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Mike Kelly rolls in Eden Monaro

johnboy 13 September 2013 24

The bellwether tag lives on as the ABC reports Eden Monaro is going with government once again:

Labor’s Mike Kelly has conceded defeat in his New South Wales seat of Eden-Monaro.

Dr Kelly is trailing Liberal Party candidate Peter Hendy by just over 600 votes.

Dr Kelly has used Twitter to announce he will be conceding this morning, telling his followers “it’s over” and thanking them for their support.

The outgoing minister for defence materiel has held the seat since 2007, after Kevin Rudd convinced him to contest the seat on the promise he would one day be defence minister in Mr Rudd’s cabinet.

It looked as though his popularity in the seat might prevent or ward off the swing nationwide against him.


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IrishPete IrishPete 11:44 am 16 Sep 13

Darkfalz said :

EvanJames said :

However, Hendy’s worse, he craps on about FAMILIES constantly which is the big red flag for someone wanting to get through on slogans.

Much better to wax hyperbolic about the Snowy Mountains becoming the Sandy Mountains and the Bega Valley becoming the Death Valley if we don’t not-keep the world saving carbon tax. And to pose for fake defence briefings over Syria…

Can I respectfully prescribe a cup of tea and a digestive biscuit.

Anthropogenic Global Warming (or man-made Climate Change) is accepted by the vast majority of scientists in the relevant fields. When a politician repeats these claims, they are accepting the science. When a politician claims climate change is “crap” they are rejecting the science. Your beef is with the scientists and the science, and simply saying it is rubbish just doesn’t cut it.

I don’t believe in climate change. I’m like the mythical Doubting Thomas who had to stick his hand in the wound in Jesus’ side before he would believe it was him. I tend not to believe anything until there is absolute proof, which is why I am an atheist.

In the context of climate change, I may not believe it absolutely, because the evidence is largely based on modelling. But my lay person’s assessment of the probability is that it’s likely enough to be happening, that it is worth taking action to ameliorate. It’s like having house/car/life/health insurance – you may hope and even believe that you may never need it, but you have the insurance anyway just in case.So too, with the costs of a carbon tax, or encouraging renewable electricity. I spend thousands of dollars a year on compulsory and discretionary insurance, and I am happy to pay some compulsory taxes to reduce the risk of climate change that would make the world a much less pleasant place to live.

There are lots of other reasons for reducing fossil fuel use, and it irks me that everything becomes single issue – it’s not just about CO2, it’s about particulate pollution, dangerous mining, finite resources, the list goes on. Similarly against nuclear power – yeah, it solves the CO2 issue, but replaces it with a whole lot of different problems.

IP

Darkfalz Darkfalz 11:21 pm 15 Sep 13

EvanJames said :

However, Hendy’s worse, he craps on about FAMILIES constantly which is the big red flag for someone wanting to get through on slogans.

Much better to wax hyperbolic about the Snowy Mountains becoming the Sandy Mountains and the Bega Valley becoming the Death Valley if we don’t not-keep the world saving carbon tax. And to pose for fake defence briefings over Syria…

IrishPete IrishPete 7:21 pm 15 Sep 13

Bundah_Bloke said :

IrishPete said :

Oh yeah, forgot to mention the unedifying sight of. a government minister outside the Israeli embassy demonstrating support for yet another Israeli disproportionate reaction to Palestinian resistance.

IP

I didn’t know this, do you have a link please?

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/canberra-jews-rally-to-support-israel-20121118-29jwj.html and http://www.zfa.com.au/tag/mike-kelly/

IP

Darkfalz Darkfalz 1:51 pm 15 Sep 13

Sandy Mountains deserved to go for his ridiculous AGW scaremongering.

Bundah_Bloke Bundah_Bloke 10:04 am 15 Sep 13

IrishPete said :

Oh yeah, forgot to mention the unedifying sight of. a government minister outside the Israeli embassy demonstrating support for yet another Israeli disproportionate reaction to Palestinian resistance.

