Face masks to become mandatory in the ACT from midnight

I was at the gym with 2 others in attendance.

A relatively young person on the running machine was wearing a mask and surgical gloves.

In the ACT. With zero evidence of the virus present. And a virus of mild consequence to under 40s.

There certainly are some mental health effects.

Make sure the mask sits across the bridge of your nose, then pop your glasses on top of/ over the edge of the mask. Not sure if you tried this, but works for most people I know.

Na. tried two different masks – the surgical type and a P2. Fogged glasses

There has literally been 1 death from covid this year, so if the only relevant metric is illness, our governments have done well

And on that metric alone, the non idealogical, straight arrows in Victoria (who still cannot work out who engaged the security guards to look after quarantine), don’t look so good.

But yes, the praise for Gladys was entirely over the top. She’d got lucky. Not so much now.

I don’t think whatwik is arguing against the success of our response to COVID. He’s just pointing out that it was driven by the state and territory governments. Scott Morrison was too busy asking everyone to go to the footy when this all first started despite state health authorities pleading otherwise, and the federal response has represented that through the entire saga.

The “success” of the states and territories is summed up by Barr forcing people to quarantine (with no plan to support them financially) and then “fighting” for the Feds to fund it.

Yes yes. We’ve heard it all before from the likes of you. You’re not driving, you’re travelling. The earth is flat. the global elites are farming Adrenochrome in pizza shops, trump won the election blah blah blah.

You should leave for the bastions of freedom that are India and Brazil post haste. Plenty of virus to live with there.

I have no idea what you are babbling on about. If you have nothing sensible to say then go back to your play-station.

Totally agreed. Making people wear a preventative mask is almost as bad as the way the dictators make us all drive on the same side of the road to “prevent” other people being injured or dying. What about my car, my property, my choice…what about my entitlement to choose whatever side of the road I want to drive on? If people are killed, then that’s just survival of the fittest and then we can all get back to life. Prevention – bah. Enduring a mild bit of discomfort so that others may live, keep their businesses open, continue to stay connected to family just has no value in a free society.

Clap. Clap. Clap. Irrelevant diversions are a debating tactic that fail to constitute a convincing rebuttal. Stick to the reality, no cases in Canberra, and not imagined scenarios. The only way through this panpanic is rational thought and a prevalence of calm leadership over mass hysteria.

No “reported” cases in Canberra.

It only takes one person not following quarantine rules, like Syney Melbourne and Adelaide AND then it goes to poo.

I do enjoy your spittle filled, keyboard mashing anti-facist rants.

After re-reading George Orwell’s classic novel, 1984 it is disconcerting to observe the creeping similarities between the society portrayed in that book and the docile behaviour of people under goverments in 2021. In 1984, a contrived and exaggerated emergency is used as an excuse to impose more and more totalitarian like restrictions on civil liberties, until those liberties are but memories. We all have an obligation to resist the removal of our rights. Viruses come and go and this current one is nasty, but not cause for panic and over reaction.

Depends on how old you are and what co-morbidities you might have. The only over-reaction I’m seeing is yours.

Nah mate. I wasn’t using imagined scenarios. I was using a metaphor. It’s a different commuincative device. In any case, imagined scenarios are actually essential to human thinking. Taking an umbrella (or not)? You’re imagining a scenario. Getting your car serviced before something goes wrong? Choosing not to smoke? You’re imagining a scenario. Unless you’re a psychic, any action to you take for future benefit is scenario-based. As far as 1984 goes…I suggest you re-read it again. That book is about **civil** liberties: that is the right to live relatively free interference of arbitary laws, and to only be subjected to laws which are for the common good. Civil liberties are exactly that: civil. They don’t extend to any person being entitled to do whatever they want or feel they are entitled to if it harms others. Driving on the correct side of the road, not flogging your wife, not engaging in hate speech and – for the time being – wearing a mask are not civil liberty infringements.

Daveking,
Are you honestly comparing driving on the wrong side of the road, bashing your wife and hate speech as equivalent to mandating the wearing of masks in a city that currently (And for a long while) has had zero cases of Covid?

