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Labor packing up and moving out of Canberra?

johnboy 6 June 2013 88

For mine it was game over for Labor when Prime Minister Gillard made her “Captain’s Pick” of Nova Peris to establish her “legacy”. Obviously the PM had seen the writing on the wall before that.

Today the Business Spectator reports that Labor MPs are already moving out of their Parliament House offices in anticipation of electoral obliteration.

I don’t know if it’s related but Aldi appeared to be doing a brisk trade in shredders yesterday.

And even the country’s most high profile 457 visa holder is looking for a new job in Sydney:


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88 Responses to Labor packing up and moving out of Canberra?
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HiddenDragon HiddenDragon 10:25 am 10 Jun 13

Back on the original topic, I assume some, particularly those with a well-polished marshal’s baton in the knapsack, may be staying loyal to Julia because with her remaining as leader, the vote is likely to be so bad that Rudd may lose his seat. Two birds, one stone, and there are examples of a strong bounce-back after an electoral catastrophe for Labor – 1969, 1980, 1998. With increasingly difficult economic conditions as a background, and plenty of time bombs planted, it could still plausibly be a two-term strategy for a “decimated” Labor opposition.

bundah bundah 10:02 am 10 Jun 13

@dung

This is a snapshot of public polls re same sex marriage from which one could reasonably glean that should a referendum be held then it’s highly probable that same sex marriage would be sanctioned.

In June 2004, a survey conducted by Newspoll showed that 38% of respondents supported same-sex marriage, with 44% opposed and 18% undecided.

In June 2007, a Galaxy Poll conducted for advocacy group GetUp! measured the opinions of 1,100 Australians aged 16 and over.
57% of respondents supported same-sex marriage with 37% opposed and 6% undecided.
71% of respondents supported same-sex couples having the same legal entitlements as opposite-sex de facto couples.

In June 2009, a Galaxy Poll commissioned by Australian Marriage Equality measured the opinions of 1,100 Australians aged 16 and over.
60% of respondents supported the recognition of same-sex marriage, with 36% opposed and 4% undecided. Support was highest amongst those respondents who were intending to vote for the Australian Greens (82%) and who were aged 16–24 (74%). The majority of respondents from each state and each age bracket (except for the 50 and above category with 45% of respondents) were in support.
58% of respondents supported the recognition of foreign same-sex marriages in Australia, with 36% opposed and 5% undecided. Support was highest amongst those respondents who were intending to vote for the Australian Greens (74%) and who were aged 16–24 (73%). The majority of respondents from each state and each age bracket (except for the 50 and over category with 43% of respondents) were in support.

In October 2010, a Galaxy Poll commissioned by Australian Marriage Equality measured the opinions of 1,050 Australians aged 18 and over.
62% of respondents supported the recognition of same-sex marriage, with 33% opposed and 5% undecided. Support was highest amongst respondents who were intending to vote for the Australian Greens (81%), and who were aged 18–24 (80%). The majority of respondents from each state and each age bracket (except for the 50 and over category with 46% of respondents) were in support.
78% of respondents supported a conscience vote on the recognition of same-sex marriage, with 16% opposed and 6% undecided. Support was highest amongst those respondents aged 18–24 (84%), and who lived in South Australia (83%). The majority of respondents from each state and each age bracket were in support.

In March 2011, an Essential Media Poll suggested that support for same-sex marriage had fallen below 50% and opposition was up by 4%.

In July 2011 a survey of 543 people conducted by Roy Morgan measured the support for a number of positions on marriage.
68% of Australians support same-sex marriage
78% classify marriage as a ‘necessary’ institution, with only 22% opposing

In a late November 2011 Galaxy poll of over 1000 voters, 80% wanted Tony Abbott to allow the Liberal/National Coalition to participate in Labor’s same-sex marriage conscience vote, and that 76% of Coalition voters wanted a same-sex marriage conscience vote

In a February 2012 online poll of 1506 Australian adult members on the Nine Rewards website by Angus Reid Public Opinion, 49% of Australians said same-sex couples should be allowed to legally marry, 31% said they should be allowed to form civil unions, but not marry, and 14% said they should not have any kind of legal recognition. (The margin of error was +/- 2.5%.). No attempt was made to make the survey representative of the entire population, and the Nine Rewards website is associated with the Nine Network, an Australian television channel popular with older and more conservative viewers.

In early 2012 the House of Representatives conducted an online survey to provide a simple means for the public to voice their views on same-sex marriage and two bills which sought to legalise it, the Marriage Equality Amendment Bill 2012 and the Marriage Amendment Bill 2012. The survey closed on April 20, having received approximately 276,000 responses, including about 213,500 comments Of these responses, it was reported that 64.3% supported same-sex marriage, or approximately 177,600 people. The report acknowledged that “The online survey was not a statistically valid, random poll. Respondents were self-selected, in that they chose to participate if they wished.”

dungfungus dungfungus 9:19 am 10 Jun 13

Pork Hunt said :

dungfungus said :

“This is the Galaxy poll where a sample of 865 Australians aged between 18-69 distributed throughout Oz that were surveyed in August 2012”
Why aged between 18 – 69?
Why not 18 – 68 or 18 -70?
This is a joke, right?

