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Election Betting Market update – Liberals still friendless

caf 26 September 2008 24

After a week of campaigning that’s brought us nothing more substantial than Bartlett-gate, the 3-to-1 return on the Liberals hasn’t been enough to attract them more support in the betting market. Prices stayed flat until this morning, when the ALP shortened again slightly.

Note that the depth of this market is probably not that great (to say the least), so to some extent this is just so much reading tea-leaves. Does anyone find the 3.25-to-1 return on the Liberals tempting? Or even the 30% return you’ll see on Labor?

ACT Election Market 26/09


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24 Responses to Election Betting Market update – Liberals still friendless
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jakez 4:14 pm 28 Sep 08

[quote comment="137851"]I am definitely a valliterian. Taxes are one of my issues. The provides us with absolutely no information.

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desmondgale

Job Opportunities[/quote]

.....spambot?

Caf: I wasn't really accusing you, it's just a common thing I hear. If you are sympathetic I can dig my friend. There are so many much bigger problems than licensing for doctors that I won't hold that against you ;-)

johnboy 9:03 am 28 Sep 08

In the absence of public polling this is the best data we've got.

For mine I wouldn't be punting till much closer to election day though.

disenfranchised 7:43 am 28 Sep 08

As I indicated in my posting under "election wrap", Labor will take some pain but be able to form a cross bench government. I see disunity being a problem for the Liberals. If they want to punish Labor, the community will place their votes with independents rather than the Liberals. Even Liberal voters will tell you they have long memories about some divisive people in the party and will not vote for many of their own candidates. This is the election to be a Green candidate. I can't see right wing candidates doing well. We need to remember that Stanhope is a strong leader. Moreover, the Budget is in surplus, and there have been no major scandals or whiff of corruption.

desmondgale 9:49 pm 27 Sep 08

I am definitely a valliterian. Taxes are one of my issues. The provides us with absolutely no information.

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desmondgale

Job Opportunities

bd84 9:52 pm 26 Sep 08

I don't really see the point to the betting odds being posted. Judging by the graph and the variances, or lack there of, between weeks I would guess about 5 people have placed a bet on the result. The graph provides us with absolutely no information whatsoever and is in no way related to what may happen in the election, given that the last 2 state/territory elections the betting odds were predicting the same thing and saw one government hold on by a seat and the other lose. Pointless..

caf 9:11 pm 26 Sep 08

jakez: I'm not attempting any kind of "trick". I have a lot of sympathy for the libertarian cause (I cannot call myself a libertarian though, because I do believe that are kinds of Government regulation that are necessary - for example, licensing medical practioners. I am also in favour of gun control).

I am merely putting my opinion on the LDP out there, based on what I have read from several of their candidates that were running in the last Federal election (I have not looked further into them for this local election, because I do not imagine they have changed significantly since last November). Like it or not, the LDP has endorsed enough loopy individuals that I am very wary of them now.

peterh 5:08 pm 26 Sep 08

i am definitely a walletarian. all money in my wallet.

I vote based on the policies and past track record. I will weigh up the others, but the ALP has lost me completely.

Aurelius 5:00 pm 26 Sep 08

In most jurisdictions in Australia, the Greens are just the left wing of the ALP.

Because the local ALP is what it is here, the ACT Greens are the loony-left of the ALP.

jakez 4:56 pm 26 Sep 08

Caf: I think your comments on LDP candidates is completely unfounded and a common trick attempting to paint libertarians as 'walletarians'.

It's all the same anyway. Taxes are one of my big issues but I actually started down the libertarian path through a roaring hatred of the OFLC.

Secondly, I am a paid up member of the Liberal Party, trying to make them live up to the name from the inside. I'm simply making the very ambiguous statement that I would like to see the LDP on the crossbenches.

