are some great pics of the flood at http://www.2cc.net.au/presenters/gallery.html

Ozchick, I’ve lived in Queanbeyan, so yes, there’s a lot of bogans there, but there’s also a lot of nice, ordinary people just trying to make a living and get through the day with their families, like all the rest of us. I’m not sure it’s very good form to be taking the piss out of neighbours who’ve suffered property damage or had their lives and livelihoods affected by a natural disaster. A friend of mine just endured a roof collapse that has pretty much destroyed her house.

If it was a bushfire, would you be saying the same things?

FYI, I didn’t write that joke, it was forwarded to me.

Braddon Boy said :

Erg0 said “I think you might be overlooking the fact that nature is not obliged to adhere to our modelling”.

No, but our modelling adheres to nature. We base our parameters on historical observations. But there’s the catch, we only have historical observations to go on, and not many of them for that matter, only about 100 years worth at best.

That’s pretty much my point – there are inevitable limitations on the predictive ability of the model, because it requires certain assumptions and there’s only a limited amount of data to go on. That’s not a criticism of the modelling, it’s just my way of saying that flood predictions can not be reasonably compared to a card game.

chewy14 said :

ACTEW is secretly releasing extra water from Googong just to smash Queanbeyan for spilling shit into our lake.

Mark Sullivan for Chief Minister!

Jivrashia said “Do you know how to calculate the probability of lottery, or a hand from a deck of cards?”

Actually I do, I have studied university level probability theory and now work in hydrology and hydraulics (flood control). Being dealt a hand from a deck or the odds of lotto are at the very basic end of the various theories. Anyone who has completed year 12 recently should be able to do that. Of course if it’s not that recent then that sort of thing tends to escape you if you don’t use it.

You, however, sound like the sort of person that casinos rely on. Think you can outsmart them with your knowledge of the laws of probability but are way off the mark.

Erg0 said “I think you might be overlooking the fact that nature is not obliged to adhere to our modelling”.

No, but our modelling adheres to nature. We base our parameters on historical observations. But there’s the catch, we only have historical observations to go on, and not many of them for that matter, only about 100 years worth at best.

Jungle Jim said :

Not quite – the report said that the capacity to flow at 10,500 cubic meters per second is there, but we’re only flowing at 700.

No, it is…
700/10,500 = 6% capacity.

If it was flowing at the Spillway safe capacity it would be flowing at world-sixth-by-volume, but then we’d have bigger problems than Queanbeyan flooding (like assembling sets of seven for every clean beast and pairs of the others, for starters)…

10,500 m^3/s would fill an emptry Sydney Harbour basin (562 million m^3) in 15 hours.

chewy14 said :

Well our dam has just overtopped, so hopefully we can wash most of Queanbeyan away by this time tomorrow. Go Googong Go.

My comment last week on the Queanbeyan Sewage treatment thread has turned out to be true.

ACTEW is secretly releasing extra water from Googong just to smash Queanbeyan for spilling shit into our lake.

missalli said :

Clare Holland House is being evacuated so my FB tells me..

Not being evacuated now…

Disinformation3:31 pm 09 Dec 10

Today’s headlines:

“Queanbeyan cut off by floodwaters. Government declares new detention centre open.”
“Queanbeyan centrelink flooded with job seekers”
“Canberra Zoo donates six crocodiles to Queanbeyan disaster relief operations”
“Queanbeyan residents advised to avoid work and stay home. Centrelink says its business as usual.”
“Jack Daniels to air-drop relief aid to stranded Queanbeyan locals”
“Queanbeyan house assembled by rushing floodwaters”.
“Queanbeyan residents found clinging to trees. Floodwaters yet to rise.”
“Mayor of Queanbeyan announces support for Murray-Darling river policy”
“Stolen vehicles down, rise in boat thefts, say Police”
“Developers announce new waterfront apartments overlooking Queanbeyan caravan park site”
“Queanbeyan: now the fastest flowing regional city in New South Wales”
“Gillard and Abbot historic announcement to join forces and Stop The Boats in Queanbeyan”
“Queanbeyan Council announces Raft of Changes for Town Centre”.
“Queanbeyan floodwaters linked to Suicide Plumber”
“ACT Government opens new Dam at end of Canberra Avenue”
“Town changes name to Queanbegone”
“Queanbeyan Floodwaters cause $20 million worth of Improvements.”
“Where’s Queanbeyan?”