They probably rang 865 people and for the record, asked each one how old they were. Apparently the youngest was 18 and the oldest 69. Not rocket science really.

The point I am trying to make is that the 70+ demographic in Australia is significant and excluding their opinion on this issue will skew the result accordingly.
In a referendum, everyone on the electoral roll will have an opportunity for a say and I believe there would be a resounding “No” to legalising same-sex marriage. The SSM lobby knows this and that is why they are trying to convice everyone otherwise without the matter being decided by a referendum which is the correct procedure when consitutional change is sought.
Personally, I don’t care what happens but it seems strange that only about 2% of our population can demand for a formal union which bestows no more rights than what a de-facto one gives now while hetrosexual couples are shying away from the institution of marriage altogether.
I think it is more about the “look at me” syndrone.

Pork Hunt Pork Hunt 8:14 am 10 Jun 13

dungfungus said :

“This is the Galaxy poll where a sample of 865 Australians aged between 18-69 distributed throughout Oz that were surveyed in August 2012”
Why aged between 18 – 69?
Why not 18 – 68 or 18 -70?
This is a joke, right?

They probably rang 865 people and for the record, asked each one how old they were. Apparently the youngest was 18 and the oldest 69. Not rocket science really.

HiddenDragon HiddenDragon 10:19 pm 09 Jun 13

dungfungus said :

HiddenDragon said :

Insiders this morning has kicked things along again – it could be sooner than 14 September or, then again, it could be later.

Interesting to hear some people saying it’s getting too late for a change – let us not forget what Labor did on 3 February 1983, while Malcolm was waiting on His Excellency’s pleasure.

I’ve forgotten so please remind me.

I believe Fraser sought an election on that day, thinking he would face Hayden but, hey presto, it turned out to be Hawke – and the rest is history.

Holditz Holditz 10:10 pm 09 Jun 13

dungfungus said :

I’ve forgotten so please remind me.

Bob Hawke was elected Party leader.

dungfungus dungfungus 8:42 pm 09 Jun 13

HiddenDragon said :

Insiders this morning has kicked things along again – it could be sooner than 14 September or, then again, it could be later.

Interesting to hear some people saying it’s getting too late for a change – let us not forget what Labor did on 3 February 1983, while Malcolm was waiting on His Excellency’s pleasure.

I’ve forgotten so please remind me.

dungfungus dungfungus 8:40 pm 09 Jun 13

“This is the Galaxy poll where a sample of 865 Australians aged between 18-69 distributed throughout Oz that were surveyed in August 2012”
Why aged between 18 – 69?
Why not 18 – 68 or 18 -70?
This is a joke, right?

Tetranitrate Tetranitrate 6:17 pm 09 Jun 13

Well, I was going to look into subscribing but the stupid O’Malleys beard ad is actually obscuring most of the menu when I go to ‘I want to’… I take it subscribe is somewhere in there?

DrKoresh DrKoresh 3:21 pm 09 Jun 13

poetix said :

Tetranitrate said :

Oh gees. My last post has a bunch of typos and whatnot. really wish there was an edit button here…

If you pay, you can edit. You can also rescind comments if you change your mind after calling someone an unter-bogan echidna-prick or whatnot, so you look both erudite and cool. You get at least twenty seconds to do that.

It’s tops.

Ah, I’ve wanted to be able to things like that since I signed-up, my lifestyle doesn’t always lead me to make measured and well-reasoned responses. Mebeh I’ll looking into getting a subscription for me birthday or something.

bundah bundah 2:24 pm 09 Jun 13

poetix said :

Pork Hunt said :

poetix said :

Tetranitrate said :

Oh gees. My last post has a bunch of typos and whatnot. really wish there was an edit button here…

If you pay, you can edit. You can also rescind comments if you change your mind after calling someone an unter-bogan echidna-prick or whatnot, so you look both erudite and cool. You get at least twenty seconds to do that.

It’s tops.

I always thought the pointy bits of echidnas were called spines…

I thought they were called ‘noses’.

This is starting to become a thorny issue…

HiddenDragon HiddenDragon 12:58 pm 09 Jun 13

Insiders this morning has kicked things along again – it could be sooner than 14 September or, then again, it could be later.

