Senator Katy Gallagher is still a firm favourite to retain her Senate seat, despite her public protestations. Photo: Michelle Kroll.
Is Katy Gallagher really that nervous about her ACT Senate seat, or has the general malaise in the Albanese Government put her on edge?
Senator Gallagher, a former ACT Chief Minister, has always been popular with Canberrans and is usually considered a shoo-in at election time.
But she has made it known that her seat should now be considered marginal given the rise and rise of David Pocock.
He will be first elected, she says, bolstered by a cashed-up campaign that will outspend hers.
Declaring yourself as the underdog is a time-honoured tradition to bring any waverers – Greens, anyone? – back into the fold and betrays a government with the jitters.
Senator Pocock’s stature has only grown over the past couple of years. Not that he is perfect, as any Liberal Party member will tell you, but he commands respect and is seen as an honest negotiator who steps up for his constituents.
Senator Gallagher is probably right that he is unlikely to be a one-term senator, but suggesting that his popularity means Labor will battle to fill the other Senate spot is extraordinary.
Unless she has seen some polling that has Labor tanking even here in the People’s Republic of the ACT, her view must reflect a general fear in the government that voters will punish Labor over cost of living.
And if going to Peter Dutton is a bridge too far, voters will be looking around for an independent.
Coincidentally, Voices of Canberra – a community group that will seek Climate 200 funding – last week unveiled midwife Jessie Price as its candidate in the southern Canberra seat of Bean, held by Labor’s David Smith.
Mr Smith is on a 12.9 per cent margin and Ms Price has already said Labor is taking voters there for granted. It will be an ask for her, or a Liberal candidate for that matter, to bridge that gap.
Yet the nervousness suggested by Senator Gallagher’s comment remains.
In 2022, many, including me at first, thought Senator Pocock would go close, but the Liberal core would hold enough to thwart him. Of course, he pulled off a famous victory and appears to have changed the Senate dynamic in the ACT.
But there are a couple of factors that should see Senator Gallagher returned.
The first is that the lead Liberal candidate, Jacob Vadakkedathu, has been virtually invisible in Canberra, to the extent that there has been talk party figures are unhappy with his low profile and are prepared to replace him.
Mr Vadakkedathu’s pre-selection was a surprise and some speculate it was part of a longer game the old guard right was playing, in view of at least two terms of Labor, to keep an avenue open in 2028 for the return of the man Senator Pocock defeated, Zed Seselja.
Mr Seselja is now a NSW party member, and while his ambitions to become a NSW senator were thwarted, it is understood that he still wants to return to the Senate.
So Senator Gallagher is not facing an opponent with a high public profile or arguably the full and unequivocal support of the party.
The other factor is preferential voting. Senator Gallagher will outpoll the Greens, whose preferences, if needed, should be enough to get her over the line.
For many voters, the two sitting Senators will be their top two choices, in whatever order they prefer.
So I don’t expect much to change in the ACT, but the fact Senator Gallagher is nervy, along with the end-of-year manoeuvring, suggests an election may be coming sooner than we think.
If not, it’s is going to be a long four months to May, the latest it can be held.
Loading ...
