21 October 2024

ACT Election 2024: The state of play at close of counting

| Ian Bushnell and Oliver Jacques
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Andrew Barr and his husband, Anthony Tom

Sealed with a kiss: Andrew Barr and his husband, Anthony Toms, celebrating the election win. Photo: Thomas Lucraft.

UPDATE 12:10 am: The state of the parties at the end of counting tonight is Labor 10, Liberal 8, Greens 2, IFC 1, 1 independent, with three to be decided, although it is likely the Liberals will end on 10.

With three-quarters of the vote counted, five seats remain to be decided.

Two are in Brindabella, where Mick Gentleman is battling with Taimus Werner Gibbings for a second Labor seat.

There is also a three-way battle between the Liberals’ James Daniel, the Greens’ Laura Nuttall and IFC’s Vanessa Picker.

In Murrumbidgee, Ed Cocks and Amardeep Singh are fighting it out to give the Liberal a second seat.

In Yerrabi, the Greens’ Andrew Braddock is fighting off a challenge from IFC’s David Pollard.

In Ginninderra, the last seat is likely to go to the Liberals’ Chiaka Barry but has not been called.

All the major parties suffered swings: Labor -3.3 per cent, Canberra Liberals -0.7 per cent and the Greens -1.1 per cent.

The beneficiaries were the independents.

At this stage, Labor outpolled the Canberra Liberals, garnering 34.5 per cent of the vote, the Canberra Liberals 33.1 per cent, the Greens 12.4 per cent and IFC 8.5 per cent.

Pre-polls favoured the Liberals, but votes on the day brought Labor home.

And that’s all, folks. Thanks for joining Region’s coverage tonight for Election 2024.

Chief Minister Andrew Barr and his husband, Andrew Toms (right), celebrating the election win

Chief Minister Andrew Barr and his husband, Andrew Toms (right), celebrating the election win. Photo: Thomas Lucraft.

UPDATE 11:40 pm: Barr claims victory, looks forward to working with Greens

Chief Minister Andrew Barr was upbeat about continuing to work with the Greens but said talks would need to include some form of written agreement around supply and confidence.

“We’ve worked effectively together in spite of some policy differences and we would endeavour to continue a constructive working relationship with the Greens,” he told the ABC.

“Exactly what form that will take remains to be worked through, but we are open to a number of different options and we respect whatever decision they make as to whether they would seek to stay on the crossbench or be part of the cabinet.

“I think an important thing, necessarily, is some form of written agreement around supply and confidence, but we do recognise that they will want to take a moment to reflect on tonight’s result.”

Mr Barr also had a word for the independents, acknowledging that all parties had lost votes to them.

“It would seem that the small swings against Labor and the Greens and the Liberals are largely going to independents, so that needs to be respected,” he said.

Mr Barr said that as counting continued, there seemed to be quite a difference between votes cast on polling day and votes cast during the pre-poll period.

Andrew Barr celebrating the 2024 election win with his family. Photo: Oliver Jacques.

UPDATE 11 pm: Barr claims victory

A triumphant Chief Minister Andrew Barr has claimed victory for Labor in today’s ACT election, vowing that there would not be any backing away from climate action and his government would press on with extending light rail to Woden.

The win gives Labor a seventh term and 27 years in power.

Although the situation remains fluid in a couple of the seats, Labor looks likely to govern with the support of the Greens, although Mr Barr expressly included other independent crossbenchers in his victory speech, saying there were progressive candidates that would support a Labor government.

“There’s a little bit of counting to go, but it does look like the crossbench will be five, and five people who hold progressive values, and whose natural partner would be a Labor government,” he said.

Mr Barr said Canberrans had again voted to extend light rail.

“A strong public transport system that connects south of Lake Burley Griffin into the National Triangle, where 50,000 people work and 5 million tourists a year visit, is the right decision for Canberra’s transport future,” he said.

“So too is electrifying our bus fleet and electrifying our city. We will not take a backward step on climate action.”

Mr Barr said Labor took a progressive agenda supporting economic growth, climate action and investment in public services to the people of Canberra.

“We will take the progressive, practical and proven policies we’ve taken this election and enact them in government with the support, I hope, of a progressive crossbench that sees value in investing in public housing, in public health and public education,” he said.

Mr Barr acknowledged Opposition Leader Elizabeth Lee and the Canberra Liberals, and stressed the importance of a strong Opposition.

“Elizabeth rang me a little while ago in what is the hardest phone call to make in politics,” he said.

“It was graceful, short, but understandably, she and her team have worked incredibly hard and diligently and have received reasonable support across the community.

“We should acknowledge that and acknowledge the contribution that the Liberal Party make to our democracy. It is important that there is a strong opposition, and I congratulated Elizabeth.”

Mr Barr said it was a flawless campaign and thanked party officials, members and his staff, who made a hard job so much easier.

He also thanked his family, especially his partner of 25 years and husband, Anthony Toms, who was on stage with Mr Barr.

“And lastly, the man who has been my rock and my strength for 25 years. We met at the very first Canberra Spring Out Pride event on the 13th of November 1999, 25 years ago nearly.