Interesting to hear some people saying it’s getting too late for a change – let us not forget what Labor did on 3 February 1983, while Malcolm was waiting on His Excellency’s pleasure.

poetix poetix 10:33 am 09 Jun 13

Pork Hunt said :

poetix said :

Tetranitrate said :

Oh gees. My last post has a bunch of typos and whatnot. really wish there was an edit button here…

If you pay, you can edit. You can also rescind comments if you change your mind after calling someone an unter-bogan echidna-prick or whatnot, so you look both erudite and cool. You get at least twenty seconds to do that.

It’s tops.

I always thought the pointy bits of echidnas were called spines…

I thought they were called ‘noses’.

Pork Hunt Pork Hunt 9:42 pm 08 Jun 13

poetix said :

Tetranitrate said :

Oh gees. My last post has a bunch of typos and whatnot. really wish there was an edit button here…

If you pay, you can edit. You can also rescind comments if you change your mind after calling someone an unter-bogan echidna-prick or whatnot, so you look both erudite and cool. You get at least twenty seconds to do that.

It’s tops.

I always thought the pointy bits of echidnas were called spines…

poetix poetix 8:39 pm 08 Jun 13

Tetranitrate said :

Oh gees. My last post has a bunch of typos and whatnot. really wish there was an edit button here…

If you pay, you can edit. You can also rescind comments if you change your mind after calling someone an unter-bogan echidna-prick or whatnot, so you look both erudite and cool. You get at least twenty seconds to do that.

It’s tops.

bikhet bikhet 7:46 pm 08 Jun 13

Tetranitrate said :

Oh gees. My last post has a bunch of typos and whatnot. really wish there was an edit button here…

Don’t worry about it. It still made more sense than some of the posts on RA.

Tetranitrate Tetranitrate 6:13 pm 08 Jun 13

Oh gees. My last post has a bunch of typos and whatnot. really wish there was an edit button here…

Masquara Masquara 5:26 pm 08 Jun 13

Darkfalz said :

Q&A has a proven track record of being hostile to conservatives, especially religious conservatives (unless they are muslim in which case they get a pass). .

You only had to see the rest of the panel cringing before the most self-righteous advocate of victimhood in the country, Linda Burney, to know that Q&A is no forum for an open exchange of ideas. While the panel this week were ALL too scared to come out and say, hey, many of us believe that, as we aren’t Indigenous, and don’t hold Indigenous spiritual beliefs, we can name the late Mr Yunupingu thanks – all over the rest of the media even lefties were openly saying his full name. That makes it evident that Q&A culture is left of left. And its panellists and audiences overtly mock Christianity while kowtowing before equally nonsensical religious beliefs on the part of Indigenous people. “Spirits beckoning the dead” or “resurrection” – we are as a society required to respect others’ beliefs, but aren’t required to practice others’ beliefs.

bikhet bikhet 5:25 pm 08 Jun 13

Tetranitrate said :

The only way to be certain would be a plebiscite of course – it’s pretty sad that neither party is willing to actually make that happen.

Not likely to happen. The pollies wouldn’t like a plebiscite as it’s a bit too close to democracy, rather than our current elective oligopoly. And I suspect that a referendum would go down – a double majority (voters and states) is hard to achieve unless both major political parties are fully onside – and the LGBT community wouldn’t like a defeated referendum.

Tetranitrate Tetranitrate 4:31 pm 08 Jun 13

bikhet said :

http://sru.soc.surrey.ac.uk/SRU8.html

http://www.uow.edu.au/student/attributes/statlit/modules/module1/biased.html

http://www.oesr.qld.gov.au/about-statistics/survey-methods/

A non-random sample of pages dealing with the problems of telephone samples.

My only issue here is to query the validity of the poll, and yes, I do apply the same degree of scepticism to all polls – and to popular usage of statistics in general.

Yeah, I noted that this is a bit of an issue. However polling still does fairly well as far as predicting election outcomes go, and establishing something like “a majority of adult Australians support gay marriage” is a lot easier than zero’ing on on voting intentions, where the confidence interval may actually be smaller than the likely margin of victory.

You’d need some pretty bad bias to overwhelm the sort of results polls tend to get on that issue (60% or more in favor) – and we’d really have to ask the question of “why do pre-election polls still turn out ok?” why would estimates of primary votes consistently fall within confidence intervals, but a much simpler yes/no question might not, given more or less the same sampling methodology?

I mean I do agree that there are issues with phone polling and all, but I don’t really see much reason to doubt the overall result on this, at least as far as there being a majority. The way some people ridicule the sample numbers of polls they don’t like is quite ridiculous too.
700 people is plenty and in all likelihood any systematic bias that may exist isn’t going to be helped by upping that. There’s not really any way that you can have a situation where you’re polling Australia wide and a sample of 700 or 800 is ‘not enough’ but some larger sample – 5000 or 10000 perhaps (but still small relative to the population) is much better. As I’m sure you’re aware that’s just not how it works.

The only way to be certain would be a plebiscite of course – it’s pretty sad that neither party is willing to actually make that happen.

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