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Canberra southside suburbs top mortgage stress list

By Amy McPhillips 27 September 2016 31

mortgage default risk canberra

Homeowners in Kambah, Tuggeranong, Greenway, Oxley and Wanniassa are at the highest risk of mortgage default in Australia.

That’s according to 2015 research by consultancy firm Digital Finance Analytics, which used housing finance data, employment data, loan default data and arrears information to calculate the top 100 Australian postcodes where people could face financial collapse when interest rates rise.

Canberra postcodes 2902 (Kambah), 2900 (Tuggeranong and Greenway) and 2903 (Oxley and Wanniassa) topped the list, ahead of all Tasmanian suburbs, Queensland’s mining belt and the outer suburbs of Melbourne.

The Australian Financial Review commented that like Southern Tasmania, Darwin and Southern Gippsland, Canberra’s outer suburbs have “been hit hard by a mix of industrial closure, high unemployment and low wages growth, which leaves residents vulnerable to financial collapse.”

Homeowners under 35 were found to be most at risk of default.

Digital Finance Analytics principal Martin North told the Australian Financial Review that young homebuyers have been lured into the market by record low interest rates and rising property values.

“My view is these are households that are maxed-up because of the debt they’ve got and with current low interest rates they are just getting by,” Martin said.

“But if interest rates go up this is where you’ll see the first impact. If interest rates are two percent higher, it would create significant pain for households.”

The median income in Tuggeranong is $57,993, compared to between $66,000 and $78,000 in Canberra’s richest suburbs like Forrest and Deakin. According to Roy Morgan research, the tendency for a borrower to default was 83.2 percent for households earning under $60,000 per year.

However, Mr North stressed that there was more to calculating mortgage default risk than annual earnings, as buyers with lower incomes usually took out smaller loans and had a more conservative loan-to-valuation ratio.

Instead, the postcodes at the highest risk of default were those where workers would have the most trouble finding employment if they lost their job.

When the research findings were released last year, ACT unemployment was at five percent and a public sector hiring freeze had just ended. The current ACT unemployment rate is 3.6 percent – the lowest in the country.

With lower unemployment and the hiring freeze over, it would be reasonable to assume that Canberra’s southside homeowners are under less mortgage pressure now compared to 12 months ago.

However, many are still financially vulnerable – a recent Roy Morgan analysis found that 17.4 percent of Australians with a mortgage on the home they are living in are at risk of default.

Image via Australian Financial Review.

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Canberra southside suburbs top mortgage stress list
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bj_ACT 5:03 pm 02 Oct 16

DUNGFUNGUS. Maybe I Just should have sent this link below straight away. Note a ABS Postal area is a rough equivalent of a Postcode. Not an exact spatial match. But it gives you the idea.

You will see that 2900 covers a bigger area than just Greenway. An area that you would roughly call Tuggeranong, your postcode book is not an equivalent to the Postal Address File or other sources of postcode based data. I have seen North Pole NSW 9999 as a postcode in the proper Australia Post data to handle xmas letters, I bet this isn’t in your postcode book. http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/POA2900?opendocument&navpos=220

bj_ACT 4:29 pm 02 Oct 16

dungfungus said :

bj_ACT said :

I gave a link to Actmapi earlier and you can zoom in on rural homesteads outside the main Tuggeranong suburbs to see the block details and this link highlights a census 2011 population for an area http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/805258189?opendocument&navpos=220

The PSMA and Pitney Bowes SUBURB and Postcode boundary data also covers an area and Tuggeranong suburb.

This link has nothing to do with postcodes.

The highlighted area includes Tharwa (postcode 2620) and I would suggest that the bulk of the people ABS Census has recorded live in/close by to Tharwa.

Queanbeyan also has postcode 2620 but it is not included in the highlighted area.

The fact that ABS call the area Tuggeranong has nothing to do with postcodes as I have just explained, again.

Your misunderstanding the information I’m providing in relation to the original data. You questioned the data because it listed a postcode that included the areas of Greenway and Tuggeranong. You said there was no suburb called Tuggeranong. I am just providing information that there are approximately 45 people living on properties covered by that postcode. Which is about 3% of the postcodes population. I think I correctly guessed in an earlier post 3% without even looking at the data.