“Anthony, I love you. And this, this is the moment that does tend to attract a little bit of national attention.”

They then embraced and kissed.

Elizabeth Lee’s husband, Nathan, Elizabeth Lee and Leanne Castley. Photo: Michelle Kroll.

UPDATE 10:30 pm: Kikkert fails in Ginninderra

Expelled Canberra Liberal Elizabeth Kikkert could not convert her 2020 following to a win tonight in Ginninderra, only polling 1662 votes.

The ultra-conservative Ms Kikkert joined Family First after being booted from the Liberal ticket over alleged bullying of party staff and electoral irregularities, which she has denied.

It seems newcomer Chiaka Barry will take a second Liberal seat in the Belconnen-based seat.

Liberals Ed Cocks and Amardeep Singh are locked in a tight battle for the party’s second seat in Murrumbidgee.

In Yerrabi, Labor’s Suzanne Orr has been returned and the Greens’ Andrew Braddock is hanging on, despite a strong showing by IFC’s David Pollard.

The situation in Brindabella is changing as the margins tighten.

Mick Gentleman is just behind Taimus Werner-Gibbings, and IFC’s Vanessa Picker is closing on the Liberals’ James Daniels.

That could have ramifications for post-poll bargaining if IFC increases its representation at the expense of the Greens.

But the Greens’ Laura Nuttall may still have a chance.

The Liberal swing is now 4.5 per cent in Brindabella; Labor is down 6.5 per cent.

UPDATE 9:30 pm: Lee concedes defeat

Labor has been returned to government for a seventh term and will govern with Green support after the Liberal surge fizzled as polling day votes saw their swing disappear.

Labor has taken a hit but the biggest beneficiary appears to be the Independents for Canberra movement and Fiona Carrick.

The likely numbers will be Labor 10, Liberal 10, Greens 3, IFC 1 and Fiona Carrick 1.

Opposition Leader Elizabeth Lee insisted that Canberra had voted for change despite falling short in her bid to overturn 23 years of Labor and Labor/Green rule.

Soon after the ABC called the election for Labor, Ms Lee fronted her supporters at the Services Club in Barton to concede.

“A few moments ago, I made the call, the hardest call, and the call that I wish that I did not have to make. But today the people of the Australian Capital Territory have spoken. They have voted for change but perhaps not quite enough to get us there,” Ms Lee said.

She said Andrew Barr and Shane Rattenbury appear to have cemented themselves in the history books as they embark perhaps on another coalition government.

“And despite our political differences, I do believe that we had a fairly cordial working relationship and I know that I’ve probably been a bit of a pain in their arses, but I promise it was to make them work.

“So I wish them both all the very best as they embark on this new term.”

Ms Lee took full responsibility for the defeat but insisted the Liberals were the better team.

“We have what it takes to deliver the refresh for the ACT that is sorely needed,” she said.

“And while it was not meant to be, I think that we can be proud of our efforts because we really did take it to Labor, and we closed the gap between the Labor and Liberal vote and we have gained two seats, one in Brindabella and one in Gininderra.”

Ms Lee said it was a missed opportunity, but the party should focus on its achievements.

“We put forward a strong positive plan and I’m very proud of being able to take that to Canberra,” she said.

Ms Lee thanked all the candidates, the party and her family.

“I know that I probably haven’t been the most present mother, sister, daughter or friend. I’m very grateful for the incredible support that they have given me.

“My parents and their unwavering support, Don and Cecilia, who took a leap of faith in 1986 moving from the country they know, the family they left behind to start this new life in Australia so that my sister and I could have a better life.”

Ms Lee would not say what the future held for her.

With 71.4 per cent of the vote counted, Labor suffered a swing of 3.2 per cent but the Liberals are now in negative territory at – 0.6 per cent. The Greens vote is now down 1.2 per cent.

Fiona Carrick and Marea Fatseas on the campaign. Photo: Supplied.

UPDATE 9:20 pm: Carrick claims a seat, wants ‘good community outcomes’

Likely new MLA for Murrumbidgee Independent Fiona Carrick had thanked her team, including running mates Marea Fatseas and Bruce Paine.

The strategy was to be visible in the community and discuss the issues.

“I have been working in the community for eight years, Maria for over 10 years,” she told the ABC.

“And we did decide that name recognition was the best way to go and it hopefully has paid off.”

She said the major issues would be housing, public housing and affordable housing.

“I’ve got ideas on those sorts of things we need to attract and retain our front-line services,” she said.

“Our health workers, our teachers, our police, so those are fundamental issues. So I will be looking at those, but also we want integrity. We want transparency.

“We want to have genuine conversations about what goes on in our election.”

Ms Carrick said she was prepared to work with all MLAs in the Assembly.

“I’m not really into ideology anymore,” she said. “I just want good community outcomes.”

But she remains unconvinced about light rail.

“Until the government can be transparent and tell us how many times people have to change, how long their journey time will be and whether it will be an attractive service to the whole of Canberra south, we don’t have the information to make an informed decision.”

Mark Parton on election day

Mark Parton on election day 2024. Photo: Mark Parton Facebook.