Jivrashia said :

Braddon Boy said :

“there have been 5 reds in a row; I’ll put all my money on black, it’s a sure thing”.

My money won’t be where your mouth is.

Braddon Boy, you are just plainly wrong.

Do you know how permutation and combination is? Do you know how to calculate the probability of lottery, or a hand from a deck of cards?

I think you might be overlooking the fact that nature is not obliged to adhere to our modelling.

Clare Holland House is being evacuated so my FB tells me..

PLEASE DIG DEEP PEOPLE

Torrential rain hit Queanbeyan in the early hours of Wednesday 8th
December 2010.

Victims were seen wandering around aimlessly, flannies soaked,
woollen trackies sagging, muttering ‘Faaackinell’.

Flood waters devastated the area causing approximately $30 worth of
damage, $10 of that at Karabar alone.

Three areas of historic burnt out cars were disturbed. Many locals
were woken well before their Centrelink cheques arrived.

The Queanbeyan Age reported that hundreds of residents were confused
and bewildered and were still trying to come to terms with the fact that
something interesting had happened in Queanbeyan .

One resident – Tracy Maree Sharon Britney Madonna Smith, a
15-year-old Mother of 5 said ‘It was such a shock, my little
daughter Chardonnay-Mercedes came running in to my bedroom crying.
My youngest two
Joachim and River slept through it all.’

Apparently, looting, muggings and car crime were unaffected and
carried on as normal with a 95.7 % saturation rate .

The Australian Red Cross has so far managed to ship 4,000 crates of
Bacardi-Breezers to the area to help the stricken locals
particularly those at Jerrabomberra also known as Lower Tralee or East Machonachie.

Rescue workers are still searching through the rubble and have found
large quantities of personal belongings, including Health Care
Cards, Jewellery from Kmart and Bone China from Big W.

HOW CAN YOU HELP?

This appeal is to raise money for food and clothing parcels for
those unfortunate enough to be caught up in this disaster.

Clothing is most sought after – items most needed include:
flannelette Shirts, tight blue jeans or spandex, singlets (blue &
white) white sport
socks, Ugg boots and any other items usually sold in Priceline or
The Reject Shop.

Food parcels may be harder to come by, but are needed all the same.

Required foodstuffs urgently needed include: Microwave meals, Baked
Beans, Ice cream, Chips, Fizzy drinks.

Donations of $15.00 will be taken to buy a packet of winny blue

Braddon Boy said :

“there have been 5 reds in a row; I’ll put all my money on black, it’s a sure thing”.

My money won’t be where your mouth is.

Braddon Boy, you are just plainly wrong.

Do you know how permutation and combination is? Do you know how to calculate the probability of lottery, or a hand from a deck of cards?

Amoung all this water and crap I was amazed to spot a platapus in the Queanbeyan river. Yes, a genuine platapus. Probably wondering why it was swimming amount the picnic tables.

“Tragedy is when I cut my finger. Comedy is when you walk into an open sewer and die.”

So, the nineteeth largest waterfall in the world by volume is temporarily just outide Queanbeyan, and flowing through the centre of town?
Jebus.
(700 cubic meters per second is roughly 25,000 cubic feet per second)

Not quite – the report said that the capacity to flow at 10,500 cubic meters per second is there, but we’re only flowing at 700.

bj, don’t get so worked up about it. They are just reposting jokes that have been doing the rounds on email all day today. This is what happens in any tragedy, jokes are made about it. It’s just something you have to accept and don’t go flaming anyone who dares to post them.

No worries GBT. I’ll have to remember that winnie blue, flannie and bogan takeaway jokes are funny next time I’m waste-deep in crap or choking on bushfire smoke… :-\

UPDATE 9: ACTEW are justifying why water from their Googong dam is raging through Queanbeyan

“Flows over the Googong Dam Spillway are currently at approx 700 cubic metres per second,” he said.

So, the nineteeth largest waterfall in the world by volume is temporarily just outide Queanbeyan, and flowing through the centre of town?
Jebus.
(700 cubic meters per second is roughly 25,000 cubic feet per second)

Gungahlin Al2:53 pm 09 Dec 10

The debris on the lake – amazing.

bj, don’t get so worked up about it. They are just reposting jokes that have been doing the rounds on email all day today. This is what happens in any tragedy, jokes are made about it. It’s just something you have to accept and don’t go flaming anyone who dares to post them.