Thirdly: Yep good call. I didn't mean to leave them out I just forgot about them. A lot of ALP voters (particularly leftish ones) might switch to the Greens. Those votes will most likely either elect a Green or come back to the ALP. I don't think that is much of a loss for the ALP.

caf 4:45 pm 26 Sep 08

Oh and jake, you've conveniently left the Greens out of your possible destinations for disaffected Labor voters.

caf 4:44 pm 26 Sep 08

Encouraging votes for the LDP? I thought you were a paid up member of the Liberals, trying to make them live up to the name from the inside?

Seriously, the LDP may be the only party in this election standing for actual libertarian values, but they seem to attract far more candidates down the "abolish the ATO" end of the spectrum rather than the "abolish the OFLC" end.

peterh 4:39 pm 26 Sep 08

[quote comment="137702"]I don't think that's accurate Thumper. There are many 'ALP voters' who aren't voting for the ALP and you just need to be out and about to feel it and hear it.

Whether these votes elect a CAP, head to the Libs, elect someone from the LDP (I can dream), or head back to the ALP, is something we won't know until election night.

In that discovery, we will find out who will form Government.[/quote]

I was a labor voter. I was. I voted for fed labor, but I am stuffed if i will vote the alp back in for the act govt. too many mistakes, a long run at the blame game, and a couple of broken promises have soured my view of the local ALP.

jakez 4:34 pm 26 Sep 08

I don't think that's accurate Thumper. There are many 'ALP voters' who aren't voting for the ALP and you just need to be out and about to feel it and hear it.

Whether these votes elect a CAP, head to the Libs, elect someone from the LDP (I can dream), or head back to the ALP, is something we won't know until election night.

In that discovery, we will find out who will form Government.

PM 3:24 pm 26 Sep 08

I'm not sure about what you mean by "fully" preferential.

The minumum number of preferences for a valid vote is the number of vacancies for the seat (ie 5 or 7, depending).

Therefore, it is possible for votes to expire. Just thought I'd make that quick point.

johnboy 3:09 pm 26 Sep 08

[quote comment="137636"]In terms of the new candidates, I have my eye on Mike Hettinger from the ALP - a resume that looks the goods, and a haircut you could set your watch by.[/quote]

Mike came very close last time around, very very close.

Will he get over the line second time around? Or will there be a soufflé effect?

Thumper 2:50 pm 26 Sep 08

Fully preferential. Point taken.

caf 2:48 pm 26 Sep 08

In terms of the new candidates, I have my eye on Mike Hettinger from the ALP - a resume that looks the goods, and a haircut you could set your watch by.

caf 2:45 pm 26 Sep 08

It's a fully preferential system Thumper. Votes don't get "lost" or "wasted" (those votes will more-or-less end up where they would have, had the unelected candidates not stood).

Thumper 1:21 pm 26 Sep 08

It does stand up caf. If CAP and the motorist party were taken out of the picture where would those votes go?

Whoops, hang on, I meant have Motorists party in there as well. Sorry about that.

Either way, it's a minority ALP government.

CAP looked the real deal for a while but then seemed to splinter into a loose sort of coalition of independents rather than a truly united party.

The Libs look reasonable but are still carry a lot of dead wood plus one of their stalwarts decided to take the cash and run.

Motorists party should be banned for wasting everyone's time.

ALP, although carrying some underperformers still have the profile in Stanhope and gallagher, plus Barr to get back in.

Although it will be interesting to see how the new candidates will shape up.

caf 1:11 pm 26 Sep 08

That analysis doesn't stand up, Thumper. If enough of those votes go to CAP to elect a CAP member, they're likely to support a Liberal minority government over Labor. Alternatively, if a CAP member doesn't get in, the votes will flow back to the Liberals.

The issue the others are alluding to is that neither Liberal nor Labor are likely to get a majority in their own right, so whatever Government we have will be reliant on other members for support. Since those "other members" are looking more likely to be Greens than conservative-leaning independents, the ALP looks more likely to get that support right now.

I don't agree with comments that it's "in the stars" or somehow the result of bad luck though - the more coldly rational explanation is that the "leftish" side of politics is likely to get more seats than the "rightish".

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