UPDATE 8:50 pm: Parton says the Liberals ‘aren’t out of it yet’

The Liberal vote is up 1 per cent, at this stage, but it’s not enough to win government.

The swing against Labor is 3.9 per cent but Labor appears to have leaked a lot of votes to independents, particularly IFC, and their preferences will be crucial.

Labor is confident that as booth totals come in from today its position will strengthen.

But Liberal Mark Parton remains upbeat, saying the fifth seats will go down to the wire.

“We’re not out of it yet,” he told the ABC.

With 54.7 per cent of the vote counted, Labor is polling 34 per cent, Liberals 34.9. Greens 11.7 and IFC 8.5 per cent.

Rebecca Vassarotti won’t be returning to the Assembly. Photo: Region.

UPDATE 8:26 pm: Greens lose three seats but likely still be kingmakers

The mood is upbeat at the Labor event at the Mercure Belconnen.

“We did a lot of door knocking, handing out and worked hard, it looks like it’s paid off. Looks like we’ll be in power for an Australian record, so we must be doing something right,” volunteer Aiden Hamilton said.

Yvette Berry said she was honoured to be re-elected and satisfied that the party looks as if it will retain all their seats.

The Greens are hanging on to three seats – Leader Shane Rattenbury in Kurrajong, Jo Clay in Ginninderra and Andrew Braddock in Yerrabi.

This is crucial because it means Labor with the Greens would achieve a majority and be returned to government.

But they have lost Emma Davidson in Murrumbidgee, Rebecca Vassarotti in Kurrajong and Laura Nuttall in Brindabella.

The Greens are still polling at 11.7 per cent, only down 1.8 per cent, but they have lost half their representation so far.

Senator David Pocock embraced his ACT counterpart this evening as he arrived to the group’s event at Dickson Taphouse.

Mr Pocock said the turn out is marvellous to see and shows that Canberrans are ready for more accountability to be provided in the next term of government.

The first independent senator ever elected to the Territory said he was incredibly proud of the largely self-driven efforts made by the independent candidates and its leader Thomas Emerson. He added that tonight’s already promising votes could see the ‘teal’ wave of influence continue across the country to every jurisdiction

Thomas Emerson voting

Independents for Canberra Kurrajong candidate Thomas Emerson looks likely to be elected. Photo: Supplied.

UPDATE 8:11 pm: Independents for Canberra likely to win a seat; Mick Gentleman in for a fight

The mood is ‘jubilant’ in the Dickson Taphouse this evening where Independents for Canberra have taken up half the venue to watch the election.

Leader Thomas Emerson has been taking centre stage for the ABC’s live election coverage but has been coy about where his preferences will lie if he is called on to decide the next Chief Minister.

Ben Johnston, one of their candidates, has kindly offered his very own venue to host a crowd of about 60 supporters and observers that have swung by their local for a Saturday night schooner.

The group of independents has been ecstatic to see their votes rise throughout the early evening. ‘From little things big things grow’ is playing on the speaker outside, a motto the group here is certainly living up to.

The early swing against Labor is abating as today’s votes come in, with the gap between the two major parties narrowing to 0.6 per cent.

Labor is now polling 34.3 per cent, Liberal 34.9, the Greens 11.6 per cent and IFC 8.2 per cent.

On that basis, it is looking harder for the Liberals to win government.

At this stage, the new Assembly appears to be Labor 10, Liberals 10, Greens 3, IFC 1, and Fiona Carrick.

UPDATE 7:50 pm: In Ginninderra, Labor’s Tara Cheyne and Yvette Berry, and the Liberals’ Peter Cain look to return to the Assembly.

In Brindabella, the Liberals’ Mark Parton is polling the most, and Deborah Morris and James Daniels will be new MLAs.

Labor’s Mick Gentleman is in trouble, which means Brindabella could have two new Labor MLAs in Caitlin Tough and Taimus Werner-Gibbings.

In Kurrajong, Opposition Leader Elizabeth Lee will return, as will Chief Minister Andrew Barr and Health Minister Rachel Stephen-Smith, but Green Rebecca Vassarotti appears to have lost her seat.

Independents for Canberra’s Thomas Emerson is also polling strongly and looks set for a seat.

In Yerrabi, Deputy Liberal leader Leanne Castley has been returned along with James Milligan.

Labor’s Michael Petterson is also going back to the Assembly.

In Murrumbidgee, Independent Fiona Carrick appears to have broken through in her bid.

Labor’s Chris Steel and Dr Marisa Paterson are also headed back, while Liberal Jeremy Hanson will join them.

Fiona Carrick is polling at almost double her 2020 results. Photo: Region.

UPDATE 7:05 pm: Early counting shows swing against Labor, Greens

Early results are showing a 1.9 per cent swing to the Canberra Liberals, with Labor suffering a 3.6 per cent loss overall and the Green vote down 2.4 per cent.

The Liberals have 35.7 per cent of the vote, Labor 34.6 per cent and the Greens 11.1 per cent. Independents for Canberra have so far garnered 8.2 per cent. Independent Fiona Carrick in Murrumbidgee is poling 12.4 per cent.

