Labor's David Smith can't rest on his margin as electoral climate heats up

Is the orange tide about to swamp Labor’s David Smith in Bean?

The numbers say not likely, but David Pocock defied the odds in 2022 to banish Zed Seselja and deny the Liberals any representation in the Parliament.

Granted, Pocock was an exceptional candidate, and his rugby background didn’t hurt, but it was also the beginning of the volatility that now characterises the electoral landscape.

His former staffer, Thomas Emerson, is now an independent in the Legislative Assembly after contesting a seat studded with party leaders.

Last federal election, David Smith retained Bean with a primary vote of 41 per cent and personal swing of 3.59 per cent and a two-party preferred swing of 5.43 per cent for a sizable margin of 12.9 per cent.

That’s a fair buffer.

But community independent Jessie Price, a former journalist and midwife, is unfazed, as are her enthusiastic orange-clad supporters who can be seen waving placards at motorists on the busy morning commute.

She has received some funding from Climate 200, which bankrolled the Pocock push and is expected to hand over a bit more for the soon-to-start official campaign.

Last week, Climate 200 founder Simon Holmes a Court told the National Press Club that Climate 200 polling gave Price a good chance of toppling Smith.

That may be due to the poll questions and be self-serving, but it will give the Price campaign a fillip.

Smith is considered vulnerable because of a perceived lack of visibility in the electorate, a general antipathy towards incumbency, especially with higher interest rates and the rising cost of living, and the Albanese Government’s cautious climate policies.

Price, presenting a fresh face and oodles of energy, is hoping to win over disenchanted Labor voters and Liberals who back the energy transition but won’t countenance moving to the left.

Cost of living, housing, health care, climate change, plus more infrastructure on the south side of Canberra are her priorities.

She considers a minority government would be a great result because it would give the likes of her more bargaining power from the crossbench – and better results for Bean.

Labor is ramping up the risk factor of this approach. Last week Chief Minister Andrew Barr laced his otherwise mundane State of the Territory speech with warnings about what a Dutton government would mean to the ACT’s economy and infrastructure program.

Having Anthony Albanese in the Lodge has made life a whole lot easier for the ACT in working with the Commonwealth to jointly fund projects, and Labor’s policy settings have strengthened Canberra’s economy.

The message was clear – a Coalition government would put all this at risk. And he didn’t even mention Dutton’s proposed public service cuts, leaving that to Finance Minister and ACT Senator Katy Gallagher.

While Barr didn’t refer to independents, the implication was that a Price victory would be one less Labor seat and that could be crucial to who sits on the government benches. But it could also help the Liberal candidate, army veteran David Lamerton, pull off a boilover.

That’s Smith’s warning to voters too.

However, in an electoral environment where grievance is rewarded, incumbency is ignored, and energy can melt numbers, it may not be enough.

Smith has been in every infrastructure photo-op recently, but he will need to do some old-fashioned flesh pressing and doorknocking to let people know he isn’t taking their votes for granted. We may even see him on the side of the road with a placard.