8 January 2013

Monster fire day. Bans, closures.

| johnboy
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NSW emergency brass are on ABC News24 right now worried about the end of the world tomorrow.

In towns as close as Braidwood and including the Illawarra and Shoalhaven regions they’re asking tourists to clear out.

We will, of course, keep you posted.


UPDATE 07/01/13 14:13: The ACT’s ESA has now issued a fire ban and extreme fire danger warning:

ACT Emergency Services Agency A/g Commissioner Tony Graham has declared a Total Fire Ban for the whole of the ACT under Section 114 of the Emergencies Act 2004 from:

12:00am January 8, 2013 to 23:59pm January 8, 2013.

The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting a very hot and windy day with a forecast top temperature of 38 degrees.

The forecast Fire Danger Rating for tomorrow in the ACT is predicted to be EXTREME.

The community is urged to report any smoke or fire sightings immediately to Emergency Triple Zero (000).

If a fire starts at the forecast fire danger level of EXTREME it may be uncontrollable, unpredictable and fast moving flames will be higher than roof tops.

There is a very high likelihood that people in the path of the fire will be injured or die. Many homes and businesses will be destroyed.

Only well prepared, well constructed and actively defended houses are likely to offer safety during a fire.

Thousands of embers will be blown around.

Spot fires will move quickly and come from many directions, up to 6 km ahead of the fire.

For your survival leaving is the best option. You should relocate to the location identified in your Bushfire Survival Plan.

The ESA advises you to make sure you know where you will get more information and monitor the situation for any changes. You can do this through local ACT media outlets, the ESA website www.esa.act.gov.au, the ESA Twitter and Facebook accounts or by calling Canberra Connect on 13 22 81.

To find out more about Total Fire Bans log on to the ACT Emergency Services Agency website www.esa.act.gov.au or call Canberra Connect on 13 22 81.


UPDATE 07/01/13 14:21: TAMS are closing roads and reserves:

Territory and Municipal Services wishes to advise that due to a total fire ban, which is in place tomorrow (Tuesday 8 January 2013), the following nature reserves and roads will be closed:

    — Tidbinbilla Nature Reserve (the Visitor Centre will remain open);

    — selected roads within Namadgi National Park including Apollo Road, Orroral Road, Old Mill Road, Warks Road, Mount Franklin Road at Piccadilly Circus, and the Corin Dam Road (the

    — Namadgi Visitor Centre will remain open);

    — Googong Foreshores;

    — Lower Molonglo River Corridor; and

    — Mulligans Flat Woodlands Sanctuary.

Note that the Boboyan Road and Brindabella Road remain open to through traffic.

Additionally Namadgi National Park, Tidbinbilla Nature Reserve, Googong Foreshores as well as Kowen Forest will remain closed from tomorrow until 7 am Saturday 12 January 2013 in the interests of public safety.


UPDATE 07/01/13 14:28: The NSW RFS website now has “CATASTROPHIC” (the new one worse than EXTREME) fire danger warnings for the following regions tomorrow:

    — Illawarra/Shoalhaven,

    — Southern Ranges,

Which is all very close to home.

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switch said :

Evil_Kitten said :

I know they’ve closed down National Parks in NSW but I’m just wondering about spots in Canberra? Are our picnic areas still open, such as Uriarra etc?

Good Luck finding the information. Clicking on the obvious, “Nature reserve and road closures” on http://www.tams.act.gov.au does nothing. I know I found info eventually yesterday, through a long and devious route, but I just can’t remember how I did it. Casurina Sands (the one I was interested in) wasn’t on the list of closed places.

Thanks, there’s info there now, looks like it was updated this afternoon.

Pork Hunt said :

thebrownstreak69 said :

el said :

thebrownstreak69 said :

el said :

This site is being updated regularly:

http://www.facebook.com/nswincidents.weather

Not much good for the non FB users amongst us.

Really? You can view the entire page and all posted updates without signing in or having an account.

Hey, you can too! Thanks!

Oh cock! I just logged in to mutter darkly about social media on well, social media of sorts…
Ironic.