The most significant swing to the Liberals is occurring in Brindabella at 7.8 per cent, but it is much tighter elsewhere.

At this stage nine Labor, eight Canberra Liberals and one Green have been called across the ACT.

Elizabeth Lee voting

Opposition Leader Elizabeth Lee votes today in Kurrajong. Photo: Elizabeth Lee Facebook.

UPDATE 6:41 pm: Count begins in close ACT election

Polls have closed across the ACT and counting has begun to decide who will govern the Territory for the next four years.

About half the electorate had already voted before today and this means an early large dump of data should provide a good indication of where the night is headed.

However, the large number of independents will complicate the count, and some of the fifth seats in each electorate, in particular, may not be decided tonight.

The Canberra Liberals are confident that the hiccups in the campaign, especially Opposition Leader Elizabeth Lee’s now notorious finger, will not deter voters from embracing their large program.

But Labor believes they can defend their 10 seats and are even eyeing seats in Ginninderra and Brindabella.

The Greens may be struggling to retain their record six seats but hope their ambitious platform will keep them as a force in the Legislative Assembly.

But independents, particularly the Independents for Canberra movement, are the wild card and could end up being kingmakers.

No one knows where their preferences will flow and who successful candidates will support from the cross benches.

More to come.

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Nobody could believe how dumb Victoria was when Dan Andrew’s got reelected. Seems the ACT is just as dumb.

HiddenDragon8:15 pm 20 Oct 24

None of what happened last night, or what emerges from the coming days of counting, changes the fundamental fact that the ACT government is living well beyond its means.

In that respect, the ACT is in good company with every other sub-national jurisdiction (with the current exception of WA), but this result once again confirms that federal Labor can take the ACT for granted, and that the Coalition can go on viewing the ACT as enemy-occupied territory – neither will be falling over themselves with lavish handouts for our infrastructure wish-list or bail-outs for our struggling budget when there are so many genuinely winnable electorates to fight over elsewhere in the country.

With that in mind, with more fiscal pigeons likely to come home to roost and more promises likely to be unfulfilled over the next four years, the Green(s) and independents who end up on the cross-bench would be wise to keep a safe distance from the next Barr government – broad understandings on supply and confidence in return for much better accountability should be it. The most that any cross-bencher should accept is the position of Speaker – and do that with fierce independence.

The Liberals should have a laser-like focus on cost of living, service-delivery and solvency, and forget any big-ticket attempts at vote-buying – the latter only makes it easier for Labor and their apologists to deflect.

While a loss is a loss, the Liberals could take heart from the fact that they seem very likely to have the numbers to form a solid opposition, and in so doing have actually performed well by the standards of public sector towns – in Washington DC, which has not had a Republican mayor since 1961, the Democratic incumbent was re-elected in 2022 with 75% of the votes (the Republicans got 6% and a comedian running as an independent on a left-of-centre agenda got 15%) – so nil desperandum!

Two grown men embrassing on live television in prime time, bloody disgraceful.
Now everywhere I go I hear is Barr and his GreenLabor honcho’s destroying the ACT, all I can assume on Barrs votes all the fruits and freaks must live in his voting area or the town is as I have learned, full of fools and liars.
Don’t blame me for the next four years in which the ACT government will become broke or its citizens driven to it.

@32roadster
I have to applaud Barr (of whom I’m definitely not a fan) for predicting the furore that his “embrassing” (sic) of his partner of 25 years would generate. It really is hilarious to see how much it has caused the redneck homophobes to froth at the mouth.

Do you really have to post a picture of 2 homosexual men kissing. I don’t want to see that and sure as he’ll I don’t want my.kids to.see that.

@Michael M
And I don’t want to see posts from redneck homophobes but that’s the nature of democracy and free speech.

It really is stomach turning.

Oh dear goodness – the 1930s called, they’d like you back.

Of all the things to be offended by. And thank goodness your kids will grow up in a more inclusive society.

Yawn……

It is, and she exercised it. Bravo for democracy!

Point of order – a “phobe” is someone who is scared of said object. Someone can point out they don’t like something without other people throwing labels inaccurately around.

How does that old saying go – “Be careful what you wish for”

But hey, since when did the far Left actually care about humanity?

Its all about power, to them….and to hell with the consequences……Alea Iacta Est.

Future generations ( and us adults ) will have to pay for and mop up the current generations foolhardy version of what laughingly passes as “wisdom”.

@stevew77
“Point of order – a “phobe” is someone who is scared of said object”
Yeah – about that …
Definitions from Oxford Languages – homophobe: a person with a dislike of or prejudice against gay people.

There is no point of order.

And I don’t give a flying stuff what you do or don’t want. I’ve just exercised my democracy and free speech. Just saying

@Michael M
Indeed you have – and Andrew Barr has exercised his right to share a special moment with his partner of 25 years … get over it.

I put it to you that the oxford appears to incorrectly define what “phobe” actually means.

Like a lot of the media and wriiten word these days , there appears to be leftist influencing redefining words to suit a pro-alphabet agenda.

From websters dictionary

“Arachnaphobia – pathological fear or loathing of arachnids and especially spiders”

Are you suggesting a “homophobe” has a pathological fear or loathing of homosexuals?

