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Election Betting Market update – Liberals still friendless

By caf - 26 September 2008 24

After a week of campaigning that’s brought us nothing more substantial than Bartlett-gate, the 3-to-1 return on the Liberals hasn’t been enough to attract them more support in the betting market. Prices stayed flat until this morning, when the ALP shortened again slightly.

Note that the depth of this market is probably not that great (to say the least), so to some extent this is just so much reading tea-leaves. Does anyone find the 3.25-to-1 return on the Liberals tempting? Or even the 30% return you’ll see on Labor?

ACT Election Market 26/09

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24 Responses to
Election Betting Market update – Liberals still friendless
caf 4:45 pm 26 Sep 08

Oh and jake, you’ve conveniently left the Greens out of your possible destinations for disaffected Labor voters.

caf 4:44 pm 26 Sep 08

Encouraging votes for the LDP? I thought you were a paid up member of the Liberals, trying to make them live up to the name from the inside?

Seriously, the LDP may be the only party in this election standing for actual libertarian values, but they seem to attract far more candidates down the “abolish the ATO” end of the spectrum rather than the “abolish the OFLC” end.

peterh 4:39 pm 26 Sep 08

jakez said :

I don’t think that’s accurate Thumper. There are many ‘ALP voters’ who aren’t voting for the ALP and you just need to be out and about to feel it and hear it.

Whether these votes elect a CAP, head to the Libs, elect someone from the LDP (I can dream), or head back to the ALP, is something we won’t know until election night.

In that discovery, we will find out who will form Government.

I was a labor voter. I was. I voted for fed labor, but I am stuffed if i will vote the alp back in for the act govt. too many mistakes, a long run at the blame game, and a couple of broken promises have soured my view of the local ALP.

jakez 4:34 pm 26 Sep 08

I don’t think that’s accurate Thumper. There are many ‘ALP voters’ who aren’t voting for the ALP and you just need to be out and about to feel it and hear it.

Whether these votes elect a CAP, head to the Libs, elect someone from the LDP (I can dream), or head back to the ALP, is something we won’t know until election night.

In that discovery, we will find out who will form Government.

PM 3:24 pm 26 Sep 08

I’m not sure about what you mean by “fully” preferential.

The minumum number of preferences for a valid vote is the number of vacancies for the seat (ie 5 or 7, depending).

Therefore, it is possible for votes to expire. Just thought I’d make that quick point.

johnboy 3:09 pm 26 Sep 08

caf said :

In terms of the new candidates, I have my eye on Mike Hettinger from the ALP – a resume that looks the goods, and a haircut you could set your watch by.

Mike came very close last time around, very very close.

Will he get over the line second time around? Or will there be a soufflé effect?

Thumper 2:50 pm 26 Sep 08

Fully preferential. Point taken.

caf 2:48 pm 26 Sep 08

In terms of the new candidates, I have my eye on Mike Hettinger from the ALP – a resume that looks the goods, and a haircut you could set your watch by.

caf 2:45 pm 26 Sep 08

It’s a fully preferential system Thumper. Votes don’t get “lost” or “wasted” (those votes will more-or-less end up where they would have, had the unelected candidates not stood).

Thumper 1:21 pm 26 Sep 08

It does stand up caf. If CAP and the motorist party were taken out of the picture where would those votes go?

Whoops, hang on, I meant have Motorists party in there as well. Sorry about that.

Either way, it’s a minority ALP government.

CAP looked the real deal for a while but then seemed to splinter into a loose sort of coalition of independents rather than a truly united party.

The Libs look reasonable but are still carry a lot of dead wood plus one of their stalwarts decided to take the cash and run.

Motorists party should be banned for wasting everyone’s time.

ALP, although carrying some underperformers still have the profile in Stanhope and gallagher, plus Barr to get back in.

Although it will be interesting to see how the new candidates will shape up.

caf 1:11 pm 26 Sep 08

That analysis doesn’t stand up, Thumper. If enough of those votes go to CAP to elect a CAP member, they’re likely to support a Liberal minority government over Labor. Alternatively, if a CAP member doesn’t get in, the votes will flow back to the Liberals.

The issue the others are alluding to is that neither Liberal nor Labor are likely to get a majority in their own right, so whatever Government we have will be reliant on other members for support. Since those “other members” are looking more likely to be Greens than conservative-leaning independents, the ALP looks more likely to get that support right now.

I don’t agree with comments that it’s “in the stars” or somehow the result of bad luck though – the more coldly rational explanation is that the “leftish” side of politics is likely to get more seats than the “rightish”.

Thumper 12:58 pm 26 Sep 08

I believe I may have mentioned that quite a while ago…

ALP voters will still vote ALP whereas disenchanted Libs are more likely to go to CAP, thus leaving the way clear for the ALP.

jakez 12:54 pm 26 Sep 08

I agree with johnboy. The Libs biggest problem won’t be themselves, but the minor parties. The Libs need the stars to align there for them the get Government and I think that is the biggest hurdle.

Thumper 12:46 pm 26 Sep 08

Interesting that the ALP seem to have decided to go soley with a united Stanhope/ Gallagher front.

Are they deliberately keeping Barr in the background? And if they are, why?

johnboy 12:05 pm 26 Sep 08

The conservative independents are going to need to do a lot more to have any chance.

And if they don’t get up it’s hard to see how the Liberals can form a government.

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