Alanis, is that you?

LSWCHP said :

Comic_and_Gamer_Nerd said :

LSWCHP said :

Gungahlin Al said :

Things that start fires that people might not think about:
* slashing/mowing dry grass and hitting a stone
* parking a petrol-fueled car over grass
* glass bottle in roadside litter
* welding, angle grinding.

It’s not all about cigarettes…

Yeah. I recall firing a couple of hundred rounds of tracer and ball from an M-60 one hot day back in the drought of the early 1980’s. After I finished shooting we all raced up to the other end of the range and spent half an hour with beaters, rakes and backpack sprays putting out numerous small fires. So if you’re thinking of opening up with tracer tomorrow, please reconsider. 🙂

Anyway, my brother-in-law is a senior fulltime firefighter. They live on a bush block in rural NSW, and they’re not taking any chances. They’ve got everything precious packed and are ready to bail out at a couple of minutes notice. It might turn out to be nothing, or it could be huge.

Holsworthy 1989. M-60 shoot with trace. Everything behind the butts caught fire and ended our day most prematurely 🙂

Something similar much more recently at majura range, but with a smoke grenade lol

OK, so it looks like the question should really be “Is there any current or ex serviceman who *hasn’t* started a fire on the range with ammunition or pyrotechnics?” 🙂

I haven’t started a fire but after one shoot, the ADG said “If we ever go war, we’ll have to give you twice as much ammunition as everyone else…”

Comic_and_Gamer_Nerd said :

LSWCHP said :

Gungahlin Al said :

Things that start fires that people might not think about:
* slashing/mowing dry grass and hitting a stone
* parking a petrol-fueled car over grass
* glass bottle in roadside litter
* welding, angle grinding.

It’s not all about cigarettes…

Yeah. I recall firing a couple of hundred rounds of tracer and ball from an M-60 one hot day back in the drought of the early 1980’s. After I finished shooting we all raced up to the other end of the range and spent half an hour with beaters, rakes and backpack sprays putting out numerous small fires. So if you’re thinking of opening up with tracer tomorrow, please reconsider. 🙂

Anyway, my brother-in-law is a senior fulltime firefighter. They live on a bush block in rural NSW, and they’re not taking any chances. They’ve got everything precious packed and are ready to bail out at a couple of minutes notice. It might turn out to be nothing, or it could be huge.

Holsworthy 1989. M-60 shoot with trace. Everything behind the butts caught fire and ended our day most prematurely 🙂

Something similar much more recently at majura range, but with a smoke grenade lol

OK, so it looks like the question should really be “Is there any current or ex serviceman who *hasn’t* started a fire on the range with ammunition or pyrotechnics?” 🙂

Evil_Kitten said :

I know they’ve closed down National Parks in NSW but I’m just wondering about spots in Canberra? Are our picnic areas still open, such as Uriarra etc?

Good Luck finding the information. Clicking on the obvious, “Nature reserve and road closures” on http://www.tams.act.gov.au does nothing. I know I found info eventually yesterday, through a long and devious route, but I just can’t remember how I did it. Casurina Sands (the one I was interested in) wasn’t on the list of closed places.

Comic_and_Gamer_Nerd8:15 am 09 Jan 13

LSWCHP said :

Gungahlin Al said :

Things that start fires that people might not think about:
* slashing/mowing dry grass and hitting a stone
* parking a petrol-fueled car over grass
* glass bottle in roadside litter
* welding, angle grinding.

It’s not all about cigarettes…

Yeah. I recall firing a couple of hundred rounds of tracer and ball from an M-60 one hot day back in the drought of the early 1980’s. After I finished shooting we all raced up to the other end of the range and spent half an hour with beaters, rakes and backpack sprays putting out numerous small fires. So if you’re thinking of opening up with tracer tomorrow, please reconsider. 🙂

Anyway, my brother-in-law is a senior fulltime firefighter. They live on a bush block in rural NSW, and they’re not taking any chances. They’ve got everything precious packed and are ready to bail out at a couple of minutes notice. It might turn out to be nothing, or it could be huge.