Many people who some might emotively and incorrectly call a nonsense label of “homophobe” have in reality no fear or loathing of homosexuals.

I do recall the Left loves throwing around other divisive labels like “racist” – as its designed to deliberately disrupt normal debate as is the normal marxist agitprop

I’ d suggest the point of order still stands.

Yes there is a point of order.

From websters dictionary: “arachnaphobe : pathological fear or loathing of arachnids and especially spiders”

I dont see people who may peacefully and politely disagree with homosexuality as exhibiting pathological behaviour. Maybe in the minds of those seeking to control the debate , they seem to wrongly equate ” I disagree” with having a mental condition.

The Soviets used lock up any who disagreed with them by declaring them insane? It appears similar tactics are in use.

@stevew77
Unfortunately, your point of order only relates to homosexual spiders … so move on.

The soldered-on mulish Labour voting public servants have done it again. Moo, baa. But why the swing to independents!? A vote for an independent is a wasted vote, a step towards an ungovernable state. Well it looks like the tram to woden, a completely wasteful piece of eye-wateringly expensive and unnecessary infrastructure, at the cost of needed schools, hospitals and policing, will go ahead, with diasterous economic and social consequences.

It’s “Labor”, so that’s a dead giveaway that the OP is clueless but not one of these comments slagging off well over half the electorate that voted for anyone other than the Canberra Liberals is a good reason to vote for the Canberra Liberals…. Funny that.

Given you are trying to solder together various wildlife I am not surprised you have little grasp of working governments.

Apart from delighting at the prospect of Mr Gentleman ceding his seat, I retain a slim hope that a third independent will get up somewhere so we can have a proper minority government with negotiation options.

It is noteworthy that the votes lost by Labor and Greens went anywhere but to the Liberals. A general policy of stopping or undoing whatever people have voted for in the past is unlikely to win in the future. Liberals need to accept the electorate rather than try to dictate to it. Remember Seselja?

@byline
I’m also hopeful that:
a) “Sleepy” Mick Gentleman will slide even further into obscurity with a loss; and
b) Another independent will get over the line to give us that true minority government, which has a chance of ‘keeping the b*st*rds honest’.

Alas, I suspect the former is a much more likely outcome than the latter.

With votes still coming in, how can Labor declare victory? Lee can only declare concede defeat for herself, not the Liberal Party.

Because the Liberals would need all three of the remaining seats (with only one looking possible) and the two independents to form a government. The only party that can form a governing coalition is Labor, we’re just waiting to find out what the final makeup of that coalition will be.

That would be tricky, given she was not defeated but retained her seat. The Liberals, however, have no viable route to government so they conceded defeat.

Couldn’t give a …. about labour but I DONT WANT MY CHILD WHOS 4 SEE 2 MEN KISSING I don’t care who they are I do not want to see it in my feed

Grow up, it’s not contageous.

Living in what is one of, if not is the, most progressive electorates in the country, it’s easy to forget that pockets of ignorance exist.

I’ll do you a deal Anne. If you don’t want to see men kissing, then I don’t want to see opposite-sex couples kissing. Or hugging. Or holding hands. Anywhere. If same-sex couples can’t do it, then neither can opposite-sex couples. If one of those things is wrong, then both of those things are wrong. Fair is fair!

What’s that you say? If I see it, I should mind my own goddamn business and leave them in peace because they are doing nothing wrong and it doesn’t affect or concern me? That’s what I thought you’d say.

In which case, you should set an example for your children and teach them to do the same. They’ll end up being far better for it than teaching them to be ********* to other people just because you don’t agree with who they love.

YOU WILL EXPOSE YOUR CHILD TO PERVERSE DEGENERACY!

The 1850s called. They’d like you and your outdated view of the world back.

@Anne Hughes – so keep your child away from your phone … although perhaps if they see it, they won’t inherit your obvious homophobia.

Drake Knight12:47 pm 21 Oct 24

“I’m not homophobic, but…”

Hare Clark is a real bitch!

With months spent giving off false signals, on the big night she was seen tarting around with Hans on Cocks, with even Bert Poppins looking like he had a chance!

It seemed like those around me were losing it with the dog taking it out on his teddy bear! Yvette Berry in an interview was all smiles and deflection with Tara Cheyne looking a little worse for wear and not making sense!

Feeling like I had nowhere to go, thank goodness for Antony Green who came on to the screen and told me “Labor is back”!

It’s going to be funny if Ed Cocks has worked his butt off to convince people in this electorate that they’re not horrible misses out whilst Hanson who has largely been invisible and is one of the most horrible romps it into the assembly.

It’s kind of amusing to watch the grubby poors vote to price themselves out of Canberra every election.

@Ken M
It must really grate on your sense of superiority, that the vote of the ‘grubby poors’ has exactly the same electoral value as yours.

It is the born to rule mentality and sense of entitlement that we see from surly Canberra Liberals being played out in social media at this very moment Ken M and we see after every election. Snarling away on the sidelines, blaming the party’s loss on the “Grubby Poors”, those public servants and everyday Canberrans who the party holds in such contempt!

