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Land releases and affordable housing in Canberra?

By Watson - 14 June 2011 25

I looked at an affordable land and house package at Springbank Rise on the weekend. Then I decided I’d have another look to see if there is a chance that I could get a similar deal closer to where we live now.

I discovered that the government has a policy that states that 20% of all released blocks must be sold as “affordable housing” and that there is a plan to release more land in Watson in 2012-13.

So I called the LDA who told me that the land would be sold by auction as multi-unit sites and that they did not know what would be built on it (ie. units or townhouses).

And I couldn’t find anyone who could confirm this 20$ affordable houses policy and if that applies to all land released, so including this Watson release.

I’d rather not move that far away from my kid’s school and my work if there’s a chance that I could buy something closerby if I patiently wait.

Does anyone know anything about this?

To clarify, I’m not talking about the first home buyer affordable housing (only available in Bonner at the moment). I’ve bought a house before but don’t own one now.

What’s Your opinion?


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Land releases and affordable housing in Canberra?
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arescarti42 6:37 pm 15 Jun 11

Holden Caulfield said :

So you’re taking in a six month timeframe that concludes, at worst, any falls will be moderate. Against a good 15 years or so of generally solid growth.

This to counter my claim than waiting for house prices to drop is a poor medium-long term strategy (assuming any slide would need at least two years to meet most people’s criteria of what is affordable).

http://www.allhomes.com.au/ah/act/property-research/watson/121465110

According to that link there’s been two drops in the Median Property Price in Watson over the last 15 years; but an overwhelming upward trend (as would be the case in most Canberra suburbs I expect).

You never specified medium to long term. The OP said they were looking to wait until more land was released in 2012-2013. 1-2 years is short term, not medium to long term.

All I was pointing out is that if prices are currently falling at an accelerating rate, and the consensus among the relevant authorities is that prices will at best go side ways for another 6 months, why on earth would anyone buy a house now and not buy one for less in 6 months time having saved themselves 6 months worth of interest payments.

Without a doubt the last 15 years have seen phenomenal growth in property prices. Take a look at this graph from ABS/RBA/REIA data and tell me if you think the last 15 years were typical of historical house price growth in Australia, or were sustainable given the growth in incomes in the same period.

Holden Caulfield said :

And, even if prices do fall, they fall to what? Will they plummet to what would be considered “affordable housing” by today’s standards?

I don’t know, I can’t predict the future. I can tell you that a repeat of the last 15 years is physically impossible, that growth was fed by increasing debt and at the moment people are all maxed out. I personally think in the medium to long term at best we will see nominal prices go nowhere (real prices falling) whilst incomes play catch up.

Holden Caulfield 4:20 pm 15 Jun 11

arescarti42 said :

Holden Caulfield said :

Yes, it’s a well proven strategy in real estate: The longer you wait, the cheaper it gets.

[/sarcasm]

You are evidently not aware that that prices have been falling in every Australian capital city since late last year, and that all the relevant authorities (ABS, SQM Research, RP Data and all the major banks) expect at best flat-lining in the market and at worst moderate falls.

So you’re taking in a six month timeframe that concludes, at worst, any falls will be moderate. Against a good 15 years or so of generally solid growth.

This to counter my claim than waiting for house prices to drop is a poor medium-long term strategy (assuming any slide would need at least two years to meet most people’s criteria of what is affordable).

http://www.allhomes.com.au/ah/act/property-research/watson/121465110

According to that link there’s been two drops in the Median Property Price in Watson over the last 15 years; but an overwhelming upward trend (as would be the case in most Canberra suburbs I expect).

Let’s revisit this in a year or two and see how the trend has developed.

I would agree that the market in Canberra is priced too high in general terms, but this hasn’t happened overnight. It’s been bubbling away on that path for several years now. It shouldn’t be a surprise.

And, even if prices do fall, they fall to what? Will they plummet to what would be considered “affordable housing” by today’s standards?

Chop71 3:34 pm 15 Jun 11

Buckaroo_Banzai said :

Ah, thanks for that!

I decided they can keep their kit home boxes anyway. I’d rather buy a “renovator’s dream” in a cheaper established suburb.

Agreed, you can always do up a renovator’s dream, but a dog box will always be a dog box.
It’s just can you last the years to be able to afford to renovate? That’s the model I am working on.

Watson 1:41 pm 15 Jun 11

Buckaroo_Banzai said :

When I was looking at The Fair at Watson, the 20% ‘affordable’ ones were tiny 1 bedroom apartments. Which meets the criteria (which as far as I can tell was purely price based, and didn’t specify a minimum size).

Ah, thanks for that!

I decided they can keep their kit home boxes anyway. I’d rather buy a “renovator’s dream” in a cheaper established suburb.

GBT 1:01 pm 15 Jun 11

I belive the $328,000 refers to a house and land package, so at the very least a townhouse with some sort of backyard, so apartments wouldn’t qualify.

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