Holsworthy 1989. M-60 shoot with trace. Everything behind the butts caught fire and ended our day most prematurely 🙂

Something similar much more recently at majura range, but with a smoke grenade lol

I know they’ve closed down National Parks in NSW but I’m just wondering about spots in Canberra? Are our picnic areas still open, such as Uriarra etc?

thebrownstreak69 said :

el said :

thebrownstreak69 said :

el said :

This site is being updated regularly:

http://www.facebook.com/nswincidents.weather

Not much good for the non FB users amongst us.

Really? You can view the entire page and all posted updates without signing in or having an account.

Hey, you can too! Thanks!

Oh cock! I just logged in to mutter darkly about social media on well, social media of sorts…
Ironic.

thebrownstreak694:13 pm 08 Jan 13

el said :

thebrownstreak69 said :

el said :

This site is being updated regularly:

http://www.facebook.com/nswincidents.weather

Not much good for the non FB users amongst us.

Really? You can view the entire page and all posted updates without signing in or having an account.

Hey, you can too! Thanks!

thebrownstreak69 said :

el said :

This site is being updated regularly:

http://www.facebook.com/nswincidents.weather

Not much good for the non FB users amongst us.

Really? You can view the entire page and all posted updates without signing in or having an account.

thebrownstreak693:32 pm 08 Jan 13

el said :

This site is being updated regularly:

http://www.facebook.com/nswincidents.weather

Not much good for the non FB users amongst us.

Madam Cholet3:09 pm 08 Jan 13

I can’t get on the NSW RFS site at all now. It was good info this morning though. Think I’ll stick to ABC info via radio and twitter.

Mothy said :

clicking through to one of the news alerts for the three noted fires in Namadgi (Sentry Box Mountain, Mt Ginini, and Rendezvous Creek) doesn’t give current information on those fires

This morning the NSW RFS site gave more detailed info on each fire (you had to hunt a bit for it) including what had been done, who might be threatened, wind direction, fire speed etc. – genuinely useful information if you’re possibly in the path. That’s now been removed, I suspect due to their server falling over from excess database requests. Hence the information available is much less useful.

Alderney said :

Is it time to ban smoking on days such as these?

Cigarettes are, after all, a naked flame capable of starting a bushfire when not disposed of properly. Especially from a moving vehicle.

Discuss…

For off, it is not a naked flame, if it is you’re doing it wrong. Secondly, good luck with that.

Also find it interesting that when looking at the ACT Rural Fire Service page, the Bushfire Updates link takes you back to the ESA’s incident map, where clicking through to one of the news alerts for the three noted fires in Namadgi (Sentry Box Mountain, Mt Ginini, and Rendezvous Creek) doesn’t give current information on those fires i.e. currently updates 9, 9 and 5, all from around 6am this morning, the link goes back to the original notice for each fire i.e. 9pm Saturday, 2:49am Sunday, and 6:43pm Sunday.

Yes, I have e-mailed ESA, so am not just having a whinge online.

PantsMan said :

And we’re off:

Major Fire Updates

Emergency Warning – Yarrabin Fire (Cooma-Monaro LGA) 08/01/13 09:28
Posted: 08/01/2013

An Emergency Warning has been issued for an out of control bush fire burning in the Numeralla area.

Current Information

The bush fire is burning in the Mount Forest Road Carlaminda area and is expected to impact on number of rural properties anytime before 9.30am this morning.

Advice

People in the area of Mount Forest Road Carlaminda should seek shelter as the fire impacts. Protect yourself from the radiant heat.

Leave only if the path is clear. If safe to do so, residents can relocate to the north along Mount Forest Road

http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/dsp_content.cfm?cat_id=684

The wording of that advice has already changed to say it is too late to leave (updated 9:37):

It is now too late to leave. People in the area of Mount Forest Road Carlaminda should shelter in place as the fire impacts.

Was interested in why WIN News Twitter said

“WIN News Canberra ?@WINNews_ACT

EMERGENCY WARNING: Fire is expected to impact properties on Mount Forest Rd Carlaminda within minutes. People should leave/seek shelter.”