I found the following quote from OzChicks joke most distasteful of all:

“Donations of $15.00 will be taken to buy a packet of winny blue”

First up, they are “Winnie” blues. Secondly, they go for $16 per deck. They will probably go up to $16.10 now that they have to be delivered to the ‘improvement zone’ by helicopter. Fair dinkum! You don’t know shit about bogan culture.

Thoroughly Smashed2:45 pm 09 Dec 10

Captain RAAF said :

Can people stop calling me asking me if I’m flooded, please.

People probably just want to know whether to break out the champagne, don’t be too harsh on them.

georgesgenitals2:40 pm 09 Dec 10

From the ACTEW link:

““Flows over the Googong Dam Spillway are currently at approx 700 cubic metres per second,” he said.”

700 cubic metres a second? According to my maths that’s a touch over 60 Gigalitres per day. Our four dams combined store about 207 Gigalitres!

georgesgenitals2:38 pm 09 Dec 10

Braddon Boy said :

Braddon Boy said :

Bjnetzone, it is quite common knowledge that Queanbeyan is prone to flooding, funny that, given that it’s built on a flood plain. No one had died or to the best of my knowledge has been hurt. If people chose to live there then they have to expect this sort of thing every now and then, so why not make light of it?

Hmm – why not make light of it? Well, there’s plenty of people living in the area that are waste-deep in water this close to Christmas, plenty of businesses with a massive cleanup bill, and the flood hasn’t stopped yet. I’m sure that the Government declares disaster areas all the time as some sort of joke. What a great idea to make light of their situation. Obviously, Braddon Boy, you don’t know anyone caught up in it – I’m sure that they’d be happy that you think it’s a great laugh.

It’s a bit like that piss-funny grassfire that came through Canberra a few years back.

And troll-sniffer, quite frankly, I find it difficult to fatham that you’d be useful in any situation, let alone this one. You’re certainly not useful in this forum…

You find it difficult to fathom?

Good one.

Good one.

Braddon Boy said :

Bjnetzone, it is quite common knowledge that Queanbeyan is prone to flooding, funny that, given that it’s built on a flood plain. No one had died or to the best of my knowledge has been hurt. If people chose to live there then they have to expect this sort of thing every now and then, so why not make light of it?

Hmm – why not make light of it? Well, there’s plenty of people living in the area that are waste-deep in water this close to Christmas, plenty of businesses with a massive cleanup bill, and the flood hasn’t stopped yet. I’m sure that the Government declares disaster areas all the time as some sort of joke. What a great idea to make light of their situation. Obviously, Braddon Boy, you don’t know anyone caught up in it – I’m sure that they’d be happy that you think it’s a great laugh.

How about we let the water recede before you fools bring out your stupid brainless-twit jokes.

And troll-sniffer, quite frankly, I find it difficult to fatham that you’d be useful in any situation, let alone this one. You’re certainly not useful in this forum…

Any one else going for a look this arvo?
Any ideas about the best way to get there?
Is the zoo still open?

Jivrashia, I’m not sure if you’re being a smart ar$e or not.

If not, then you just demonstrated your (lack of) knowledge for probability maths, it’s not as simple as most people seem to think. You’re probably the sort of person at the casino playing roulette that says “there have been 5 reds in a row; I’ll put all my money on black, it’s a sure thing”.

SOURCE: National Capital Authority http://bitURL.net/avxv

All Scrivener Dam Gates May Open
9 December 2010

All five flap gates at Scrivener Dam may be opened this afternoon to regulate the water level of Lake Burley Griffin.

In preparation of opening the flap gates, Lady Denman Drive has been closed to allow the dam operators free flowing access of the area.

‘The National Capital Authority asks the public to stay away from the area around Scrivener Dam,” said Gary Rake, NCA Chief Executive.

Cycle paths near Scrivener Dam have also been cordoned off as a safety measure.

The National Capital Authority opened four of the five gates at Scrivener Dam this morning at 5.15am, 6.30am, 8.50am, and 9.30am following a water surge. There are currently three gates open.

‘A second surge is predicted within the next 12 to 24 hours. The National Capital Authority expects all five flap gates will be open mid afternoon,” said Mr Rake.

