25 October 2024

Coalition's housing plan isn't about the needy - and that's the point

| Ian Bushnell
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More sprawl? The Coalition will focus on greenfield, detached housing on city limits. Photo: Ian Bushnell.

The Coalition’s $5 billion housing policy pitched at aspirational suburban voters is pure politics.

It aims to provide the money for essential services in greenfield estates to ease the way for new housing. It responds to what councils and the property industry have been calling for but ignores the reality of the market and where the real need is.

It may deliver marginally cheaper homes, but they will still be beyond the reach of most pockets and in outer fringes, a long way from workplaces and where people want to live.

Sure, those who can take on huge mortgages for a traditional house and land package will, and they’ll cop long commutes and years of threadbare services such as public transport and schools.

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The $5 billion will see water, sewerage, electricity and roads connected, but there will be a long wait for the rest as states grapple with the full financial consequences of more sprawl. The result will be isolated communities far from the attractions of whatever city they cling to.

It’s also probable that developers and councils would do this work anyway.

The Coalition says it wants to maintain the dream of home ownership, which is a bit rich considering it is responsible for decades of bad policy settings that have contributed to one of the most overpriced housing markets in the world and the current housing crisis. The affordability horse bolted long ago.

It wants a fight with Labor over housing come the election, so it will focus on detached homes for families in new suburbs as opposed to medium and high-density housing close to transport and jobs in established areas.

Sound familiar?

Can’t we have both? Of course, but with the median price of detached homes in Sydney $1.4 million and not too far short of a million in Melbourne and Brisbane, will the Coalition’s focus on greenfield satisfy the biggest area of need in the market?

Just who is going to be able to afford to buy these homes? If asked, everybody says they prefer a house and land, but the reality is townhouses and apartments are cheaper and a much more viable prospect for first-home buyers.

There is a reason why Labor is focusing on social and public housing that will be within the reach of people who are locked out of the market and paying exorbitant rents.

That is where people are being most impoverished.

All supply is good and, if delivered in sufficient quantity, will ease price pressures, but the real crisis is not with buyers who can save a 20 per cent deposit and borrow $800,000.

And it’s not as if the Coalition’s idea is an original one, with Labor saying it mimics its own $1.5 billion infrastructure fund.

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An aspect of the Coalition policy that is regressive is its proposal for a 10-year freeze on changes to the National Construction Code (NCC) to reduce unnecessary “red tape.”

This includes things to do with safety, amenity and energy efficiency. The Coalition claims upgrading from six to seven-star EERs can cost $60,000, which was quickly debunked by Australian Building Codes Board chair Gary Rake, who said it was more like a few thousand.

The property industry welcomed the freeze initially but quickly backpedalled, probably fearing a backlash from consumers over building quality.

Unfortunately, there is also a bit of climate politics in this one.

Any pause on changes that will make Australian homes warmer in winter, cooler in summer and less power-hungry will only shift costs to another generation of occupants and only add more housing stock that isn’t fit for purpose.

It is a pity there cannot be a more integrated approach to housing that is not tilted towards the parties’ political goals.

And you can build as many homes as you like but without changing the policy settings – yes, that includes negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts – that helped commodify housing and get us to this point, prices won’t shift enough for the great Australian dream not to be a mirage for many of us.

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Andrew Murphie5:17 pm 26 Oct 24

Yes. Thx. All so true. Plus… ten years ago I was designing a new course in Climate Change Communications. I was concerned that, for students here at least, there wasn’t so much clear indication in the everyday world of what was going on. Now it’s 2024 and anyone with eyes and ears perceives the changes happening all around them. Why do I mention this? Because governments and just about everyone else discuss housing (and the like of 30 year mortgages) as if climate change isn’t already happening, and won’t get worse over the short-medium term. Yet housing is already in trouble, for all kinds of climate based reasons, insurance in general, and increased intensity of climate related events such as floods, fires affecting this. And building in the hotter areas of e.g. Sydney, which tend to be the edge areas, with only limited consideration of heat and such on housing is just asking for trouble (yet the coalition explicitly rejects improving building standards along exactly these lines). Climate’s a huge housing problem in the US, with weird patterns of internal climate migration. At the same time as Wall St in moving in on housing with dire consequences. With some echoes here. So yes, concerning everything you describe here, and more, we are desperate for sensible, responsive policies. What we’re getting instead is “just say anything” politics with zero responsibility, reality, or it seems even basic understanding.

GrumpyGrandpa10:16 pm 25 Oct 24

Sure, apartments and townhouses are often the cheapest entry point into the housing market for purchasers, but the need for housing isn’t just a need for singles and couples.
Families need bedrooms for the kids, backyards to play in etc. High-density 2 bedroom apartments just doesn’t work for families.
The cost of housing isn’t entitely about NG & CGT. (Admittedly CGT is generous), but these tax concessions are have been around for a long time.
Talk of repealing them is folly. Just ask Bill Shorten.
Housing is a balance between supply and demand. Our population is growing faster than we are building houses and increased demand increases the cost of housing, whether that be purchasing or renting.
To make things worse, various State & Territory jurisdictions have introduced taxes on rental properties such as Land Tax, and naturally when you increase the cost of ownership, those costs work their way through into the cost of rent paid on the properties by tenants.

HiddenDragon8:50 pm 25 Oct 24

“The Coalition’s $5 billion housing policy pitched at aspirational suburban voters is pure politics.”

Claire O’Neil was quick to claim that Labor are already doing (under a $1.5 billion initiative) what the Liberals are proposing, so if appealing to “aspirational suburban voters” is now a sin of some sort, both major parties are guilty of it.

The more interesting aspect of this is that what Labor says it is already doing, and what the Liberals are proposing to do more of, has distinct echoes of Whitlam government housing programs.

Mention of a government now almost half a century in the rear vision mirror is also a reminder that, in an era where technology enables many jobs to be done at least in part at home, the regionalisation and decentralisation ideas of that government would be worth revisiting as an alternative to expanding the outer suburbs and/or further congesting and slumifying the inner suburbs of the major cities.

Easy answer, stop importing people we DONT need FGS.

Stephen Saunders10:28 am 25 Oct 24

Meanwhile, on the housing demand side, Australia will register about 1.5m net migration over 2022-2025.

Six times higher than the historical average, not at all what voters want, and making a joke of either party’s limp gestures for “housing affordability”.

Of course your unsourced and undefined figures are wrong anyway.

Nett migration 2022-2025 is expected to total 1.18m, being in steady decline from the 2022-23 peak of 528k which year itself accounts for 45% of the 1.18m over 3 years.

What historical average would that be? Cite relevant population proportions or go home to practise your additions again.

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