Yet in the same minute ABC news said:

“abcnewsACT ?@abcnewsACT

Emergency warning for out of control bush fire at Numeralla near Cooma. People near Mount Forest Road at Carlaminda should seek shelter. ”

Follow the emergency services directly folks, and check all information is current.

Stay safe.

And we’re off:

Major Fire Updates

Emergency Warning – Yarrabin Fire (Cooma-Monaro LGA) 08/01/13 09:28
Posted: 08/01/2013

An Emergency Warning has been issued for an out of control bush fire burning in the Numeralla area.

Current Information

The bush fire is burning in the Mount Forest Road Carlaminda area and is expected to impact on number of rural properties anytime before 9.30am this morning.

Advice

People in the area of Mount Forest Road Carlaminda should seek shelter as the fire impacts. Protect yourself from the radiant heat.

Leave only if the path is clear. If safe to do so, residents can relocate to the north along Mount Forest Road

http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/dsp_content.cfm?cat_id=684

I’m confused. I haven’t ever lived in NSW, yet I received the RFS SMS warning. My wife did not. How did they determine which numbers received the warnings and which did not?

On the plus side, it was spelt correctly with no outlandish spelling errors – kudos!

Is it time to ban smoking on days such as these?

Cigarettes are, after all, a naked flame capable of starting a bushfire when not disposed of properly. Especially from a moving vehicle.

Discuss…

Pork Hunt said :

I just received an SMS from http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au warning of a catastrophic fire danger tomorrow. I live in Qbn.
It’s nice that someone cares…:-)

As did I. They also left a message on my home answering machine at 10pm last night!

Grassfires this year have the potential to be very destructive. Several years of La Niña growth and the rise of invasive highly flammable tall and dense monocultures like African Lovegrass means exceptional intensity and speed. Parks have been warning rural holders of the growing risk for a couple of seasons.

Got a flurry of automated text messages, plus recorded messages on the landline. it’s the bloody wind that’s going to be the problem. And now we have a fast-moving lot of dry storms racing through Wagga towards just south of us.

How often do we have 38’s?

I remember as a kid getting them all the time.

I also remember stopping out in the bush when it was 45, with a complete lack of fire.

Canberra people have more to worry about having the power fail (due to the heat) and not having water than facing a fire.

WARNING: ACT GOVERNMENT ATTEMPTING TO DO SOMETHING.

Prepare NOW.

Activate your disaster plan NOW.

Consider leaving NOW.

The main difference between tomorrow and 2003 is that there isn’t a fire already going when the day begins! A fire that is already out of control mid morning will burn many times more country than one that gets of of control mid afternoon. Regardless of what word is chosen to describe the fire danger, people know to be extra careful not to cause a fire and they know that if a fire starts then it’s going to be a headache.
Re mowers and brushcutters – best not to use them in dry grass in heat of the day even if you have no rocks as fires can result from friction heated material wound around shafts or adjacent to over-heated bearings.

Bails said :

Roundhead89 said :

shirty_bear said :

38C and 45km/h westerlies, huh? This is getting up near the sort of conditions we had on the day Cbr burned back in ’03 … according to wiki, it was 40C and 60km/h that day. Most unpleasant.

Could everybody please stop panicking? The 2003 bushfires came during a drought which had already been underway for four years. The district was tinder dry and this contributed greatly to the severity of the firestorm. By contrast we have recently emerged from an almost three year La Nina and the grasslands are still fairly green and lush. I suggest everybody takes a chill pill.

Uhh. While I don’t thing people should panic either, I think you’re a touch wrong. The above-average rainfall over the past few years has meant RFS hasn’t been able to burn off anywhere near as much of the surrounding bushland as they’d like. It’s also helped grass grow to be very tall, and the recent hot weather has dried it all out.

Grass fires are much more intense and fast, I would suggest.

Let’s not forget that the fires that burned through Canberra houses were heading our way for days and it wasn’t until they joined up and got fanned by huge winds into pine forest across the road from housing that disaster struck. It was an “accident” waiting to happen.

