YouGov polling says if the election were held today, Peter Dutton would be close to moving into The Lodge. Photo: Michelle Kroll.
Peter Dutton is in a better position than Anthony Albanese to win this year’s election, but the Opposition Leader would need to convince a handful of crossbenchers to help him form government, according to the latest polling.
Pollster YouGov’s research released on Sunday (16 February) says if an election were held now, the Coalition could win 73 House of Representatives seats, with Labor only reaching 66.
Seventy-six seats are needed to form majority government, but minority government could be formed if the party with the most seats gets enough support from the crossbench to reach the required Lower House numbers.
That’s where Mr Dutton could come unstuck, however, with the Greens and a majority of independents (according to the current make-up) more likely to support Labor in minority government.
The modelling predicts a 78 per cent chance of the imminent election resulting in a hung parliament, with only a 19 per cent chance of the Coalition winning enough seats for a majority.
But Mr Dutton said if his party wins “a number of seats ahead of the Labor Party”, it would be incumbent on crossbenchers to support him to become prime minister.
“It would be unusual that if we were able to achieve 72, that there wouldn’t be a guarantee of supply and confidence from the crossbench,” he told Sky News.
He said he wouldn’t work with the Greens (nor they with him), and it was obvious which of the independents wouldn’t help the Coalition form government.
“We’ll talk with the crossbench, but I can promise you that it’s clear from their voting pattern. Kate Cheney, Zoe Daniel, Monique Ryan, 80 per cent of the time, they support the Greens,” Mr Dutton said.
“They will never come our way.”
He also said Labor had no chance of remaining in majority government, despite what the Prime Minister is saying.
“There is no serious commentator who says that Labor can form a majority government,” the Opposition Leader said.
“I think it’s at $15 on Sportsbet, so it’s just not happening.”
In a 60 Minutes interview, which aired on Sunday evening, Mr Dutton named Bob Katter, Dai Le and Allegra Spender as the current independents who might support the Coalition to form minority government.
“I think there’s at least a conversation to have,” he said.
Fellow independents Rebekha Sharkie and Helen Haines could also be persuaded to support a Coalition government if they retain their seats.
Ms Le is at risk of losing her NSW seat of Fowler to Labor, however, according to the YouGov modelling.
Labor could also win back the Queensland seats of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan from the Greens.
But the ALP could also lose 15 seats to the Coalition, according to the modelling, including in its heartland – even the NSW electorate of Werriwa (Gough Whitlam’s former seat), which it has held for almost a century, and the coal mining seat of Hunter that it has held since 1910.
According to the poll, the Coalition sits on 51.1 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, while Labor is at 48.9 per cent, a swing of 3.2 per cent since the 2022 election.
Local Government Minister and Member of Eden-Monaro Kristy McBain is predicted to lose her seat, along with fellow government minister Pat Conroy in Shortland.
But it’s not all good news for the Liberals and Nationals, however.
“The Coalition is projected to win none of the seats taken by ‘Teal’ independents in the last election,” the poll’s report states.
“This suggests the Coalition is experiencing challenges in winning support from the higher income, highly educated voters that dominate its former heartland seats in Sydney and Melbourne.
“Labor is slightly favoured to win Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith from the Greens and Fowler back from the Independent Dai Le.
“In these three ways, Labor success rests on its ability to finish ahead of the Coalition and then win on preferences.”
The survey is not a prediction of the election’s outcome but instead a projection of what could happen if the vote was held today.
“YouGov’s central projection – the most likely result – shows the Coalition on 73 seats, Labor on 66, Independents on 8, Greens on 1. KAP [Katter’s Australian Party] on 1 and the Centre Alliance 1,” it states.
“This would see Labor experiencing a net loss of 12 seats, with several traditional Labor electorates in working-class areas going to the Coalition.”
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