The Raiders warming up at GIO Stadium before the game against the Panthers: did anyone other than the Raiders believe they would knock over the premiers? Photo: Jennifer Andrew.
It is with a certain amount of trepidation that I start this column by saying, mathematically, with two rounds to go, the Raiders can still make the finals.
It is usually an indication that they have no hope.
The reality is the Raiders’ season still has a pulse in the wake of their best performance of the year – a 22-18 victory over the Panthers.
They beat a Panthers side without Nathan Cleary but boasting five members of the victorious NSW State of Origin team.
Looking at the statistics from the game, it’s hard to believe the Raiders won.
The Panthers had 53 per cent of possession, completed more run metres than the Raiders, more post-contact metres than Canberra, and led the line breaks 7-2.
It has given life to the Raiders season, which looked dead and buried after the 42-4 loss to the Cowboys in Townsville.
Somehow, they lifted themselves off the canvas to beat the three-peating Panthers.
But the road to the finals is littered with potholes.
Five teams remain in the race for a position in the top eight, with the Dragons currently holding down eighth on 28 points.
In pursuit is a chasing pack of four. These teams are two points behind the Dragons, which includes the Raiders along with the Broncos, the Dolphins and the Knights.
What makes things even more intriguing is the fact that in the final two rounds, each of the five teams will play at least one of their rivals vying for that elusive final position in the top eight.
For instance, in the remaining two rounds, we will see the Dragons play the Raiders, the Broncos take on the Dolphins, while the Knights also play the Dolphins.
To have any hope, the Raiders need to win their remaining two games against the Roosters and the Dragons, as well as rely on other results going their way.
This is essentially the case because of the Raiders’ poor for and against record, which is minus 131. It is the worst of any team still in the finals race.
Of the remaining teams in the race for the final position, the Dolphins look vulnerable after losing five of their past six games. They will face the Knights and the Broncos.
The Broncos play the Storm in the final round, and if they win both their remaining two games and the Dragons lose one, the Broncos will make it through with their superior for and against.
Essentially, all five teams head into this weekend’s penultimate round with some optimism.
For the Raiders to even be in with a mathematical chance, they will need to do something they haven’t done so far this season. They will need to win three games in a row.
Four times this year, they have won two on the trot. To win three in a row, even if they don’t make the finals, will be seen as a building block for 2025.
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