The practice of planting lots of nice fire-friendly gum trees throughout newer suburbs just makes me wonder what planners are thinking.

Gungahlin Al said :

Things that start fires that people might not think about:
* slashing/mowing dry grass and hitting a stone
* parking a petrol-fueled car over grass
* glass bottle in roadside litter
* welding, angle grinding.

It’s not all about cigarettes…

Yeah. I recall firing a couple of hundred rounds of tracer and ball from an M-60 one hot day back in the drought of the early 1980’s. After I finished shooting we all raced up to the other end of the range and spent half an hour with beaters, rakes and backpack sprays putting out numerous small fires. So if you’re thinking of opening up with tracer tomorrow, please reconsider. 🙂

Anyway, my brother-in-law is a senior fulltime firefighter. They live on a bush block in rural NSW, and they’re not taking any chances. They’ve got everything precious packed and are ready to bail out at a couple of minutes notice. It might turn out to be nothing, or it could be huge.

trevar said :

This ridiculous notion of having a fire danger called ‘catastrophic’ is absurd. The descriptor ‘catastrophic’ can’t be applied prior to an event occurring for very good reason. The word catastrophe means either unexpected and bad, or worse than expected. in Ancient Greek, where the word came from, it means the reversal of expectations.

So if they’re predicting something ‘catastrophic’, they’re either predicting the opposite of their predictions, or they’re predicting that it will be worse than they’re predicting, or they’re predicting that it won’t be as bad as they’re predicting. Whichever it is, their predictions are, by definition, inaccurate, because nothing that’s catastrophic can be predicted.

However good these folk might be at their jobs, I think they should get someone at least semi-literate to do their communications and describe fire danger accurately, instead of confusing us with this oxymoron.

Thankfully they didn’t pick you.

-Catastrophe: a violent usually destructive natural event – Merriam-Webster dictionary.
-Catastrophe: an event causing great and usually sudden damage or suffering; a disaster – Oxford Dictionary

It’s a perfectly appropriate term.

I just received an SMS from http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au warning of a catastrophic fire danger tomorrow. I live in Qbn.
It’s nice that someone cares…:-)

switch said :

trevar said :

However good these folk might be at their jobs, I think they should get someone at least semi-literate to do their communications and describe fire danger accurately, instead of confusing us with this oxymoron.

You prefer the even sillier “Code Red” descriptor some states use? Whatever it means outside American hospital dramas. At least catastrophic gets people paying attention.

I’d prefer anything that actually makes sense, rather than an oxymoron. “Code Red” has more meaning than “catastrophic”, so yes that would be preferable, but better still would be “extreme”. Personally, I’m not paying attention to the fire danger, I’m too distracted by the misuse of a word…

Gungahlin Al8:31 pm 07 Jan 13

Settle down people. As much the sensational news reports want you to believe that everything is pointing to a repeat of 2003, it isn’t.

Problem is Thumper, that these days if they don’t give serious and grave warnings, then when the spam does hit the fan, there are endless years of people searching for someone to blame.

Settle down people. As much the sensational news reports want you to believe that everything is pointing to a repeat of 2003, it isn’t.

Peter, Peter Lucas Smith, is that you?

In any case, the Fire Index for tomorrow will be 77, just inside the ‘Extreme’ range, but well short of the catastrophic category so the ACT is certainly a lot better off than a number of places.

Bails said :

Grass fires are much more intense and fast, I would suggest.

Than a pine and eucalypt fueled fire storm? I’d suggest not.

Golden-Alpine6:50 pm 07 Jan 13

Gungahlin Al said :

Oh and for anyone in any way in a possible hazard zone: tonight is the night to back up all your computers/photos/papers onto an external drive so you can take it to work tomorrow.

When I listened through all the survival interviews after the Victorian fires, it was amazing how many people got themselves into trouble because they were trying to gather up papers and photos and things too late.

After 2003 I would have thought we could assume most of Canberra is in a hazard zone. Some more than others….