I know at least 2 homeowners on rural properties in the area who have lost their jobs and now can’t service their mortgages. The data from ABS, Banks and Centrelink analysed by Digital Finance Analytics suggests that people who live in the postcodes of 2902, 2903 and 2900 are facing the highest mortgage stress in Australia because they have relatively expensive houses, large mortgages and they are losing their low paying jobs. This is backed up by anecdotal evidence and public data such as Centrelink customer postcode counts and the small area labor market on data.gov.au. It is also backed up by Bank data such as from NAB who have put these postcodes on a watchlist.

If you go to Actmapi you will find an address. Block 1624, 325 Kambah Pool Road, Tuggeranong ACT 2900. They may well put Kambah or Gleneagles on their address in letters but Land and Planning will have Tuggeranong on their Deed.

If you want to question the findings of the data, please do so directly. Not by claiming that the postcode 2900 doesn’t cover a region called Tuggeranong even if it is only a few people. I think the people who live on a Tuggeranong small rural block and have lost their jobs and soon their blocks and houses deserve respect.

The point you make about the ABS link are the people who live near Tharwa. If you look closely at the Census map they are on the north side of the river which is Tuggeranong 2900 the other side of the river is Tharwa 2620. Your point is exactly what I have been trying to say all along. There are rural blocks at the Lanyon property and right around behind the Hyperdome and Kambah that are Tuggeranong ACT 2900.

dungfungus 1:46 pm 02 Oct 16

bj_ACT said :

I gave a link to Actmapi earlier and you can zoom in on rural homesteads outside the main Tuggeranong suburbs to see the block details and this link highlights a census 2011 population for an area http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/805258189?opendocument&navpos=220

The PSMA and Pitney Bowes SUBURB and Postcode boundary data also covers an area and Tuggeranong suburb.

This link has nothing to do with postcodes.

The highlighted area includes Tharwa (postcode 2620) and I would suggest that the bulk of the people ABS Census has recorded live in/close by to Tharwa.

Queanbeyan also has postcode 2620 but it is not included in the highlighted area.

The fact that ABS call the area Tuggeranong has nothing to do with postcodes as I have just explained, again.

dungfungus 6:15 pm 01 Oct 16

bj_ACT said :

I gave a link to Actmapi earlier and you can zoom in on rural homesteads outside the main Tuggeranong suburbs to see the block details and this link highlights a census 2011 population for an area http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/805258189?opendocument&navpos=220

The PSMA and Pitney Bowes SUBURB and Postcode boundary data also covers an area and Tuggeranong suburb.

I can’t find the ACTmapi link on your earlier posts, only links to ABS and postcodes.

I did have a link to ACTmapi on my desktop but for some reason it won’t connect.

I’ll get back to you but bear in mind that the theme of this “analysis” is the risk young home buyers are facing so including farmers in the data only clouds the outcome.

bj_ACT 12:22 pm 01 Oct 16

I gave a link to Actmapi earlier and you can zoom in on rural homesteads outside the main Tuggeranong suburbs to see the block details and this link highlights a census 2011 population for an area http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/805258189?opendocument&navpos=220

The PSMA and Pitney Bowes SUBURB and Postcode boundary data also covers an area and Tuggeranong suburb.

dungfungus 11:00 am 01 Oct 16

bj_ACT said :

dungfungus said :

bj_ACT said :

dungfungus said :

bj_ACT said :

dungfungus said :

The credibility of this report is immediately thrown into doubt as it refers to a suburb named Tuggeranong.

There is no such suburb and there is no postcode 2900 relating to that name.

The closest is Tuggeranong DC with a post code of 2901.

The owner of this address is Australia Post and while they are not travelling too well either I doubt if they are experiencing “mortgage stress”.

Dungfungus – You might want to do some research before casting other far more eminent experts research into doubt. There is a suburb called Tuggeranong and it covers farm houses and reserves west of Kambah and down the south of Banks (in fact you can see it as area number 2 on the map pictured in the article)

You might also like to see it listed for the Postcode 2900 (I imagine 97% of that postcodes population is Greenway residents) http://www.postcodes-australia.com/postcodes/2900

I did my research and according to the NSW / ACT Postcodes in the current phone book there is no entry for the name Tuggeranong or a postcode for Tuggeranong.