A restriction of civil liberties must be matched with a consideration of risks with clear benefits that far outweigh those risks.

I have no idea how anyone can currently say that such a situation currently exists in Canberra.

The short answer is yes. Covid is so contagious that it quickly spreads. It’s not just that vulnerable people are at much higher risk of serious complications and death (though that should be reason enough). Once it’s out of control, hospitals become overloaded, other sick people die, people stop seeing the doctor, nutters strip the shelves of toilet paper and food (depriving people like the elderly who can’t afford to hoard). Businesses have to shut, families have to go into lockdown, people begin to suffer mentally, domestic violence and child abuse goes up…it’s pretty grim. I agree it’s harder for some people to “see” the link because it’s not necessarily a directly “observable” relationship – but yep: if an outbreak occurrs here, it has really significant, even devestating, consequences for lots of folk. These are things that I am sure we’d all like to avoid if we can at least we would agree on that? Thankfully we’ve been able to do so in the ACT so far, but that’s probably – mostly – because the outbreaks have been relatively confined, and to places who have done the hard yards with lockdowns on our behalf (thanks Victorians). This is an entirley different situation now: there’s a new strain, and the outbreaks are much closer (and, as we’ve seen, numbats who breach the rules are plentiful). Personally, I do believe we have an obligation to wear a mask during this time, to try and avoid the consequences of an outbreak here: even if I am not directly impacted by the consequences, I actually care about others in our community. Wearing a mask for a bit and being extra careful to wash/ sanitise hands seems very reasonable to reduce or avoid any cases here.

Daveking,
I’d prefer to do things that will actually affect our risk profiles and make a meaningful difference to outcomes.

Mask wearing is a crutch that people are clinging to thinking it will make a difference when it won’t.

When we have no cases, the chances of a large and immediate outbreak are extraordinarily low. Look at Sydney at present and they’ve only had 150 odd cases over a couple of weeks since the outbreak. There is always time to move restrictions as cases emerge.

And if you actually look at where most of those Sydney cases have occurred, they have mostly been in homes, workplaces and at social gatherings where masks aren’t worn anyway.

And not only that, you’ve got to assume that people aren’t constantly touching or readjusting their masks which further degrades their effectiveness.

Masks may have a place where there are large, uncontrolled outbreaks with rampant community transmission but they are doing next to nothing and are probably counterproductive in Canberra. People are wearing them “think” they are protected, when the whole point in mask wearing is to protect others.

You are right that, generally speaking, masks tend to be more effective at preventing the escape of aerosols, than their inhalation. I have two concerns with this argument though:

(1) Protecting others is equally important as protecting oneself, when doing so only requires a mild discomfort and is unlikely to cause one any real harm; and
(2) The effect of a well-fitted mask made of appropriate materials on preventing inhalation is **not** at all negligible, and still offers some protection to the wearer.

(e.g. “When the source was unmasked and the receiver was fitted with the double mask or the knotted and tucked medical procedure mask, the receiver’s cumulative exposure was reduced by 83.0% (SD = 0.15) and 64.5% (SD = 0.03), respectively. When the source and receiver were both fitted with double masks or knotted and tucked masks, the cumulative exposure of the receiver was reduced 96.4% (SD = 0.02) and 95.9% (SD = 0.02), respectively.” – https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7007e1.htm?s_cid=mm7007e1_x)

Where we do might agree (and the research concurs) is that the mask effectiveness (in terms of spread or reception) is only as good as the materials used and their fitting. Otherwise you might as well walk around with a naked face rather than the numbats I saw this morning, one who waved a paper napkin over his face to mimic a mask, and another who rolled-up the neck of his skivvy to just under his bottom lip.

Did you read the bit of your own article that initial findings are that the Delta Variant increases the likelihood of hospitalization?

And the death rates are lower in the UK because half the UK population is vaccinated, particularly more so in the older, more susceptible age groups.

We should be highly sceptical of findings based on data out of an app, which relies on unverified selective self reporting and has been faulted on technical grounds.

Yes.

Flu puts people in hospital to.

RSM,
Yes, it can but is also far less deadly than COVID and Covid hospitalizations typically have worse outcomes than flu ones.

