The Brumbies are on the verge of greatness - one mountain at a time

In the 28-year history of Super Rugby, no Australian team has won a final in New Zealand.

Let that sink in for a moment as the Brumbies head across the ditch to take on the Blues in a semi-final at Eden Park in Auckland, a rugby graveyard for Australian teams.

I’ve called every Brumbies final in New Zealand, including the heartbreaking loss to the Blues in 2022 at Eden Park.

The Blues were seemingly in control at half-time, leading 20-7, before the Brumbies came storming home, keeping the home side scoreless in the second half. The Brumbies fell only one point short at the final whistle.

On every occasion heading into finals in New Zealand, the odds have been heavily stacked against the Brumbies.

The travel factor alone is a major obstacle, while the weather has often cruelled the Brumbies’ running rugby game plan.

In 1997 they faced a Blues side laced with All Blacks in torrential rain. In 2002, in Christchurch against the Crusaders, the Brumbies found themselves in the middle of a bog.

In 2013, in the final against the Chiefs in Hamilton, the weather was okay, but the Brumbies failed to take opportunities after leading 16-9. Last year, the Brumbies finals woes continued in New Zealand with a 19-6 loss to the Chiefs.

Quite simply, New Zealand teams know how to win finals. They adapt better to the conditions and play a tough, uncompromising brand of rugby, contesting every aspect of the game.

That’s not to say the Brumbies aren’t within a chance of causing an upset; in fact, to the contrary.

The Blues have shown vulnerabilities this season, with losses to the Crusaders and the Hurricanes and narrow wins over the Waratahs and Queensland.

For the Brumbies to win, they will need improvements in several key areas.

The most obvious is the scrum. The Brumbies boast the worst scrum-winning percentage in the competition.

The second improvement needed, which follows from the first in many respects, is the discipline with the Brumbies. They lead the competition with a total of 10 yellow cards.

In the big loss to the Blues in April, a lack of physicality in defence proved costly. It was the same lack of intensity that allowed the Chiefs to run away with a 46-12 win in Round 2.

But supporters should take heart. Against the Hurricanes, the Brumbies more than matched their highly fancied Kiwi opponents.

There is plenty to like about the Brumbies this season, with an attacking flair reminiscent of the team’s glory days, with Wright, Toole, Muirhead and Tua, in particular, capable of creating something out of nothing.

Then, in the forwards, Cale, Valentini and Hooper were great last weekend.

The Brumbies just need to get the scrum firing first.

A Brumbies victory at Eden Park in a final will go down as one of the greatest moments in the club’s history, along with the premierships and the win over the Bulls in 2013 in the semi-final at Loftus Versfeld Stadium.

The Brumbies take on the Blues at Eden Park on Friday, 14 June, at 5:05 pm.