Gungahlin Al4:39 pm 07 Jan 13

Oh and for anyone in any way in a possible hazard zone: tonight is the night to back up all your computers/photos/papers onto an external drive so you can take it to work tomorrow.

When I listened through all the survival interviews after the Victorian fires, it was amazing how many people got themselves into trouble because they were trying to gather up papers and photos and things too late.

Roundhead89 said :

shirty_bear said :

38C and 45km/h westerlies, huh? This is getting up near the sort of conditions we had on the day Cbr burned back in ’03 … according to wiki, it was 40C and 60km/h that day. Most unpleasant.

Could everybody please stop panicking? The 2003 bushfires came during a drought which had already been underway for four years. The district was tinder dry and this contributed greatly to the severity of the firestorm. By contrast we have recently emerged from an almost three year La Nina and the grasslands are still fairly green and lush. I suggest everybody takes a chill pill.

Uhh. While I don’t thing people should panic either, I think you’re a touch wrong. The above-average rainfall over the past few years has meant RFS hasn’t been able to burn off anywhere near as much of the surrounding bushland as they’d like. It’s also helped grass grow to be very tall, and the recent hot weather has dried it all out.

Grass fires are much more intense and fast, I would suggest.

wildturkeycanoe4:33 pm 07 Jan 13

Roundhead89 said :

shirty_bear said :

38C and 45km/h westerlies, huh? This is getting up near the sort of conditions we had on the day Cbr burned back in ’03 … according to wiki, it was 40C and 60km/h that day. Most unpleasant.

Could everybody please stop panicking? The 2003 bushfires came during a drought which had already been underway for four years. The district was tinder dry and this contributed greatly to the severity of the firestorm. By contrast we have recently emerged from an almost three year La Nina and the grasslands are still fairly green and lush. I suggest everybody takes a chill pill.

There was also a whooping great pine forest to the west to fuel the fires, now there’s just fields of partially dry grass. We also have a system in place to stop the disaster repeating, wasn’t that what all the fuss and money spent achieved after 2003??

johnboy said :

Brindabella said :

According to http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/dsp_TOBAN_HTML.cfm, it’s OK to light a fire today! Time to fire up the Weber in the middle of the Shoalhaven!

If the fire brigrade judge that the day after tomorrow is “Catastrophic”, why on Earth would they not declare a total fire ban from that time on….?!?

My understanding is that, at least in NSW, fire bans have to be gazetted to have legal effect.

We don’t really want our governments getting in the habit of banning things without letting us know.

http://the-riotact.com/should-you-trust-the-government/91303

trevar said :

However good these folk might be at their jobs, I think they should get someone at least semi-literate to do their communications and describe fire danger accurately, instead of confusing us with this oxymoron.

You prefer the even sillier “Code Red” descriptor some states use? Whatever it means outside American hospital dramas. At least catastrophic gets people paying attention.

Chop71 said :

I hope the police are out catching idiots with matches.

Anyone caught arseing about in that way, or dropping lit butts, or having a back yard rubbish burn should get a one way ticket to Somalia, courtesy of the ACT govt.

Gungahlin Al4:15 pm 07 Jan 13

Things that start fires that people might not think about:
* slashing/mowing dry grass and hitting a stone
* parking a petrol-fueled car over grass
* glass bottle in roadside litter
* welding, angle grinding.

It’s not all about cigarettes…

johnboy said :

Brindabella said :

According to http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/dsp_TOBAN_HTML.cfm, it’s OK to light a fire today! Time to fire up the Weber in the middle of the Shoalhaven!

If the fire brigrade judge that the day after tomorrow is “Catastrophic”, why on Earth would they not declare a total fire ban from that time on….?!?

My understanding is that, at least in NSW, fire bans have to be gazetted to have legal effect.

We don’t really want our governments getting in the habit of banning things without letting us know.

Bureaucracy gone mad. Tell that to the people who lose everything tomorrow.

The NSWFS page is being updated by the minute! Why wouldn’t they have a total fire ban today!?

Who is going to sue because their sausages couldn’t be cooked?

They NSWFS know. They are the agency. Common sense should prevail.