Those Canberrans who see through the Canberra Liberals’ lies and deception at every election and will continue to vote Labor into the future!

Castley and Parton…what a leadership team, both excellent performers. Interesting the reporter did a joint interview with them…. So different to Ms Lee. Parto, I told you!

Parton has effectively snookered himself if he has plans to take a leadership role. His high result in his electorate this time around was because he campaigned hard pushing the line that Tuggeranong is hard done by compared to other electorates. I won’t argue on whether this is or isn’t true, but if he ever wants to be a leader, he will have a responsibility to other electorates too. Does he acknowledge that there are areas of West Belconnen and Gungahlin that have even less facilities than Tuggers? If does so, will his own electorate think he is selling out?

Gregg Heldon12:02 pm 20 Oct 24

Whilst the overall outcome is not what I was hoping for, there are some positives.
The result in Brindabella is excellent. Hopefully Barr won’t be complacent about 20% of the Canberra population anymore.
The halving of the Greens vote should please everyone to the right of the far left. It also means that we will have a new Mental Health minister.
It was also good to see a genuine close vote and two genuine independent MLAs get in. Hopefully they vote on the policy and not the party.
I think, for the first time in a long time, the Government will have to govern for the people and not for vanity projects. There was a genuine protest vote here. They would be wise not to ignore it.

No mate, still a majority Labor/Green government, independents will be irrelevant.

@Gregg Heldon
While I am totally stoked to see two independent candidates get up, I don’t share your optimisim that “… the Government will have to govern for the people and not for vanity projects.”

Even with the advent of Emerson and Carrick, the Labor/Greens coalition looks highly likely to still hold a clear, albeit slim, majority in the LA.

So, unless there is a change to independent numbers, in the life of the next LA, bought about by a recount on the departure of a sitting member, it will be difficult for the independents to have an impact, even if they “vote on the policy and not the party” – which I also hope, and expect, they will do.

Why do Canberrans vote for a party that will continue to increase their rates and therefore their cost of living? Perhaps home owning rate payers tended to vote Liberal/Independents, but more non-home owning renters voted Labor/Greens.

Acton, based on your keen analysis there is a simple solution. All landlords should sell up to eliminate renters and increase owner-occupancy; ergo, fewer Labor and more Liberal voters. Are you on board?

Post script: Please list all Australian States in which rates and cost of living are not going up.

I’m a homeowner and so are many of our family and friends, and guess what those people like public transport, they’re worried about the environment and their kids’ futures, they support women making their own health care choices about their bodies, they don’t think you should be able to torture LGBT teens even if you call it “therapy”, they support people being able to choose to die with dignity. There’s more to it than just rates.

The real question is why do the Canberra Liberals insist on trying to force a far-right government on a progressive electorate? Surely with the Indis picking seats they’ve blown another opportunity for a small “L” socially moderate, rational on the environment conservative government.

Oh far right government my foot, go back to sleep seano!

Byline: None. Now you list all Australian States in which rates have tripled or gone up more than in the ACT.

Seano – You may find that in reality your perceived opponents actually share the same concerns and aspirations, although have different solutions. I would not describe the Canberra Liberals as far-right, unless I was so far-left and intolerant that anyone having a different opinion was automatically to be labelled a far-right conservative/reactionary/revisionist/heretic.

Elf, various Canberra Libs voted in favour of gay “conversion” therapy, voted against access to abortion care, voted against VAD, refused to disendorse bigots, Hanson’s a climate change denying edgelord…about time you woke up champ.

Oh please Acton, what do you call interfering in women’s healthcare? Or defending the torture of LGBT teens as supposed “therapy”, or attacking the rights of the dying? What do you call the climate change denial and online rage-baiting?

The fact that they disendorsed Kikkert and she slotted straight in at Family First is a dead giveaway that they’re far right wing.

Acton, thank you for accepting that your moan about rising living costs was pointless. Rates are read in conjunctión with stamp duty which has fallen here more than elsewhere. While that is an economic reform, a clearer picture can be found simply by comparing inflation across capitals.

I checked the last quarter at the ABS. Canberra’s inflation, cost of living, rose less than the national average.

Some people might vote for that, don’t you think?

Well with seanos first sebtence being a lie, you can probably fairly safely discount the rest of his rant as complete BS as well.

@Acton
“Why do Canberrans vote for a party that will …”
It’s called democracy, Acton – which, I know is hard for you to believe, but it can deliver a result you don’t like.

Way to miss the point, as usual, JS.

I believe he is asking why people would vote to increase their cost of living. As in, the thought process behind it, regardless of political party causing the raise.

davidmaywald9:35 am 20 Oct 24

Labor got barely more than one-third of first preference votes, and the largest negative swing of any party (losing almost ten percent of their votes from 2020). Who is going to keep the bastard honest? Any takers in the media, independents, Greens..,

@davidmaywald
“Labor got barely more than one-third of first preference votes, and the largest negative swing of any party …”
An interesting but irrelevant pair of stats – which are not confirmed, and will not be, until the official results are released by Elections ACT.