You’re trying to make the case that they are equivalent, when they aren’t. The Vaccines are what is reducing the seriousness of Covid infections over time, not that the virus itself is weakening.

So considering that Australia only has about 3% fully vaccinated, its not yet time to consider this over.

No i’m making the case that enough is enough.

And Chewy, you have well credentialed evolutionary biologists like Brett Weinstein, who have made a risk based decision not to get vaccinated. So this is not just about “anti-vaxxers”.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/are-covid-vaccines-riskier-than-advertised-11624381749

And why has big tech been censoring discussion around ivermectin? That dam wall also about to burst imho.

RSM,
The case that “what” is enough?

And the fact that you can find some people who dont want to get Vaccinated is irrelevant, I could similarly list tens of thousands of experts recommending vaccination.

And all of this is still ignores the fact that the clear, real world evidence is that the vaccines are working in preventing spread and seriousness of Covid.

You can’t use the evidence of the vaccines working as evidence that Covid isn’t serious. Its literally because of the vaccines that the situation is changing.

The real world evidence is that delta has a fatality rate of 0.1%. I’ve not said it’s not serious. My point is that the response to its seriousness is disproportionate.

If you are worried about it, get vaccinated and let others get on with their lives.

The costs are not being borne equally (i.e. look at those complaining about pay rises while their own employer literally issues orders which cause significant financial loss to others), and are not going to be.

A side point, but the shamelessness of the laptop class is really something to behold (albeit illuminating).

RSM,
Firstly, there’s no detailed peer reviewed evidence showing that the fatality rate is what you claim, it’s far too early to definitively tell. You’re plucking a number out of the air that suits your argument

And as I keep repeating and you keep ignoring, most of the early evidence on those numbers is showing that the countries with high vaccination rates are the ones with lower fatality rates because the vaccines are working.

“If you are worried about it, get vaccinated and let others get on with their lives.”

I’m fine with others not getting vaccinated. As long as they recognise that they are the reason why restrictions and lockdowns will continue. Because we cant open up until a sufficient proportion of the population is vaccinated to reduce the incidence of wide scale outbreaks.

“The costs are not being borne equally (i.e. look at those complaining about pay rises while their own employer literally issues orders which cause significant financial loss to others), and are not going to be.”

I agree. Which is why we need to get the majority of the population vaccinated and quickly.

No, this is not a binary situation. I reject that entirely.

Personally, i was anti lockdown from mid 2020. However, i could appreciate that absent treatment or vaccination options, public opinion would strongly favour it.

Now, 12 months later, has any politician articulated the metrics for reopening? Will we abandon lockdowns when X percentage of the population is vaccinated?
What is that percentage? Does it include under 18s? Under 30s? What’s the risk trade off for under 30s?

What about the (inevitable) variants which the vaccine is not particularly effective on? What are the implications of that for no future lockdowns?

And should i listen to people like the chief health officer in SA who advises people not to touch the footy at the afl (the pizza box lock down proponent), or the guy (Dr. Robert Malone) who invented mRNA vaccines. Dr Malone has been speaking about the lack of transparency in relation to vaccine risks. And to be clear, Dr Malone is not saying don’t get vaccinated. In his words:

“My concern is that I know there are risks. But we don’t have access to the data, and the data haven’t been captured rigorously enough so that we can accurately assess those risks – and therefore… we don’t really have the information that we need to make a reasonable decision.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.yahoo.com/amphtml/single-most-qualified-mrna-expert-173600060.html

RSM,
You’re doing it again. Robert Malone didn’t invent mRNA vaccines, he is one of many, many scientists who have worked on the technology over decades to get to the point we are now.

Although I agree with you that we should be vigilant over potential effects of the vaccines if new information arises. Fortunately the current data and science show that they are extremely safe and effective

As for the rest of your comment, I fully agree that politicians should be pressured to develop and release the overall plans out of the current cycle of lockdowns and restrictions, outlining the timing and rules around how much of the population needs to be vaccinated and how booster programs will be organised and run to manage variants if/when they emerge.

