No-frills Budget as steady-as-she-goes Barr steers a narrow course to election

“Calm and measured” – that’s how Andrew Barr described his 13th Budget. Some might say boring, plenty seemed to think it offered meagre pickings.

A traditional election Budget it wasn’t. Apart from some stamp duty cuts, some temporary, to help owner-occupiers buy a home in tandem with increased land release, there was not much that screamed ‘I want your vote!’

Mr Barr made a virtue of this, saying the Budget, while “slightly stimulatory”, charts a sensible and sustainable path back to balance.

That’s if the economy and inflation play ball, which they didn’t this Budget. If they don’t come good next year, that path back to balance could be a long one.

Not that Mr Barr believes delivering a surplus is his job as Treasurer: “I don’t need to say that every Budget needs to be in surplus regardless of the economic circumstances and regardless of the pain that our community is experiencing. A surplus for surplus’s sake is not good economics.”

Mr Barr managed a very targeted cost-of-living package to acknowledge the tough times. The infrastructure program was kept intact, but milestones were revised, and there were savings across government and new taxes and increases in existing charges to lift revenue without too much pain.

However, in an environment of falling revenue, rising debt, and higher interest rates, Mr Barr had very little room to manoeuvre unless he wanted another credit rating downgrade before the election.

He acknowledged that the government had been in touch with ratings agency Standard and Poor’s and looked at other jurisdictions to ensure it hit the right targets to avoid any downgrade.

Mr Barr said that pre-Budget, there would not be any big spending surprises like that in Queensland.

But he can work from the relative comfort of a strong electoral position for Labor. His pitch to voters is to stick with a reliable hand on the helm and a government that delivers what the community wants.

Mr Barr’s focus on health, housing and cost of living responds to the Budget consultation.

Some may be disappointed, but Mr Barr knows he can’t please everybody.

“I understand that not every stakeholder, not every interest group, not every individual will get everything that they could possibly want out of one individual Budget,” he said.

“No one Budget can solve all the problems of the world. We do have to make trade-offs and choices.”

Expectations are being deliberately played down ahead of the election, especially when it comes to infrastructure. That is at full capacity.

What Mr Barr can tick off, though, is the new Critical Services Building at Canberra Hospital and point to the new Woden CIT on the way to opening in 2025.

The other big items, such as light rail and the theatre, are in train or in planning, including those with long lead times, such as the Northside hospital, convention centre and stadium.

The shifting Budget forecasts and the long infrastructure tail allow the Opposition Leader to lambast Mr Barr for being a chronic underachiever and breaker of promises.

But she faces her own credibility gaps over how the Liberals would whip the Budget into shape when she is offering or indicating tax and rate cuts but a much more generous cost-of-living package, more neighbourhood spending, world-class health and education systems and costly infrastructure such as a stadium in the city.

Of course, what she won’t be doing is building any more light rail after Stage 2A, but that money isn’t there yet to save. The question remains how she will offer more while collecting less revenue through, for example, capping rates at 2.2 per cent in her first term.

This will also undermine Mr Barr’s tax reform program, which is designed to put the Territory’s finances on a more solid footing.

It leaves her vulnerable to Labor attacks that a Liberal Government would be economically irresponsible, slash services and shelve other infrastructure.

She could sell more land and more announcements planned closer to the election may clarify the Liberals’ economic policy. Ms Lee will be keen to avoid repeating the mistakes of her predecessor, Alistair Coe, who got into a tangle over how the Liberals would pay for their policies.

As the Chief Minister said: “Choices and trade-offs.”