‘If all five gates are opened this afternoon, this will be the second time in Scrivener Dam’s history. The last occurrence was in 1976.

‘900 kilolitres of water per second is being released into the Molonglo River. This equates to 77 760 mega litres per day.’ said Mr Rake.

This is the fifth time the flap gates at Scrivener Dam have been opened this year.

Scrivener Dam is manned 24 hours a day during potential flood events.

I hear they declared Queanbeyan a natural disaster zone. Looks more like a natural improvement zone to me … but if they called it that, then NSW Govt may try to send them a bill instead of assistance.

Any word on how the Queanbeyan crapper works is going ???

Loxmyf said :

So all that debris from the cleanup of the willow trees upstream has reached Lake Burley Griffin. How much damage will the trees do when they hit scrivener dam gates?

My guess is no damage at all, given that with all the floodgates open, they’ll likely just float straight on over the top.

Coppins Crossing though…that could be a different matter.

Captain RAAF1:52 pm 09 Dec 10

Can people stop calling me asking me if I’m flooded, please.

printerisempty1:51 pm 09 Dec 10

Drop a shamwow..

Also last i heard Deane’s Buslines is not operating the school run today in canberra, only exception is Yass.

I work at Brindabella Park and we received a message at 12:30 saying that if we wanted to get home at all tonight then we should leave as soon as possible due to increasing flood water. The guards on various buildings were reinforcing this message as people entered thir buildings.

So all that debris from the cleanup of the willow trees upstream has reached Lake Burley Griffin. How much damage will the trees do when they hit scrivener dam gates?

I trust those responsible for not cleaning up after themselves will be footing the bill to clean up (and repair) Lake Burley Griffin

Braddon Boy said :

It is better to think of it as a 1 in 10 year ARI having a 10% chance of happening in any given year. 1 in 50 ARI is 2%, 1 in 100 ARI is 1% chance, regardless of what has happened in previous years.

Regardless of what has happened in previous years??

I don’t know about you, but I’d think that for a 1 in 10 year ARI, if it hasn’t occurred in the last 9 years, then the 10th year will definitely have a higher probability of the incident occurring (probability of 1.0 perhaps? 😉 )

Captains flat pix fixed.

Braddon Boy said :

Facet, the one in XX year ARI (Average Recurrence Interval) thing can be quite confusing for most people. It does not mean that it will happen every XX years. It is better to think of it as a 1 in 10 year ARI having a 10% chance of happening in any given year. 1 in 50 ARI is 2%, 1 in 100 ARI is 1% chance, regardless of what has happened in previous years. Also, it depends very much on where in a particular catchment you are as to what ARI you are experiencing, even for the same event.

So if there is a 50/50 chance of really heavy rain tonight and I need to get my money on with Sportzbet what are my chances of a 1 in 50 year result?

Great photos. I feel sorry for the people who have been affected by these floods, has anyone heard if the OLD cemetery is okay???? My dear grandmothers grave got washed away with the floods of the 70’s.

troll-sniffer1:34 pm 09 Dec 10

Diggety said :

bjnetzone said :

bjnetzone said :

Get back in your box troll-sniffer. Or you could actually get up of your fat backside and go and help – God forbid… You too Skidbladnir. If you can’t say something nice, positive or constructive, then shut the hell up.

Oh you want ME to get MY V8 ski boat and help them across for lunch? Other than that, I can’t think of anything useful I could do except get in the way. I though I was being positive and constructive, alerting Canberrans not to go near the two locations for their own safety, as a bogan denied junk food is likely to turn into a danger to society.

I think what bjnetzone was trying to say that you weren’t funny to begin with troll-sniffer. Therefore, try to contribute something more useful.

Captains flat pix fixed.

What, and turn this place into a dry humourless pc dogbox to scared to offend anyone? If wowsers want to have a forum like that I suggest you start one up because it’s not going to happen at the good old RA, sorry to disappoint. Do you drive a Camry by any chance?

bjnetzone said :

Get back in your box troll-sniffer. Or you could actually get up of your fat backside and go and help – God forbid… You too Skidbladnir. If you can’t say something nice, positive or constructive, then shut the hell up.

Oh you want ME to get MY V8 ski boat and help them across for lunch? Other than that, I can’t think of anything useful I could do except get in the way. I though I was being positive and constructive, alerting Canberrans not to go near the two locations for their own safety, as a bogan denied junk food is likely to turn into a danger to society.

