29 August 2024

It's not over yet! The Raiders can still make the finals. Here's how

| Tim Gavel
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Raiders warming up at GIO Stadium before their final game of the 2024 season at home

The Raiders warming up at GIO Stadium before the game against the Panthers: did anyone other than the Raiders believe they would knock over the premiers? Photo: Jennifer Andrew.

It is with a certain amount of trepidation that I start this column by saying, mathematically, with two rounds to go, the Raiders can still make the finals.

It is usually an indication that they have no hope.

The reality is the Raiders’ season still has a pulse in the wake of their best performance of the year – a 22-18 victory over the Panthers.

They beat a Panthers side without Nathan Cleary but boasting five members of the victorious NSW State of Origin team.

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Looking at the statistics from the game, it’s hard to believe the Raiders won.

The Panthers had 53 per cent of possession, completed more run metres than the Raiders, more post-contact metres than Canberra, and led the line breaks 7-2.

It has given life to the Raiders season, which looked dead and buried after the 42-4 loss to the Cowboys in Townsville.

Somehow, they lifted themselves off the canvas to beat the three-peating Panthers.

But the road to the finals is littered with potholes.

Five teams remain in the race for a position in the top eight, with the Dragons currently holding down eighth on 28 points.

In pursuit is a chasing pack of four. These teams are two points behind the Dragons, which includes the Raiders along with the Broncos, the Dolphins and the Knights.

What makes things even more intriguing is the fact that in the final two rounds, each of the five teams will play at least one of their rivals vying for that elusive final position in the top eight.

For instance, in the remaining two rounds, we will see the Dragons play the Raiders, the Broncos take on the Dolphins, while the Knights also play the Dolphins.

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To have any hope, the Raiders need to win their remaining two games against the Roosters and the Dragons, as well as rely on other results going their way.

This is essentially the case because of the Raiders’ poor for and against record, which is minus 131. It is the worst of any team still in the finals race.

Of the remaining teams in the race for the final position, the Dolphins look vulnerable after losing five of their past six games. They will face the Knights and the Broncos.

The Broncos play the Storm in the final round, and if they win both their remaining two games and the Dragons lose one, the Broncos will make it through with their superior for and against.

Essentially, all five teams head into this weekend’s penultimate round with some optimism.

For the Raiders to even be in with a mathematical chance, they will need to do something they haven’t done so far this season. They will need to win three games in a row.

Four times this year, they have won two on the trot. To win three in a row, even if they don’t make the finals, will be seen as a building block for 2025.

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They just have to win 6 games straight.

Bennett Bennett4:35 pm 29 Aug 24

The Raiders did well this year with all the injuries and new and young players. It’s a tough ask to physically and mentally stand-up on a weekly basis. The fatigue showed in recent games. I think we could have finished in position 8 or 7 easily, should we have won a couple more games, and not lost Fogarty for so long earlier in the year.

This is such a cop out comment. “If only we won 5 more games…”. Why do we put up with this mediocrity? Probably because we are mediocre people.

My thoughts are that for the Raiders to make it, they have to keep winning, but because winning handicaps them, the Raiders can’t make it.
Since at least 2020 – the year after making the GF – the team has never failed – not even once, I don’t think – to disappoint after showing signs of form.
I think this makes them the only team in league history to exhibit this bizarre kind of behaviour.
I *believe this is due to either winning making them over confident and complacent, or instilling in them a touch of the imposter syndrome, whereby they start to fear not living up to past success.
Either way, the team appears to have a mental weakness.

*None of this is meant as medical advice, but is simply for entertainment purposes only.

Agree 100%. Time to make some managerial changes I think.

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