But all of this is inherently linked to a highly vaccinated population. Until that time, we will be stuck with the current situation.
B

Doing what again?

https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Jf1bApYAAAAJ&hl=en

In reference to current uk data re delta, you say it’s not peer reviewed and far too early to tell?

How long has the vaccine rollout been going?

I’m inclined to listen to the #scienceguy. He seems sciency.

RSM,
I know he claims he is the inventor of those types of vaccines, however if the most cursory look at the history of their development shows that the technologies involved were developed by multiple people and teams over decades. Putting something on your own bio doesnt make it true. Henry Ford wasn’t the “inventor” of Formula 1 racing cars either.

To claim one person involved is the “inventor” is nonsensical.

And as for “what are you doing again”. It is attempting to use a logical fallacy to give your position more merit. Attempting to claim that one person is the sole “inventor” of a technology and has unique insight into the situation does not give your position more weight when the actual scientific research does. Particularly when the vast majority of the scientific population including the scientists who actually invented and tested these specific vaccines is saying the opposite. Confirmation bias for your position isn’t proof.

“In reference to current uk data re delta, you say it’s not peer reviewed and far too early to tell?
How long has the vaccine rollout been going?”

I agree with you, more research is always needed on the impacts of the virus and the vaccines treating it.

However, there is a building body of real world scientific research showing the effectiveness of these vaccines in preventing serious illness and death from Covid, with low levels of negative side effects.

Countries with higher rates of Vaccination, like the UK are seeing significantly reduced impacts from the Delta strain, so the signs are promising.

Various sources identify Malone as the inventor.

Happy to accept he is not solely responsible. Clearly he is highly credentialed.

I referenced him given those credentials (admittedly his experience with pizza boxes and footballs may be disqualifying for a chief health officer role).

And he has expressed reasonable concerns.

And your point about the substance of what he says (and whether someone might reasonably act on that, is what? He’s not the inventor.? The data says the vaccines are safe?

The observational data can also be interpreted as saying the vaccines are riskier than covid for younger pepple.

For e.g. slight-of-hand that has the effect of making the vaccines seem safer. I understand that the US CDC’s data shows that for every 100,000 vaccines given to young people (under 25s), more than 25,000 will have temporary side effects that prevent them from “normal activities,” 700 will require medical care and 200 will be hospitalised. On the other hand, the CDC estimates that only about 50 out of 100,000 adolescents have EVER been hospitalised for Covid-related illness.

My point is this. One can reasonably hold concerns about the vaccines. Balancing those concerns with the risk of covid, one can reasonably make a personal choice not to vaccinate.

The assertion that those who chose not to vaccinate are responsible for lockdowns is itself a logical fallacy, (and plain and simply, coercion).

RSM,
And my point is you can’t just pick and choose to listen to the experts who agree with you. Malone makes some decent points about not ignoring the risks and being cautious to side effects, but he also has said and linked some very questionable things that have not been backed up by the scientific research that is coming out.

“My point is this. One can reasonably hold concerns about the vaccines. Balancing those concerns with the risk of covid, one can reasonably make a personal choice not to vaccinate.”

I fully agree with this.

“The assertion that those who chose not to vaccinate are responsible for lockdowns is itself a logical fallacy, (and plain and simply, coercion).”

Unfortunately, whether you like it or not, this is reality. Our government(s) do not have the guts to let this virus rip in an unvaccinated population. There would be far too many deaths and it would be political suicide. Of course it’s coercion but that is hardly unheard of in public health.

What they should be doing though is balancing the risks and benefits in all areas of policy, not just with a laser focus on COVID. They need to release a full plan for the way out of Covid restrictions that details the actual metrics they will use. The use of lockdowns in some states has clearly been heavy handed and far too cautious, without considering other impacts and consequences.

Dear RSM,

I’m a former CSM, of Infantry, once the Risk Manager for Medibank Private, and a Management Scientist from a mid-life crisis degree.

While I was studying for that I was tutoring the same subjects, which was a boon.

Lots of students just couldn’t / wouldn’t ‘get it’ , just like you can’t.

Like Chewy I am appalled by the manifest failure of the Federal Government on this problem.