IP

I didn’t know this, do you have a link please?

EvanJames EvanJames 8:39 pm 14 Sep 13

qbngeek said :

Unlike Hendy, Kelly is a genuinely nice guy and always had time for a chat (even in a supermarket while he was grabbing a few things I discovered)

I saw him in the wonderful quangers Coles carrying a shopping basket a few times, being harangued by locals! Maybe you were one. I didn’t bother, I harangued him with letters and got stock government responses back, he was toeing the party line something chronic.

However, Hendy’s worse, he craps on about FAMILIES constantly which is the big red flag for someone wanting to get through on slogans. He really didn’t deserve to win so it’s a shame he did. I’d have put him last but there was this Fred Nile guy…

milkman milkman 6:14 pm 14 Sep 13

Postalgeek said :

Probably for the best. Irrespective of performance, can’t have him breaking the bellwether seat.

If he wasn’t associated with the Labor party he probably would have gotten up again.

Postalgeek Postalgeek 2:51 pm 14 Sep 13

Probably for the best. Irrespective of performance, can’t have him breaking the bellwether seat.

IrishPete IrishPete 9:14 am 14 Sep 13

c_c™ said :

IrishPete said :

c_c™ said :

Mike should be quite proud of the result, in an election where there was a large party swing nationally, to be so competitive probably says a lot about his profile as a local member, that it was so high that it could offset the dislike of the Labor brand.

Hang on, there was a 4.6% swing against Kelly on first preferences compared with a 2.5% swing against Labor across NSW. Doesn’t sound to me like a stellar performance.

The two-party preferred result wasn’t much different.

IP

Ok, let’s go through the numbers.

Back in 2007, Nairn in a change election suffered a -6.67% swing 2PP (or -5.85% 1st, while Kelly took a 6.64% swing on first preferences to him).

In 2010 despite a NSW average 2PP swing against Labor of 4.84%, Kelly managed a 1.95% swing to him 2PP (or .3% on first preferences when the NSW first preference swing against Labor was -6.84%).

So in his first election, he got the full swing against the incumbent Liberal and then some, and then in a subsequent election, grew his margin in an election that was against his party.

Now for 2013 and the results so far.

The first preference swing against Labor in NSW is 2.5% as you say (and 3.23% 2PP).

And you’re also right that Kelly has gone above that, his first preference swing is -4.6%. However the Liberal candidate only received a 3.35% swing. Palmer United received a very large swing to them, the Greens received a decent swing against them. And after all that, there’s only 800 or so votes in it.

I’ll be interested to see the preferences flows when they’re released, but overall, while it’s a firm defeat for Kelly, I’d stand by saying it was a decent effort to make it so close at an election of this character.

But the Coalition’s First Preference swing was only about +1% nationally, and possibly less in NSW, but Hendy scored a +3.35% swing?

I’m not a Hendy supporter, But I’m a realist not a fantasist.

IP

qbngeek qbngeek 8:39 am 14 Sep 13

My question now is will Hendy disconnect his FTTP and get the much inferior Coalition NBN that the rest of us will have to suffer with?

Unlike Hendy, Kelly is a genuinely nice guy and always had time for a chat (even in a supermarket while he was grabbing a few things I discovered) and would listen to what you said and give a real response. I have met Hendy a few times and never got anything but canned responses and a ‘holier than thou’ attitude. Hendy’s attitude and the NBN were the main reasons I went from voting Liberal to voting ALP.

IrishPete IrishPete 7:51 am 14 Sep 13

Oh yeah, forgot to mention the unedifying sight of. a government minister outside the Israeli embassy demonstrating support for yet another Israeli disproportionate reaction to Palestinian resistance.

IP

Thumper Thumper 9:45 pm 13 Sep 13

LSWCHP said :

I think this is a very sad result. He seemed to me to be a very decent bloke, and if I lived in EM I would’ve voted for him despite the rest of the toxic Labor stuff.

Kelly seems like a decent bloke. However, some of his warries seem a bit beyond belief.