Case in point………

X2 on the Captains Flat pics.

Captains flat pix fixed.

bjnetzone said :

bjnetzone said :

Get back in your box troll-sniffer. Or you could actually get up of your fat backside and go and help – God forbid… You too Skidbladnir. If you can’t say something nice, positive or constructive, then shut the hell up.

Oh you want ME to get MY V8 ski boat and help them across for lunch? Other than that, I can’t think of anything useful I could do except get in the way. I though I was being positive and constructive, alerting Canberrans not to go near the two locations for their own safety, as a bogan denied junk food is likely to turn into a danger to society.

I think what bjnetzone was trying to say that you weren’t funny to begin with troll-sniffer. Therefore, try to contribute something more useful.

Bjnetzone, it is quite common knowledge that Queanbeyan is prone to flooding, funny that, given that it’s built on a flood plain. No one had died or to the best of my knowledge has been hurt. If people chose to live there then they have to expect this sort of thing every now and then, so why not make light of it?

Facet, the one in XX year ARI (Average Recurrence Interval) thing can be quite confusing for most people. It does not mean that it will happen every XX years. It is better to think of it as a 1 in 10 year ARI having a 10% chance of happening in any given year. 1 in 50 ARI is 2%, 1 in 100 ARI is 1% chance, regardless of what has happened in previous years. Also, it depends very much on where in a particular catchment you are as to what ARI you are experiencing, even for the same event.

Ten news coverage was really average this morning also. They covered briefly floods in QBN then the presenter stated glibly that floods were mainly just affecting tiny regional towns. He then got an SES expert on, and his first question was whether this whole flood thing was just a beat up. (Wagga hadn’t flooded enough for his liking.)

Meanwhile they were running an ’emergency update’ of text talking of evacuating Captain’s Flat.

troll-sniffer1:09 pm 09 Dec 10

bjnetzone said :

Get back in your box troll-sniffer. Or you could actually get up of your fat backside and go and help – God forbid… You too Skidbladnir. If you can’t say something nice, positive or constructive, then shut the hell up.

Oh you want ME to get MY V8 ski boat and help them across for lunch? Other than that, I can’t think of anything useful I could do except get in the way. I though I was being positive and constructive, alerting Canberrans not to go near the two locations for their own safety, as a bogan denied junk food is likely to turn into a danger to society.

Thankfully the ABC 666 coverage has improved and gone into “extended coverage” ie running past 12 noon.
Best comment so far is that both 1974 and 1976 floods were only one in ten year floods that makes three ten year floods since 1974 – sounds about right.

Are the pics of the Captains Flat River/Dam up? Or am I missing something?

southeeplace12:56 pm 09 Dec 10

Several local historic sites in Queanbeyan have been destroyed by the flood …

the joke that keeps on giving.

Get back in your box troll-sniffer. Or you could actually get up of your fat backside and go and help – God forbid… You too Skidbladnir. If you can’t say something nice, positive or constructive, then shut the hell up.

Several local historic sites in Queanbeyan have been destroyed by the flood, including Loree-Beth’s Flannel Boutique, That Torana Dave Knocked Up Shelly In, and The Burnout Hall of Fame.
NSW SES estimates a damage bill of approximately $150.
The local economy is expected to recover quicly, as the Centrelink payment system was unaffected.

However, the Australian Red Cross has established an appeal to distribute crisis packs of Winfield Blue 25s and Breezers to any families affected. Donations of clearly branded clothing may be made at your nearest Supercheap Auto.

neanderthalsis12:28 pm 09 Dec 10

Won’t we have to get out the ark for a 1 in 5,000 year flood?

Might have to head to Bunnings for a supply of gopherwood and some pitch.

androo said :

i stand corrected, ’76 then.

I have my doubts about some of the facts in that sheet as the cycle path around the lake is 30km long, not 40 as suggested in that article.

Thoroughly Smashed12:16 pm 09 Dec 10

Nevermind, found it.
“The dam provides flood control for the Molonglo-Queanbeyan section of the Murrumbidgee
catchment and will be able to accommodate a one in 5 000-year flood. The only time in the
dam’s history that all five gates were opened was in the flood of 1976.”

Won’t we have to get out the ark for a 1 in 5,000 year flood?

Gotta laugh at Hank’s photo of “Riverside Motors”

oops.