Nevertheless, on the first preference count from polling booths (which is purely a count that can be used by the media and election-night talking heads), Labor has still out polled all other parties in first preferences.

Yes labour had just more than one-third of first preference votes but still more than liberals. And not 10% swing against but 3.3%. And liberals also had a swing against them of 0.9%.
Liberals biggest gain and labors biggest loss was in tuggies which was expected given how they’re been treated.

The expected result, I’m not sure why anyone would be surprised.

GrumpyGrandpa8:45 am 20 Oct 24

I’m not surprised by the result. Canberra is a left-leaning town and our system of government pretty much guarantees a left-leaning alliance or a minority government.

The real disappointment is not so much that the ALP will probably be the major party, but that the Mr Barr has already said that he’ll be seeking out an alliance with the Greens. His other option would have been to govern as a minority government and negotiate his legislation.

With a minority government (and it doesn’t matter which party leads it), the government of the day is more accountable to the people (taxpayer), because of those checks and balances, remembering that we do not have an upper house. With a stitched up alliance, that accountability is taken away.

@GrumpyGrandpa
The (admittedly projected and not at all set) final outcome determines Barr’s reality.

Current predictions are:
– Labor = 10;
– Liberal = 10;
– Greens = 3;
– IFC = 1; and
– Other Ind = 1.

So whether or not Barr forms a coalition government with the Greens, if he negotiates with the two independent MLAs, he will still need one Green vote (assuming the Liberals all vote against) to pass any legislation.

So in essence the Greens, or at best one Green, will always hold the ‘balance of power’.

Not the outcome I was hoping to see, but as I said the other day – the pressure is now on Emerson and Carrick to demonstrate their mettle. If they prove their effectiveness, then perhaps 2028 will deliver a (IMHO) better result – if not, they may be one-term wonders.

The greens will always join with Labor to govern otherwise they get no ministries and the perks and power that goes with it. Barr should be smart this time and call the greens bluff and offer them no concessions on their policies. They have zero power to force Labor on anything.

@Elf
Unfortunately, the reality doesn’t translate well for your scenario. On projected outcome, Liberals + Greens = 13 votes, to Labor + independents = 12.

So if the cards fall as predicted, which is definitely not a given, Labor will need a least one Greens vote to pass legislation – assuming the Liberals will typically vote “No”.

They say Canberrans are the smartest people in the country. Doesn’t say much for the intelligence of Australians.

@J Vale
Oh, so people are only smart if they vote the way you want?

Unbelievable,obviously nobody seems to care about our massive deficit,its projected we will have a deficit of 16.2 billion by years 26 &27,to service this dept its going to cost 600 million a year,and of course we have the ever increasing dept of this light rail which is far from complete,so when all your rates start going up again very soon, and everything else is costing a arm and a leg,just remember who voted in this guy that has never produced a surplus in his whole career

Please go and learn the difference between deficit and debt.

Capital Retro5:43 pm 21 Oct 24

Great answer JS9. No wonder we are where we are.

As a worker at ACT Government it is impossible not to vote for Labor I guess, but the sentiment is changing and this is not a great result for a party that just has to fall over the tryline whilst not dropping the ball.
The debt is enormous for a small population, and whilst the wealth of Canberra enables it to have nice things, it should and could be doing so much better.
That means more responsible business management, more efficient, well-funded administration, stronger performance-managed leadership, and more maturity in decision-making and understanding costings. Colleagues who have come from overseas or moved down from Sydney are in a state of disbelief at how sloppy we are under the surface with huge owed internal debt in management systems and a pre-transformation mindset that is at least 10 years behind Europe.
This continues because there is an assumption that you just have to hold your hand out and somebody will put money into it, but it’s pretty irresponsible stuff and nothing to be proud of.

We should be world leaders with what we’ve got at our disposal, the left wing/right wing arguments are just pure laziness and spiting each other is just missing the point.
Where is the collective pursuit of excellence, how do things like the DHR debacle happen, the Campbell school tender, the HR system failure, the lack of visible leadership willing to take real accountability and lead by example? Hundreds of millions of dollars disappeared.
Are there more of these coming?
Hopefully the swing is a wake-up call for politicians and they will begin to have an eye on the future when they are making promises and they will get to grips with what they manage. Do it properly, manage better, earn respect.

privatepublic2:28 pm 20 Oct 24

I suspect after talking to two senior organisational change managers there will be redundancies within the ACTPS within the next 24 months. Happy to be proved wrong. Taking in mind the CM will most probably retire after his current term, so no matter what happens in the meantime, as long as he can fly away, he simply does not care.

My kid and friends who are in their early twenties were looking forward to more land being released via Kowan Forest, buy a small parcel and pay it off. Now the cheapest 1-bedroom flats are roughly 400K+ (give or take). The repayments after Stamp Duty (was meant to have been removed as Andrew Barr promised) and 5-10% deposit and other costs would roughly be 2.2-2.5 K per month. We did some calculations and noted their base wage on borrowing (not taking into account other factors such as interest rates movements – massive slowdown in China) would have to be in the comfort zone of about 100K not including super. Not one of the friends yet earns that amount, they will eventually, with the mindset that the price of the property will gain Significantly under the current government and its LACK of land release policies. From my observations the Canberran younger generation have surprised me somewhat of voting Liberal as they don’t give a rats about being Progressive (we are already there), they care about financial issues that affect them and their friends.