And no, I’m not denigrating his active service, but really, the guy was never on the pointy stick end.

Having said that, he seems a decent guy who was a decent local member. He should be pissed off with his superiors…

EvanJames EvanJames 9:30 pm 13 Sep 13

He was primarily a party man, his efforts and loyalty were to the party first, then his constituents. I found him deeply underwhelming and put him at the bottom, one above Hendy (and two above the Fred Nile person).

c_c™ c_c™ 9:25 pm 13 Sep 13

IrishPete said :

c_c™ said :

Mike should be quite proud of the result, in an election where there was a large party swing nationally, to be so competitive probably says a lot about his profile as a local member, that it was so high that it could offset the dislike of the Labor brand.

Hang on, there was a 4.6% swing against Kelly on first preferences compared with a 2.5% swing against Labor across NSW. Doesn’t sound to me like a stellar performance.

The two-party preferred result wasn’t much different.

IP

Ok, let’s go through the numbers.

Back in 2007, Nairn in a change election suffered a -6.67% swing 2PP (or -5.85% 1st, while Kelly took a 6.64% swing on first preferences to him).

In 2010 despite a NSW average 2PP swing against Labor of 4.84%, Kelly managed a 1.95% swing to him 2PP (or .3% on first preferences when the NSW first preference swing against Labor was -6.84%).

So in his first election, he got the full swing against the incumbent Liberal and then some, and then in a subsequent election, grew his margin in an election that was against his party.

Now for 2013 and the results so far.

The first preference swing against Labor in NSW is 2.5% as you say (and 3.23% 2PP).

And you’re also right that Kelly has gone above that, his first preference swing is -4.6%. However the Liberal candidate only received a 3.35% swing. Palmer United received a very large swing to them, the Greens received a decent swing against them. And after all that, there’s only 800 or so votes in it.

I’ll be interested to see the preferences flows when they’re released, but overall, while it’s a firm defeat for Kelly, I’d stand by saying it was a decent effort to make it so close at an election of this character.

LSWCHP LSWCHP 8:48 pm 13 Sep 13

I think this is a very sad result. He seemed to me to be a very decent bloke, and if I lived in EM I would’ve voted for him despite the rest of the toxic Labor stuff.

IrishPete IrishPete 8:47 pm 13 Sep 13

c_c™ said :

Mike should be quite proud of the result, in an election where there was a large party swing nationally, to be so competitive probably says a lot about his profile as a local member, that it was so high that it could offset the dislike of the Labor brand.

Hang on, there was a 4.6% swing against Kelly on first preferences compared with a 2.5% swing against Labor across NSW. Doesn’t sound to me like a stellar performance.

The two-party preferred result wasn’t much different.

IP

FXST01 FXST01 7:58 pm 13 Sep 13

ricci said :

Mike ignored the Defence pensioners for years, only paying lipservice to changing indexation to AWE. Even when the stance softened it still was discriminatory according to the age of the pensioner. Lundy is the same re Commonwealth superannuants.

All it would have taken was the defence pensions to be fixed and he would have probably won E-M as there are heaps of defence families in his old electorate.

c_c™ c_c™ 6:38 pm 13 Sep 13

ricci said :

Mike ignored the Defence pensioners for years, only paying lipservice to changing indexation to AWE.

When was he ever the relevant Minister for that? His last position was Defence Materials, and before that a Parliamentary Secretary for Defence. Warren Snowden has been Minister for Defence Personnel since 2007, and Vet Affairs since 2010.

ricci ricci 5:55 pm 13 Sep 13

Mike ignored the Defence pensioners for years, only paying lipservice to changing indexation to AWE. Even when the stance softened it still was discriminatory according to the age of the pensioner. Lundy is the same re Commonwealth superannuants.

IrishPete IrishPete 5:47 pm 13 Sep 13

Maybe he’ll get a Senate seat to keep him active.

He always seemed like a nice bloke apart from being a big fan of the military-industrial complex.

He was my MP. Now I have “children overboard” Hendy.

IP

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