Greenway is listed as 2900 but not Tuggeranong.

Dungfungus – you are obviously going to have to do more research than a Phonebook, because ActMapi, Australia Post, Land & Planning, The Public Sector Mapping Agency, ABS CENSUS 2011 and people who live on blocks and houses at the Southern end of Tharwa Drive Tuggeranong say that you are wrong. Only 43 People lived in the Suburb at the last CENSUS, so it’s an easy one to miss. What Suburb do you think people live in once you get outside Canberra’s Suburb outskirts? Duffy becomes Stromlo on the other side of Eucabene Dr and Holt becomes Belconnen on the other side of Drake Brockman, etc , etc.

Digital Financial Analytics use postcodes to generate their statistics.

Are you saying their postcode book is different to mine?

The 43 people that the ABS Census recorded as “living in Tuggeranong” were probably guests at the motel there.

Note that Digital Finance Analytics are not using your Postcode Book, because you don’t use a Postcode Book for determining these things. The Postcode Book is like a Brochure for common Postcode Information (not the definitive source from Australia Post).

The 43 people from the CENSUS probably live in the homesteads on the rural properties that are in the Suburb of Tuggeranong (yes it is a suburb according to experts like ACT Land & Planning, rates notices and the PSMA)

As for the research, The researchers would have got Postcode level data from Centrelink, ABS and Major Banks, and my guess is that there is probably at least a few people who live on a Rural Lot in Tuggeranong 2900 are on a Centrelink family or unemployment benefit and are also behind on their bank repayments. Events that will make both datasets and can be joined.

The findings of this report should be a red flag to all ACT politicians and Support Providers, but it has been ignored for some reason.

Is “postcode level data” the politically correct version of “post-code book”?
Even if this is so and the mystery 43 who live at rural addresses are on welfare benefits they won’t have a mortgage so the existence of such data immediately corrupts the findings of Digital Financial Analytics.

I think what you are saying is twaddle. Please send me a couple of links that will corroborate that 43 people live on rural holdings in Tuggeranong.

And to refer ACT Land & Planning, rates notices and the PSMA as “experts” is totally hilarious.

Southerly_views 5:43 am 01 Oct 16

When you talk about inclusions and options on homes built in new estates across the ACT and nearby NSW don’t forget that the new homeowner is presented with a handbook of covenants, rules and demands by the developer. This usually states that a bond of several thousand dollars is payable upfront and the homeowner must landscape their front yard within 6-12 months according to a pre-arranged palette of often expensive materials, colours and options. This ultimately ensures that the homes all look pretty much the same and no-one is tardy in completing their front landscaping. Consequently many spec builders value-add by including the landscaping and most people accept it to ensure they get their money back. This all adds to the initial costs and leaves the days of a dirt front yard, basic driveways and curtains made of sheets well behind. The covenants also cover much of the building styles, materials and colours so we end up with the estate planner’s dream landscape of many buildings boasting an overwhelming sameness.

Maya123 3:51 pm 30 Sep 16

madelini said :

Maya123 said :

reddy84 said :

Acton said :

Garfield said :

Acton said :

1989. Home loan interest rates rise to 17%. That’s mortgage stress.

It all depends on how much people have had to borrow. Interest on $100,000 at 17% is the same as interest on $400,000 at 4.25%.

You are not accounting for much lower wages in 1989 compared to now, so 17% on $100k then made houses and mortgages far less affordable than 4.25% on $400k now, because the repayments took a greater chunk out of your (lower) after tax disposable income. Many young families at that time couldn’t afford much else after meeting the mortgage payment. Mortgage stress was evidenced by sheets covering the windows because we (us and our neighbours) couldn’t afford curtains. Bean bags were standard furniture. I could go on but you would start rolling your eyes.

Yet my parents and many others could afford to purchase a house on a single income. Home affordability is a much different beast than to what it was a few decades ago.