My wife and I have both had our first Astrazenica shots, and will have the second early in August. I had a strong and painful reaction for ~ 48 hrs over 3 calendar days.

This wasn’t a suprise, as my immune system is like that.

Sorry what am i not getting re risk? (If you want a credential battle, i’ve done a lot of work with risk and data.)

The QLD CHO let the cat out of the bag yesterday re covid v. vaccination risk.

morbidly obese people even higher still.

People of normal weight under 40 are at essentially no risk of death from Covid.

Great if you are happy with your vaccination. My 82 year old dad is vaccinated and that makes sense to me.

As i’ve said. Vaccinate the vulnerable and open up.

And to return to a favourite theme of mine. Money quote-

“In fact, the findings suggest that for people under 60, weight loss would be the single best way to reduce the risk of Covid – probably even more than a vaccine (and with no side effects).”

https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/why-covid-is-like-aids

(Nb. ad hominem about the author (& there is lots re this guy) doesn’t address reporting about on research paper. Of course, if he’s misrepresenting dsta that’s a valid criticism)

RSM,
The QLD CHO statements yesterday were disgraceful. At the same time they are locking down millions of young people, she claims they aren’t at risk anyway so shouldn’t get the extremely low risk AZ vaccine. Partucularly when the advice on vaccination risk is not based on a fully open economy, where the COVID risk would dwarf any small risk from AZ or any of the other vaccines.

They can’t have it both ways.

The problem with your statement about vaccinating only the vulnerable is that it simply won’t work. These vaccines do not make you immune from the virus, they only lower the chance of you catching it, passing it on and of having serious disease from it.

Which means the only way an effective vaccination program will work is at the macro level if the vast majority of the population is vaccinated.

There is no other way to open us back up to the world that doesn’t result in a significant amount of deaths from COVID. Which the public jas shown they wont accept.

So due to that current public sentiment, it’s vaccinate or accept rolling lockdowns.

+1. On the plus side they’ll have a reason to do another choosecbr. Get in early folx

The problem is no one is getting vaccinated. You can get to about 50% of the population vaccinated but the last 10-20% will either never get it or take their sweet old time. There needs to come a point where we have 50% vaccinated and say enough is enough, it’s time to open up. If you haven’t gotten it yet, it’s on you. Letting this drag on is utterly ridiculous. It is against our freedoms to live like this indefinitely and there is no end to this at this rate.

And what of the fact when a mutation of the virus comes along that can evade the vaccine? Are we going to sit around in lock down until the entire population gets the booster shot? That’d be another 5 years minimum of living like this. We’ve got delta, delta plus, delta pro max, what is next? Think we have to face reality at this point. Yes it is scary and I’m scared as well but thinking back to our grandfathers that survived Spanish Flu, two world wars and a Great Depression makes me think we just have to bite the bullet eventually. We can’t live in this sheltered manner forever.

I don’t think many would argue against the fact that we eventually need to open up. We need to allow for enough time for everyone who WANTS to be vaccinated to have that opportunity. The vaccines will very likely reduce the severity of future strains to reduce the chance of mortality, and by that point it will be natural selection for those who refuse to vaccinate.

“15 days to flatten the curve”.

Last i looked it’s pretty flat.

Why should we have to stay home, have lockdowns, businesses go bust, many face financial ruin, weddings get cancelled, people can’t attend funerals etc etc just because some infected people want to travel here and bring the infection into our country? Those who want to travel to Australia should be subjected to a much harder and longer quarantine process and pay substantially higher fees for quarantine. It is selfish of these infected travellers to impose their problem on everyone else.

well said, absolutely sick of this nonsense. More people have died from loss of job, mental health issues than the virus. It’s been over a year, that’s long enough. Open the borders, keep the bars, pubs and cafes open and just have masks for goodness sake. India had a month of pain and they are back to normal. Their deaths per population weren’t even that many. Feel like these protracted lock downs in Australia are far worse.

The UK has half their population vaccinated, which is one of the reasons the fatality rate is now so low.

Until we are largely vaccinated, we won’t be opening up.

Yeah… India totally back to normal. You have your finger on the pulse sir.