I hope Stanhope is taking measures to protect our borders from those trying to illegally seek refuge in the ACT

But seriously, sympathies to those affected

I’ve got photos from the late 80’s/early 90’s of Scrivener Dam with at least 4 gates open like today’s pics and with downstream at similar levels. The gully that runs up past the riding school was totally flooded too.

This morning when three Scrivener gates were open, water in Woden Creek had backed up around the horse paddocks to within a couple of metres of the cyclepath bridge deck. Looking at water level below the dam on the slideshow pics (four gates open) vs the ones I took at 9.30am, I reckon Woden Creek could be within a metre of the bike path?

What a shame we have after school commitments today, I would love to see the Molonglo at Weston Ck confluence (back of RSPCA)!!

i stand corrected, ’76 then.

troll-sniffer11:35 am 09 Dec 10

Reports are filtering in of massed bogans assembling near the entrance to Riverside Plaza and the Central Cafe demanding that the SES ferry them across to Maccas and Hungry Jacks as a healthy breakfast leads to a productive and healthy lifestyle. Queanbeyan police are involved in running skirmishes with more bogans down near the low level crossing who are trying to launch V8 ski boats in a heroic effort to get across to KFC for the luncheon feast.

Skidbladnir said :

Anyone know when the last time Scrivener Dam had five gates in flow?

only once ever, in 1974

Anyone know when the last time Scrivener Dam had five gates in flow?

Nevermind, found it.
“The dam provides flood control for the Molonglo-Queanbeyan section of the Murrumbidgee
catchment and will be able to accommodate a one in 5 000-year flood. The only time in the
dam’s history that all five gates were opened was in the flood of 1976.”

Anyone know when the last time Scrivener Dam had five gates in flow?

Canberra Times front page tomorrow morning: Natural disaster causes $20m in improvements to Queanbeyan.

georgesgenitals11:12 am 09 Dec 10

That pic of Googong is pretty crazy…

ABC 666 did such a good job during the bush fires however their response to floods is well below par. All the “experts” they have spoken to so far have not had a clue. One, in Goulburn, said he was not sure what the situation was with the Queanbeyan River, doh.
One said if you found yourself in a life threatening situation, call 000. Alex Sloan asked Steve Whan how he knew what was happening in the region – his response “I live here”. Riveting stuff.

Scrivener Dam photo is amazing !

Fnaah – I got the same, and that must have caused the confusion.

Apparently the flooded Brindabella Park pics are from the big storm on Saturday night.

Ahh, that explains it.

JClarke, I’m at Majura. Someone emailed pictures of one of the streets at BPP underwater, and a small waterfall cascading off the multistory carpark stairs near the gym.

Apparently the flooded Brindabella Park pics are from the big storm on Saturday night.

Damage now reported to be in the tens of dollars.

Well send it in!

I hear large parts of Brindabella Park have been evacuated due to rising waters out there too.

Where did you hear this from? Impossible. I work at Brindabella Park and there is no such evacuation occuring here.

Pics have been doing the rounds in the public service emails. I saw pics of Brindabella Business Park being flooded.

I hear large parts of Brindabella Park have been evacuated due to rising waters out there too.

Holden Caulfield10:32 am 09 Dec 10

@ Captain RAAF

“Told you all to prep for this about 3 months ago!

But did anybody listen? Noooooooooooooo!”

Surely you’re used to being ignored by now?!

Recent events have got me wondering at what point the ESA (in Canberra) would consider using the emergency warning phone thingy??

I know several people who work in Civic who were blissfully unaware of last Thursday’s massive storm in Weston Ck and Woden UNTIL they got home at 6pm to find unexpected indoor water features…

They also mentionede QBN evacuating Forbes st, and one other street.

The SES have details on which streets are being evacuated here.

http://www.ses.nsw.gov.au/events/17479.html

I work on Crawford street, and the notable lack of anyone picking up the phone when I call work suggests they have probably been evacuated already. The flooding must be pretty severe.

Captain RAAF10:22 am 09 Dec 10

Told you all to prep for this about 3 months ago!

But did anybody listen? Noooooooooooooo!

They also mentionede QBN evacuating Forbes st, and one other street.

The Ten news crawling update said the dam has failed and residents to stand by for evacuation.

troll-sniffer9:42 am 09 Dec 10

I’ll be first to say it… might be a good thing!

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