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1300 words on the ABC about Lin Hatfield Dodds?

By johnboy - 2 July 2010 13

In recent times the ABC news website has been moving towards longer form reporting.

Even so, the best part of 1300 words dedicated to the Greens Senate Candidate Lin Hatfield Dodds is eyebrow raising.

Lin is talking big about how she’s playing to win in the upcoming Senate election for the ACT in which three serious candidates have to fit into 2.

Before the palace coup in the Labor party I’d thought enough Labor votes were going to splinter greenwards to give them a chance. But that’s really not going to happen now.

With no Howard to vote against are Canberran’s who voted for him in the past really going to rise up against Gary Humphries?

Lin Hatfield Dodd's chances of knocking off Gary Humphries

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13 Responses to
1300 words on the ABC about Lin Hatfield Dodds?
emd 4:29 pm 04 Jul 10

Strange things can happen, even in supposedly safe seats. For example, if lots of minor parties and independents run, then the votes for the ALP and Liberals might be reduced somewhat. And if all those minors/independents preference Greens above both majors, it could happen.

Not a big chance, sure. But with the right events during the campaign…

NickD 3:10 pm 04 Jul 10

Given that there was a swing away from both the ALP and the Liberals at the last ACT election in favour of the Greens, it is worth their while being serious about the second senate seat simply to maintain a presence as a significant player in ACT politics. But as Aurelius notes, the electoral maths mean that they’ve got almost no hope of ever gaining the seat unless the Liberals did something really, really stupid (and promising to slash 12,000 public servant jobs isn’t quite stupid enough to do the job) or nominated a spectacularly bad candidate.

PM 2:24 pm 04 Jul 10

Affirmative Action Man said :

Sorry but on principle I refuse to vote for anybody with a hyphenated or double action surname.

She added her partner’s surname, and he added her surname to his. One was Hatfield, one was Dodds, now they are both Hatfield-Dodds. It’s true!

Affirmative Action M 4:37 pm 03 Jul 10

Sorry but on principle I refuse to vote for anybody with a hyphenated or double action surname.

Cobrico 8:36 pm 02 Jul 10

Does it matter whether it’s the Democrats or the Libs who take the Senate seat? What ACT needs at Federal level is competition to Labor, so that they stop taking this territory for granted. What exactly has Labor received from the Federal Libs in infrastructure spend during this federal government? Zero … it’s all gone to States with marginal seats. What is bringing the ACT to a halt? Chronic underspending in transport infrastructure. So let’s challenge the Labor status quo in the ACT … vote for competition, vote for anybody but Labor in the Senate.

A Noisy Noise Annoys 5:36 pm 02 Jul 10

54-11 said :

So JB is tempting fate by suggesting that’s there more chance of him being fullback for the Raiders?

The last person who used a football analogy like that became PM last week.

Tetranitrate 5:16 pm 02 Jul 10

I hope they don’t spread graffiti all over the ANU again like they did last time. Some of it’s still around.

And frankly if they didn’t manage to knock off Gary Humphries in 2007 with a much higher profile candidate and the liberals losing seats all over the country, they’re not going to manage it now.
A better bet would be for them to use their resources elsewhere (in states where they have a chance of picking up two seats) and go for the ACT when Gary Humphries is inevitably pushed out at preselection, which is bound to happen sooner or later. If they’re really lucky he might do something silly like run as an independent.

54-11 4:26 pm 02 Jul 10

So JB is tempting fate by suggesting that’s there more chance of him being fullback for the Raiders?

Here’s a suggestion for you, Lin. Get your party to commit to full indexation for retired Defence staff and public servants. That may swing enough votes your way from retired and soon-to-be-retired Canberrans to drop Humphreys below the quota line.

PM 2:50 pm 02 Jul 10

One thing’s certain: she’s the most boastful of the Senate candidates.

p1 2:43 pm 02 Jul 10

Aurelius said :

But even without that, on the day, the day that matters, many Green-aligned voters fall into the “wasted vote” erroneous mindset and not vote Green once they get into the booth.

I have often wondered why the these people don’t just vote first for the Greens and then direct their preferences where ever it is that they think they are not being wasted.

Aurelius said :

So the upshot of all that is that Lin Hatfield has as much chance of toppling Gary Humphries as you do, Johnboy, of scoring the first try in next weekend’s Raider’s game.

JB’s probably got more chance then the Raiders do…

Aurelius 1:32 pm 02 Jul 10

emd, I was just putting the reality out there.
Regardless of how much reality hits one in the face, one may still choose to believe in little fairies at the bottom of the garden.

emd 12:24 pm 02 Jul 10

A lot of Canberrans don’t fancy having Abbott as PM.
And despite Gillard’s left faction credentials, she’s been saying she’s still not going to support marriage other than between a man and a woman (SMH story – beware for those on download limits, there is also an embedded video that auto plays after 5 seconds). And she’s not yet said if she supports a woman’s right to maternity care choice as well as a woman’s right to choose pregnancy termination.
So there’s still plenty of room for a Greens candidate to win voter support in this town.

Aurelius 12:24 pm 02 Jul 10

Josh Lyman calls it “electoral math”.
In a nutshell, for the Greens to stand a chance at the second Senate seat, the right wing parties (who preference each other) need to score below 30%.
It’s never happened.
It’s not likely to.
By contrast, the Greens manage to get a Senate place in most other places because, with 6 Senators elected each time, they need to pick up 14% of their own votes, or preferences from similarly aligned parties (Labor, Socialists, Democrats, various independents etc). They can usually get that.
It’s far more likely that the Greens would pull a second Senate seat in one of the states before they pull one in the ACT.
An additional complication when predicting the Green voote is that, between elections, many polls have the Green vote higher than they get on actual polling day because aligning with the Greens is what left-wing voters do when they’re alienated from their own major party (as we saw in the latter days of the Rudd administration). But even without that, on the day, the day that matters, many Green-aligned voters fall into the “wasted vote” erroneous mindset and not vote Green once they get into the booth.
So the upshot of all that is that Lin Hatfield has as much chance of toppling Gary Humphries as you do, Johnboy, of scoring the first try in next weekend’s Raider’s game.

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