Election Betting Market update - Liberals still friendless

desmondgale said :

I am definitely a valliterian. Taxes are one of my issues. The provides us with absolutely no information.
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desmondgale

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…..spambot?

Caf: I wasn’t really accusing you, it’s just a common thing I hear. If you are sympathetic I can dig my friend. There are so many much bigger problems than licensing for doctors that I won’t hold that against you 😉

In the absence of public polling this is the best data we’ve got.

For mine I wouldn’t be punting till much closer to election day though.

As I indicated in my posting under “election wrap”, Labor will take some pain but be able to form a cross bench government. I see disunity being a problem for the Liberals. If they want to punish Labor, the community will place their votes with independents rather than the Liberals. Even Liberal voters will tell you they have long memories about some divisive people in the party and will not vote for many of their own candidates. This is the election to be a Green candidate. I can’t see right wing candidates doing well. We need to remember that Stanhope is a strong leader. Moreover, the Budget is in surplus, and there have been no major scandals or whiff of corruption.

I am definitely a valliterian. Taxes are one of my issues. The provides us with absolutely no information.
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desmondgale

Job Opportunities

I don’t really see the point to the betting odds being posted. Judging by the graph and the variances, or lack there of, between weeks I would guess about 5 people have placed a bet on the result. The graph provides us with absolutely no information whatsoever and is in no way related to what may happen in the election, given that the last 2 state/territory elections the betting odds were predicting the same thing and saw one government hold on by a seat and the other lose. Pointless..

jakez: I’m not attempting any kind of “trick”. I have a lot of sympathy for the libertarian cause (I cannot call myself a libertarian though, because I do believe that are kinds of Government regulation that are necessary – for example, licensing medical practioners. I am also in favour of gun control).

I am merely putting my opinion on the LDP out there, based on what I have read from several of their candidates that were running in the last Federal election (I have not looked further into them for this local election, because I do not imagine they have changed significantly since last November). Like it or not, the LDP has endorsed enough loopy individuals that I am very wary of them now.

i am definitely a walletarian. all money in my wallet.

I vote based on the policies and past track record. I will weigh up the others, but the ALP has lost me completely.

In most jurisdictions in Australia, the Greens are just the left wing of the ALP.
Because the local ALP is what it is here, the ACT Greens are the loony-left of the ALP.

Caf: I think your comments on LDP candidates is completely unfounded and a common trick attempting to paint libertarians as ‘walletarians’.

It’s all the same anyway. Taxes are one of my big issues but I actually started down the libertarian path through a roaring hatred of the OFLC.

Secondly, I am a paid up member of the Liberal Party, trying to make them live up to the name from the inside. I’m simply making the very ambiguous statement that I would like to see the LDP on the crossbenches.

Thirdly: Yep good call. I didn’t mean to leave them out I just forgot about them. A lot of ALP voters (particularly leftish ones) might switch to the Greens. Those votes will most likely either elect a Green or come back to the ALP. I don’t think that is much of a loss for the ALP.

Oh and jake, you’ve conveniently left the Greens out of your possible destinations for disaffected Labor voters.