For interest, what size home did they purchase compared to today’s average size home. Did they have it already curtained, carpeted, landscaped, etc when they moved in, as most home today appear to be (extra upfront expenses)? Or did they live for a time with sheets on the windows, bare floors, bare uneven dirt outside left from the builders and fix all this up as they could afford it? I can remember driving around the new suburbs in the past and seeing all this. I rarely do today. All these add ons are not cheap.

It’s difficult to contract out of those inclusions now. For example, if you buy an established home, the standard inclusions are fixed floor coverings, light fittings and window furnishings. For off the plan, they will have an inclusions list (including OTP houses, not just townhouses or units) which generally always includes landscaping and floor coverings (such as carpet or tiles/floorboards), if not curtains.

Unless you buy the vacant land first and then engage a builder/architect, you don’t get much choice regarding inclusions, and the going that route is not necessarily more cost effective.

I was referring to newly built houses which many first home buyers get; not established. If those extras are part of the deal, they are an extra expense and are pushing homes up. It is more expensive to have all these things included new. If they weren’t included, the home buyer would have the opportunity of getting secondhand curtains for instance. It cost me $100 to curtain a whole house with secondhand curtains; all of which were at least okay and some were very good quality curtains with separate insulation layers in as new condition. Some people it appears get rid of good curtains and they can with searching be found in charity shops and fetes. Also ask around; some people have an okay set of curtains stashed in a cupboard they would be willing to give away for free. A few of the curtains came to me this way. There was an extra (but not large) cost for the curtain rail fittings, which I fitted myself. All that is needed here is a drill, which is always handy to own. I doubt the included curtains in the house package would cost as little. It also gives the new home owner the chance to make their own. The same with the garden. It is cheaper to landscape your own garden, bit by bit, as time and money allows. Plants can be acquired free too by taking cuttings, getting plants from friends, etc. Seeds are cheap too. Not an instance garden, but it will get there, and if people find money tight, this is a saved expense. Paint your own house too. See if these can be negotiated off the cost, and if they can’t be, perhaps we need legislation that allows people of limited incomes the chance to reduce the cost of a house to them. But are you sure that these expenses can’t be optional, or is it just presumed you have to have them? Do you have to agree to everything on the inclusions list?

madelini 11:15 am 30 Sep 16

Maya123 said :

reddy84 said :

Acton said :

Garfield said :

Acton said :

1989. Home loan interest rates rise to 17%. That’s mortgage stress.

It all depends on how much people have had to borrow. Interest on $100,000 at 17% is the same as interest on $400,000 at 4.25%.

You are not accounting for much lower wages in 1989 compared to now, so 17% on $100k then made houses and mortgages far less affordable than 4.25% on $400k now, because the repayments took a greater chunk out of your (lower) after tax disposable income. Many young families at that time couldn’t afford much else after meeting the mortgage payment. Mortgage stress was evidenced by sheets covering the windows because we (us and our neighbours) couldn’t afford curtains. Bean bags were standard furniture. I could go on but you would start rolling your eyes.

Yet my parents and many others could afford to purchase a house on a single income. Home affordability is a much different beast than to what it was a few decades ago.

For interest, what size home did they purchase compared to today’s average size home. Did they have it already curtained, carpeted, landscaped, etc when they moved in, as most home today appear to be (extra upfront expenses)? Or did they live for a time with sheets on the windows, bare floors, bare uneven dirt outside left from the builders and fix all this up as they could afford it? I can remember driving around the new suburbs in the past and seeing all this. I rarely do today. All these add ons are not cheap.

It’s difficult to contract out of those inclusions now. For example, if you buy an established home, the standard inclusions are fixed floor coverings, light fittings and window furnishings. For off the plan, they will have an inclusions list (including OTP houses, not just townhouses or units) which generally always includes landscaping and floor coverings (such as carpet or tiles/floorboards), if not curtains.

Unless you buy the vacant land first and then engage a builder/architect, you don’t get much choice regarding inclusions, and the going that route is not necessarily more cost effective.

bj_ACT 3:37 pm 29 Sep 16

dungfungus said :

bj_ACT said :

dungfungus said :

bj_ACT said :

dungfungus said :

The credibility of this report is immediately thrown into doubt as it refers to a suburb named Tuggeranong.

