28 July 2013

Normal winter break for house sales in Canberra?

28 July 2013 | Nanouk

Dear Riotact people

I am trying to buy a house, but there is really nothing on the market these days… Is it the normal winter break? Do you know when it usually finishes? I have visited a not-so-bad house, but it is not exactly THE one. And maybe in a few weeks time, there will be tons of houses on the market…

Thanks for your help!

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thebrownstreak6911:55 am 20 Aug 13

Nanouk said :

I just thought I would add a little something to my own question… 🙂
(in case someone like myself likes digging up old threads…)

http://www.canberrahouseprices.com/ I found that website a few days ago, and that’s very useful, lots of interesting information in the comments too.

That website has some interesting chatter, but it’s fairly bearish.

My (regular) perusing of property websites for ACT property indicates that a lot of what is for sale at the moment is basically rubbish, and I wouldn’t buy most of it. It’s also pretty expensive rubbish. If we do take a hit next year I’ll probably buy a few well located but lower end properties to add to the portfolio.

Nanouk11:08 am 20 Aug 13

I just thought I would add a little something to my own question… 🙂
(in case someone like myself likes digging up old threads…)

http://www.canberrahouseprices.com/ I found that website a few days ago, and that’s very useful, lots of interesting information in the comments too.

Nanouk7:37 pm 02 Aug 13

Sorry, I forgot to thank you all for your help.
Masquara : I have googled “up yours” attitude, and it is not really what I meant. Sorry if I offended you, but as you have noticed afterwards I wasn’t the only one not knowing about winter-break-no-garden. So it wasn’t just plain silly question deserving condescension.

Jethro7:14 pm 29 Jul 13

I was reading this article in the Canberra Times today, which might be of some interest to you. It doesn’t really answer your question about houses for sales in winter, as it’s looking at data form the first 5 months of the year.

New home-buyer index figures show demand outstripped the number of homes for sale in the capital in the first five months of this year.

Of course, I would take anything written about the property market in the MSM with a grain of salt.

Masquara5:58 pm 29 Jul 13

Nanouk said :

Thanks Masquara for the condescension. I am obviously not the only one here who doesn’t know why/when/how there is that winter slump. But you can see that I have noticed it before you told me. So don’t worry. 🙂

If you apply that sort of “up yours” attitude to dealing with agents and sellers, you are sure to be disappointed…

Watson12:24 pm 29 Jul 13

Yep, I know plenty of people who are holding off either buying or selling (or both) because of the elections.

The houses that are on the market seem to be dropping in price a bit, but that’s just based on my random perusing of Allhomes, so pretty useless info. I predict a bit of a selling and buying frenzy soon after the elections. But because both demand and supply will increase, it shouldn’t make much of a difference to prices?

Good luck with your purchase!

davo10112:03 pm 29 Jul 13

mikten said :

A repeat of 1996 when house prices fell by 15-25%.

Really? I’m sqinting as hard as I can but I can’t see a drop; if anything house prices stopped falling in 1996.

Nanouk9:48 pm 28 Jul 13

Thanks everyone for your thoughts and advices.

Thanks Masquara for the condescension. I am obviously not the only one here who doesn’t know why/when/how there is that winter slump. But you can see that I have noticed it before you told me. So don’t worry. 🙂

Arescarti: maybe in the rest of Canberra, but not where I want to buy.

arescarti429:40 pm 28 Jul 13

Stock on market isn’t hugely seasonal, the biggest reductions tend to be during the Christmas holidays.

SQM Research provide monthly stock on market data for Canberra, which should give you an idea.

Current stock levels are currently about twice what they usually are, so you shouldn’t be having too much trouble finding what you want.

thebrownstreak699:23 pm 28 Jul 13

Canberra property has been slow for a couple of years now, taking a breather after a big run up, and prices are unlikely to go anywhere soon. That said, I doubt we’re in for a crash unless there’s a big cut of the PS. Given how much the current govt has already cut, I personally doubt the next one (regardless of Lab/Lib) will cut a huge amount more. Programs are already suffering and future govt will be under pressure to deliver.

mikten6:14 pm 28 Jul 13

Just be patient. There are several factors at play that will increase the supply of houses for sale dramatically in the coming months.
1. The already announced cuts of 800 senior public service positions. Many of those people, unable to get a job at the same level in Canberra, will pack up and leave town. Their redundancy won’t cover the outstanding mortgage. They will sell into a declining market for what they can get. No use keeping the property and renting it out. See point 6 – no-one to rent to.
2. The very soon to be announced further cuts to offset revenue shortfalls will further reduce public service numbers.
3. If Mr “cut-to-the-bone” Hockey becomes Treasurer and repeats the Howard decimation of the public service the numbers of houses for sale will increase as sacked public servants sell-up (or try to) and leave town. A repeat of 1996 when house prices fell by 15-25%.
4. If Labor retains power at the next election they will have to cut expenditure dramatically in the face of declining revenue. More public service jobs to go.
5. All of the public service jobs that disappear will also see the number of private sector support jobs reduce as well.
6. The huge reduction in jobs, both public and private, will see the demand for housing, both owned and rental fall. Landlords, unable to find tenants will drop rents or sell into a declining market. Prices will fall and keep on falling.
7.The cessation of the FHOG for existing houses from 01/09/2013 will see the price of existing houses fall as first-home buyers, who still have secure employment, won’t have those extra funds to fund their purchase. And there will be a considerable increase in houses for sale that will drive down prices.
8. I expect 2014 to be a bonanza for home-buyers, provided you can be 100% sure of keeping your job in a very depressed local economy. You won’t have much competition because I don’t expect there will be many people in a position to buy to live in the house and investors won’t be interested because there will be few people to rent to. Those presently renting could enjoy a big drop in rents. “Either drop our rent or we move and the property will stay empty”.
For those of us who stay I expect rates and other gov’t charges to increase at up to double present levels. The local gov’t will still have the same costs to meet but with a reduced tax-paying population.
On the plus side, and this is about the only plus, parking will be easier to find.

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