Brindabella said :

According to http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/dsp_TOBAN_HTML.cfm, it’s OK to light a fire today! Time to fire up the Weber in the middle of the Shoalhaven!

If the fire brigrade judge that the day after tomorrow is “Catastrophic”, why on Earth would they not declare a total fire ban from that time on….?!?

My understanding is that, at least in NSW, fire bans have to be gazetted to have legal effect.

We don’t really want our governments getting in the habit of banning things without letting us know.

According to http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/dsp_TOBAN_HTML.cfm, it’s OK to light a fire today! Time to fire up the Weber in the middle of the Shoalhaven!

If the fire brigrade judge that the day after tomorrow is “Catastrophic”, why on Earth would they not declare a total fire ban from that time on….?!?

shirty_bear said :

38C and 45km/h westerlies, huh? This is getting up near the sort of conditions we had on the day Cbr burned back in ’03 … according to wiki, it was 40C and 60km/h that day. Most unpleasant.

Could everybody please stop panicking? The 2003 bushfires came during a drought which had already been underway for four years. The district was tinder dry and this contributed greatly to the severity of the firestorm. By contrast we have recently emerged from an almost three year La Nina and the grasslands are still fairly green and lush. I suggest everybody takes a chill pill.

This ridiculous notion of having a fire danger called ‘catastrophic’ is absurd. The descriptor ‘catastrophic’ can’t be applied prior to an event occurring for very good reason. The word catastrophe means either unexpected and bad, or worse than expected. in Ancient Greek, where the word came from, it means the reversal of expectations.

So if they’re predicting something ‘catastrophic’, they’re either predicting the opposite of their predictions, or they’re predicting that it will be worse than they’re predicting, or they’re predicting that it won’t be as bad as they’re predicting. Whichever it is, their predictions are, by definition, inaccurate, because nothing that’s catastrophic can be predicted.

However good these folk might be at their jobs, I think they should get someone at least semi-literate to do their communications and describe fire danger accurately, instead of confusing us with this oxymoron.

Chop71 said :

I hope the police are out catching idiots with matches.

I followed a dick in a Kenworth out of Cooma yesterday, the thermometer in the car was nudging 40 & he threw a cigarette butt out the window…….

38C and 45km/h westerlies, huh? This is getting up near the sort of conditions we had on the day Cbr burned back in ’03 … according to wiki, it was 40C and 60km/h that day. Most unpleasant.

I hope the police are out catching idiots with matches.

muscledude_oz2:36 pm 07 Jan 13

14:25 Mon: Total Fire Ban just declared for the ACT on Tuesday.

Samuel Gordon-Stewart2:18 pm 07 Jan 13

It’s extraordinary how the ESA website updates in the few minutes it takes me to write a comment…

Samuel Gordon-Stewart2:16 pm 07 Jan 13

Nothing online? Let’s do this in chronological order:

11:25AM: Bushfirefire Conditions “awful” on Tuesday (Daily Tele/AAP) http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/breaking-news/bushfire-conditions-awful-on-tuesday/story-e6freuz0-1226548687055

12:23PM: “Catastrophic conditions”: Bushfire danger as mercury to hit 45 degress (SMH) http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/catastrophic-conditions-bushfire-danger-as-mercury-to-hit-45-degrees-20130107-2cbto.html

1:15PM: PM urges vigilance in NSW amid hot temps (Daily Tele/AAP) http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/breaking-news/pm-urges-vigilance-in-nsw-amid-hot-temps/story-e6freuz0-1226548880889

1:55PM: NSW faces “worst ever” fire danger day (ABC) http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-07/nsw-faces-27worst-ever27-fire-danger-day/4455368?section=nsw

And then there’s the fire danger page on the NSW RFS website. The “tomorrow” column lists a total fire ban for all of NSW tomorrow, but not the ACT. Our authorities might get around to following suit soon. http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/dsp_TOBAN_HTML.cfm

Now with our own ESA’s total fire ban and extreme fire danger notice.

A forecast of 38 degrees with 50 km/h winds and humidity below 10%, not unexpected then.

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