There is no such suburb and there is no postcode 2900 relating to that name.

The closest is Tuggeranong DC with a post code of 2901.

The owner of this address is Australia Post and while they are not travelling too well either I doubt if they are experiencing “mortgage stress”.

Dungfungus – You might want to do some research before casting other far more eminent experts research into doubt. There is a suburb called Tuggeranong and it covers farm houses and reserves west of Kambah and down the south of Banks (in fact you can see it as area number 2 on the map pictured in the article)

You might also like to see it listed for the Postcode 2900 (I imagine 97% of that postcodes population is Greenway residents) http://www.postcodes-australia.com/postcodes/2900

I did my research and according to the NSW / ACT Postcodes in the current phone book there is no entry for the name Tuggeranong or a postcode for Tuggeranong.

Greenway is listed as 2900 but not Tuggeranong.

Dungfungus – you are obviously going to have to do more research than a Phonebook, because ActMapi, Australia Post, Land & Planning, The Public Sector Mapping Agency, ABS CENSUS 2011 and people who live on blocks and houses at the Southern end of Tharwa Drive Tuggeranong say that you are wrong. Only 43 People lived in the Suburb at the last CENSUS, so it’s an easy one to miss. What Suburb do you think people live in once you get outside Canberra’s Suburb outskirts? Duffy becomes Stromlo on the other side of Eucabene Dr and Holt becomes Belconnen on the other side of Drake Brockman, etc , etc.

Digital Financial Analytics use postcodes to generate their statistics.

Are you saying their postcode book is different to mine?

The 43 people that the ABS Census recorded as “living in Tuggeranong” were probably guests at the motel there.

Note that Digital Finance Analytics are not using your Postcode Book, because you don’t use a Postcode Book for determining these things. The Postcode Book is like a Brochure for common Postcode Information (not the definitive source from Australia Post).

The 43 people from the CENSUS probably live in the homesteads on the rural properties that are in the Suburb of Tuggeranong (yes it is a suburb according to experts like ACT Land & Planning, rates notices and the PSMA)

As for the research, The researchers would have got Postcode level data from Centrelink, ABS and Major Banks, and my guess is that there is probably at least a few people who live on a Rural Lot in Tuggeranong 2900 are on a Centrelink family or unemployment benefit and are also behind on their bank repayments. Events that will make both datasets and can be joined.

The findings of this report should be a red flag to all ACT politicians and Support Providers, but it has been ignored for some reason.

dungfungus 4:59 pm 28 Sep 16

Maya123 said :

reddy84 said :

Acton said :

Garfield said :

Acton said :

1989. Home loan interest rates rise to 17%. That’s mortgage stress.

It all depends on how much people have had to borrow. Interest on $100,000 at 17% is the same as interest on $400,000 at 4.25%.

You are not accounting for much lower wages in 1989 compared to now, so 17% on $100k then made houses and mortgages far less affordable than 4.25% on $400k now, because the repayments took a greater chunk out of your (lower) after tax disposable income. Many young families at that time couldn’t afford much else after meeting the mortgage payment. Mortgage stress was evidenced by sheets covering the windows because we (us and our neighbours) couldn’t afford curtains. Bean bags were standard furniture. I could go on but you would start rolling your eyes.

Yet my parents and many others could afford to purchase a house on a single income. Home affordability is a much different beast than to what it was a few decades ago.

For interest, what size home did they purchase compared to today’s average size home. Did they have it already curtained, carpeted, landscaped, etc when they moved in, as most home today appear to be (extra upfront expenses)? Or did they live for a time with sheets on the windows, bare floors, bare uneven dirt outside left from the builders and fix all this up as they could afford it? I can remember driving around the new suburbs in the past and seeing all this. I rarely do today. All these add ons are not cheap.

“All these add-ons are not cheap.”

Now you know why Australia has about one trillion dollars in personal debt making it the highest per-capita in the world.

You may be surprised to know that many Canberrans cannot afford to pay their childrens’ school fees.

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