I’ve said here before that the phasing out of stamp duty should not have progressed without some major other reform to provide revenue rather than just rates, but just where did Barr, or anyone, promise to have stamp duty phased out by this point? It has always been a 20 year + expectation in that regard, and we are nowhere near that point….

Like the clowns that pretend Albanese promised that electricity prices would drop, when all he actually promised was they’d be lower than they would be otherwise. READ THE FINE PRINT.

And you’ve got some odd friends if you think more generally younger generations are ‘voting liberal’ in any great numbers…..

privatepublic10:04 am 21 Oct 24

Meant my kids friends voted libs, eye opener as I thought they were Green or Labor supporters, only four of them plus my kiddie.

I suspect the wider cohort is likely not to reflect such widely said views – it will be interesting to see if any decent analysis is done around voting trends post election (I very much doubt it).

privatepublic3:48 pm 21 Oct 24

I agree with you JS9 around voting trend analysis. As for the kids, they are all around 20 years of age and all are dual citizens. Three of the countries do not allow DC, however, look the other way for the most part with the younger generation. They have all voted either here or in the country during their respective elections, possibly why they are not the usual cohort at their ages. One thing my kid brought up is the weekend busses of two hour waits and housing.

To paint the small cohort of the five. One is a Canadian (with a little Canadian first nations – very strict weekly Born Again Christian), Malaysian (Muslim – not practicing/no head covering), Thai (Buddhist – sometimes goes to the temple), Indian (Hindu – not practicing) and Serbian (Orthodox – occasionally goes to church). Makes me wonder how other people in a comparable situation vote.

I am utterly ashamed with the Canberran’s that voted Labor into power again. I really do wonder what sort of bubble they live in that they would think that Labor are in in way, shape or form what is good for the majority of people that actually want to thrive here.

Ah, geez give it a rest. The Liberals aren’t in the majority, they lost and it’s their own fault.

There’s clearly a path to power for a moderate, sensible, small “L” Liberal party but the reactionary Libs won’t let that happen.

Instead, they try cheap political cons…

Last time they tried to distract the electorate from the ratbags with Coe copying unbelievably lame stunts straight from Boris Johnston and this time instead of stunts, they’ve tried to hide the ratbags behind the pretence that Lee was a moderate conservative (which she isn’t) and guess what…the electorate still ain’t buying.

IDK maybe…just maybe, it’s time for the Libs to grow up and have a think about it, maybe it’s you not us.

Meh.

We won the important vote, on the voice, it does seem the public is getting sick of far left policies.

Local politics, cool, we get a monorail.

And when budget issues come home to roost, unlike has happened at federal level several times, the ball and the blame won’t be being carried by the not guilty party.

Patrick Keogh9:42 am 20 Oct 24

Spot on. It appears that the Libs do not understand the difference between having a personal ideology and promoting it (no problem with that) and having a philosophy and platform that the average Canberra voter would vote for.

The Libs continue to work hard for the vote of 40% of Canberrans and they get it. The Labor/Green coalition works hard for the vote of 60% of Canberrans and they get it. Election after election after election. Even when voters choose to not support the coalition and instead vote for independents, they vote for left of centre independents.

Meanwhile, in my judgement, the Libs have returned a more right wing group of candidates than those departing. The fault for this lies in the Liberal Party branches. All music to the ears of the Labor Party!

Otoh, greens representation collapsed, so that’s great.

Speaks to the city remembering it’s naturally a centre-left place, not a far left one.

Lol, you really have a strange idea of ‘far left policies’, if that one is raised as one, or if you think there are many, if any far left policies in Australia.

Same to those that decry far right policies…

Yes the conservative faction rules the Liberals here, but they aren’t far right. But equally – the voice proposal was not a ‘far left policy’ in any given form or shape.

But hey, throw buzz words out there and you might think they make you look clever – instead they just make you look plain silly.

100% this.

I don’t know them all but as far as I can see there are no moderates left in the Liberal Party and that includes Lee.

The Canberra Liberals by constantly trying to either trick or cajole the ACT electorate into electing a reactionary Liberal party is the definition of madness, doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

Our democracy is a complete lie.
Another 4 years of the Greens telling Labor what to do = we all pay more and socialism continues to sky rocket.

Democracy is not a lie because you don’t get the result you want.

Sulwood drive failure has triggered an uplift in Kambah votes for Labor!

Hard to see how many of the seats have been called given the hair tight margins and the fun of HC voting system.

Canberra is a really intelligent mob

Yea I used to be on the north team, but being down south this last year – it’s a breath of fresh air.
North’s gone from a big small town to a shit small city last 20 years, Brindabella…

Well, where’s our f’ing dual carriageway hmm?

I’m fascinated to see what terms the Greens party will ask to partner with Labor?

My early tip for the next election, the Liberals learn nothing from another defeat, the ALP, Greens and Indis exchange some seats and the Liberals remain in the wilderness.

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